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Trump's Withdrawal a Miscalculation?

bsh1
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1/27/2016 5:18:38 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
https://www.yahoo.com...

^That is pretty much my opinion on the subject...
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TBR
Posts: 9,991
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1/27/2016 5:36:57 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/27/2016 5:18:38 AM, bsh1 wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com...

^That is pretty much my opinion on the subject...

He wins no matter the way he turns on this. Seriously. He does not need to get the air time, he does not need to get his name out. Fact is, it is a liability to get back on stage with the clown car.

No. He can sit at home and twitter about the debate, and get better results.
bsh1
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1/27/2016 5:39:24 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/27/2016 5:36:57 AM, TBR wrote:
At 1/27/2016 5:18:38 AM, bsh1 wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com...

^That is pretty much my opinion on the subject...

He wins no matter the way he turns on this. Seriously. He does not need to get the air time, he does not need to get his name out. Fact is, it is a liability to get back on stage with the clown car.

No. He can sit at home and twitter about the debate, and get better results.

Eh...
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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thett3
Posts: 14,338
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1/27/2016 5:45:11 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
This was my first impression too.

Bossy and I were talking and I told him I thought that this made Trump look weak and like a loser. He told me I'm not his audience.

And I think that's what it comes down to. Most people aren't paying any attention to this, and those that already have their minds made up. Here are what most people will see:

-A boring GOP debate with a large, emperor-god sized hole in it

-The other candidates having random discussions and taking jabs at each other while Trump raises money for the vets. Makes him look presidential.

It's like that one debate that he purposely showed up late to. Everyone else was already backstage and then when Trump arrived all the other candidates lined up to shake his hand. The only reason for this was because he was the last one to arrive but the reasoning didn't matter. Trump arrived and once more all the attention was on him. The president has arrived.

-The ratings for this debate will tank, and whatever event Trump puts together that will be covered by other networks will likely be competitive with it.

-It signals that the race is already over and that Trump has better things to do than squabble...like raise money for the vets.

Someone on reddit today commented that Trump has virtually complete control of the media. They said, specifically, that he literally chooses the topic that will dominate that weeks political news cycle. And they're right. And this final week before the caucus, Trump chose that that the topic for this weeks news cycle would be Trump, and while it initially would look bad to your average Joe Sixpack that Trump skipped the debate, it will be followed literally 2 seconds later with an explanation of what he did instead which makes him look good. Moreover any publicity > no publicity. He sucked all of the attention from his opponents just when they needed it most. He just killed any last minute surges that may have happened, and that's well worth a 2-3% dip in the polls from hardcore political junkies like us who got upset with it.

I also suspect that Fox had some kind of last minute trap set in an attempt to stump the Trump and he caught wind of it. So instead of hoping to escape whatever trap they had planned, Trump reframed the whole issue by skipping the debate.

I don't know if this will help Trump but the more I think about it the less I think it hurts him. The thought of a candidate skipping a debate is so foreign to us because we're the kind of people who watch them, but the average voter just doesn't, especially past the first few. Even I wouldn't watch them if it wasn't hilarious to see Trump curbstomp his opponents, and now that he isn't going I'm really not interested in seeing Rubio and Christie make stupid jabs at each other for the 6th time.
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
imabench
Posts: 21,210
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1/27/2016 5:56:37 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
Does this mean if Megyn Kelly runs for president that Trump would drop out of the race? Cause im all for trying it out
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

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Robkwoods
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1/27/2016 1:25:07 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/27/2016 5:18:38 AM, bsh1 wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com...

^That is pretty much my opinion on the subject...

http://www.dailywire.com...

I like this angle. More about getting back on the stage, less about Megyn Kelly.

*side note*
If he is not there and any of the other candidates even alludes to Trump, it is a win for him.
YYW
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1/27/2016 2:04:44 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
Virtually every aspect of that article is wrong. I know I'm kind of getting the reputation of being a Trump apologist here, so bearing that in mind, I'm going to explain the tactic.

Trump is riding high right now, and his poll numbers are both stable and overwhelmingly higher than every other candidate in the field. Despite this, the media continue to predict his imminent demise at every turn, in response to every unconventional thing he does, and they have been wrong, every single time. This is no different.

People like that Trump is shaking things up, and, more importantly, they like that he plays by his own rules. David Axelrod (former Obama adviser) explained this last night: it's the replica/remedy model in play. After two terms of an incumbent, voters go for the remedy, rather than the replica, of the previous administration.

As I've said ad nauseum before, Trump is the "remedy" to Obama (in that Trump is the opposite of Obama in every way that matters).

Here's what's going to happen, structurally, at least:

What Trump is doing, with whatever he's doing, is saying that he will not bow to Fox. People like that, and, what's happening here is that Trump is going to do something else where he's going to raise a whole bunch of money to give to Wounded Warriors or whatever, and other media outlets are going to pick that up (like, every single one of them) because they can not air the debate. So, everyone else is going to be isolated on FOX, but Trump is going to be the sole center of attention on every other network.

Here's what's going to happen, politically:

Voters are going to see, on one screen, all the other Republican candidates taking jabs at Trump, while he's not there, and they are going to look petty and stupid. Jeb Bush is going to continue to make a fool of himself by speaking on basically anything. Ted Cruz will continue to look like a snake in the grass. Marco will pretend to be more intelligent than he is. No one else matters. But, the point is that in addition to being in competition with all of the others for attention, they will only be on one network.

Trump will command the stage he's on, whatever it is. I have no idea what kind of a venue he'll have, or what kind of a crowd he gets. I think he'll get a couple of celebrities to come to his side, and it will be huge.

On Megyn Kelly:

She is pretty much irrelevant, because this is about FOX, generally, and not so much her in particular. She is a part of Trump's hatred of FOX, but she is not the only reason. The FOX tweet yesterday is what sealed the deal.

Kelly has not "defeated" Trump in any possible way, because she doesn't have that kind of power or influence. Her employer came to her defense, and that's it, and her employer totally has lost in that respect.

Trump is the unquestioned front-runner, and people who hate him because of how he operates (like the person who wrote that article) are incapable of understanding the broader significance of what he's doing, because they (1) are blinded by their emotions, and (2) have no sense of fortune, tact, or strategy.

Trump's strategy here is a winner. He's going to come out on top. Voters are going to see him raising money for charity, while everyone else is whining about him. It's going to discredit FOX, and every other contender, while making Trump look golden.
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kevin24018
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1/27/2016 2:13:16 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/27/2016 1:25:07 PM, Robkwoods wrote:
At 1/27/2016 5:18:38 AM, bsh1 wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com...

^That is pretty much my opinion on the subject...

http://www.dailywire.com...

I like this angle. More about getting back on the stage, less about Megyn Kelly.

*side note*
If he is not there and any of the other candidates even alludes to Trump, it is a win for him.

wouldn't surprise me if he buys air time, does a web thing or something all on his own to draw viewers away form the debate itself, that's what I would do.
YYW
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1/27/2016 2:13:22 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
Bottom line:

Trump wins by redefining the rules. While everyone else is "debating" (and by "debating" I mean "complaining about Trump") he is going to be doing meaningful things (i.e. raising money for charity).

Trump is a "doer" while everyone else is just talking.

Trump is leading the narrative, while everyone else is just doing the typical politician thing.

This is the best Republican primary I have ever seen.
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YYW
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1/27/2016 2:14:10 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
Trump is also knocking every other politician off their game, and, specifically, Ted Cruz. The Cruz campaign is freaking out right now because they don't know how to respond.
Tsar of DDO
thett3
Posts: 14,338
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1/27/2016 6:00:14 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
Apparently the entire thing was a big last minute effort to stump the Trump that he caught wind of: http://www.breitbart.com...

How could they think this would work? The centipede is a predator, people.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Midnight1131
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1/27/2016 10:58:55 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/27/2016 5:18:38 AM, bsh1 wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com...

^That is pretty much my opinion on the subject...

I feel at this point Trump's supporters will never withdraw their support of him. He's done everything a man can possibly do to kill a presidential campaign, and it's only increased his polling numbers.
#GaryJohnson2016
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bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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1/27/2016 11:51:32 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/27/2016 2:04:44 PM, YYW wrote:
Trump is the unquestioned front-runner, and people who hate him because of how he operates (like the person who wrote that article) are incapable of understanding the broader significance of what he's doing, because they (1) are blinded by their emotions, and (2) have no sense of fortune, tact, or strategy.

*sigh*
Live Long and Prosper

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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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Torton
Posts: 988
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1/27/2016 11:55:03 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/27/2016 2:13:22 PM, YYW wrote:
Bottom line:

Trump wins by redefining the rules. While everyone else is "debating" (and by "debating" I mean "complaining about Trump") he is going to be doing meaningful things (i.e. raising money for charity).

Trump is a "doer" while everyone else is just talking.

Trump is leading the narrative, while everyone else is just doing the typical politician thing.

This is the best Republican primary I have ever seen.

lol
imabench
Posts: 21,210
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1/28/2016 1:10:46 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
I honestly think this could sink him....

Trumps entire mantra has been Trump vs the World, which has worked very well up to this point, but now he is trying to fight the one network that routinely shines the lgiht on him, Fox News..... GOP voters almost exclusively get their "information" from Fox News, and im willing to bet that Trump's supporters dont trust any news source OTHER than Fox.... If Trump tries to pick a fight with Fox News, which it looks like he wants to do, then he's attacking the one news source that his voter base routinely gets their daily news from, the equivalent of biting the hand that feeds you....

If Trump loses Fox News, then I think the whole damn ship will sink
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
YYW
Posts: 36,282
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1/28/2016 2:29:06 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/27/2016 6:00:14 PM, thett3 wrote:
Apparently the entire thing was a big last minute effort to stump the Trump that he caught wind of: http://www.breitbart.com...

How could they think this would work? The centipede is a predator, people.

"The centipede"?
Tsar of DDO
brontoraptor
Posts: 11,685
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1/28/2016 2:29:14 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/27/2016 5:18:38 AM, bsh1 wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com...

^That is pretty much my opinion on the subject...

Normally I would say yes to it being a miscaculation, but the current voter environment is looking for someone to shake up.Washington because Washington sucks and people are sick of Washington. Trump is the only candidate (in their minds) who represents any serious persona of someone who might actually go after Washington. There are 2 things that make this more believable coming from him.

1)He is already rich. So people perceive that money won't influence him in the way it has other politicians who are plain and simply bought off by lobbyists.

2)He says anything and everything in his mind. People are amused and interested in someone who just goes after anybody. He, with this move, just makes it more believable that he might do it to congress. People want him to do it to congress. People want him to expose and attack congress. Unless it's all an act, it looks like he actually would go after them when he thinks he sees b.s.
"What Donald Trump is doing is representing the absolute heartbreak, and anger, and frustration at a government gone mad."

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thett3
Posts: 14,338
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1/28/2016 2:31:34 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/28/2016 2:29:06 AM, YYW wrote:
At 1/27/2016 6:00:14 PM, thett3 wrote:
Apparently the entire thing was a big last minute effort to stump the Trump that he caught wind of: http://www.breitbart.com...

How could they think this would work? The centipede is a predator, people.

"The centipede"?

Haha there's a hilarious series of vids called "Can't Stump The Trump" that always opens with...well just watch it yourself. But this is why Trump is known as the centipede. He also retweeted this video btw
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
stealspell
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1/28/2016 2:45:44 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/27/2016 5:18:38 AM, bsh1 wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com...

^That is pretty much my opinion on the subject...

He's just trying to paint himself as a rebel. It's part of his shtick. His fans or Trumpeters will eat it up.
walker_harris3
Posts: 273
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1/28/2016 2:52:35 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/28/2016 2:31:34 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 1/28/2016 2:29:06 AM, YYW wrote:
At 1/27/2016 6:00:14 PM, thett3 wrote:
Apparently the entire thing was a big last minute effort to stump the Trump that he caught wind of: http://www.breitbart.com...

How could they think this would work? The centipede is a predator, people.

"The centipede"?

Haha there's a hilarious series of vids called "Can't Stump The Trump" that always opens with...well just watch it yourself. But this is why Trump is known as the centipede. He also retweeted this video btw



Oh God, I just died watching that video
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,250
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1/28/2016 2:54:54 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/28/2016 2:31:34 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 1/28/2016 2:29:06 AM, YYW wrote:
At 1/27/2016 6:00:14 PM, thett3 wrote:
Apparently the entire thing was a big last minute effort to stump the Trump that he caught wind of: http://www.breitbart.com...

How could they think this would work? The centipede is a predator, people.

"The centipede"?

Haha there's a hilarious series of vids called "Can't Stump The Trump" that always opens with...well just watch it yourself. But this is why Trump is known as the centipede. He also retweeted this video btw



Is it true he is scheduling his event at the same time as the debates?
AdamEsk
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1/28/2016 6:44:37 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
Is it true he is scheduling his event at the same time as the debates?

That's what I heard. Why not, right?
Greyparrot
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1/28/2016 3:03:59 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/28/2016 6:44:37 AM, AdamEsk wrote:
Is it true he is scheduling his event at the same time as the debates?

That's what I heard. Why not, right?

Fox just got stumped.
UtherPenguin
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1/28/2016 3:17:27 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/27/2016 5:36:57 AM, TBR wrote:
At 1/27/2016 5:18:38 AM, bsh1 wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com...

^That is pretty much my opinion on the subject...

He wins no matter the way he turns on this. Seriously. He does not need to get the air time, he does not need to get his name out. Fact is, it is a liability to get back on stage with the clown car.

No. He can sit at home and twitter about the debate, and get better results.

I feel like the entirety of the Trump campaign was all a joke that just went way too far.
"Praise Allah."
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TBR
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1/28/2016 3:29:26 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/28/2016 3:17:27 PM, UtherPenguin wrote:
At 1/27/2016 5:36:57 AM, TBR wrote:
At 1/27/2016 5:18:38 AM, bsh1 wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com...

^That is pretty much my opinion on the subject...

He wins no matter the way he turns on this. Seriously. He does not need to get the air time, he does not need to get his name out. Fact is, it is a liability to get back on stage with the clown car.

No. He can sit at home and twitter about the debate, and get better results.

I feel like the entirety of the Trump campaign was all a joke that just went way too far.

I'm sure he had no real plan to be where he is right now. He is just riding his own wave at this point.
Greyparrot
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1/28/2016 5:30:44 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/28/2016 3:29:26 PM, TBR wrote:

I'm sure he had no real plan to be where he is right now. He is just riding his own wave at this point.

Riding the polls, hang ten!
thett3
Posts: 14,338
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1/28/2016 6:27:09 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
If anyone would like to donate to the veterans, here's the link to Trumps event: https://www.donaldtrumpforvets.com...
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right