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Recent polls and Presidential successors

1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,619
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1/28/2016 8:45:37 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Everyone is talking about the latest Sanders vs. Clinton poll, and which 4-5 point advantage is actually correct.

I'm more interested in Obama at the moment.

Four polls on his approval rating have been conducted in the past week - all with similar sample sizes. The results were a plus-4, minus-2, plus-1, and tie. So in the past week, Obama may have moved to a net-approval rating. That's good for him.

Interesting to me is the statsitics on Presidents who left office with net-approval ratings, and the subsequent elections. The last time a President left office with an approval rating that was a net-positive where his Party won the subsequent election was Ronald Reagan with 1988. Before that, if my stats are correct - no President (in the history of available polling data) has left office naturally with a net-approval rating where their planned successor won the subsequent election.

Thoughts on that?
"It's the PUPPY IN THE SKY!" -TBR's kid

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TBR
Posts: 9,991
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1/28/2016 8:52:24 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 1/28/2016 8:45:37 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Everyone is talking about the latest Sanders vs. Clinton poll, and which 4-5 point advantage is actually correct.

I'm more interested in Obama at the moment.

Four polls on his approval rating have been conducted in the past week - all with similar sample sizes. The results were a plus-4, minus-2, plus-1, and tie. So in the past week, Obama may have moved to a net-approval rating. That's good for him.

Interesting to me is the statsitics on Presidents who left office with net-approval ratings, and the subsequent elections. The last time a President left office with an approval rating that was a net-positive where his Party won the subsequent election was Ronald Reagan with 1988. Before that, if my stats are correct - no President (in the history of available polling data) has left office naturally with a net-approval rating where their planned successor won the subsequent election.

Thoughts on that?

I don't think it means anything, really. If you take Clinton as an example, Gore won the popular vote (we all know the mess). Ford (Nixon) to Carter, well, that doesn't say much. Just not enough data really.
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,619
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1/28/2016 8:54:58 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 1/28/2016 8:52:24 PM, TBR wrote:
At 1/28/2016 8:45:37 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Everyone is talking about the latest Sanders vs. Clinton poll, and which 4-5 point advantage is actually correct.

I'm more interested in Obama at the moment.

Four polls on his approval rating have been conducted in the past week - all with similar sample sizes. The results were a plus-4, minus-2, plus-1, and tie. So in the past week, Obama may have moved to a net-approval rating. That's good for him.

Interesting to me is the statsitics on Presidents who left office with net-approval ratings, and the subsequent elections. The last time a President left office with an approval rating that was a net-positive where his Party won the subsequent election was Ronald Reagan with 1988. Before that, if my stats are correct - no President (in the history of available polling data) has left office naturally with a net-approval rating where their planned successor won the subsequent election.

Thoughts on that?

I don't think it means anything, really. If you take Clinton as an example, Gore won the popular vote (we all know the mess). Ford (Nixon) to Carter, well, that doesn't say much. Just not enough data really.

I'm absolutely not saying that this is legitimate to indicate a victor - the pattern just interested me.
"It's the PUPPY IN THE SKY!" -TBR's kid

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imabench
Posts: 21,909
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1/28/2016 8:55:14 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 1/28/2016 8:45:37 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Everyone is talking about the latest Sanders vs. Clinton poll, and which 4-5 point advantage is actually correct.

I'm more interested in Obama at the moment.

Four polls on his approval rating have been conducted in the past week - all with similar sample sizes. The results were a plus-4, minus-2, plus-1, and tie. So in the past week, Obama may have moved to a net-approval rating. That's good for him.

Interesting to me is the statsitics on Presidents who left office with net-approval ratings, and the subsequent elections. The last time a President left office with an approval rating that was a net-positive where his Party won the subsequent election was Ronald Reagan with 1988. Before that, if my stats are correct - no President (in the history of available polling data) has left office naturally with a net-approval rating where their planned successor won the subsequent election.

Thoughts on that?

As cool as this is, he's ping-ponged between almost breaking even and just below even several times, so im hesitant to see if this 50-50 approval trend continues http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
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