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Could Trump win a General?

bsh1
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1/30/2016 2:32:54 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
The Iowa Caucuses are just around the bend, but it's never too early to think about November. If Trump is the nominee, do you think he could win a general? If so, why? If not, why not?

Also, keep in mind the various possible scenarios Trump could be facing, including Hillary-Trump, Sanders-Trump, Hillary-Trump-Bloomberg, and Sanders-Trump-Bloomberg.

Please add your thoughts.
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bballcrook21
Posts: 4,468
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1/30/2016 2:35:48 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 2:32:54 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The Iowa Caucuses are just around the bend, but it's never too early to think about November. If Trump is the nominee, do you think he could win a general? If so, why? If not, why not?

Also, keep in mind the various possible scenarios Trump could be facing, including Hillary-Trump, Sanders-Trump, Hillary-Trump-Bloomberg, and Sanders-Trump-Bloomberg.

Please add your thoughts.

Would be hard for him to win the election since he has the speaking skills of a 3rd grader who didn't read the book.
If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand. - Friedman

Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. -Friedman

Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program. - Friedman

Society will never be free until the last Democrat is strangled with the entrails of the last Communist.
1harderthanyouthink
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1/30/2016 2:37:29 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 2:35:48 AM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:32:54 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The Iowa Caucuses are just around the bend, but it's never too early to think about November. If Trump is the nominee, do you think he could win a general? If so, why? If not, why not?

Also, keep in mind the various possible scenarios Trump could be facing, including Hillary-Trump, Sanders-Trump, Hillary-Trump-Bloomberg, and Sanders-Trump-Bloomberg.

Please add your thoughts.

Would be hard for him to win the election since he has the speaking skills of a 3rd grader who didn't read the book.

His speaking skills surpass most of the field.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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bballcrook21
Posts: 4,468
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1/30/2016 2:37:56 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 2:37:29 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:35:48 AM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:32:54 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The Iowa Caucuses are just around the bend, but it's never too early to think about November. If Trump is the nominee, do you think he could win a general? If so, why? If not, why not?

Also, keep in mind the various possible scenarios Trump could be facing, including Hillary-Trump, Sanders-Trump, Hillary-Trump-Bloomberg, and Sanders-Trump-Bloomberg.

Please add your thoughts.

Would be hard for him to win the election since he has the speaking skills of a 3rd grader who didn't read the book.

His speaking skills surpass most of the field.

Sad.
If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand. - Friedman

Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. -Friedman

Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program. - Friedman

Society will never be free until the last Democrat is strangled with the entrails of the last Communist.
bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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1/30/2016 2:39:21 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 2:35:48 AM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:32:54 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The Iowa Caucuses are just around the bend, but it's never too early to think about November. If Trump is the nominee, do you think he could win a general? If so, why? If not, why not?

Also, keep in mind the various possible scenarios Trump could be facing, including Hillary-Trump, Sanders-Trump, Hillary-Trump-Bloomberg, and Sanders-Trump-Bloomberg.

Please add your thoughts.

Would be hard for him to win the election since he has the speaking skills of a 3rd grader who didn't read the book.

"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public." - H.L. Mencken

Clearly, this maxim seems not just to apply to businesses, but also to GOP voters in elections. Don't count Trump out for that reason...even in a general.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

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bballcrook21
Posts: 4,468
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1/30/2016 2:42:17 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 2:39:21 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:35:48 AM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:32:54 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The Iowa Caucuses are just around the bend, but it's never too early to think about November. If Trump is the nominee, do you think he could win a general? If so, why? If not, why not?

Also, keep in mind the various possible scenarios Trump could be facing, including Hillary-Trump, Sanders-Trump, Hillary-Trump-Bloomberg, and Sanders-Trump-Bloomberg.

Please add your thoughts.

Would be hard for him to win the election since he has the speaking skills of a 3rd grader who didn't read the book.

"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public." - H.L. Mencken

Clearly, this maxim seems not just to apply to businesses, but also to GOP voters in elections. Don't count Trump out for that reason...even in a general.

The right supports the boisterous, the left supports the dumb guy that wants to give away free stuff.
If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand. - Friedman

Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. -Friedman

Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program. - Friedman

Society will never be free until the last Democrat is strangled with the entrails of the last Communist.
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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1/30/2016 2:43:53 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 2:37:56 AM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:37:29 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:35:48 AM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:32:54 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The Iowa Caucuses are just around the bend, but it's never too early to think about November. If Trump is the nominee, do you think he could win a general? If so, why? If not, why not?

Also, keep in mind the various possible scenarios Trump could be facing, including Hillary-Trump, Sanders-Trump, Hillary-Trump-Bloomberg, and Sanders-Trump-Bloomberg.

Please add your thoughts.

Would be hard for him to win the election since he has the speaking skills of a 3rd grader who didn't read the book.

His speaking skills surpass most of the field.

Sad.

In terms of orators, I'd put a top tier of Clinton-Cruz-Sanders-Trump, a second-tier of O'Malley-Rubio-Paul, and a third-tier of Kasich-Bush-Christie-Carson.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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1/30/2016 2:45:21 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 2:42:17 AM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:39:21 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:35:48 AM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:32:54 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The Iowa Caucuses are just around the bend, but it's never too early to think about November. If Trump is the nominee, do you think he could win a general? If so, why? If not, why not?

Also, keep in mind the various possible scenarios Trump could be facing, including Hillary-Trump, Sanders-Trump, Hillary-Trump-Bloomberg, and Sanders-Trump-Bloomberg.

Please add your thoughts.

Would be hard for him to win the election since he has the speaking skills of a 3rd grader who didn't read the book.

"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public." - H.L. Mencken

Clearly, this maxim seems not just to apply to businesses, but also to GOP voters in elections. Don't count Trump out for that reason...even in a general.

The right supports the boisterous, the left supports the dumb guy that wants to give away free stuff.

Bernie Sanders isn't dumb, and his policies aren't either. The right supports the real policy idiots--Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and so forth.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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1harderthanyouthink
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1/30/2016 3:07:13 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
No, and that's more of a message on the GOP's standing to win than Trump's.

Just looking at the map - the statistical likelihood of the GOP winning is effectively nil. Especially when you have someone who is as reviled among Hispanics as Trump, combined with the black vote for the Democrats - Trump would have to win about 70% of the white vote.

For comparison's sake, 27% of Hispanic voters voted Romney. 11% of Hispanic likely voters recently polled had a positive view of Trump. Statistically, the only candidates that could pull out a GOP win (before we even get to the electoral map) are Bush and Rubio - who are the only GOP candidates to poll with over 20% of Hispanics saying they have a positive view of them.

Women voted 55-44 in 2012 for Obama-Romney. If Clinton, especially, ran against Trump, I'd be surprised to see him pull out any more than 40%.

Independents voted 45-50 in 2012 for Obama-Romney. For a populist playing off of hatred for party establishment, this could work both ways for Trump. However, couple that with some of his statements that may drive away independents, and the Republican advantage could vanish there.

Self-described moderates voted 56-41 in 2012. If he faces Clinton, he'll get totally fvcked here. If he faces Sanders, he may not get more votes than Romney - but Sanders won't get quite as much as Obama.

Again, he'd have to pull out an utterly ridiculous white vote. If he faces Sanders, who has supreme young white vote, any advantage he has among whites could vanish with a higher college-aged turnout - especially when the stakes are Trump becoming President.

And then we go to the Electoral College.

Using states that have stayed consistent since 2000, Florida is a must-win for Trump. When you consider how blue Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico are becoming, the GOP must win Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina. Then if you make Iowa or New Hampshire blue, then the GOP has to win every remaining state - Indiana is an easy red win. But Florida, Iowa/New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia...

---

tl;dr

The GOP has no chance, let alone Trump.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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bsh1
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1/30/2016 3:21:17 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
This is interesting, too.

https://www.yahoo.com...
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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thett3
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1/30/2016 3:35:50 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
Trump is the GOP's only hope. He'll turn out millions of working class whites in light blue states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Minnesota. There's also limited evidence that Trump would do particularly well with black voters which is something I personally believe could happen.

Trump will run poorly with Hispanics but here's the thing: they are heavily concentrated in states that are basically locks for either party. The only swing states with large Hispanic populations are Florida (which is filled with Cubans who are a very strange case) Colorado and Nevada. Nevada is not even really a swing state anymore. So Trump loses a chance at Colorado, but gives the GOP basically its only chance to pick up other states. Moreover it's really unlikely that any GOP candidate would win Colorado this time around anyway given their positions on marijuana.

Trump expands the map, every other candidate fights on the same playing field Romney did except the demographic situation has deteriorated even further.

And before anyone starts citing current polls, the head to head polls mean nothing until Trump secures the nomination--which he will.
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1Percenter
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1/30/2016 4:38:33 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 2:32:54 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The Iowa Caucuses are just around the bend, but it's never too early to think about November. If Trump is the nominee, do you think he could win a general? If so, why? If not, why not?

Also, keep in mind the various possible scenarios Trump could be facing, including Hillary-Trump, Sanders-Trump, Hillary-Trump-Bloomberg, and Sanders-Trump-Bloomberg.

Please add your thoughts.

If Trump makes it to the general election, I predict he will win in a landslide. He hasn't even begun focusing on Hillary/Bernie yet. His apathy and downright disrespect for our current political system is the same attitude most of America has for it. People will turn out in droves to vote for him.
1Percenter
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1/30/2016 5:46:37 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 3:35:50 AM, thett3 wrote:
Trump is the GOP's only hope. He'll turn out millions of working class whites in light blue states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Minnesota. There's also limited evidence that Trump would do particularly well with black voters which is something I personally believe could happen.


Wait, isn't this the kind of pragmatism that got us into this mess in the first place? Even if Trump did bring more people to the polls, the question you have to ask is, is the quantity of the voters more important than the quality of the voters? Trump, just like Obama, is aiming his political campaign towards the uneducated masses. The principled conservatives would either have to support Cruz or refuse to vote for Trump in the general election.

It could be like Romney in 2012 where he actually had millions less people come out and vote for him than McCain had vote for him in 2008. The Evangalicals and a lot of other social conservatives just ended up staying home.
1harderthanyouthink
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1/30/2016 5:55:15 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 5:46:37 AM, 1Percenter wrote:
At 1/30/2016 3:35:50 AM, thett3 wrote:
It could be like Romney in 2012 where he actually had millions less people come out and vote for him than McCain had vote for him in 2008. The Evangalicals and a lot of other social conservatives just ended up staying home.

Well, he literally had a million more people vote for him.
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Maikuru
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1/30/2016 6:49:26 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
Trump loses to Clinton and Sanders, and has a sliver more of a chance in a Sanders/Bloomberg/Trump scenario. From his announcement, Bloomberg doesn't look like he'll run if Clinton gets the nom.
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bsh1
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1/30/2016 6:50:47 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 6:49:26 AM, Maikuru wrote:
Trump loses to Clinton and Sanders, and has a sliver more of a chance in a Sanders/Bloomberg/Trump scenario. From his announcement, Bloomberg doesn't look like he'll run if Clinton gets the nom.

I agree. I think Bloomberg won't run if an establishment republican or Clinton gets the nom.
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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

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be_diligent
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1/30/2016 11:02:39 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 2:37:29 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:35:48 AM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:32:54 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The Iowa Caucuses are just around the bend, but it's never too early to think about November. If Trump is the nominee, do you think he could win a general? If so, why? If not, why not?

Also, keep in mind the various possible scenarios Trump could be facing, including Hillary-Trump, Sanders-Trump, Hillary-Trump-Bloomberg, and Sanders-Trump-Bloomberg.

Please add your thoughts.

Would be hard for him to win the election since he has the speaking skills of a 3rd grader who didn't read the book.

His speaking skills surpass most of the field.

It's not so much the "talk," it's the walk. He obviously has been very successful in his own life.

I doubt that he will bow to the Saudi prince. He won't be apologizing to other nations for the "terrible," USA. Regan Never did that. It's a huge betrayal.

The media seems to be scared of him with their blatant attacks. That says A LOT.

Most politicians are nothing but talk. If Trump is true to what he says he is definitely the man for POTUS.

I don't care about his speaking skills, I do care about action.

I know a lot of people with much greater speaking skills who are not nearly as successful as Trump. Look at the current president...He talks well but there's nothing but steam coming out of his mouth and ears.
Peepette
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1/30/2016 6:53:22 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 3:07:13 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
No, and that's more of a message on the GOP's standing to win than Trump's.

Just looking at the map - the statistical likelihood of the GOP winning is effectively nil. Especially when you have someone who is as reviled among Hispanics as Trump, combined with the black vote for the Democrats - Trump would have to win about 70% of the white vote.

For comparison's sake, 27% of Hispanic voters voted Romney. 11% of Hispanic likely voters recently polled had a positive view of Trump. Statistically, the only candidates that could pull out a GOP win (before we even get to the electoral map) are Bush and Rubio - who are the only GOP candidates to poll with over 20% of Hispanics saying they have a positive view of them.

Women voted 55-44 in 2012 for Obama-Romney. If Clinton, especially, ran against Trump, I'd be surprised to see him pull out any more than 40%.

Independents voted 45-50 in 2012 for Obama-Romney. For a populist playing off of hatred for party establishment, this could work both ways for Trump. However, couple that with some of his statements that may drive away independents, and the Republican advantage could vanish there.

Self-described moderates voted 56-41 in 2012. If he faces Clinton, he'll get totally fvcked here. If he faces Sanders, he may not get more votes than Romney - but Sanders won't get quite as much as Obama.

Again, he'd have to pull out an utterly ridiculous white vote. If he faces Sanders, who has supreme young white vote, any advantage he has among whites could vanish with a higher college-aged turnout - especially when the stakes are Trump becoming President.

You might have something here. With the prospect of Trump becoming President it's likely not only the youth would come out, but also previously apathetic voters. It will be a hands down win for the Dems.


And then we go to the Electoral College.

Using states that have stayed consistent since 2000, Florida is a must-win for Trump. When you consider how blue Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico are becoming, the GOP must win Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina. Then if you make Iowa or New Hampshire blue, then the GOP has to win every remaining state - Indiana is an easy red win. But Florida, Iowa/New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia...


For the most part historically speaking, the electoral college votes along party lines. Considering the GOP's distaste for Trump, I would not be surprise to see an upset here, voting for an alternative GOP running mate; if, and that's real big IF, Trump achieves any kind of close race with his opponent.


The GOP has no chance, let alone Trump.
TBR
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1/30/2016 7:15:09 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 1:57:42 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
It's ok, Trump cant win the nomination...whoops...

It's ok, Trump cant win the general...whoops...


I sense a pattern...

What pattern? Trump has not won anything yet, and I highly doubt he will be the nominee
Buddamoose
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1/31/2016 1:00:38 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 1:57:42 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
It's ok, Trump cant win the nomination...whoops...

It's ok, Trump cant win the general...whoops...


I sense a pattern...

in fairness, he hasn't won the nomination yet. But the biggest factor is that he is the most consistent candidate in polling. Trump supporters aren't going to flip, and that should be obvious to anyone. Meanwhile, as nominees drop out, some of their base goes to other candidates, some to Trump. Honestly, I see him getting the Republican nomination when its all said and done.

Then we start exactly the process that was in the beginning of this cycle, which is many people going, "Trump can't possibly win" as he steadily gains steam until we reach the election, and at that point, yes, it is very possible he could win. Again, Trump supporters once they are supporters are consistent. They aren't the type to change their mind. So its like a, "once he has them, he has them, period, type deal." That is a powerful thing for a candidate to be able to do.
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Buddamoose
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1/31/2016 1:08:10 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
There is honestly no other Democrat candidate besides Sanders that honestly has that kind of effect on supporters. Clinton just doesn't have that zest, that appeal that Sanders brings to the table. Alot of farther left democrats are just, meh, about her, and some of those will probably just choose not to vote, even if it means a Democrat doesn't get elected POTUS.
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Skepsikyma
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1/31/2016 1:21:45 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 6:53:22 PM, Peepette wrote:
For the most part historically speaking, the electoral college votes along party lines. Considering the GOP's distaste for Trump, I would not be surprise to see an upset here, voting for an alternative GOP running mate; if, and that's real big IF, Trump achieves any kind of close race with his opponent.

If they did that, the Republican party would completely implode. It would no longer be able to function.
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1harderthanyouthink
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1/31/2016 1:41:31 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/31/2016 1:21:45 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 1/30/2016 6:53:22 PM, Peepette wrote:
For the most part historically speaking, the electoral college votes along party lines. Considering the GOP's distaste for Trump, I would not be surprise to see an upset here, voting for an alternative GOP running mate; if, and that's real big IF, Trump achieves any kind of close race with his opponent.

If they did that, the Republican party would completely implode. It would no longer be able to function.

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And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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