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Will Trump win Iowa?

bsh1
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1/30/2016 2:37:10 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
I am honestly not sure one way or another, but this analysis is interesting:

The Iowa GOP contest has gone from a near-tie between Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) earlier this week to an average seven-point advantage for Trump. An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out Thursday morning shows that 76 percent of Trump"s supporters are firmly committed to him, while 58 percent of Cruz"s are sure of their choice....However, pollsters are finding that Trump"s support is strongest among those who haven"t participated in caucuses in the past. Monmouth: "Based on past voting history and voters" stated intentions to attend this year"s caucuses, the current poll estimates turnout will be 170,000 voters, which would far surpass the 122,000 record GOP turnout from four years ago. Increasing the poll"s turnout projection to 200,000 voters widens Trump"s lead to 32% over 21% for Cruz, with Rubio at 16% and Carson at 9%. Decreasing the turnout projection to 130,000 voters, which would still be a record level, puts the race in a tie at 26% for Trump and 26% for Cruz, with Rubio at 15% and Carson at 12%" [http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

Thoughts? Comments? Reactions? Will he or will he not win Iowa, and why do you think that?
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bsh1
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1/30/2016 3:30:34 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
Bump
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thett3
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1/30/2016 3:40:13 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
Trump will win Iowa. He will probably run the table and win every state.

Contrary to the predictions that Trump would crash and burn at the end the opposite happened. He's surged everywhere in the past few weeks. What this means is that, per usual, I was right. Since at least October when Republicans were asked who they thought the eventual nominee would be they overwhelmingly chose Trump. The aura of inevitability is extremely important and undecided voters tend to consolidate around the candidate they view as the likely winner.
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Greyparrot
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1/30/2016 4:09:40 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 2:37:10 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I am honestly not sure one way or another, but this analysis is interesting:

The Iowa GOP contest has gone from a near-tie between Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) earlier this week to an average seven-point advantage for Trump. An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out Thursday morning shows that 76 percent of Trump"s supporters are firmly committed to him, while 58 percent of Cruz"s are sure of their choice....However, pollsters are finding that Trump"s support is strongest among those who haven"t participated in caucuses in the past. Monmouth: "Based on past voting history and voters" stated intentions to attend this year"s caucuses, the current poll estimates turnout will be 170,000 voters, which would far surpass the 122,000 record GOP turnout from four years ago. Increasing the poll"s turnout projection to 200,000 voters widens Trump"s lead to 32% over 21% for Cruz, with Rubio at 16% and Carson at 9%. Decreasing the turnout projection to 130,000 voters, which would still be a record level, puts the race in a tie at 26% for Trump and 26% for Cruz, with Rubio at 15% and Carson at 12%" [http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

Thoughts? Comments? Reactions? Will he or will he not win Iowa, and why do you think that?

http://i.imgur.com...
bsh1
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1/30/2016 4:10:18 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 4:09:40 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 1/30/2016 2:37:10 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I am honestly not sure one way or another, but this analysis is interesting:

The Iowa GOP contest has gone from a near-tie between Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) earlier this week to an average seven-point advantage for Trump. An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out Thursday morning shows that 76 percent of Trump"s supporters are firmly committed to him, while 58 percent of Cruz"s are sure of their choice....However, pollsters are finding that Trump"s support is strongest among those who haven"t participated in caucuses in the past. Monmouth: "Based on past voting history and voters" stated intentions to attend this year"s caucuses, the current poll estimates turnout will be 170,000 voters, which would far surpass the 122,000 record GOP turnout from four years ago. Increasing the poll"s turnout projection to 200,000 voters widens Trump"s lead to 32% over 21% for Cruz, with Rubio at 16% and Carson at 9%. Decreasing the turnout projection to 130,000 voters, which would still be a record level, puts the race in a tie at 26% for Trump and 26% for Cruz, with Rubio at 15% and Carson at 12%" [http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

Thoughts? Comments? Reactions? Will he or will he not win Iowa, and why do you think that?

http://i.imgur.com...

Lol.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


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RyuuKyuzo
Posts: 3,074
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1/30/2016 4:17:43 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 4:11:31 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 1/30/2016 3:56:16 AM, RyuuKyuzo wrote:
I'm very confident he will.

http://i.imgur.com...

I'm going with my gut on this.
If you're reading this, you're awesome and you should feel awesome.
PetersSmith
Posts: 5,848
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1/30/2016 5:04:20 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 2:37:10 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I am honestly not sure one way or another, but this analysis is interesting:

The Iowa GOP contest has gone from a near-tie between Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) earlier this week to an average seven-point advantage for Trump. An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out Thursday morning shows that 76 percent of Trump"s supporters are firmly committed to him, while 58 percent of Cruz"s are sure of their choice....However, pollsters are finding that Trump"s support is strongest among those who haven"t participated in caucuses in the past. Monmouth: "Based on past voting history and voters" stated intentions to attend this year"s caucuses, the current poll estimates turnout will be 170,000 voters, which would far surpass the 122,000 record GOP turnout from four years ago. Increasing the poll"s turnout projection to 200,000 voters widens Trump"s lead to 32% over 21% for Cruz, with Rubio at 16% and Carson at 9%. Decreasing the turnout projection to 130,000 voters, which would still be a record level, puts the race in a tie at 26% for Trump and 26% for Cruz, with Rubio at 15% and Carson at 12%" [http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

Thoughts? Comments? Reactions? Will he or will he not win Iowa, and why do you think that?

Trump will win the world.
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TBR
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1/30/2016 4:01:30 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 3:40:13 AM, thett3 wrote:
Trump will win Iowa. He will probably run the table and win every state.

Contrary to the predictions that Trump would crash and burn at the end the opposite happened. He's surged everywhere in the past few weeks. What this means is that, per usual, I was right. Since at least October when Republicans were asked who they thought the eventual nominee would be they overwhelmingly chose Trump. The aura of inevitability is extremely important and undecided voters tend to consolidate around the candidate they view as the likely winner.

You don't honestly think he is going to win every state do you?
thett3
Posts: 14,363
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1/30/2016 4:58:14 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 4:01:30 PM, TBR wrote:
At 1/30/2016 3:40:13 AM, thett3 wrote:
Trump will win Iowa. He will probably run the table and win every state.

Contrary to the predictions that Trump would crash and burn at the end the opposite happened. He's surged everywhere in the past few weeks. What this means is that, per usual, I was right. Since at least October when Republicans were asked who they thought the eventual nominee would be they overwhelmingly chose Trump. The aura of inevitability is extremely important and undecided voters tend to consolidate around the candidate they view as the likely winner.

You don't honestly think he is going to win every state do you?

In the primary, yes. I think he'll have a serious chance to sweep them all if he wins Iowa, or at worst lose only a few states.

If he wins Iowa he'll likely go 4-0 in the early states. He'll be heading into super Tuesday undefeated, and most of the states voting on super Tuesday are favorable to him. Here's the list of which states are voting on March 1st:

*Alaska Presidential Preference Caucus
*Alabama Primary
*Arkansas Primary
Colorado Precinct Caucuses
*Georgia Primary
Louisiana District Caucuses
*Massachusetts Primary
*Minnesota Precinct Caucuses
*Oklahoma Primary
*Tennessee Primary
*Texas Primary
*Virginia Primary
*Vermont Primary
*Wyoming Precinct Caucuses and Straw Poll

(http://www.thegreenpapers.com...)

And here's the wikipedia article that collects statewide polls for the primary: https://en.wikipedia.org...

Check out all that pink. All of them have been polled in the last 6 months except for Wyoming. Trump is clearly leading (above the margin of error) in all of them except for Texas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Colorado. Louisiana and Colorado haven't been polled since Carson had his surge so it's incredibly unlikely that he is still leading there. In Minnesota Trump was within the margin of error in the last poll and other recent polls had him clearly ahead. The only state he's clearly losing is Texas, but if Cruz loses in Iowa it's likely that his campaign will collapse and most of his voters will go to Trump.

On top of the fact that he's already leading in almost all of those states, if he goes 4-0 in the early states he'll have some serious momentum and an aura of invincibility that will likely give him a sweep. After super Tuesday there will have been 18 contests...if Trump goes 18-0, or 17-1, or 16-2 in them...would you take seriously an argument that he isn't going to be the nominee?

At this point the only way Trump isn't the nominee is if he loses Iowa and all of his dedicated supporters who wait out in the cold for hours and hours to see the guy say "oh he lost in the state that only predicts the winner half the time, screw this guy". It's an increasingly desperate narrative.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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1/30/2016 5:42:48 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 4:58:14 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 4:01:30 PM, TBR wrote:
At 1/30/2016 3:40:13 AM, thett3 wrote:
Trump will win Iowa. He will probably run the table and win every state.

Contrary to the predictions that Trump would crash and burn at the end the opposite happened. He's surged everywhere in the past few weeks. What this means is that, per usual, I was right. Since at least October when Republicans were asked who they thought the eventual nominee would be they overwhelmingly chose Trump. The aura of inevitability is extremely important and undecided voters tend to consolidate around the candidate they view as the likely winner.

You don't honestly think he is going to win every state do you?

In the primary, yes. I think he'll have a serious chance to sweep them all if he wins Iowa, or at worst lose only a few states.

If he wins Iowa he'll likely go 4-0 in the early states. He'll be heading into super Tuesday undefeated, and most of the states voting on super Tuesday are favorable to him. Here's the list of which states are voting on March 1st:

*Alaska Presidential Preference Caucus
*Alabama Primary
*Arkansas Primary
Colorado Precinct Caucuses
*Georgia Primary
Louisiana District Caucuses
*Massachusetts Primary
*Minnesota Precinct Caucuses
*Oklahoma Primary
*Tennessee Primary
*Texas Primary
*Virginia Primary
*Vermont Primary
*Wyoming Precinct Caucuses and Straw Poll

(http://www.thegreenpapers.com...)

And here's the wikipedia article that collects statewide polls for the primary: https://en.wikipedia.org...

Check out all that pink. All of them have been polled in the last 6 months except for Wyoming. Trump is clearly leading (above the margin of error) in all of them except for Texas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Colorado. Louisiana and Colorado haven't been polled since Carson had his surge so it's incredibly unlikely that he is still leading there. In Minnesota Trump was within the margin of error in the last poll and other recent polls had him clearly ahead. The only state he's clearly losing is Texas, but if Cruz loses in Iowa it's likely that his campaign will collapse and most of his voters will go to Trump.

On top of the fact that he's already leading in almost all of those states, if he goes 4-0 in the early states he'll have some serious momentum and an aura of invincibility that will likely give him a sweep. After super Tuesday there will have been 18 contests...if Trump goes 18-0, or 17-1, or 16-2 in them...would you take seriously an argument that he isn't going to be the nominee?

At this point the only way Trump isn't the nominee is if he loses Iowa and all of his dedicated supporters who wait out in the cold for hours and hours to see the guy say "oh he lost in the state that only predicts the winner half the time, screw this guy". It's an increasingly desperate narrative.

I gave my state by state predictions the other day, and it does not have Trump even winning the nomination. I will accept when/if I am wrong, and it is possible for him to sweep the nomination but highly doubtful.

Lets see where we are next week.
imabench
Posts: 21,222
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1/30/2016 5:59:08 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
I thought Trump had Iowa locked up after getting Palin's endorsement, but after he skipped the last debate and Ted Cruz entered Trumps shoes as the guy everyone else shat on, now im not so sure.

Furthermore, Nate Silver, the guy who nailed every state race for the 2012 election and the results of the 2014 midterm results, predicts that Ted Cruz will pull out a win in Iowa as well:

http://www.youngcons.com...

Considering how Santorum surged to win Iowa in 2012 after Evangelical voters showed up in force, Im starting to think that Cruz will steal Iowa if everything goes well, since Evangelicals have shown Cruz a lot of love and since Trump misplayed his hand with the debate.

Im still sure that Trump will nail New Hampshire and likely South Carolina as well, but Iowa is up for grabs
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thett3
Posts: 14,363
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1/30/2016 6:09:25 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 5:42:48 PM, TBR wrote:
At 1/30/2016 4:58:14 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 4:01:30 PM, TBR wrote:
At 1/30/2016 3:40:13 AM, thett3 wrote:
Trump will win Iowa. He will probably run the table and win every state.

Contrary to the predictions that Trump would crash and burn at the end the opposite happened. He's surged everywhere in the past few weeks. What this means is that, per usual, I was right. Since at least October when Republicans were asked who they thought the eventual nominee would be they overwhelmingly chose Trump. The aura of inevitability is extremely important and undecided voters tend to consolidate around the candidate they view as the likely winner.

You don't honestly think he is going to win every state do you?

In the primary, yes. I think he'll have a serious chance to sweep them all if he wins Iowa, or at worst lose only a few states.

If he wins Iowa he'll likely go 4-0 in the early states. He'll be heading into super Tuesday undefeated, and most of the states voting on super Tuesday are favorable to him. Here's the list of which states are voting on March 1st:

*Alaska Presidential Preference Caucus
*Alabama Primary
*Arkansas Primary
Colorado Precinct Caucuses
*Georgia Primary
Louisiana District Caucuses
*Massachusetts Primary
*Minnesota Precinct Caucuses
*Oklahoma Primary
*Tennessee Primary
*Texas Primary
*Virginia Primary
*Vermont Primary
*Wyoming Precinct Caucuses and Straw Poll

(http://www.thegreenpapers.com...)

And here's the wikipedia article that collects statewide polls for the primary: https://en.wikipedia.org...

Check out all that pink. All of them have been polled in the last 6 months except for Wyoming. Trump is clearly leading (above the margin of error) in all of them except for Texas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Colorado. Louisiana and Colorado haven't been polled since Carson had his surge so it's incredibly unlikely that he is still leading there. In Minnesota Trump was within the margin of error in the last poll and other recent polls had him clearly ahead. The only state he's clearly losing is Texas, but if Cruz loses in Iowa it's likely that his campaign will collapse and most of his voters will go to Trump.

On top of the fact that he's already leading in almost all of those states, if he goes 4-0 in the early states he'll have some serious momentum and an aura of invincibility that will likely give him a sweep. After super Tuesday there will have been 18 contests...if Trump goes 18-0, or 17-1, or 16-2 in them...would you take seriously an argument that he isn't going to be the nominee?

At this point the only way Trump isn't the nominee is if he loses Iowa and all of his dedicated supporters who wait out in the cold for hours and hours to see the guy say "oh he lost in the state that only predicts the winner half the time, screw this guy". It's an increasingly desperate narrative.

I gave my state by state predictions the other day, and it does not have Trump even winning the nomination. I will accept when/if I am wrong, and it is possible for him to sweep the nomination but highly doubtful.

Lets see where we are next week.

It's possible that the polls are overestimating Trumps support. We'll have to see.

Where were your predictions? Who do you think is most likely to win?
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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1/30/2016 6:10:01 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 5:59:08 PM, imabench wrote:

http://www.youngcons.com...


True story...the same dorks who made this vid are the guys who run that site:
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
imabench
Posts: 21,222
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1/30/2016 6:31:27 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 6:10:01 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 1/30/2016 5:59:08 PM, imabench wrote:

http://www.youngcons.com...


True story...the same dorks who made this vid are the guys who run that site:

my support for abortion has grown
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015