Total Posts:15|Showing Posts:1-15
Jump to topic:

2016 Senate elections

1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,100
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/30/2016 9:33:52 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
The Presidential election is not the only thing that matters. There are several seats up for reelection in te Senate that are not 100% safe.

For the Democrats: Nevada, Colorado

On the bright side of the Colorado race, this would be Michael Bennet's third term, but only his second election (appointed to vacant seat after '08 election). He only won by about 2% in 2010 - though that was a midterm with a lower turnout than a Presidential year. The libertarian party is also putting a candidate forth - which could (would) help him in his bid for reelection.

Harry Reid is retiring and that puts Nevada much more in the air than is comfortable, but trends in Nevada show it moving more consistently blue - and thus a Democrat being elected is at least moderately likely.

For the Republicans: Florida, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Arizona, Louisiana, Indiana

Very likely to flip: Illinois, Wisconsin

I don't think anyone can honestly disagree with that. Illinois, though, I'd put at a 100% chance of flipping with Wisconsin only at about 90%.

Very likely to hold: Indiana, Louisiana

Indiana isn't the most predictable place, but I'd say the probability for Indiana reelecting the GOP would be 100% *if* the incumbent was running. Since he's not, that is downgraded somewhat. I'd put that at an 85% chance of holding.

Louisiana elected a Democratic governor recently. Regardless of the competency of the GOP candidate there, it's been recently shown to not be impossible for the Democrats there. Also, the incumbent is not running. Again, that could hurt the GOP. I'd put the chance of a hold at 80%.

Moderately likely to hold: Arizona, Missouri

Missouri 100% depends on turnout. They have one Democratic senator, and a Democratic governor. This is not the safest, but it depends on turnout. The chance of a hold, in my best estimate, is about 60%.

Arizona is not solidly red anymore. Their House delegation in 2014 was 5-4 in favor of Republicans. However, this is John McCain running yet again for his sixth term, who is soon to turn 80 years old. I'd put the likelihood of a hold at about 65-70%, *but* there is more to be said. If Democrats have a brain, they will be fighting tooth and nail to try flipping Arizona this year - which would accelerate the permanent move to either a swing state or even a western blue hold. I would keep that in mind.

Unsafe: Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina

For Florida, let's start with the bad news for the GOP. Marco Rubio is not seeking reelection. He has one of the highest favaorability ratings among Hispanics in the GOP. That already puts this at an extra advantage for Democrats on top of a higher Presidential turnout year. Bill Nelson, for example, was elected in 2000 and continues to hold their other Senate seat as a Democrat. Rubio won in '10. And more bad news: Donald J. Trump. If Hispanics are turned off enough from the GOP because or him, this could become the most likely of these states to flip. I put it at a 40% chance of holding.

New Hampshire is a state where the difference between 55% and 45% is in the thousands. The other Senator, again, is a Democrat who was elected in a Presidential year. I put this at a 45% chance of holding.

Pennsylvania is a must win for Democrats. The current Senate holding there is 1-1, but it's important for Pennsylvania to have extra focus put into it to halt the movements towards the GOP. I put it at a 40% chance of holding, when considering that Toomey won in 2010 by a 2.02% margin with a midterm-level turnout.

Ohio is a tad prone to fidgeting. Portman won with 57% of the vote in '10, yet they reelected Democrat Sherrod Brown in the horrid '14 midterm for Democrats with a 51-45 margin. Ohio is as unpredictable as ever, and thus I say it has a 50% chance of holding.

North Carolina is less likely to flip, but isn't very sure to hold. Incumbent Richard Burr won in 2004 with just a 4.6% margin, and was reelected in '10 with a margin over 10%. But due to it being a light red state in a Presidential year, I only put it at a 55% chance of holding.

---

Final thoughts:

According to my predictions and estimates on the likelihoods of holds and flips, it would be most likely to see a 50-50 Senate or a 51-49 Senate majority for Democrats - assuming independents continue to caucus with Democrats (they will). But nothing is for sure in these days' election cycles.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,070
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/30/2016 10:15:48 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 9:33:52 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
The Presidential election is not the only thing that matters. There are several seats up for reelection in te Senate that are not 100% safe.

For the Democrats: Nevada, Colorado

On the bright side of the Colorado race, this would be Michael Bennet's third term, but only his second election (appointed to vacant seat after '08 election). He only won by about 2% in 2010 - though that was a midterm with a lower turnout than a Presidential year. The libertarian party is also putting a candidate forth - which could (would) help him in his bid for reelection.

Harry Reid is retiring and that puts Nevada much more in the air than is comfortable, but trends in Nevada show it moving more consistently blue - and thus a Democrat being elected is at least moderately likely.

For the Republicans: Florida, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Arizona, Louisiana, Indiana

Very likely to flip: Illinois, Wisconsin

I don't think anyone can honestly disagree with that. Illinois, though, I'd put at a 100% chance of flipping with Wisconsin only at about 90%.

Very likely to hold: Indiana, Louisiana

Indiana isn't the most predictable place, but I'd say the probability for Indiana reelecting the GOP would be 100% *if* the incumbent was running. Since he's not, that is downgraded somewhat. I'd put that at an 85% chance of holding.

Louisiana elected a Democratic governor recently. Regardless of the competency of the GOP candidate there, it's been recently shown to not be impossible for the Democrats there. Also, the incumbent is not running. Again, that could hurt the GOP. I'd put the chance of a hold at 80%.

Moderately likely to hold: Arizona, Missouri

Missouri 100% depends on turnout. They have one Democratic senator, and a Democratic governor. This is not the safest, but it depends on turnout. The chance of a hold, in my best estimate, is about 60%.

Arizona is not solidly red anymore. Their House delegation in 2014 was 5-4 in favor of Republicans. However, this is John McCain running yet again for his sixth term, who is soon to turn 80 years old. I'd put the likelihood of a hold at about 65-70%, *but* there is more to be said. If Democrats have a brain, they will be fighting tooth and nail to try flipping Arizona this year - which would accelerate the permanent move to either a swing state or even a western blue hold. I would keep that in mind.

Unsafe: Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina

For Florida, let's start with the bad news for the GOP. Marco Rubio is not seeking reelection. He has one of the highest favaorability ratings among Hispanics in the GOP. That already puts this at an extra advantage for Democrats on top of a higher Presidential turnout year. Bill Nelson, for example, was elected in 2000 and continues to hold their other Senate seat as a Democrat. Rubio won in '10. And more bad news: Donald J. Trump. If Hispanics are turned off enough from the GOP because or him, this could become the most likely of these states to flip. I put it at a 40% chance of holding.

A good reason why he should drop out of the Presidential race now. He's much more useful to the party as a senator than as a presidential candidate.

New Hampshire is a state where the difference between 55% and 45% is in the thousands. The other Senator, again, is a Democrat who was elected in a Presidential year. I put this at a 45% chance of holding.

Pennsylvania is a must win for Democrats. The current Senate holding there is 1-1, but it's important for Pennsylvania to have extra focus put into it to halt the movements towards the GOP. I put it at a 40% chance of holding, when considering that Toomey won in 2010 by a 2.02% margin with a midterm-level turnout.

Ohio is a tad prone to fidgeting. Portman won with 57% of the vote in '10, yet they reelected Democrat Sherrod Brown in the horrid '14 midterm for Democrats with a 51-45 margin. Ohio is as unpredictable as ever, and thus I say it has a 50% chance of holding.

North Carolina is less likely to flip, but isn't very sure to hold. Incumbent Richard Burr won in 2004 with just a 4.6% margin, and was reelected in '10 with a margin over 10%. But due to it being a light red state in a Presidential year, I only put it at a 55% chance of holding.

---

Final thoughts:

According to my predictions and estimates on the likelihoods of holds and flips, it would be most likely to see a 50-50 Senate or a 51-49 Senate majority for Democrats - assuming independents continue to caucus with Democrats (they will). But nothing is for sure in these days' election cycles.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,100
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/30/2016 10:29:26 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 10:15:48 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/30/2016 9:33:52 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Unsafe: Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina

For Florida, let's start with the bad news for the GOP. Marco Rubio is not seeking reelection. He has one of the highest favaorability ratings among Hispanics in the GOP. That already puts this at an extra advantage for Democrats on top of a higher Presidential turnout year. Bill Nelson, for example, was elected in 2000 and continues to hold their other Senate seat as a Democrat. Rubio won in '10. And more bad news: Donald J. Trump. If Hispanics are turned off enough from the GOP because or him, this could become the most likely of these states to flip. I put it at a 40% chance of holding.

A good reason why he should drop out of the Presidential race now. He's much more useful to the party as a senator than as a presidential candidate.

Indeed. However, he announced in April last year that he would not seek reelection, and it doesn't look like he's giving up on the Presidency.

On the note of his future, this could hurt him a lot. He may be out of office for 8 years before there is a viable year for him to become President. He will still have the criticism of his experience, and he won't have as much of a benefit of age.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
imabench
Posts: 21,206
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/31/2016 12:45:18 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/30/2016 10:15:48 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/30/2016 9:33:52 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:

Unsafe: Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina

For Florida, let's start with the bad news for the GOP. Marco Rubio is not seeking reelection. He has one of the highest favaorability ratings among Hispanics in the GOP. That already puts this at an extra advantage for Democrats on top of a higher Presidential turnout year. Bill Nelson, for example, was elected in 2000 and continues to hold their other Senate seat as a Democrat. Rubio won in '10. And more bad news: Donald J. Trump. If Hispanics are turned off enough from the GOP because or him, this could become the most likely of these states to flip. I put it at a 40% chance of holding.

A good reason why he should drop out of the Presidential race now. He's much more useful to the party as a senator than as a presidential candidate.

Same thing with Rand Paul, whose Senate seat is also up for grabs in 2016. He'll have to drop out of the presidential race sooner or later if he wants to stay in government at all ,and a lot of people want him to drop out so that he can hang onto that senate seat, rather then risk losing both the presidency and a seat as senator.

Though to be fair, this is Kentucky we're talking about. Its going to vote Red no matter who runs, both on the presidential level and on the senate level
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,448
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/31/2016 12:53:15 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
i think this might be looking at that outcome a bit too favorably, but, it is true that democrat voters turn out more for general elections which the POTUS is up for grabs. Midterm elections tend to favor a more republican turnout. So yeah, its likely you see a near 50/50 split, then two years from now it turns back into a republican majority.

Beware though, if another Democrat is elected POTUS, especially Sanders, that will cause the GOP voters to push back even more so, and that republican majority in the midterms prolly gets even more so drastic. If a republican is elected POTUS, imho, you prolly see that near 50/50 maintained through the midterms.
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
imabench
Posts: 21,206
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/31/2016 1:01:32 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/31/2016 12:53:15 AM, Buddamoose wrote:
i think this might be looking at that outcome a bit too favorably, but, it is true that democrat voters turn out more for general elections which the POTUS is up for grabs. Midterm elections tend to favor a more republican turnout. So yeah, its likely you see a near 50/50 split, then two years from now it turns back into a republican majority.

Beware though, if another Democrat is elected POTUS, especially Sanders, that will cause the GOP voters to push back even more so, and that republican majority in the midterms prolly gets even more so drastic. If a republican is elected POTUS, imho, you prolly see that near 50/50 maintained through the midterms.

I actually am not sure it would sit at 50-50. A sh** ton of seats up for grabs in 2018 (which will be the midterms after the next president is picked) are held by democrats in states that usually vote republican. If the next GOP president does turn out to be a great uniter who also is pretty moderate, the GOP could quite feasibly get a chokehold in the senate because there is plenty of opportunity to get some gains

https://en.wikipedia.org...
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,448
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/31/2016 1:03:42 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/31/2016 1:01:32 AM, imabench wrote:
At 1/31/2016 12:53:15 AM, Buddamoose wrote:
i think this might be looking at that outcome a bit too favorably, but, it is true that democrat voters turn out more for general elections which the POTUS is up for grabs. Midterm elections tend to favor a more republican turnout. So yeah, its likely you see a near 50/50 split, then two years from now it turns back into a republican majority.

Beware though, if another Democrat is elected POTUS, especially Sanders, that will cause the GOP voters to push back even more so, and that republican majority in the midterms prolly gets even more so drastic. If a republican is elected POTUS, imho, you prolly see that near 50/50 maintained through the midterms.

I actually am not sure it would sit at 50-50. A sh** ton of seats up for grabs in 2018 (which will be the midterms after the next president is picked) are held by democrats in states that usually vote republican. If the next GOP president does turn out to be a great uniter who also is pretty moderate, the GOP could quite feasibly get a chokehold in the senate because there is plenty of opportunity to get some gains

https://en.wikipedia.org...

solid points. However, I think there might be some complacency from the GOP voter base if they get the presidency, and maintain around a 50/50 senate and house. While the Democrat voter base does exactly what happened the past two midterms, they come out en masse to counter that POTUS election in the midterms.
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,100
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/31/2016 2:03:46 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/31/2016 12:45:18 AM, imabench wrote:
At 1/30/2016 10:15:48 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/30/2016 9:33:52 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:

Unsafe: Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina

For Florida, let's start with the bad news for the GOP. Marco Rubio is not seeking reelection. He has one of the highest favaorability ratings among Hispanics in the GOP. That already puts this at an extra advantage for Democrats on top of a higher Presidential turnout year. Bill Nelson, for example, was elected in 2000 and continues to hold their other Senate seat as a Democrat. Rubio won in '10. And more bad news: Donald J. Trump. If Hispanics are turned off enough from the GOP because or him, this could become the most likely of these states to flip. I put it at a 40% chance of holding.

A good reason why he should drop out of the Presidential race now. He's much more useful to the party as a senator than as a presidential candidate.

Same thing with Rand Paul, whose Senate seat is also up for grabs in 2016. He'll have to drop out of the presidential race sooner or later if he wants to stay in government at all ,and a lot of people want him to drop out so that he can hang onto that senate seat, rather then risk losing both the presidency and a seat as senator.

He already filed for re-election.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,100
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/31/2016 2:08:59 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/31/2016 1:01:32 AM, imabench wrote:
At 1/31/2016 12:53:15 AM, Buddamoose wrote:
i think this might be looking at that outcome a bit too favorably, but, it is true that democrat voters turn out more for general elections which the POTUS is up for grabs. Midterm elections tend to favor a more republican turnout. So yeah, its likely you see a near 50/50 split, then two years from now it turns back into a republican majority.

Beware though, if another Democrat is elected POTUS, especially Sanders, that will cause the GOP voters to push back even more so, and that republican majority in the midterms prolly gets even more so drastic. If a republican is elected POTUS, imho, you prolly see that near 50/50 maintained through the midterms.

I actually am not sure it would sit at 50-50. A sh** ton of seats up for grabs in 2018 (which will be the midterms after the next president is picked) are held by democrats in states that usually vote republican. If the next GOP president does turn out to be a great uniter who also is pretty moderate, the GOP could quite feasibly get a chokehold in the senate because there is plenty of opportunity to get some gains

https://en.wikipedia.org...

The Dems, arguably, have safer holds in most of their states next election than the GOP this year.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,100
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/31/2016 2:49:28 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
My range for this would be (Democrats-Republicans) between 49-51 and 55-45.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,100
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
2/21/2016 5:21:35 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
How will the Supreme Court affect this?
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
imabench
Posts: 21,206
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
2/21/2016 6:25:46 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/21/2016 5:21:35 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
How will the Supreme Court affect this?

I dont see it having that much impact. Other headlines will come up that will bury Scalia's death into memory, and thats before we even get out of the primary's. Once we hit the general election, Scalia's death will seem as 'old news' as David Bowies
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,100
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
2/21/2016 6:28:36 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/21/2016 6:25:46 AM, imabench wrote:
At 2/21/2016 5:21:35 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
How will the Supreme Court affect this?

I dont see it having that much impact. Other headlines will come up that will bury Scalia's death into memory, and thats before we even get out of the primary's. Once we hit the general election, Scalia's death will seem as 'old news' as David Bowies

What if the GOP blocks nominations for 300+ days...?
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
imabench
Posts: 21,206
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
2/21/2016 7:33:56 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/21/2016 6:28:36 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/21/2016 6:25:46 AM, imabench wrote:
At 2/21/2016 5:21:35 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
How will the Supreme Court affect this?

I dont see it having that much impact. Other headlines will come up that will bury Scalia's death into memory, and thats before we even get out of the primary's. Once we hit the general election, Scalia's death will seem as 'old news' as David Bowies

What if the GOP blocks nominations for 300+ days...?

It would rile up votes, but they'll cancel each other out. Annoyed democrats will turn out to vote for the Democratic candidates, and grateful Republicans will turn out to support the Republican candidate..... I suppose though that a GOP senator in a very liberal state could lose a seat over it.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,100
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
2/21/2016 7:36:09 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/21/2016 7:33:56 AM, imabench wrote:
At 2/21/2016 6:28:36 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/21/2016 6:25:46 AM, imabench wrote:
At 2/21/2016 5:21:35 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
How will the Supreme Court affect this?

I dont see it having that much impact. Other headlines will come up that will bury Scalia's death into memory, and thats before we even get out of the primary's. Once we hit the general election, Scalia's death will seem as 'old news' as David Bowies

What if the GOP blocks nominations for 300+ days...?

It would rile up votes, but they'll cancel each other out. Annoyed democrats will turn out to vote for the Democratic candidates, and grateful Republicans will turn out to support the Republican candidate..... I suppose though that a GOP senator in a very liberal state could lose a seat over it.

I mean...let's look at these states - if they follow the GOP's lead in these states, the independents will be utterly turned off by the obstructionism.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King