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Mikal
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2/4/2016 3:24:33 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
I literally called this like 3 months ago.

http://www.debate.org...

People are praising Cruz and are embracing a veil of ignorance when they are assuming the results from the Iowa Caucus is a good thing for him. Iowa was his single best shot at winning something profound, and he verily managed to do it. This is in a extremely evangelical state where he siphoned votes off other people.

From the start of this , and since trump picked up momentum he has been between 30-40 percent of the GOP vote. There is an initial group of supporters and it will always stay in that range. That leaves nearly 60-70 percent of the vote spread among other candidates. What it takes for trump to lose if people dropping out, and those votes going over to the runner up. I called it like 3 months ago, and said it like 5 months prior to that and now we are seeing the truth behind the logic.

Literally Rubio was in points of him which was highly unexpected , because he pulled votes from people whom the people viewed did not have a shot. If this goes to a heads up between Rubio and Trump, Rubio will win. He won't just win the nominee, but he will win the general election.

We are going to see a huge decrease with cruz over time as he goes out into the general elections. He will lose NH, and he will lose Virginia overwhelmingly. If rubio does well in these, it bodes well for his chances.

_________________________________________________________

On Bernie

Bernie's chances are almost over. NH and Iowa were his best shots at winning something profound, and the fact it win a to a coin toss does not bode well for him. When this goes to the general public, the republicans will pain him as a socialist and the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the concept of socialism and he will lose.

Hillary pretty much has this on lock now. She will lose horribly in NH and them stomp him everywhere else. Nothing short of conviction will stop her from loosing

If it goes to Rubio - Hillary , Rubio will win

Trump - Hillary, Hillary will win.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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2/4/2016 3:30:09 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 3:24:33 PM, Mikal wrote:
I literally called this like 3 months ago.

http://www.debate.org...

People are praising Cruz and are embracing a veil of ignorance when they are assuming the results from the Iowa Caucus is a good thing for him. Iowa was his single best shot at winning something profound, and he verily managed to do it. This is in a extremely evangelical state where he siphoned votes off other people.

From the start of this , and since trump picked up momentum he has been between 30-40 percent of the GOP vote. There is an initial group of supporters and it will always stay in that range. That leaves nearly 60-70 percent of the vote spread among other candidates. What it takes for trump to lose if people dropping out, and those votes going over to the runner up. I called it like 3 months ago, and said it like 5 months prior to that and now we are seeing the truth behind the logic.

Literally Rubio was in points of him which was highly unexpected , because he pulled votes from people whom the people viewed did not have a shot. If this goes to a heads up between Rubio and Trump, Rubio will win. He won't just win the nominee, but he will win the general election.

We are going to see a huge decrease with cruz over time as he goes out into the general elections. He will lose NH, and he will lose Virginia overwhelmingly. If rubio does well in these, it bodes well for his chances.


_________________________________________________________


On Bernie

Bernie's chances are almost over. NH and Iowa were his best shots at winning something profound, and the fact it win a to a coin toss does not bode well for him. When this goes to the general public, the republicans will pain him as a socialist and the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the concept of socialism and he will lose.

Hillary pretty much has this on lock now. She will lose horribly in NH and them stomp him everywhere else. Nothing short of conviction will stop her from loosing


If it goes to Rubio - Hillary , Rubio will win

Trump - Hillary, Hillary will win.

I agree with the Cruz point, disagree about Trump. Rubio has a good chance now. Wait for some of the others to drop out (happening now), Trump's invincibility was shaken, Cruz will not do as well in other states, all signs point to Rubio right now.

Sanders. Well, he is a long-shot regardless. He is my guy, make no mistake, but I didn't expect him to do this well. He will most likely get squished super Tuesday.
Mikal
Posts: 11,271
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2/4/2016 3:32:39 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 3:30:09 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:24:33 PM, Mikal wrote:
I literally called this like 3 months ago.

http://www.debate.org...

People are praising Cruz and are embracing a veil of ignorance when they are assuming the results from the Iowa Caucus is a good thing for him. Iowa was his single best shot at winning something profound, and he verily managed to do it. This is in a extremely evangelical state where he siphoned votes off other people.

From the start of this , and since trump picked up momentum he has been between 30-40 percent of the GOP vote. There is an initial group of supporters and it will always stay in that range. That leaves nearly 60-70 percent of the vote spread among other candidates. What it takes for trump to lose if people dropping out, and those votes going over to the runner up. I called it like 3 months ago, and said it like 5 months prior to that and now we are seeing the truth behind the logic.

Literally Rubio was in points of him which was highly unexpected , because he pulled votes from people whom the people viewed did not have a shot. If this goes to a heads up between Rubio and Trump, Rubio will win. He won't just win the nominee, but he will win the general election.

We are going to see a huge decrease with cruz over time as he goes out into the general elections. He will lose NH, and he will lose Virginia overwhelmingly. If rubio does well in these, it bodes well for his chances.


_________________________________________________________


On Bernie

Bernie's chances are almost over. NH and Iowa were his best shots at winning something profound, and the fact it win a to a coin toss does not bode well for him. When this goes to the general public, the republicans will pain him as a socialist and the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the concept of socialism and he will lose.

Hillary pretty much has this on lock now. She will lose horribly in NH and them stomp him everywhere else. Nothing short of conviction will stop her from loosing


If it goes to Rubio - Hillary , Rubio will win

Trump - Hillary, Hillary will win.

I agree with the Cruz point, disagree about Trump. Rubio has a good chance now. Wait for some of the others to drop out (happening now), Trump's invincibility was shaken, Cruz will not do as well in other states, all signs point to Rubio right now.

Sanders. Well, he is a long-shot regardless. He is my guy, make no mistake, but I didn't expect him to do this well. He will most likely get squished super Tuesday.

I've always thought rubio had the best shot, and to be frank I would probably vote for him in a general election. I like Rubio far greater than I like most other people running this election.

Out of every candidate he has the best shot of brdiging the "gap"

Republicans are not going to work with Hillary that well, and they sure as heck are not going to work with sanders. Rubio is a decently sided conservative with some liberal view points. I actually like him
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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2/4/2016 3:36:50 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 3:32:39 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:30:09 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:24:33 PM, Mikal wrote:
I literally called this like 3 months ago.

http://www.debate.org...

People are praising Cruz and are embracing a veil of ignorance when they are assuming the results from the Iowa Caucus is a good thing for him. Iowa was his single best shot at winning something profound, and he verily managed to do it. This is in a extremely evangelical state where he siphoned votes off other people.

From the start of this , and since trump picked up momentum he has been between 30-40 percent of the GOP vote. There is an initial group of supporters and it will always stay in that range. That leaves nearly 60-70 percent of the vote spread among other candidates. What it takes for trump to lose if people dropping out, and those votes going over to the runner up. I called it like 3 months ago, and said it like 5 months prior to that and now we are seeing the truth behind the logic.

Literally Rubio was in points of him which was highly unexpected , because he pulled votes from people whom the people viewed did not have a shot. If this goes to a heads up between Rubio and Trump, Rubio will win. He won't just win the nominee, but he will win the general election.

We are going to see a huge decrease with cruz over time as he goes out into the general elections. He will lose NH, and he will lose Virginia overwhelmingly. If rubio does well in these, it bodes well for his chances.


_________________________________________________________


On Bernie

Bernie's chances are almost over. NH and Iowa were his best shots at winning something profound, and the fact it win a to a coin toss does not bode well for him. When this goes to the general public, the republicans will pain him as a socialist and the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the concept of socialism and he will lose.

Hillary pretty much has this on lock now. She will lose horribly in NH and them stomp him everywhere else. Nothing short of conviction will stop her from loosing


If it goes to Rubio - Hillary , Rubio will win

Trump - Hillary, Hillary will win.

I agree with the Cruz point, disagree about Trump. Rubio has a good chance now. Wait for some of the others to drop out (happening now), Trump's invincibility was shaken, Cruz will not do as well in other states, all signs point to Rubio right now.

Sanders. Well, he is a long-shot regardless. He is my guy, make no mistake, but I didn't expect him to do this well. He will most likely get squished super Tuesday.

I've always thought rubio had the best shot, and to be frank I would probably vote for him in a general election. I like Rubio far greater than I like most other people running this election.

Out of every candidate he has the best shot of brdiging the "gap"


Republicans are not going to work with Hillary that well, and they sure as heck are not going to work with sanders. Rubio is a decently sided conservative with some liberal view points. I actually like him

I can say I like the guy, but he is a beacon of normalcy on that side.
Mikal
Posts: 11,271
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2/4/2016 3:38:57 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 3:36:50 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:32:39 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:30:09 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:24:33 PM, Mikal wrote:
I literally called this like 3 months ago.

http://www.debate.org...

People are praising Cruz and are embracing a veil of ignorance when they are assuming the results from the Iowa Caucus is a good thing for him. Iowa was his single best shot at winning something profound, and he verily managed to do it. This is in a extremely evangelical state where he siphoned votes off other people.

From the start of this , and since trump picked up momentum he has been between 30-40 percent of the GOP vote. There is an initial group of supporters and it will always stay in that range. That leaves nearly 60-70 percent of the vote spread among other candidates. What it takes for trump to lose if people dropping out, and those votes going over to the runner up. I called it like 3 months ago, and said it like 5 months prior to that and now we are seeing the truth behind the logic.

Literally Rubio was in points of him which was highly unexpected , because he pulled votes from people whom the people viewed did not have a shot. If this goes to a heads up between Rubio and Trump, Rubio will win. He won't just win the nominee, but he will win the general election.

We are going to see a huge decrease with cruz over time as he goes out into the general elections. He will lose NH, and he will lose Virginia overwhelmingly. If rubio does well in these, it bodes well for his chances.


_________________________________________________________


On Bernie

Bernie's chances are almost over. NH and Iowa were his best shots at winning something profound, and the fact it win a to a coin toss does not bode well for him. When this goes to the general public, the republicans will pain him as a socialist and the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the concept of socialism and he will lose.

Hillary pretty much has this on lock now. She will lose horribly in NH and them stomp him everywhere else. Nothing short of conviction will stop her from loosing


If it goes to Rubio - Hillary , Rubio will win

Trump - Hillary, Hillary will win.

I agree with the Cruz point, disagree about Trump. Rubio has a good chance now. Wait for some of the others to drop out (happening now), Trump's invincibility was shaken, Cruz will not do as well in other states, all signs point to Rubio right now.

Sanders. Well, he is a long-shot regardless. He is my guy, make no mistake, but I didn't expect him to do this well. He will most likely get squished super Tuesday.

I've always thought rubio had the best shot, and to be frank I would probably vote for him in a general election. I like Rubio far greater than I like most other people running this election.

Out of every candidate he has the best shot of brdiging the "gap"


Republicans are not going to work with Hillary that well, and they sure as heck are not going to work with sanders. Rubio is a decently sided conservative with some liberal view points. I actually like him

I can say I like the guy, but he is a beacon of normalcy on that side.

Most politicians that are normal are

Cruz is a radical
trump is an idiot
Hillary is a robot
Bernie is going to die before his term finishes and is a raging jewish grandpa that will burn the country down on accident

I'll take normal
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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2/4/2016 3:56:18 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 3:38:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:36:50 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:32:39 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:30:09 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:24:33 PM, Mikal wrote:
I literally called this like 3 months ago.

http://www.debate.org...

People are praising Cruz and are embracing a veil of ignorance when they are assuming the results from the Iowa Caucus is a good thing for him. Iowa was his single best shot at winning something profound, and he verily managed to do it. This is in a extremely evangelical state where he siphoned votes off other people.

From the start of this , and since trump picked up momentum he has been between 30-40 percent of the GOP vote. There is an initial group of supporters and it will always stay in that range. That leaves nearly 60-70 percent of the vote spread among other candidates. What it takes for trump to lose if people dropping out, and those votes going over to the runner up. I called it like 3 months ago, and said it like 5 months prior to that and now we are seeing the truth behind the logic.

Literally Rubio was in points of him which was highly unexpected , because he pulled votes from people whom the people viewed did not have a shot. If this goes to a heads up between Rubio and Trump, Rubio will win. He won't just win the nominee, but he will win the general election.

We are going to see a huge decrease with cruz over time as he goes out into the general elections. He will lose NH, and he will lose Virginia overwhelmingly. If rubio does well in these, it bodes well for his chances.


_________________________________________________________


On Bernie

Bernie's chances are almost over. NH and Iowa were his best shots at winning something profound, and the fact it win a to a coin toss does not bode well for him. When this goes to the general public, the republicans will pain him as a socialist and the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the concept of socialism and he will lose.

Hillary pretty much has this on lock now. She will lose horribly in NH and them stomp him everywhere else. Nothing short of conviction will stop her from loosing


If it goes to Rubio - Hillary , Rubio will win

Trump - Hillary, Hillary will win.

I agree with the Cruz point, disagree about Trump. Rubio has a good chance now. Wait for some of the others to drop out (happening now), Trump's invincibility was shaken, Cruz will not do as well in other states, all signs point to Rubio right now.

Sanders. Well, he is a long-shot regardless. He is my guy, make no mistake, but I didn't expect him to do this well. He will most likely get squished super Tuesday.

I've always thought rubio had the best shot, and to be frank I would probably vote for him in a general election. I like Rubio far greater than I like most other people running this election.

Out of every candidate he has the best shot of brdiging the "gap"


Republicans are not going to work with Hillary that well, and they sure as heck are not going to work with sanders. Rubio is a decently sided conservative with some liberal view points. I actually like him

I can say I like the guy, but he is a beacon of normalcy on that side.

Most politicians that are normal are

Cruz is a radical
trump is an idiot
Hillary is a robot
Bernie is going to die before his term finishes and is a raging jewish grandpa that will burn the country down on accident

I'll take normal

I agree with the characterizations of each. I will still wish and hope for the raging Jew who is a blink away from a brain aneurysm.
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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2/4/2016 3:59:13 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
I disagree with that Rubio would win a general. His extremity and uber-Catholicism would drive states like Pennsylvania and Ohio away. At that point it's pretty much over.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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stealspell
Posts: 980
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2/4/2016 4:28:02 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 3:24:33 PM, Mikal wrote:
I literally called this like 3 months ago.

http://www.debate.org...

People are praising Cruz and are embracing a veil of ignorance when they are assuming the results from the Iowa Caucus is a good thing for him. Iowa was his single best shot at winning something profound, and he verily managed to do it. This is in a extremely evangelical state where he siphoned votes off other people.

From the start of this , and since trump picked up momentum he has been between 30-40 percent of the GOP vote. There is an initial group of supporters and it will always stay in that range. That leaves nearly 60-70 percent of the vote spread among other candidates. What it takes for trump to lose if people dropping out, and those votes going over to the runner up. I called it like 3 months ago, and said it like 5 months prior to that and now we are seeing the truth behind the logic.

Literally Rubio was in points of him which was highly unexpected , because he pulled votes from people whom the people viewed did not have a shot. If this goes to a heads up between Rubio and Trump, Rubio will win. He won't just win the nominee, but he will win the general election.

We are going to see a huge decrease with cruz over time as he goes out into the general elections. He will lose NH, and he will lose Virginia overwhelmingly. If rubio does well in these, it bodes well for his chances.


_________________________________________________________


On Bernie

Bernie's chances are almost over. NH and Iowa were his best shots at winning something profound, and the fact it win a to a coin toss does not bode well for him. When this goes to the general public, the republicans will pain him as a socialist and the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the concept of socialism and he will lose.

Hillary pretty much has this on lock now. She will lose horribly in NH and them stomp him everywhere else. Nothing short of conviction will stop her from loosing


If it goes to Rubio - Hillary , Rubio will win

Trump - Hillary, Hillary will win.

I disagree wholeheartedly. Hillary will lose for the same reason she lost in '08. She's too moderate and the country wants real change. Bernie will be the next president.
Mikal
Posts: 11,271
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2/4/2016 4:37:58 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 3:59:13 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I disagree with that Rubio would win a general. His extremity and uber-Catholicism would drive states like Pennsylvania and Ohio away. At that point it's pretty much over.

Rubio has a great deal of the immigrant vote. He's for a path to citizenship and even sponsored the gang of 8 bill which most Republicans were against. He has a very good shot in a general election. His religious beliefs appeal to religious people ( ie conservative base), he will take most of them by default and appeal to others. He will get evangelicals. Then he will swing states like Florida which are needed to win.

Florida is what basically won obama the election. Rubio will take it just off being a senator and his backstory.

If rubio is the nominee he will win.

They will paint Hillary as Obama and they will paint Bernie as a worse version of Obama. Either way the shift in the nation, the senate, and the house to republican ideals is clear. No one party stays in the office for that long. It's already a heavily favored republican election, and rubio is what they need to win.
Mikal
Posts: 11,271
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2/4/2016 4:40:39 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 4:28:02 PM, stealspell wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:24:33 PM, Mikal wrote:
I literally called this like 3 months ago.

http://www.debate.org...

People are praising Cruz and are embracing a veil of ignorance when they are assuming the results from the Iowa Caucus is a good thing for him. Iowa was his single best shot at winning something profound, and he verily managed to do it. This is in a extremely evangelical state where he siphoned votes off other people.

From the start of this , and since trump picked up momentum he has been between 30-40 percent of the GOP vote. There is an initial group of supporters and it will always stay in that range. That leaves nearly 60-70 percent of the vote spread among other candidates. What it takes for trump to lose if people dropping out, and those votes going over to the runner up. I called it like 3 months ago, and said it like 5 months prior to that and now we are seeing the truth behind the logic.

Literally Rubio was in points of him which was highly unexpected , because he pulled votes from people whom the people viewed did not have a shot. If this goes to a heads up between Rubio and Trump, Rubio will win. He won't just win the nominee, but he will win the general election.

We are going to see a huge decrease with cruz over time as he goes out into the general elections. He will lose NH, and he will lose Virginia overwhelmingly. If rubio does well in these, it bodes well for his chances.


_________________________________________________________


On Bernie

Bernie's chances are almost over. NH and Iowa were his best shots at winning something profound, and the fact it win a to a coin toss does not bode well for him. When this goes to the general public, the republicans will pain him as a socialist and the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the concept of socialism and he will lose.

Hillary pretty much has this on lock now. She will lose horribly in NH and them stomp him everywhere else. Nothing short of conviction will stop her from loosing


If it goes to Rubio - Hillary , Rubio will win

Trump - Hillary, Hillary will win.

I disagree wholeheartedly. Hillary will lose for the same reason she lost in '08. She's too moderate and the country wants real change. Bernie will be the next president.

I would place bets on this with you. There is no possible way Sanders will win just because of how the GOP will paint him. The entire system is already shifting back to GOP ideals (it happens every term or two). Liberals were in, lots of people hate obamacare , etc. The general public is wanting a GOP president, as evident by the recent elections with the senate and the house. It supports it. They will paint sanders as the embodiment of a socialist , and he will die in a general election.

Not to even mention that he will *never* get anything done. If republicans won't work with obama who is more conservatives than sanders, sanders has a blue shot in hell at actually doing anything even if he is elected.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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2/4/2016 4:45:13 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 4:40:39 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 4:28:02 PM, stealspell wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:24:33 PM, Mikal wrote:
I literally called this like 3 months ago.

http://www.debate.org...

People are praising Cruz and are embracing a veil of ignorance when they are assuming the results from the Iowa Caucus is a good thing for him. Iowa was his single best shot at winning something profound, and he verily managed to do it. This is in a extremely evangelical state where he siphoned votes off other people.

From the start of this , and since trump picked up momentum he has been between 30-40 percent of the GOP vote. There is an initial group of supporters and it will always stay in that range. That leaves nearly 60-70 percent of the vote spread among other candidates. What it takes for trump to lose if people dropping out, and those votes going over to the runner up. I called it like 3 months ago, and said it like 5 months prior to that and now we are seeing the truth behind the logic.

Literally Rubio was in points of him which was highly unexpected , because he pulled votes from people whom the people viewed did not have a shot. If this goes to a heads up between Rubio and Trump, Rubio will win. He won't just win the nominee, but he will win the general election.

We are going to see a huge decrease with cruz over time as he goes out into the general elections. He will lose NH, and he will lose Virginia overwhelmingly. If rubio does well in these, it bodes well for his chances.


_________________________________________________________


On Bernie

Bernie's chances are almost over. NH and Iowa were his best shots at winning something profound, and the fact it win a to a coin toss does not bode well for him. When this goes to the general public, the republicans will pain him as a socialist and the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the concept of socialism and he will lose.

Hillary pretty much has this on lock now. She will lose horribly in NH and them stomp him everywhere else. Nothing short of conviction will stop her from loosing


If it goes to Rubio - Hillary , Rubio will win

Trump - Hillary, Hillary will win.

I disagree wholeheartedly. Hillary will lose for the same reason she lost in '08. She's too moderate and the country wants real change. Bernie will be the next president.

I would place bets on this with you. There is no possible way Sanders will win just because of how the GOP will paint him. The entire system is already shifting back to GOP ideals (it happens every term or two). Liberals were in, lots of people hate obamacare , etc. The general public is wanting a GOP president, as evident by the recent elections with the senate and the house. It supports it. They will paint sanders as the embodiment of a socialist , and he will die in a general election.

Not to even mention that he will *never* get anything done. If republicans won't work with obama who is more conservatives than sanders, sanders has a blue shot in hell at actually doing anything even if he is elected.

I have no idea where you are getting this idea that the electorate are moving right. The movement in the house is common mid-term, but the demographics are great for the Democrats right now.
stealspell
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2/4/2016 4:54:17 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 4:40:39 PM, Mikal wrote:
I would place bets on this with you. There is no possible way Sanders will win just because of how the GOP will paint him. The entire system is already shifting back to GOP ideals (it happens every term or two).

If by "entire system" you mean the strategic gerrymandering the Republicans had to do in order to win elections because they can't win fair and square, yeah.

If you mean, the country wants to regress and have another financial crisis, I don't think so.

Liberals were in, lots of people hate obamacare , etc.

Lots of people like it too.

The general public is wanting a GOP president, as evident by the recent elections with the senate and the house.

65% of the population didn't vote and the Republicans re-gerrymandered in order to win elections because they can't win fair and square.

It supports it. They will paint sanders as the embodiment of a socialist , and he will die in a general election.

Whether you like it or not socialism is coming to America. We're not experimenting with new ideas. We're implementing policies that our neighbors to the north already have.

Not to even mention that he will *never* get anything done. If republicans won't work with obama who is more conservatives than sanders, sanders has a blue shot in hell at actually doing anything even if he is elected.

Nothing will ever get done if millions of people don't demand change from Congress. They are more concerned with their campaign contributions and satisfying special interests than representing the views of the American people. When millions of people demand change from Congress, change will come.
Mikal
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2/4/2016 5:31:17 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 4:54:17 PM, stealspell wrote:

I think your entirely wrong, there are *aspects* of socialism that will come. Not socialism as a whole. There are aspects of socialism here now. The nation will never convert to whole hearted socialism and all it's pure ideologies.

http://www.270towin.com...
http://www.270towin.com...

the net change to both of those was dynamic. It also does not matter whether you call it "gerrymandering", a giant shift happened. It always happens, and always will happen.

https://en.wikipedia.org...

18 Republicans , and 16 Democrats, with the remainder being just there. There is always a shift in power and it often happens a 8 year term. When you see the senate hold mostly dems for 8 years it will shift to the GOP. Vice versa, and so forth and so on. It's timeless and has happened since the inception of our nation.

The time for the shift is here as evident by the house and senate shift, and the next thing want is president to shift.

Obama has did controversial things. Not necessarily bad but controversial nonetheless. He forced a mandate on gay marriage to legalize it, and he got Obamacare passed.

Any poll you are going to find has most people not supporting his policies.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
http://townhall.com...

Even the supreme court shifts and is in gridlock with it (which depends on the majority).

http://www.cbsnews.com...

the most recent being 47 44 with the high being approval which has not taken into account the recent GOP shift.

Not only that but passing these laws has literally but the GOP at a gridlock with dems. Meaning they are never going to work with bernie if they wont work with Obama. Look at where sanders rates on a ideology chart in accordance to the laws and bills he has pushed for.

https://www.govtrack.us...

Obama is far more conservative than sanders, and Hillary is still even more conservative than sanders. They have openly stated they don't want to pass or work with them because they are *damaging* america. What makes you think Sanders will have any viable impact when he is the embodiment of what every single GOP person hates.

TLDR

we are not every adopting socialism. We will have aspects of it but saying Sanders will convert the nation to pure socialism is asinine.
Mikal
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2/4/2016 5:31:51 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 4:45:13 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/4/2016 4:40:39 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 4:28:02 PM, stealspell wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:24:33 PM, Mikal wrote:
I literally called this like 3 months ago.

http://www.debate.org...

People are praising Cruz and are embracing a veil of ignorance when they are assuming the results from the Iowa Caucus is a good thing for him. Iowa was his single best shot at winning something profound, and he verily managed to do it. This is in a extremely evangelical state where he siphoned votes off other people.

From the start of this , and since trump picked up momentum he has been between 30-40 percent of the GOP vote. There is an initial group of supporters and it will always stay in that range. That leaves nearly 60-70 percent of the vote spread among other candidates. What it takes for trump to lose if people dropping out, and those votes going over to the runner up. I called it like 3 months ago, and said it like 5 months prior to that and now we are seeing the truth behind the logic.

Literally Rubio was in points of him which was highly unexpected , because he pulled votes from people whom the people viewed did not have a shot. If this goes to a heads up between Rubio and Trump, Rubio will win. He won't just win the nominee, but he will win the general election.

We are going to see a huge decrease with cruz over time as he goes out into the general elections. He will lose NH, and he will lose Virginia overwhelmingly. If rubio does well in these, it bodes well for his chances.


_________________________________________________________


On Bernie

Bernie's chances are almost over. NH and Iowa were his best shots at winning something profound, and the fact it win a to a coin toss does not bode well for him. When this goes to the general public, the republicans will pain him as a socialist and the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the concept of socialism and he will lose.

Hillary pretty much has this on lock now. She will lose horribly in NH and them stomp him everywhere else. Nothing short of conviction will stop her from loosing


If it goes to Rubio - Hillary , Rubio will win

Trump - Hillary, Hillary will win.

I disagree wholeheartedly. Hillary will lose for the same reason she lost in '08. She's too moderate and the country wants real change. Bernie will be the next president.

I would place bets on this with you. There is no possible way Sanders will win just because of how the GOP will paint him. The entire system is already shifting back to GOP ideals (it happens every term or two). Liberals were in, lots of people hate obamacare , etc. The general public is wanting a GOP president, as evident by the recent elections with the senate and the house. It supports it. They will paint sanders as the embodiment of a socialist , and he will die in a general election.

Not to even mention that he will *never* get anything done. If republicans won't work with obama who is more conservatives than sanders, sanders has a blue shot in hell at actually doing anything even if he is elected.

I have no idea where you are getting this idea that the electorate are moving right. The movement in the house is common mid-term, but the demographics are great for the Democrats right now.

http://www.debate.org...
TBR
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2/4/2016 5:53:54 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 5:31:51 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 4:45:13 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/4/2016 4:40:39 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 4:28:02 PM, stealspell wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:24:33 PM, Mikal wrote:
I literally called this like 3 months ago.

http://www.debate.org...

People are praising Cruz and are embracing a veil of ignorance when they are assuming the results from the Iowa Caucus is a good thing for him. Iowa was his single best shot at winning something profound, and he verily managed to do it. This is in a extremely evangelical state where he siphoned votes off other people.

From the start of this , and since trump picked up momentum he has been between 30-40 percent of the GOP vote. There is an initial group of supporters and it will always stay in that range. That leaves nearly 60-70 percent of the vote spread among other candidates. What it takes for trump to lose if people dropping out, and those votes going over to the runner up. I called it like 3 months ago, and said it like 5 months prior to that and now we are seeing the truth behind the logic.

Literally Rubio was in points of him which was highly unexpected , because he pulled votes from people whom the people viewed did not have a shot. If this goes to a heads up between Rubio and Trump, Rubio will win. He won't just win the nominee, but he will win the general election.

We are going to see a huge decrease with cruz over time as he goes out into the general elections. He will lose NH, and he will lose Virginia overwhelmingly. If rubio does well in these, it bodes well for his chances.


_________________________________________________________


On Bernie

Bernie's chances are almost over. NH and Iowa were his best shots at winning something profound, and the fact it win a to a coin toss does not bode well for him. When this goes to the general public, the republicans will pain him as a socialist and the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the concept of socialism and he will lose.

Hillary pretty much has this on lock now. She will lose horribly in NH and them stomp him everywhere else. Nothing short of conviction will stop her from loosing


If it goes to Rubio - Hillary , Rubio will win

Trump - Hillary, Hillary will win.

I disagree wholeheartedly. Hillary will lose for the same reason she lost in '08. She's too moderate and the country wants real change. Bernie will be the next president.

I would place bets on this with you. There is no possible way Sanders will win just because of how the GOP will paint him. The entire system is already shifting back to GOP ideals (it happens every term or two). Liberals were in, lots of people hate obamacare , etc. The general public is wanting a GOP president, as evident by the recent elections with the senate and the house. It supports it. They will paint sanders as the embodiment of a socialist , and he will die in a general election.

Not to even mention that he will *never* get anything done. If republicans won't work with obama who is more conservatives than sanders, sanders has a blue shot in hell at actually doing anything even if he is elected.

I have no idea where you are getting this idea that the electorate are moving right. The movement in the house is common mid-term, but the demographics are great for the Democrats right now.

http://www.debate.org...

Vegas is betting hard on a democratic win.
http://www.allenbwest.com...
Mikal
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2/4/2016 6:00:16 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 5:53:54 PM, TBR wrote:

Any bets are probably projected on a Donald vs Hillary race or Cruz vs Hillary race. Which i would bet democrat too. If rubio comes into it, it will be the GOP
stealspell
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2/4/2016 6:03:41 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 5:31:17 PM, Mikal wrote:
I think your entirely wrong, there are *aspects* of socialism that will come. Not socialism as a whole. There are aspects of socialism here now. The nation will never convert to whole hearted socialism and all it's pure ideologies.

Socialism, in its full-blow form, will arrive eventually. It may take half a century or more, but it's coming.

http://www.270towin.com...
http://www.270towin.com...

the net change to both of those was dynamic. It also does not matter whether you call it "gerrymandering", a giant shift happened. It always happens, and always will happen.

It does matter. And I'm not calling it "gerrymandering" I'm telling you exactly what happened. The reason the democrats lost was because 65% of people didn't vote in the last election. Your "giant shift" is malarkey.

Obama has did controversial things. Not necessarily bad but controversial nonetheless. He forced a mandate on gay marriage to legalize it, and he got Obamacare passed.

He forced a mandate on gay marriage to legalize it? What are you talking about?

What makes you think Sanders will have any viable impact when he is the embodiment of what every single GOP person hates.

That's a gross exaggeration. He gets along with Republicans much better than Obama and Hillary. As to actually getting things done, like I said before, change will only happen when the people demand it. Change always happens from the bottom up, not top down.
EndarkenedRationalist
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2/4/2016 6:03:58 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 6:00:16 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 5:53:54 PM, TBR wrote:

Any bets are probably projected on a Donald vs Hillary race or Cruz vs Hillary race. Which i would bet democrat too. If rubio comes into it, it will be the GOP

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
http://www.270towin.com...
TBR
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2/4/2016 6:06:04 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 6:00:16 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 5:53:54 PM, TBR wrote:

Any bets are probably projected on a Donald vs Hillary race or Cruz vs Hillary race. Which i would bet democrat too. If rubio comes into it, it will be the GOP

Well, look at the link. Not so.

If it is Rubio, the GOP has a chance - a good chance. I would still bet (regardless of my political affiliation) on the Democrat.
Mikal
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2/4/2016 6:13:57 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 6:03:41 PM, stealspell wrote:
At 2/4/2016 5:31:17 PM, Mikal wrote:
I think your entirely wrong, there are *aspects* of socialism that will come. Not socialism as a whole. There are aspects of socialism here now. The nation will never convert to whole hearted socialism and all it's pure ideologies.

Socialism, in its full-blow form, will arrive eventually. It may take half a century or more, but it's coming.

http://www.270towin.com...
http://www.270towin.com...

the net change to both of those was dynamic. It also does not matter whether you call it "gerrymandering", a giant shift happened. It always happens, and always will happen.

It does matter. And I'm not calling it "gerrymandering" I'm telling you exactly what happened. The reason the democrats lost was because 65% of people didn't vote in the last election. Your "giant shift" is malarkey.

Obama has did controversial things. Not necessarily bad but controversial nonetheless. He forced a mandate on gay marriage to legalize it, and he got Obamacare passed.

He forced a mandate on gay marriage to legalize it? What are you talking about?

What makes you think Sanders will have any viable impact when he is the embodiment of what every single GOP person hates.

That's a gross exaggeration. He gets along with Republicans much better than Obama and Hillary. As to actually getting things done, like I said before, change will only happen when the people demand it. Change always happens from the bottom up, not top down.

I think you are entirely lost dude. If you think we are ever adopting full out socialism , you are in la la land. There is no way. There will be shifts towards it, but there will be shifts back. I've pointed that out 100 times. No matter how close you get the people in the US will shift back to the GOP, then shift back to the Dems. There has and always will be a gridlock which gives a little power up and turns tables every 8 years. By mandate I mean Obama mandates certain actions to happen for it occur. Certain people were put in certain places (justices were turned, placed , etc) for it to pass. Had he not pushed and used his power for it to pass so fast it would not have happened. That is why there was an uproar over it, spec because of the Kennedy situation.

I mean i don't know what else to say. All your saying is it *will come*

you have not posted anything substantial to show it , other than asserting an opinion

nothing left to discuss
Mikal
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2/4/2016 6:17:41 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 6:03:58 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 2/4/2016 6:00:16 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 5:53:54 PM, TBR wrote:

Any bets are probably projected on a Donald vs Hillary race or Cruz vs Hillary race. Which i would bet democrat too. If rubio comes into it, it will be the GOP

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
http://www.270towin.com...

you realize if they are basing it of that , it varies based on who does the polls. ESPC when it's cnbc or fox, the results will always shift for who that network supports. It's not even remotely accurate. The control group and how the areas they target are all off, and extremely biased. That is for both networks and which affiliation they support.

Much less if those polls are putting Rubio within 2 percent, I'd even back up further that he would win. They had him at 11 percent in Iowa using the same concept and he syphoned votes enough to nearly double it. Same thing will happen in the general election

They have not even begun the attack ads on Hillary or bernie yet. They will portray Bernie has a hardcore socialist , and Hillary as the reason Benghazi was not taken care of. It will be highlighted on every major network that they can and it will be enough to shift a great deal of votes.
stealspell
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2/4/2016 6:18:41 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 6:13:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I think you are entirely lost dude. If you think we are ever adopting full out socialism , you are in la la land. There is no way.

I said it could take half a century. So having this conversation now is about as productive as having a conversation about gay marriage in the 1930s.
Mikal
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2/4/2016 6:19:41 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 6:18:41 PM, stealspell wrote:
At 2/4/2016 6:13:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I think you are entirely lost dude. If you think we are ever adopting full out socialism , you are in la la land. There is no way.

I said it could take half a century. So having this conversation now is about as productive as having a conversation about gay marriage in the 1930s.

That's what i'm saying. It's just an assumption
stealspell
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2/4/2016 6:21:14 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 6:19:41 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 6:18:41 PM, stealspell wrote:
At 2/4/2016 6:13:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I think you are entirely lost dude. If you think we are ever adopting full out socialism , you are in la la land. There is no way.

I said it could take half a century. So having this conversation now is about as productive as having a conversation about gay marriage in the 1930s.

That's what i'm saying. It's just an assumption

It's not an assumption. It's based on the fact that at the core of capitalism, the motivating principle, is greed. And society will evolve away from condoning greed and move towards an equality for all economic system.
Mikal
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2/4/2016 6:31:08 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 6:03:58 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 2/4/2016 6:00:16 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 5:53:54 PM, TBR wrote:

Any bets are probably projected on a Donald vs Hillary race or Cruz vs Hillary race. Which i would bet democrat too. If rubio comes into it, it will be the GOP

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
http://www.270towin.com...

I should word that differently. Every election is determined by swing states. Who wins the swing states, has the most viable shot at becoming president.

FL - Rubio
Iowa - Either or
Colorado - Clinton
Nevada - Rubio
NH - Clinton
NC - Rubio
Ohio - Prob Clinton
Virg - Rubio
Wisc - Prob Clinton

That poll also has Clinton winning texas lmao, is that even serious. Does not have Georgia listed in favor of the GOP. or Louisana. . It's so bogus

I expect it to be literally almost a repeat of 2012

http://elections.nbcnews.com...

except take Florida and Virginia away from the dems

rubio will def win
1harderthanyouthink
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2/4/2016 7:10:51 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 4:37:58 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:59:13 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
It's already a heavily favored republican election, and rubio is what they need to win.

This is where I know you're wrong.

Let's put it this way - the Republicans have to win Florida, no matter what. But if the Democrats keep Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Nevada - which they most likely will - the Republicans have to win all other states that have flipped at some point since 2000.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
Mikal
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2/4/2016 7:24:23 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 7:10:51 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/4/2016 4:37:58 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:59:13 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
It's already a heavily favored republican election, and rubio is what they need to win.

This is where I know you're wrong.

Let's put it this way - the Republicans have to win Florida, no matter what. But if the Democrats keep Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Nevada - which they most likely will - the Republicans have to win all other states that have flipped at some point since 2000.

All they *have to do* is win florida (which they prob will), virg ( which they will) and about 20 other elec votes. Meaning if Colorado flipped (it was within 3 points or so) the last election, they win. There was like 5 states within the last election that was within a few points of going for Romney. 2 of them I believe have voted for rep house and senate members in the past vote

It's slanted in favor of the GOP right now in the sense that , 2 of the states they need, they will probably get. The only reason it does not seem that way to you , is a few states Obama won last election. Your saying all that need do is keep them. That does not mean they will or even mean it's probable they will. Most of those states are swing states, and for that reason often swing. Well in this case have already swung or are starting to swing with vigor
Mikal
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2/4/2016 7:31:24 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 7:10:51 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/4/2016 4:37:58 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:59:13 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
It's already a heavily favored republican election, and rubio is what they need to win.

This is where I know you're wrong.

Let's put it this way - the Republicans have to win Florida, no matter what. But if the Democrats keep Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Nevada - which they most likely will - the Republicans have to win all other states that have flipped at some point since 2000.

Also just for reference

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

He has a damn good shot at making Colorado flip

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

also almost virgina , since the margin oor error for clinton is high and he's already ahead

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

pretty much is promised Florida

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

is stomping her in Iowa

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

and hes also winning ohio, and Pennsylvania , which went blue last time

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

tell me how thats not slanted with the mass shift in the gop lately
1harderthanyouthink
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2/4/2016 7:38:47 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 7:24:23 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 7:10:51 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/4/2016 4:37:58 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 3:59:13 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
It's already a heavily favored republican election, and rubio is what they need to win.

This is where I know you're wrong.

Let's put it this way - the Republicans have to win Florida, no matter what. But if the Democrats keep Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Nevada - which they most likely will - the Republicans have to win all other states that have flipped at some point since 2000.

All they *have to do* is win florida (which they prob will), virg ( which they will) and about 20 other elec votes. Meaning if Colorado flipped (it was within 3 points or so)

Over 5%, but whatever.

the last election, they win. There was like 5 states within the last election that was within a few points of going for Romney. 2 of them I believe have voted for rep house and senate members in the past vote

First: there were 3 states that were within 5 points that went Obama, and 1 for Romney. If he won all of them, he still would have lost.

Second: Midterms are bad indicators of Presidential years.

It's slanted in favor of the GOP right now in the sense that , 2 of the states they need, they will probably get.

See above.

The only reason it does not seem that way to you , is a few states Obama won last election. Your saying all that need do is keep them. That does not mean they will or even mean it's probable they will. Most of those states are swing states, and for that reason often swing. Well in this case have already swung or are starting to swing with vigor

They have to swing states that weren't even considered close in '12 to win.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
TBR
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2/4/2016 7:39:14 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 2/4/2016 6:17:41 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 6:03:58 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 2/4/2016 6:00:16 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 2/4/2016 5:53:54 PM, TBR wrote:

Any bets are probably projected on a Donald vs Hillary race or Cruz vs Hillary race. Which i would bet democrat too. If rubio comes into it, it will be the GOP

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
http://www.270towin.com...

you realize if they are basing it of that , it varies based on who does the polls. ESPC when it's cnbc or fox, the results will always shift for who that network supports. It's not even remotely accurate. The control group and how the areas they target are all off, and extremely biased. That is for both networks and which affiliation they support.

Much less if those polls are putting Rubio within 2 percent, I'd even back up further that he would win. They had him at 11 percent in Iowa using the same concept and he syphoned votes enough to nearly double it. Same thing will happen in the general election

They have not even begun the attack ads on Hillary or bernie yet. They will portray Bernie has a hardcore socialist , and Hillary as the reason Benghazi was not taken care of. It will be highlighted on every major network that they can and it will be enough to shift a great deal of votes.

Its parimutuel betting. The odds are getting set by the betting pools.