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Clinton-Sanders Delegate Count

ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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2/10/2016 6:11:50 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
I'm not the most well-versed with delegate math--so I'd love if someone more informed than I am could weigh in--but I came across a few articles this morning, such as this one by the AP [http://bigstory.ap.org...] which says the following:

"Bernie Sanders will win at least 13 of the Democratic delegates in New Hampshire and Hillary Clinton will win at least nine. Two delegates haven't yet been allocated. In the overall race for delegates, Clinton has 394, thanks in large part to endorsements from superdelegates " party officials who can support the candidate of their choice.Sanders has 42 delegates. It takes 2,382 delegates to win the Democratic nomination for president."

According to this, *even though* Bernie virtually tied Clinton in Iowa -- after Clinton won six coin tosses in a row (though evidently there were more coin tosses I'm not aware of, so this isn't necessarily as fishy as I initially thought) -- and claimed a commanding victory in New Hampshire, he's getting absolutely mauled in terms of delegates because party officials already committed to Hillary Clinton, irrespective of the will of the public.

Is it just me, or is this incredibly unfair? It seems to me that, no matter how well Sanders actually does in the upcoming primary states, he's effectively already doomed.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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Death23
Posts: 780
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2/10/2016 7:43:44 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/10/2016 6:11:50 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
party officials already committed to Hillary Clinton, irrespective of the will of the public.

What I've heard is that Clinton has the support of many super delegates but, as a practical matter, it is very unlikely that the super delegates would vote to nominate contrary to the popular vote. They would change their minds is Sanders won the popular vote.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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2/10/2016 7:58:27 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/10/2016 6:11:50 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
I'm not the most well-versed with delegate math--so I'd love if someone more informed than I am could weigh in--but I came across a few articles this morning, such as this one by the AP [http://bigstory.ap.org...] which says the following:

"Bernie Sanders will win at least 13 of the Democratic delegates in New Hampshire and Hillary Clinton will win at least nine. Two delegates haven't yet been allocated. In the overall race for delegates, Clinton has 394, thanks in large part to endorsements from superdelegates " party officials who can support the candidate of their choice.Sanders has 42 delegates. It takes 2,382 delegates to win the Democratic nomination for president."

According to this, *even though* Bernie virtually tied Clinton in Iowa -- after Clinton won six coin tosses in a row (though evidently there were more coin tosses I'm not aware of, so this isn't necessarily as fishy as I initially thought) -- and claimed a commanding victory in New Hampshire, he's getting absolutely mauled in terms of delegates because party officials already committed to Hillary Clinton, irrespective of the will of the public.

Is it just me, or is this incredibly unfair? It seems to me that, no matter how well Sanders actually does in the upcoming primary states, he's effectively already doomed.

I will respond more on this subject later, but yea Clinton has a firm grasp on superdelegets at this point. They aren't hard to understand, the concept is not wrong, it is just a little misleading. Same stuff happened with Obama. Point is, it sucks to see the totals when you know that its just a stacked deck. It is, in the end, not as bad as it seems.
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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2/10/2016 8:54:01 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
A lot of superdelegates changed sides to Obama in '08 after initially supporting Clinton. The same would most likely happen if Sanders won more states.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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2/11/2016 1:29:08 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/10/2016 8:54:01 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
A lot of superdelegates changed sides to Obama in '08 after initially supporting Clinton. The same would most likely happen if Sanders won more states.

This is very true. I've read about this a bit more, and it seems this is normally the case. Irrespective of the fact that these politicians clearly support Hillary, obviously there would be a giant mess on their hands if they actually stole the election away from the rightful winner (should Bernie win).

With that said... it's unsurprising that the establishment is backing Hillary, lol.... I guess the whole "I'm not establishment, I'm a woman!" thing isn't serving her too well.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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2/11/2016 1:47:46 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/11/2016 1:29:08 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/10/2016 8:54:01 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
A lot of superdelegates changed sides to Obama in '08 after initially supporting Clinton. The same would most likely happen if Sanders won more states.

This is very true. I've read about this a bit more, and it seems this is normally the case. Irrespective of the fact that these politicians clearly support Hillary, obviously there would be a giant mess on their hands if they actually stole the election away from the rightful winner (should Bernie win).

With that said... it's unsurprising that the establishment is backing Hillary, lol.... I guess the whole "I'm not establishment, I'm a woman!" thing isn't serving her too well.

Yeah, that was worse than anything Lincoln Chafee said.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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2/11/2016 1:49:07 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/11/2016 1:47:46 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:29:08 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/10/2016 8:54:01 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
A lot of superdelegates changed sides to Obama in '08 after initially supporting Clinton. The same would most likely happen if Sanders won more states.

This is very true. I've read about this a bit more, and it seems this is normally the case. Irrespective of the fact that these politicians clearly support Hillary, obviously there would be a giant mess on their hands if they actually stole the election away from the rightful winner (should Bernie win).

With that said... it's unsurprising that the establishment is backing Hillary, lol.... I guess the whole "I'm not establishment, I'm a woman!" thing isn't serving her too well.

Yeah, that was worse than anything Lincoln Chafee said.

Lol, I don't know if I would go that far... Chafee was a clown. But, yeah, her answer to that was horrible. I'd put it in the same category as her retort to Bernie's explanation of democratic socialism as referring to Scandinavia: "We're not Scandinavia, we're America!"
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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2/11/2016 1:52:41 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/11/2016 1:49:07 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:47:46 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:29:08 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/10/2016 8:54:01 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
A lot of superdelegates changed sides to Obama in '08 after initially supporting Clinton. The same would most likely happen if Sanders won more states.

This is very true. I've read about this a bit more, and it seems this is normally the case. Irrespective of the fact that these politicians clearly support Hillary, obviously there would be a giant mess on their hands if they actually stole the election away from the rightful winner (should Bernie win).

With that said... it's unsurprising that the establishment is backing Hillary, lol.... I guess the whole "I'm not establishment, I'm a woman!" thing isn't serving her too well.

Yeah, that was worse than anything Lincoln Chafee said.

Lol, I don't know if I would go that far... Chafee was a clown. But, yeah, her answer to that was horrible. I'd put it in the same category as her retort to Bernie's explanation of democratic socialism as referring to Scandinavia: "We're not Scandinavia, we're America!"

Sounded like Marco Rubio last debate.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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2/11/2016 1:54:28 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/11/2016 1:52:41 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:49:07 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:47:46 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:29:08 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/10/2016 8:54:01 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
A lot of superdelegates changed sides to Obama in '08 after initially supporting Clinton. The same would most likely happen if Sanders won more states.

This is very true. I've read about this a bit more, and it seems this is normally the case. Irrespective of the fact that these politicians clearly support Hillary, obviously there would be a giant mess on their hands if they actually stole the election away from the rightful winner (should Bernie win).

With that said... it's unsurprising that the establishment is backing Hillary, lol.... I guess the whole "I'm not establishment, I'm a woman!" thing isn't serving her too well.

Yeah, that was worse than anything Lincoln Chafee said.

Lol, I don't know if I would go that far... Chafee was a clown. But, yeah, her answer to that was horrible. I'd put it in the same category as her retort to Bernie's explanation of democratic socialism as referring to Scandinavia: "We're not Scandinavia, we're America!"

Sounded like Marco Rubio last debate.

Let's dispel this notion that Marco Rubio doesn't know what he's doing. He knows EXACTLY what he's doing! He wants to take a page out of the George-Bush, Jeb-Bush playbook: if he convinces people to temper their expectations of his performance, he's far more likely to exceed them.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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2/11/2016 2:16:02 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/11/2016 1:54:28 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:52:41 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:49:07 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:47:46 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:29:08 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/10/2016 8:54:01 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
A lot of superdelegates changed sides to Obama in '08 after initially supporting Clinton. The same would most likely happen if Sanders won more states.

This is very true. I've read about this a bit more, and it seems this is normally the case. Irrespective of the fact that these politicians clearly support Hillary, obviously there would be a giant mess on their hands if they actually stole the election away from the rightful winner (should Bernie win).

With that said... it's unsurprising that the establishment is backing Hillary, lol.... I guess the whole "I'm not establishment, I'm a woman!" thing isn't serving her too well.

Yeah, that was worse than anything Lincoln Chafee said.

Lol, I don't know if I would go that far... Chafee was a clown. But, yeah, her answer to that was horrible. I'd put it in the same category as her retort to Bernie's explanation of democratic socialism as referring to Scandinavia: "We're not Scandinavia, we're America!"

Sounded like Marco Rubio last debate.

Let's dispel this notion that Marco Rubio doesn't know what he's doing. He knows EXACTLY what he's doing! He wants to take a page out of the George-Bush, Jeb-Bush playbook: if he convinces people to temper their expectations of his performance, he's far more likely to exceed them.

Lol
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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2/11/2016 7:23:03 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/11/2016 1:54:28 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:52:41 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:49:07 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:47:46 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:29:08 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/10/2016 8:54:01 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
A lot of superdelegates changed sides to Obama in '08 after initially supporting Clinton. The same would most likely happen if Sanders won more states.

This is very true. I've read about this a bit more, and it seems this is normally the case. Irrespective of the fact that these politicians clearly support Hillary, obviously there would be a giant mess on their hands if they actually stole the election away from the rightful winner (should Bernie win).

With that said... it's unsurprising that the establishment is backing Hillary, lol.... I guess the whole "I'm not establishment, I'm a woman!" thing isn't serving her too well.

Yeah, that was worse than anything Lincoln Chafee said.

Lol, I don't know if I would go that far... Chafee was a clown. But, yeah, her answer to that was horrible. I'd put it in the same category as her retort to Bernie's explanation of democratic socialism as referring to Scandinavia: "We're not Scandinavia, we're America!"

Sounded like Marco Rubio last debate.

Let's dispel this notion that Marco Rubio doesn't know what he's doing. He knows EXACTLY what he's doing! He wants to take a page out of the George-Bush, Jeb-Bush playbook: if he convinces people to temper their expectations of his performance, he's far more likely to exceed them.

Excuse me while I get some water.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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2/11/2016 7:51:54 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/11/2016 7:23:03 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:54:28 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:52:41 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:49:07 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:47:46 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/11/2016 1:29:08 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/10/2016 8:54:01 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
A lot of superdelegates changed sides to Obama in '08 after initially supporting Clinton. The same would most likely happen if Sanders won more states.

This is very true. I've read about this a bit more, and it seems this is normally the case. Irrespective of the fact that these politicians clearly support Hillary, obviously there would be a giant mess on their hands if they actually stole the election away from the rightful winner (should Bernie win).

With that said... it's unsurprising that the establishment is backing Hillary, lol.... I guess the whole "I'm not establishment, I'm a woman!" thing isn't serving her too well.

Yeah, that was worse than anything Lincoln Chafee said.

Lol, I don't know if I would go that far... Chafee was a clown. But, yeah, her answer to that was horrible. I'd put it in the same category as her retort to Bernie's explanation of democratic socialism as referring to Scandinavia: "We're not Scandinavia, we're America!"

Sounded like Marco Rubio last debate.

Let's dispel this notion that Marco Rubio doesn't know what he's doing. He knows EXACTLY what he's doing! He wants to take a page out of the George-Bush, Jeb-Bush playbook: if he convinces people to temper their expectations of his performance, he's far more likely to exceed them.

Excuse me while I get some water.

lmfao
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah