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Who will win the democrat nomination

YYW
Posts: 36,263
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2/12/2016 1:04:34 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/11/2016 4:11:21 PM, beng100 wrote:
I predict clinton.

I would have said the same thing even three weeks ago, but she is in trouble. I still think that she's more likely than Bernie to get it, but I think the odds are down to something like 55/45 in her favor now, whereas they once were more like 95/5.
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imabench
Posts: 21,206
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2/12/2016 3:06:44 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/12/2016 1:04:34 AM, YYW wrote:
At 2/11/2016 4:11:21 PM, beng100 wrote:
I predict clinton.

I would have said the same thing even three weeks ago, but she is in trouble. I still think that she's more likely than Bernie to get it, but I think the odds are down to something like 55/45 in her favor now, whereas they once were more like 95/5.

I put it at 75/25..... Clinton has a war chest of donors, is playing the super delegate game hard, has endorsements from half of Obama's cabinet and prominent Democratic senators, and there isnt a second moderate candidate in the race to siphon off votes from her like Edwards did in 2008 to let Obama steal momentum.

Sanders just has too much going against him
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TBR
Posts: 9,991
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2/12/2016 4:23:51 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/12/2016 3:06:44 AM, imabench wrote:
At 2/12/2016 1:04:34 AM, YYW wrote:
At 2/11/2016 4:11:21 PM, beng100 wrote:
I predict clinton.

I would have said the same thing even three weeks ago, but she is in trouble. I still think that she's more likely than Bernie to get it, but I think the odds are down to something like 55/45 in her favor now, whereas they once were more like 95/5.

I put it at 75/25..... Clinton has a war chest of donors, is playing the super delegate game hard, has endorsements from half of Obama's cabinet and prominent Democratic senators, and there isnt a second moderate candidate in the race to siphon off votes from her like Edwards did in 2008 to let Obama steal momentum.

Sanders just has too much going against him

Damn it imabench! Why echo the "too much going against him"? Clinton has the same issue.

I agree that Sanders has a mountain between him and the nomination. Clinton has just about the most advantageous position of any candidate ever, but if it post "negative" for "negative", Clinton comes up as high or higher.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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2/12/2016 4:25:50 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/12/2016 3:06:44 AM, imabench wrote:
At 2/12/2016 1:04:34 AM, YYW wrote:
At 2/11/2016 4:11:21 PM, beng100 wrote:
I predict clinton.

I would have said the same thing even three weeks ago, but she is in trouble. I still think that she's more likely than Bernie to get it, but I think the odds are down to something like 55/45 in her favor now, whereas they once were more like 95/5.

I put it at 75/25..... Clinton has a war chest of donors, is playing the super delegate game hard, has endorsements from half of Obama's cabinet and prominent Democratic senators, and there isnt a second moderate candidate in the race to siphon off votes from her like Edwards did in 2008 to let Obama steal momentum.

Sanders just has too much going against him

But....

YYW has 55/45
You 75/25

Well... I think I would split it. 65/35. We will know for real super tuesday.