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How does Trump lose the nomination?

thett3
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2/15/2016 4:56:43 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
Can someone please explain to me what the path to victory for any candidate but Trump is? Because every day that goes by it seems less and less likely that they'll be able to pull it off.

Especially Rubio. What state is he going to win?
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
TN05
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2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/15/2016 4:56:43 AM, thett3 wrote:
Can someone please explain to me what the path to victory for any candidate but Trump is? Because every day that goes by it seems less and less likely that they'll be able to pull it off.

Path to victory requires dropouts. Carson, Kasich, and maybe Bush would need to dropout. Trump is pretty clearly stuck with the Buchannan share (25-33%) and will have trouble advancing further, especially among evangelicals. A three-way race would necessary shift it towards someone else. Cruz has the easiest shot - he won Iowa and is substantially more conservative than Trump. Rubio has a shot as well, especially if he absorbs the Carson voters.

Especially Rubio. What state is he going to win?

Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.
thett3
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2/15/2016 5:23:44 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 4:56:43 AM, thett3 wrote:
Can someone please explain to me what the path to victory for any candidate but Trump is? Because every day that goes by it seems less and less likely that they'll be able to pull it off.

Path to victory requires dropouts. Carson, Kasich, and maybe Bush would need to dropout. Trump is pretty clearly stuck with the Buchannan share (25-33%) and will have trouble advancing further, especially among evangelicals. A three-way race would necessary shift it towards someone else. Cruz has the easiest shot - he won Iowa and is substantially more conservative than Trump. Rubio has a shot as well, especially if he absorbs the Carson voters.

Interesting. I trolled you pretty hard about this on the Trump Triumph thread, so I'm surprised that you think Trump won't be able to absorb any more voters. Head to head he usually wins or comes within the margin of error of his opponents, why should we assume that those polls are bunk?


Especially Rubio. What state is he going to win?

Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.

If he can win Nevada maybe he'll have a chance, but even then I doubt it...if he doesn't win Nevada he's dead in the water. The only super Tuesday state Rubio has been remotely competitive in is Minnesota...after super Tuesday Rubio will be 0-18, or AT BEST, 2-16 assuming he wins both Nevada and Minnesota...I just don't see anyone coming back from that.

Cruz has a much better chance, but his problem is that his strongest states come early--the evangelical heavy south. Even in post-Iowa but pre-New Hampshire polls where Trump was severely damaged he was holding his own in most southern states. If Trump wins most of Cruz's strongest states it's difficult to see even him

Obviously I'm biased on this subject but I really just don't see how Trump is going to lose. He's going to win South Carolina by double digits, and probably Nevada too. Unless Cruz pulls a miracle on super tuesday and wins a lot of states other than Texas and Oklahoma I see his momentum as unstoppable.
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"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
beng100
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2/15/2016 12:58:42 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/15/2016 4:56:43 AM, thett3 wrote:
Can someone please explain to me what the path to victory for any candidate but Trump is? Because every day that goes by it seems less and less likely that they'll be able to pull it off.

Especially Rubio. What state is he going to win?

I think only some kind of scandal or major blunder. Rubio, kasich and Bush are cancelling each other out and Cruz is too far to the right and in my view will not pick up any support from other candidates as they drop out.
Greyparrot
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2/15/2016 12:59:50 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/15/2016 12:48:45 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
This article is exceptionally biased, but it makes some interesting points. http://www.alternet.org...

How in the hell does the "citizens united" decision affect Trump, other than to remind voters why career politicians who make crony laws should not be elected? Any candidate can spend his own money.
TN05
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2/15/2016 5:29:35 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/15/2016 5:23:44 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 4:56:43 AM, thett3 wrote:
Can someone please explain to me what the path to victory for any candidate but Trump is? Because every day that goes by it seems less and less likely that they'll be able to pull it off.

Path to victory requires dropouts. Carson, Kasich, and maybe Bush would need to dropout. Trump is pretty clearly stuck with the Buchannan share (25-33%) and will have trouble advancing further, especially among evangelicals. A three-way race would necessary shift it towards someone else. Cruz has the easiest shot - he won Iowa and is substantially more conservative than Trump. Rubio has a shot as well, especially if he absorbs the Carson voters.

Interesting. I trolled you pretty hard about this on the Trump Triumph thread, so I'm surprised that you think Trump won't be able to absorb any more voters.

His base are uneducated people, Reagan Democrats, and moderate/liberals. He has very little appeal outside of these groups. His best performance was in NH, which traditionally supports liberal Republicans. The odds are Carson, Bush, or Kasich voters won't go to him - they'll go to Cruz or Rubio.

Head to head he usually wins or comes within the margin of error of his opponents, why should we assume that those polls are bunk?

Not all states all independents and Democrats to vote. :)

Especially Rubio. What state is he going to win?

Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.

If he can win Nevada maybe he'll have a chance, but even then I doubt it...if he doesn't win Nevada he's dead in the water. The only super Tuesday state Rubio has been remotely competitive in is Minnesota...after super Tuesday Rubio will be 0-18, or AT BEST, 2-16 assuming he wins both Nevada and Minnesota...I just don't see anyone coming back from that.

Those polls were so accurate in Iowa, right?

Cruz has a much better chance, but his problem is that his strongest states come early--the evangelical heavy south. Even in post-Iowa but pre-New Hampshire polls where Trump was severely damaged he was holding his own in most southern states. If Trump wins most of Cruz's strongest states it's difficult to see even him

How is it bad to win early? Trump is not good at playing catch-up, especially in a two-man race where he's the one praising Planned Parenthood, eminent domain, and blaming Bush for 9/11 and saying he lied to get in Iraq.

Obviously I'm biased on this subject but I really just don't see how Trump is going to lose. He's going to win South Carolina by double digits, and probably Nevada too. Unless Cruz pulls a miracle on super tuesday and wins a lot of states other than Texas and Oklahoma I see his momentum as unstoppable.

Of course you see it that way, you are one of the people that would still support him if he went to sixth avenue and shot a bunch of people.
thett3
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2/15/2016 5:42:42 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/15/2016 5:29:35 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:23:44 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 4:56:43 AM, thett3 wrote:
Can someone please explain to me what the path to victory for any candidate but Trump is? Because every day that goes by it seems less and less likely that they'll be able to pull it off.

Path to victory requires dropouts. Carson, Kasich, and maybe Bush would need to dropout. Trump is pretty clearly stuck with the Buchannan share (25-33%) and will have trouble advancing further, especially among evangelicals. A three-way race would necessary shift it towards someone else. Cruz has the easiest shot - he won Iowa and is substantially more conservative than Trump. Rubio has a shot as well, especially if he absorbs the Carson voters.

Interesting. I trolled you pretty hard about this on the Trump Triumph thread, so I'm surprised that you think Trump won't be able to absorb any more voters.

His base are uneducated people, Reagan Democrats, and moderate/liberals. He has very little appeal outside of these groups. His best performance was in NH, which traditionally supports liberal Republicans. The odds are Carson, Bush, or Kasich voters won't go to him - they'll go to Cruz or Rubio.

You think Bush or Kasich voters would support Cruz? Rubio I can see, but Rubio has the problem of not being able to win an early state and make it into a three way race. In a Trump vs. Cruz match up, the establishment will bandwagon with Trump


Head to head he usually wins or comes within the margin of error of his opponents, why should we assume that those polls are bunk?

Not all states all independents and Democrats to vote. :)

True. This poses some difficulty to Trump, who has a lot of crossover appeal. But he wins registered Republicans, too. Basically my question is when does he really begin to lose and what is the data supporting that?


Especially Rubio. What state is he going to win?

Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.

If he can win Nevada maybe he'll have a chance, but even then I doubt it...if he doesn't win Nevada he's dead in the water. The only super Tuesday state Rubio has been remotely competitive in is Minnesota...after super Tuesday Rubio will be 0-18, or AT BEST, 2-16 assuming he wins both Nevada and Minnesota...I just don't see anyone coming back from that.

Those polls were so accurate in Iowa, right?

Actually yes, they were. The polls showed a last minute collapse in Trumps support and a last minute surge by Rubio, both of which happened. What states do you expect Rubio to win?


Cruz has a much better chance, but his problem is that his strongest states come early--the evangelical heavy south. Even in post-Iowa but pre-New Hampshire polls where Trump was severely damaged he was holding his own in most southern states. If Trump wins most of Cruz's strongest states it's difficult to see even him

How is it bad to win early? Trump is not good at playing catch-up, especially in a two-man race where he's the one praising Planned Parenthood, eminent domain, and blaming Bush for 9/11 and saying he lied to get in Iraq.

It isn't bad to win early--it's bad to win early and then stop winning. If Trump takes most of the states where we would expect Cruz to do best, which he's set to, how does he come back?


Obviously I'm biased on this subject but I really just don't see how Trump is going to lose. He's going to win South Carolina by double digits, and probably Nevada too. Unless Cruz pulls a miracle on super tuesday and wins a lot of states other than Texas and Oklahoma I see his momentum as unstoppable.

Of course you see it that way, you are one of the people that would still support him if he went to sixth avenue and shot a bunch of people.
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"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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2/17/2016 2:14:02 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/15/2016 5:29:35 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:23:44 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.

Okay so the latest Nevada poll just came out from quinnipiac. Highly respected pollster, important pollster.

Trump is at 45. Rubio is at 19. Double Rubios vote share and Trump still beats him handily. Where does he start losing?

A surprise loss in South Carolina MIGHT do the trick, but idk. Trump seems to have two bases of support, those who will vote for him no matter what and those who bandwagon with whoever appears to be winning. Unfortunately for those who hate Trump, the base of people who support him no matter what is still fairly large, around 30%. He isn't going quietly and probably isn't going at all
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Greyparrot
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2/17/2016 2:19:48 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 2:14:02 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:29:35 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:23:44 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.

Okay so the latest Nevada poll just came out from quinnipiac. Highly respected pollster, important pollster.

Trump is at 45. Rubio is at 19. Double Rubios vote share and Trump still beats him handily. Where does he start losing?

A surprise loss in South Carolina MIGHT do the trick, but idk. Trump seems to have two bases of support, those who will vote for him no matter what and those who bandwagon with whoever appears to be winning. Unfortunately for those who hate Trump, the base of people who support him no matter what is still fairly large, around 30%. He isn't going quietly and probably isn't going at all

Don't you think it's great that the Citizens United SCOTUS decision backfired for Bush? While he could get unlimited funds, it also meant people could see what he was getting and from who, so it labeled him as a crony guy.
imabench
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2/17/2016 2:22:16 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
If Ttump keeps attacking zgeirge Bush for the Iraq war and 9/11 like he did in the last debate then his numbers may go down enough to at least become vulnerable. George Bush is still very well liked by republicans, from moderates to the ultra-right, but while he isn't liked enough to saves Jebs doomed campaign, trump attacking him over and over could make him vulnerable to someone like Cruz whose within spitting distance of Trump
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thett3
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2/17/2016 2:24:25 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
Interestingly, Cruz supporters now appear to be as devoted as Trump supporters with many polls showing that large majorities of them will vote for him no matter what, similar to Trump.

This is an interesting dynamic and actually makes Cruz a bit more formidable than I thought. The issue is that his base is much smaller than Trumps and all the criticisms about Trump regarding a ceiling are doubly true for creepy Cruz
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

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"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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2/17/2016 2:25:59 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 2:19:48 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 2/17/2016 2:14:02 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:29:35 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:23:44 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.

Okay so the latest Nevada poll just came out from quinnipiac. Highly respected pollster, important pollster.

Trump is at 45. Rubio is at 19. Double Rubios vote share and Trump still beats him handily. Where does he start losing?

A surprise loss in South Carolina MIGHT do the trick, but idk. Trump seems to have two bases of support, those who will vote for him no matter what and those who bandwagon with whoever appears to be winning. Unfortunately for those who hate Trump, the base of people who support him no matter what is still fairly large, around 30%. He isn't going quietly and probably isn't going at all

Don't you think it's great that the Citizens United SCOTUS decision backfired for Bush? While he could get unlimited funds, it also meant people could see what he was getting and from who, so it labeled him as a crony guy.

Oh it's great. Bush and everyone who wasted money on him have earned this. Somehow Bush keeps getting money. Last month some guy gave him $5 million. What, why?
DDO Vice President

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"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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2/17/2016 2:27:43 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 2:22:16 PM, imabench wrote:
If Ttump keeps attacking zgeirge Bush for the Iraq war and 9/11 like he did in the last debate then his numbers may go down enough to at least become vulnerable. George Bush is still very well liked by republicans, from moderates to the ultra-right, but while he isn't liked enough to saves Jebs doomed campaign, trump attacking him over and over could make him vulnerable to someone like Cruz whose within spitting distance of Trump

I wondered about this too. So far it made his poll numbers sink like two points in S. Carolina but it was way less of a hit than I expected

If he can win South Carolina of all places after saying "Bush lied people died" and defending planned parenthood its delusional to say he won't win.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

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"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
TN05
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2/17/2016 2:31:07 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 2:14:02 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:29:35 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:23:44 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.

Okay so the latest Nevada poll just came out from quinnipiac. Highly respected pollster, important pollster.

Trump is at 45. Rubio is at 19. Double Rubios vote share and Trump still beats him handily. Where does he start losing?

Trump polled fairly well in Iowa before dropping. I don't put much stock into caucus polling anyway - too hard to predict turnout.

A surprise loss in South Carolina MIGHT do the trick, but idk. Trump seems to have two bases of support, those who will vote for him no matter what and those who bandwagon with whoever appears to be winning. Unfortunately for those who hate Trump, the base of people who support him no matter what is still fairly large, around 30%. He isn't going quietly and probably isn't going at all

He'll go the same way Buchannan did: very few people outside his devoted cult like him.
1harderthanyouthink
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2/17/2016 2:45:57 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 2:24:25 PM, thett3 wrote:
Interestingly, Cruz supporters now appear to be as devoted as Trump supporters with many polls showing that large majorities of them will vote for him no matter what, similar to Trump.

This is an interesting dynamic and actually makes Cruz a bit more formidable than I thought. The issue is that his base is much smaller than Trumps and all the criticisms about Trump regarding a ceiling are doubly true for creepy Cruz

Yeah, Cruz has no chance.
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thett3
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2/17/2016 3:03:04 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 2:31:07 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/17/2016 2:14:02 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:29:35 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:23:44 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.

Okay so the latest Nevada poll just came out from quinnipiac. Highly respected pollster, important pollster.

Trump is at 45. Rubio is at 19. Double Rubios vote share and Trump still beats him handily. Where does he start losing?

Trump polled fairly well in Iowa before dropping. I don't put much stock into caucus polling anyway - too hard to predict turnout.

That isn't really true. His numbers in Iowa were always lower than his national average and the polls showed a last minute collapse for him and for Cruz and a last minute surge for Rubio. Cruz pulled it out due to phenomenal ground game and through stealing Carson's votes.

It's true that caucuses are difficult to poll and Nevada even more so but....bruh.

Come on. 45-19? Give me a break


A surprise loss in South Carolina MIGHT do the trick, but idk. Trump seems to have two bases of support, those who will vote for him no matter what and those who bandwagon with whoever appears to be winning. Unfortunately for those who hate Trump, the base of people who support him no matter what is still fairly large, around 30%. He isn't going quietly and probably isn't going at all

He'll go the same way Buchannan did: very few people outside his devoted cult like him.

Bruh...I really don't want to troll you or continue to rehash old arguments, but he usually WINS head to head polls against Rubio.

After super Tuesday, Rubio will likely be 0-18 and Trump will likely be somewhere in the vicinity of 15-3. How does someone convince the electorate that they can win when they've lost 18 contests in a row?
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"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

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"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
YYW
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2/17/2016 3:55:13 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
As I correctly predicted months ago, this campaign will for the Republicans come down to Trump and Cruz. The signs were there, and I (unlike all the incompetent pundits) had the prudence to see what was happening in Middle America that they did not. But enough about my own foresight. For the purpose of analyzing Trump's chances of winning, you've got to look at (1) what issues matter most to voters, and (2) which candidate they believe has got the best shot at doing on those issues what the voters want.

The establishment's main issue is the assumption that the GOP's base (who are comprised of primarily middle class evangelical christians and working class whites who have attained at most a high school diploma or trade school) care more about intraclass social issues, such as gay marriage and the illusory threat to "religious freedom" than more important concerns like the economy, and national security.

Ever since the 1990s, as James Carville recognized, the economy has been front and center; meaning it's the first among many relevant concerns of all voters, and the GOP base is no different. In reality, they have a lot in common with most of middle America. Their concerns are as follows: a safe country, jobs (and by extension stable economic growth), and a future for their children. There are other issues, but those issues are peripheral.

Other efforts the candidates have attempted to use to hurt Trump have failed in entirely unsurprising ways. For example, Ted Cruz's recent efforts to make Trump appear as if he would appoint a "liberal" justice to the supreme court have mostly fallen on deaf ears for the reason that Trump has said he would repeal Obamacare (which is perceived by many to represent the greatest threat to US economic stability for the middle class), and, moreover, Cruz supported John Roberts' nomination, and John Roberts personally upheld Obamacare twice. Thus, Cruz looks like an incompetent hypocrite. A second example, as Cruz and others have attempted, in a similar vein, is that Cruz and company (including Rubio and others) have undertaken the effort to portray Trump as a social liberal in disguise. This too has failed, for equally obvious reasons. While most of the GOP base does indeed believe that Trump is more socially progressive than they are, they don't care. This is due in obvious part to the fact that what matters most are the issues I said above, and Trump, regardless of his social views, is by far regarded as the most competent to lead America into a new age of prosperity.

Moreover, the Republican establishment, and Jeb Bush specifically, have strategically miscalculated on criticizing Trump's bombastic personality and demeanor. Cruz, Rubio, and most significantly Jeb Bush have lambasted Trump for being a "bully" who "cries liar! Liar! Liar!" and other nonsense. This was a miscalculation for three reasons: (1) perception/contrast; (2) political correctness; and (3) power. First, the reason Trump is perceived by so many to be strong is because he is bombastic, blunt, and unreserved; he is a "straight talk" kind of guy, whereas all others talk like slimy politicians. Second, Trump preempted their assaults on his personality by framing his campaign as a repudiation of political correctness. Cruz and company followed, yet they are all now saying that Trump is too "mean" or whatever. This appears hypocritical to voters, and it is why they do not trust Cruz or Rubio. Third, trump appears powerful precisely because he is not weak, and, in particular, the "remedy" to Obama. (For a further discussion of this, see David Axelrod's replica/remedy electoral theory, with which I agree, and is consistent with what I have said about Trump from day one of this primary.)

The things that have put Trump where he is will remain in place, just as the things that have kept all other candidate behind him will keep others in theirs. Iowa was (as it has been for the last 16 years) the exception, not the rule, mainly because Republicans in Iowa are easily manipulated by lies and deviousness, like that of Ted Cruz. Those in New Hampshire and South Carolina, who are historically vastly more important anyway, always were less likely to be so easy to dupe. Significantly, even Henry McMaster (highly influential politician in South Carolina) has endorsed Trump. The fact that Niki Haley (current governor of South Carolina) has not endorsed Trump is inconsequential, because aside form the floods, her approval ratings are not that great and people generally do not like or trust her for the same reasons they do not like or trust Cruz or Rubio.

I expect Trump to win in South Carolina, by nothing less than a 15 point margin, perhaps even a 20 point margin; Cruz will come in second, and Bush or Rubio will come in third. Once that happens, this primary is essentially over. The establishment will then have two choices: brokered convention, or no brokered convention. There is talk among the establishment (and, in particular, among the highest in the party) that the brokered convention is becoming increasingly more likely. I cannot predict, however, what the party bosses will do, mainly because of their staggering, and historically acute and crippling incompetence and totalizing lack of foresight. I have never seen more stupid people in charge of a political party than those who currently lead the GOP. Ever. And, what is risky about stupid people is that they are unpredictable; hence the reason they are so inclined to do stupid things.

I can, however, predict the outcome of either decision. A brokered convention would result in Trump's not receiving the nomination, and thereby destroy the Republican party for probably the next generation because Trump would run as a third party and likely take more than one half of the Republican party with him, and also draw many independents. This is the most likely way that Trump loses the primary; through shady backhand deals orchestrated by manifestly stupid Republican party bosses. The absence of a brokered convention would almost certainly lead to a Trump victory, but would relegate the Republican establishment to the periphery of American politics.

tl;dr whether Trump gets the nomination or not, thus, turns on decisions that the Republican party elites make, with regard to a brokered convention.
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TN05
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2/17/2016 6:38:19 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 3:03:04 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/17/2016 2:31:07 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/17/2016 2:14:02 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:29:35 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:23:44 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.

Okay so the latest Nevada poll just came out from quinnipiac. Highly respected pollster, important pollster.

Trump is at 45. Rubio is at 19. Double Rubios vote share and Trump still beats him handily. Where does he start losing?

Trump polled fairly well in Iowa before dropping. I don't put much stock into caucus polling anyway - too hard to predict turnout.

That isn't really true. His numbers in Iowa were always lower than his national average and the polls showed a last minute collapse for him and for Cruz and a last minute surge for Rubio. Cruz pulled it out due to phenomenal ground game and through stealing Carson's votes.

It wasn't last minute. He peaked around 35% and dropped - but even the polls had him higher. Rubio and Cruz finished far better than the polls indicated.

It's true that caucuses are difficult to poll and Nevada even more so but....bruh.

Come on. 45-19? Give me a break

That's a poll that is so out of Trump's national average it's silly.

A surprise loss in South Carolina MIGHT do the trick, but idk. Trump seems to have two bases of support, those who will vote for him no matter what and those who bandwagon with whoever appears to be winning. Unfortunately for those who hate Trump, the base of people who support him no matter what is still fairly large, around 30%. He isn't going quietly and probably isn't going at all

He'll go the same way Buchannan did: very few people outside his devoted cult like him.

Bruh...I really don't want to troll you or continue to rehash old arguments, but he usually WINS head to head polls against Rubio.

Not really. Most recent ones give Rubio a lead and Cruz slightly behind Trump.

After super Tuesday, Rubio will likely be 0-18 and Trump will likely be somewhere in the vicinity of 15-3. How does someone convince the electorate that they can win when they've lost 18 contests in a row?

We're not even through two states yet and you presume to predict 18 of them? Come on.
Contra
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2/17/2016 8:51:52 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 2:14:02 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:29:35 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:23:44 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.

Okay so the latest Nevada poll just came out from quinnipiac. Highly respected pollster, important pollster.

You really sound like Trump here ^^

Trump is at 45. Rubio is at 19. Double Rubios vote share and Trump still beats him handily. Where does he start losing?

When/ if Rubio consolidates the 'mainstream Republican' vote. Namely, assuming that Kasich and Bush drop out and their voters move over to Rubio. Then the race would be competitive. IF they fail to drop out before Super Tuesday (I'm skeptical), then Rubio's path to the nomination is much more difficult.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
Contra
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2/17/2016 8:52:12 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 4:56:43 AM, thett3 wrote:
Can someone please explain to me what the path to victory for any candidate but Trump is? Because every day that goes by it seems less and less likely that they'll be able to pull it off.

Path to victory requires dropouts. Carson, Kasich, and maybe Bush would need to dropout. Trump is pretty clearly stuck with the Buchannan share (25-33%) and will have trouble advancing further, especially among evangelicals. A three-way race would necessary shift it towards someone else. Cruz has the easiest shot - he won Iowa and is substantially more conservative than Trump. Rubio has a shot as well, especially if he absorbs the Carson voters.

Yes I absolutely agree with your analysis.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
thett3
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2/17/2016 10:58:34 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 6:38:19 PM, TN05 wrote:

Okay, let's reframe this. Where does Rubio win? You said Nevada and he's getting blown the fvck out there.
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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2/17/2016 11:00:23 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 8:51:52 PM, Contra wrote:
At 2/17/2016 2:14:02 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:29:35 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:23:44 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
Florida and Nevada are two big targets. Ultimately you don't need to win every state - you can finish 2nd in proportional-delegate states. He has the hardest path, but it gets easier if Kasich and Bush drop.

Okay so the latest Nevada poll just came out from quinnipiac. Highly respected pollster, important pollster.

You really sound like Trump here ^^

Trump is at 45. Rubio is at 19. Double Rubios vote share and Trump still beats him handily. Where does he start losing?

When/ if Rubio consolidates the 'mainstream Republican' vote. Namely, assuming that Kasich and Bush drop out and their voters move over to Rubio. Then the race would be competitive. IF they fail to drop out before Super Tuesday (I'm skeptical), then Rubio's path to the nomination is much more difficult.

Except even if 100% of their votes went to Rubio (they won't) he still probably wouldn't beat Trump, and Cruz isn't going anywhere. Rubio would have a good chance of beating Trump head to head, but it's shaping up to be a 3 man race between Trump, Cruz, and whoever the establishment picks and Trump is going to win that match up, especially since he'll have the momentum.

I ask you the same thing I asked TN05...where does Rubio win?
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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2/17/2016 11:03:13 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 8:52:12 PM, Contra wrote:
At 2/15/2016 5:06:39 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/15/2016 4:56:43 AM, thett3 wrote:
Can someone please explain to me what the path to victory for any candidate but Trump is? Because every day that goes by it seems less and less likely that they'll be able to pull it off.

Path to victory requires dropouts. Carson, Kasich, and maybe Bush would need to dropout. Trump is pretty clearly stuck with the Buchannan share (25-33%) and will have trouble advancing further, especially among evangelicals. A three-way race would necessary shift it towards someone else. Cruz has the easiest shot - he won Iowa and is substantially more conservative than Trump. Rubio has a shot as well, especially if he absorbs the Carson voters.

Yes I absolutely agree with your analysis.

He's already at higher than 25-33% and he has enough second choice support to easily win a 3-way race...it isn't analysis, it's wishful thinking. When does he start losing? After he's already won South Carolina, Nevada, and most of the super Tuesday states? Fat chance.
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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2/17/2016 11:06:34 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 3:55:13 PM, YYW wrote:


Agree with much of what you say, however re: a brokered convention, it probably won't happen. If Rubio were in the position Cruz was in it might, but the establishment would prefer Trump to Cruz. That's how hatable Cruz is.

It's hard to emphasize how badly Cruz would get destroyed in the general election
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
TN05
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2/17/2016 11:58:42 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 10:58:34 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/17/2016 6:38:19 PM, TN05 wrote:

Okay, let's reframe this. Where does Rubio win? You said Nevada and he's getting blown the fvck out there.

Right now he'd likely finish 2nd or 3rd in most states. That's enough to stay in the race. Once others drops out, he's the most likely to gain support (this is actually according to polls). That's the path.

BTW, you see the new NBC/WSJ poll? Very classy polling firm, top notch. Cruz 29, Trump 27, Rubio 17. Guess going full Code Pink wasn't a good idea.
thett3
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2/18/2016 12:06:23 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 11:58:42 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 2/17/2016 10:58:34 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/17/2016 6:38:19 PM, TN05 wrote:

Okay, let's reframe this. Where does Rubio win? You said Nevada and he's getting blown the fvck out there.

Right now he'd likely finish 2nd or 3rd in most states. That's enough to stay in the race. Once others drops out, he's the most likely to gain support (this is actually according to polls). That's the path.

Read what I said to Contra. Even if he got 100% of the Bush/Kasich/Carson votes (and he won't) he still wouldn't win a 3-way race. Trump would. He would have a good shot of beating Trump 1 v 1, but that simply isn't going to happen and Trump has a big enough chunk of voters who will back him no matter what to do very very well in SC, NV, and Super Tuesday. Seriously, Rubio has to have a bunch of surprise wins to be viable and I don't see that happening. ***WHERE*** is he going to win?


BTW, you see the new NBC/WSJ poll? Very classy polling firm, top notch. Cruz 29, Trump 27, Rubio 17. Guess going full Code Pink wasn't a good idea.

I did. WSJ polls have always had Trump lower than his average. I know you're really excited, but it's almost certainly an outlier and you know this. Four polls came out today, with Trump at 41, 39, 35, and 26. Which one of those doesn't fit? http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...

I don't think GOP voters are dumb enough to pick creepy Cruz over Trump because Trump told the uncomfortable truth about the Bush family, but we'll see. What matters right now is that Teflon Don has massive leads in SC and NV.
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"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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2/18/2016 12:28:59 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/17/2016 6:38:19 PM, TN05 wrote:

>TN05 says about the Nevada poll: "That's a poll that is so out of Trump's national average it's silly"
>TN05 cites a poll even further out of Trump's national average

xD
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"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Reformist
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2/18/2016 12:40:36 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/15/2016 4:56:43 AM, thett3 wrote:
Can someone please explain to me what the path to victory for any candidate but Trump is? Because every day that goes by it seems less and less likely that they'll be able to pull it off.

Especially Rubio. What state is he going to win?

Cruz will beat your candidate. Your candidate is a dumbass. Ergo dumbasses aren't good
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