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Nevada Caucus/SC 2/20 thread

1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 6:40:20 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
Today is the Nevada caucus for the Democrats and the Republican primary in South Carolina. Disciss here.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 6:47:58 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
There has only been 3 polls in Nevada for the Dems this past week. The RCP is Clinton +2.4 One of them was a Gravis poll. Gravis gave Hillary a +11 in Iowa and usually gave vast underestimations to Sanders in NH - notably a Sanders +3 in mid January when everyone else was starting to give Sanders 20 point leads. I found it interesting.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
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-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:17:30 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
14% reporting in Nevada. Sanders up by 0.9%.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:22:53 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
Another 9% just reported, and now Clinton is up 1.3%. That's most likely all from Clark County.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:24:28 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
Women: 55-42 Clinton
Men: 55-41 Sanders
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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thett3
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2/20/2016 9:25:13 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
I'm pretty sure Clinton is going to win this. The rural counties which were expected to go big for Bernie have already reported most of their results, whereas big Clinton areas are still counting
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:25:34 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 9:24:28 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Women: 55-42 Clinton
Men: 55-41 Sanders

http://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com...

And the young voters will decide another caucus/primary.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:26:48 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
27% reporting - Clinton up 1.1%
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:27:56 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 9:25:13 PM, thett3 wrote:
I'm pretty sure Clinton is going to win this. The rural counties which were expected to go big for Bernie have already reported most of their results, whereas big Clinton areas are still counting

I'm pretty sure a shitload of Clark County (Vegas) reported at once and swung it to Clinton - and now the last few results have been mostly Sanders.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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thett3
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2/20/2016 9:29:27 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 9:27:56 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/20/2016 9:25:13 PM, thett3 wrote:
I'm pretty sure Clinton is going to win this. The rural counties which were expected to go big for Bernie have already reported most of their results, whereas big Clinton areas are still counting

I'm pretty sure a shitload of Clark County (Vegas) reported at once and swung it to Clinton - and now the last few results have been mostly Sanders.

Lets hope so.

Caucuses are so dumb
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:31:35 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
There are three counties considered up for grabs. Washoe is Clinton up 0.6%, Churchill - Clinton up 1.8%, and White Pine - Clinton up 1.6%.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:33:48 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
Sanders is now winning in Washoe and Clinton had a swing in Clark, and Clark reported a bit more. Overall Clinton has a larger lead now.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:36:05 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
33.5% in.

Clinton - 51.8%
Sanders - 48.1%
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:40:20 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 9:29:27 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 2/20/2016 9:27:56 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:

Is this the end of the line for Jeb?
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:42:11 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 9:36:05 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
33.5% in.

Clinton - 51.8%
Sanders - 48.1%

38.6%

Clinton - 51.4%
Sanders - 48.5%
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:43:15 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
I forgot to say that Storey County is exactly tied.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 9:47:10 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
41.6%

Clinton - 51.5%
Sanders - 48.4%
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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TBR
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2/20/2016 10:25:22 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 9:47:10 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
41.6%

Clinton - 51.5%
Sanders - 48.4%

SHe has a good lead, but I can't believe they are calling it right now. Its going to be close, it will be a Clinton win, but I am betting on by no more than a couple points.

Yet again, no walk-away for Clinton. There is a report that Latinos were going for Sanders. She is just not doing well, regardless if this is a win or not.
imabench
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2/20/2016 10:32:04 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
WOOOOOOHOOOOHOOOOO im far more interested in seeing what the hell happens in South Carolina for the GOP though. Carson will be done next but then the moderates start dropping out and thatll be a sight to see
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

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1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 10:37:40 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 10:32:04 PM, imabench wrote:
WOOOOOOHOOOOHOOOOO im far more interested in seeing what the hell happens in South Carolina for the GOP though. Carson will be done next but then the moderates start dropping out and thatll be a sight to see

Are you sure that Carson will drop out before Bush?
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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TBR
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2/20/2016 10:37:51 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 10:32:04 PM, imabench wrote:
WOOOOOOHOOOOHOOOOO im far more interested in seeing what the hell happens in South Carolina for the GOP though. Carson will be done next but then the moderates start dropping out and thatll be a sight to see

She is going to end with ~2% lead. That hardly qualifies as a woohoo moment. I think Clinton has something to worry about.

Super Tuesday is going to be more of a nail biter than a runaway for her if this keeps up.
EndarkenedRationalist
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2/20/2016 10:38:40 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 10:25:22 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/20/2016 9:47:10 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
41.6%

Clinton - 51.5%
Sanders - 48.4%

SHe has a good lead, but I can't believe they are calling it right now. Its going to be close, it will be a Clinton win, but I am betting on by no more than a couple points.

Yet again, no walk-away for Clinton. There is a report that Latinos were going for Sanders. She is just not doing well, regardless if this is a win or not.

Come on. This was a solid win for Clinton. Most of the reports suggest she won by large margins in predominately Hispanic areas. The earlier reports were mistaken.
imabench
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2/20/2016 10:45:24 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 10:37:40 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/20/2016 10:32:04 PM, imabench wrote:
WOOOOOOHOOOOHOOOOO im far more interested in seeing what the hell happens in South Carolina for the GOP though. Carson will be done next but then the moderates start dropping out and thatll be a sight to see

Are you sure that Carson will drop out before Bush?

About 80%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Bush sure as hell wont drop out before Carson/ He's got too much money in the bag left to quit this early. Trump, Cruz, and Rubio definitely wont drop out, which leaves only Kasich. If Kasich comes out of South Carolina with a bad result, he could drop out before Carson and Bush, which I put at 20%.

80% Carson drops out first
20% Kasich does
Bush is too stubborn to give up just yet
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
imabench
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2/20/2016 10:47:27 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 10:37:51 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/20/2016 10:32:04 PM, imabench wrote:
WOOOOOOHOOOOHOOOOO im far more interested in seeing what the hell happens in South Carolina for the GOP though. Carson will be done next but then the moderates start dropping out and thatll be a sight to see

She is going to end with ~2% lead. That hardly qualifies as a woohoo moment. I think Clinton has something to worry about.

Super Tuesday is going to be more of a nail biter than a runaway for her if this keeps up.

South Carolina stands in the way of that first though, where Clinton's lead in that state is as big as Sanders' was in NH.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Clinton pulled off a win in Nevada and is cruising to a victory in South Carolina. That'll (probably) give her enough momentum to clean up on Super Tuesday
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 10:48:16 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 10:45:24 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/20/2016 10:37:40 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 2/20/2016 10:32:04 PM, imabench wrote:
WOOOOOOHOOOOHOOOOO im far more interested in seeing what the hell happens in South Carolina for the GOP though. Carson will be done next but then the moderates start dropping out and thatll be a sight to see

Are you sure that Carson will drop out before Bush?

About 80%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Bush sure as hell wont drop out before Carson/ He's got too much money in the bag left to quit this early. Trump, Cruz, and Rubio definitely wont drop out, which leaves only Kasich. If Kasich comes out of South Carolina with a bad result, he could drop out before Carson and Bush, which I put at 20%.

80% Carson drops out first
20% Kasich does
Bush is too stubborn to give up just yet

Carson has a lot of money too - and he polls better (6% to 3%) in Nevada. Kasich does better than both of them there, so I'm calling Bush and then Carson, with Kasich sticking through Super Tuesday at the least.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
1harderthanyouthink
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2/20/2016 10:50:55 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 10:47:27 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/20/2016 10:37:51 PM, TBR wrote:
At 2/20/2016 10:32:04 PM, imabench wrote:
WOOOOOOHOOOOHOOOOO im far more interested in seeing what the hell happens in South Carolina for the GOP though. Carson will be done next but then the moderates start dropping out and thatll be a sight to see

She is going to end with ~2% lead. That hardly qualifies as a woohoo moment. I think Clinton has something to worry about.

Super Tuesday is going to be more of a nail biter than a runaway for her if this keeps up.

South Carolina stands in the way of that first though, where Clinton's lead in that state is as big as Sanders' was in NH.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Clinton pulled off a win in Nevada and is cruising to a victory in South Carolina. That'll (probably) give her enough momentum to clean up on Super Tuesday

Looking at those polls, the next week of campaigning will still be very important, considering that some of those polls - if all the undecided voters went to Sanders (they probably won't, but this is a hypothetical), some of those polls would only go to a 10-15 point lead for Clinton.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
EndarkenedRationalist
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2/20/2016 10:51:10 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
Clinton's got this. Nevada was really Sanders' last chance to turn this around.

On the Republican side, I have no idea what'll happen. Everything there is topsy-turvy.
imabench
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2/20/2016 10:51:12 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
Theyre playing 'Shake it off' at the Nevada Clinton HQ which I thought was funny as sh** XD
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
000ike
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2/20/2016 10:51:37 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
lol I can just imagine TBR on the night Hillary's declared the winner of the primary (if that does happen).... "nope -- Sanders won one too many states....Hillary's weak"
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
EndarkenedRationalist
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2/20/2016 11:12:24 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/20/2016 10:51:37 PM, 000ike wrote:
lol I can just imagine TBR on the night Hillary's declared the winner of the primary (if that does happen).... "nope -- Sanders won one too many states....Hillary's weak"

Lol.

Time to hope Kasich does well. Once he and Sanders are out, I'll have no one left to vote for.