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The Surest Way to Defeat Trump

dylancatlow
Posts: 12,244
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2/24/2016 7:06:30 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
As we inch closer to July 18th, the day when the Republican Party will announce its nomination for the 2016 presidential election, it's becoming increasingly obvious that Donald Trump is not just going to fade into irrelevance as many had hoped. Not only has he defied expectations in maintaining his initial lead, he's only gone on to improve on it, and it's not clear that he's about to slow down by any means. For better or worse, he's here to stay. While some have been quick to explain his success with troubling diagnoses of the current state of the Republican Party, his lead is in fact largely a statistical illusion owing to his relatively small but committed group of supporters, and to this election's crowded Republican field. While the first factor is largely outside of anyone's control, the second factor certainly is not.

This brings us to the obvious solution: in order to defeat Trump, the number of candidates must be reduced to just a few, preferably one. The key thing to remember is that Trump is not actually that popular among Republicans. His only advantage in this election is that everyone who's not supporting him cannot decide between the other candidates. If the rest of the field is serious about keeping Trump out of the White House, something they seem committed to at least judging by their public remarks, they need to cut the charade and put forth a serious contender to Trump who does not have to compete with three other candidates, and they need to figure out who that will be very soon. Otherwise, Trump will continue to pull ahead in the delegate count, thereby increasing his lead over whatever contender ends up running against him. If they fail at this task, we will be forced to watch this slow motion trainwreck take its full course, and America's already tarnished reputation take further hits in the court of world opinion.
walker_harris3
Posts: 273
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2/24/2016 7:36:25 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/24/2016 7:06:30 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
As we inch closer to July 18th, the day when the Republican Party will announce its nomination for the 2016 presidential election, it's becoming increasingly obvious that Donald Trump is not just going to fade into irrelevance as many had hoped. Not only has he defied expectations in maintaining his initial lead, he's only gone on to improve on it, and it's not clear that he's about to slow down by any means. For better or worse, he's here to stay. While some have been quick to explain his success with troubling diagnoses of the current state of the Republican Party, his lead is in fact largely a statistical illusion owing to his relatively small but committed group of supporters, and to this election's crowded Republican field. While the first factor is largely outside of anyone's control, the second factor certainly is not.

This brings us to the obvious solution: in order to defeat Trump, the number of candidates must be reduced to just a few, preferably one. The key thing to remember is that Trump is not actually that popular among Republicans. His only advantage in this election is that everyone who's not supporting him cannot decide between the other candidates. If the rest of the field is serious about keeping Trump out of the White House, something they seem committed to at least judging by their public remarks, they need to cut the charade and put forth a serious contender to Trump who does not have to compete with three other candidates, and they need to figure out who that will be very soon. Otherwise, Trump will continue to pull ahead in the delegate count, thereby increasing his lead over whatever contender ends up running against him. If they fail at this task, we will be forced to watch this slow motion trainwreck take its full course, and America's already tarnished reputation take further hits in the court of world opinion.

Yea, the republican party actually doesn't support Trump. He only just won in Nevada by a 20 point margin and is leading 90% of all national polls.

Who would be the serious candidate to challenge him? Rubio can't and would get demolished head to head versus Trump. Cruz? His main facet of support is from the religious right and again has and will get demolished by Trump in a head to head. He's a complete manipulative liar and a snake, and there's no way in hell America would back someone like him over Trump. Kasich and Carson? They're both only in the race now for the profit, they have absolutely no chance whatsoever.

Keep dreaming, there's no way Trump will not be the nominee.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,250
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2/24/2016 9:11:50 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/24/2016 7:06:30 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
As we inch closer to July 18th, the day when the Republican Party will announce its nomination for the 2016 presidential election, it's becoming increasingly obvious that Donald Trump is not just going to fade into irrelevance as many had hoped. Not only has he defied expectations in maintaining his initial lead, he's only gone on to improve on it, and it's not clear that he's about to slow down by any means. For better or worse, he's here to stay. While some have been quick to explain his success with troubling diagnoses of the current state of the Republican Party, his lead is in fact largely a statistical illusion owing to his relatively small but committed group of supporters, and to this election's crowded Republican field. While the first factor is largely outside of anyone's control, the second factor certainly is not.

This brings us to the obvious solution: in order to defeat Trump, the number of candidates must be reduced to just a few, preferably one. The key thing to remember is that Trump is not actually that popular among Republicans. His only advantage in this election is that everyone who's not supporting him cannot decide between the other candidates. If the rest of the field is serious about keeping Trump out of the White House, something they seem committed to at least judging by their public remarks, they need to cut the charade and put forth a serious contender to Trump who does not have to compete with three other candidates, and they need to figure out who that will be very soon. Otherwise, Trump will continue to pull ahead in the delegate count, thereby increasing his lead over whatever contender ends up running against him. If they fail at this task, we will be forced to watch this slow motion trainwreck take its full course, and America's already tarnished reputation take further hits in the court of world opinion.

The only way to beat Trump is for everyone born in the USA to drop out and fully endorse Cruz.

Trump knows this will never happen, or he would have given up already.
1Percenter
Posts: 781
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2/24/2016 10:36:19 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/24/2016 7:06:30 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
As we inch closer to July 18th, the day when the Republican Party will announce its nomination for the 2016 presidential election, it's becoming increasingly obvious that Donald Trump is not just going to fade into irrelevance as many had hoped. Not only has he defied expectations in maintaining his initial lead, he's only gone on to improve on it, and it's not clear that he's about to slow down by any means. For better or worse, he's here to stay. While some have been quick to explain his success with troubling diagnoses of the current state of the Republican Party, his lead is in fact largely a statistical illusion owing to his relatively small but committed group of supporters, and to this election's crowded Republican field. While the first factor is largely outside of anyone's control, the second factor certainly is not.

This brings us to the obvious solution: in order to defeat Trump, the number of candidates must be reduced to just a few, preferably one. The key thing to remember is that Trump is not actually that popular among Republicans. His only advantage in this election is that everyone who's not supporting him cannot decide between the other candidates. If the rest of the field is serious about keeping Trump out of the White House, something they seem committed to at least judging by their public remarks, they need to cut the charade and put forth a serious contender to Trump who does not have to compete with three other candidates, and they need to figure out who that will be very soon. Otherwise, Trump will continue to pull ahead in the delegate count, thereby increasing his lead over whatever contender ends up running against him. If they fail at this task, we will be forced to watch this slow motion trainwreck take its full course, and America's already tarnished reputation take further hits in the court of world opinion.

Wishful thinking. Cruz, as the christian candidate can't win evangelicals and Rubio, the Cuban spanish-speaker can't win Hispanics. If either of them dropped out, a significant chunk of their supporters would either go to Trump or just stay home. Carson and Kasich are irrelevant. The mythical "ceiling" you hear the pundits talking about in regards to Trump's support doesn't exist. A narrowing of the field since Iowa clearly hasn't hurt Trump (46% of the vote in Nevada obviously isn't a statistical illusion) nor has it helped Cruz or Rubio.
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,244
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2/25/2016 2:13:41 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/24/2016 10:36:19 PM, 1Percenter wrote:
The mythical "ceiling" you hear the pundits talking about in regards to Trump's support doesn't exist. A narrowing of the field since Iowa clearly hasn't hurt Trump (46% of the vote in Nevada obviously isn't a statistical illusion) nor has it helped Cruz or Rubio.

The "ceiling" to which you refer has to do with the fact that Trump's unfavorability rating is nearly twice that of Rubio and Cruz. 47 percent of Republicans don't like Trump, while only 21 percent don't like Rubio. http://fivethirtyeight.com...

That is a very considerable difference. The point is not that a narrowing of the field would cause Trump's numbers to fall per se, it's that Trump's numbers are only significant so long as his opposition remains scattered - so long as ~30 percent support is enough to win. Yes, he did very well in Nevada, and if he continues to perform as well in other states everything I've been saying is pretty much irrelevant, but where's the evidence that this will happen?
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,250
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2/25/2016 2:40:13 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/25/2016 2:13:41 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 2/24/2016 10:36:19 PM, 1Percenter wrote:
The mythical "ceiling" you hear the pundits talking about in regards to Trump's support doesn't exist. A narrowing of the field since Iowa clearly hasn't hurt Trump (46% of the vote in Nevada obviously isn't a statistical illusion) nor has it helped Cruz or Rubio.

The "ceiling" to which you refer has to do with the fact that Trump's unfavorability rating is nearly twice that of Rubio and Cruz. 47 percent of Republicans don't like Trump, while only 21 percent don't like Rubio. http://fivethirtyeight.com...

That is a very considerable difference. The point is not that a narrowing of the field would cause Trump's numbers to fall per se, it's that Trump's numbers are only significant so long as his opposition remains scattered - so long as ~30 percent support is enough to win. Yes, he did very well in Nevada, and if he continues to perform as well in other states everything I've been saying is pretty much irrelevant, but where's the evidence that this will happen?

If you add in the % of people that don't care enough about Rubio to vote for him, then you will see why he won't get the votes. Apathy is just as bad as rancor.
1Percenter
Posts: 781
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2/25/2016 4:45:01 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 2/25/2016 2:13:41 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
That is a very considerable difference. The point is not that a narrowing of the field would cause Trump's numbers to fall per se, it's that Trump's numbers are only significant so long as his opposition remains scattered - so long as ~30 percent support is enough to win. Yes, he did very well in Nevada, and if he continues to perform as well in other states everything I've been saying is pretty much irrelevant, but where's the evidence that this will happen?

First the Trump ceiling was 25. Then it was 30. Then it was 40. What is it now after he's won 3 states in a row and every demographic? The narrowing of the opposition has observably strengthened his support. This is the current trend, therefore if it continues he will continue to perform well in the remaining states, and it must be completely reversed in order for your plan to work.
xus00HAY
Posts: 1,380
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2/25/2016 5:28:51 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
It appears that Mr. Trump and his friends have bribed all the electable people to not run.
There is no way to defeat him now.
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,244
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3/2/2016 9:32:21 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/2/2016 2:28:12 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 3/2/2016 1:28:45 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
Bloomberg poll partly vindicates my claim: http://www.bloomberg.com...

Lol@ twice divorced.

50% of the voters are divorced.

If voters are depraved enough to escape miserable marriages, then they're depraved enough to impose double standards.