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The ignorance of Trump's supporters

dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
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3/4/2016 7:25:08 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
Bossyburrito, an ex-DDO member and dedicated Trump worshiper, recently sent me this: http://imgur.com...

What's its supposed to show is that Nate Silver, the famous political statistician and creator of FiveThirtyEight, is biased against Trump. In fact, it doesn't. But that didn't stop it from receiving massive support on the Trump Reddit, which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.

There are two reasons why. First, superdelegates. The Democratic primaries have this thing called superdelegates, which basically just means that the process of choosing the democratic nominee is not entirely democratic in nature (the Republican primaries have something similar, but it's not nearly as important). To win the Democractic nomination a candidate must receive a certain number of delegates (which are allocated based on the results of local democratic elections and are supposed to reflect the "will of the people") as well as superdelegates, who are basically just party elites who can vote for whichever candidate they want. As it happens, the superdelegates overwhelmingly favor Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders. In fact, if you only look at delegates, Clinton is only marginally ahead, but when you also take into account superdelegates, she's substantially ahead (her lead almost triples). None of this is calculated into the "delegate targets" put out by the FiveThirtyEight team, as they clearly explain on their website:

The Democratic National Committee includes 712 "superdelegates," usually elected officials and party leaders, whose votes at the convention are not bound to a candidate based on primary and caucus results. Because superdelegates can change their preferences before the convention, we are not including them in our delegate targets.

That's primarily why Nate Silver says Clinton has the nomination in the bag.

The second reason is that Trump has to win 50 percent of the delegates (he currently has 46 percent) to avoid a brokered convention, a scenario in which he could simply be denied the nomination even if he holds the delegate lead. Nate Silver predicts that Trump will end up with 52 percent of the delegates if he continues to meet his targets, which doesn't leave him with much room for error. Clinton does not find herself in the same situation.
thett3
Posts: 14,349
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3/4/2016 7:37:21 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
Lightweight dylancatlow doesn't understand math. Dummy!
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Reformist
Posts: 679
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3/4/2016 8:10:57 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/4/2016 7:37:21 PM, thett3 wrote:
Lightweight dylancatlow doesn't understand math. Dummy!

WHITE POWWWWAAAAAAHHHHH!
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RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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3/5/2016 5:12:08 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
Trump has gotten 34% of the votes, with no trend up or down so far. Getting a majority of the delegates therefore depends upon the winner-take-all states. There is little point in predicting, since anything is possible this year.
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
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3/5/2016 4:33:51 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/5/2016 5:12:08 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
Trump has gotten 34% of the votes, with no trend up or down so far. Getting a majority of the delegates therefore depends upon the winner-take-all states. There is little point in predicting, since anything is possible this year.

Not necessarily. He's gotten 34 percent of the votes but 47 percent of the delegates, and according to Nate Silver's analysis, the states that have yet to do their primaries look better for Trump than the states which are already finished with theirs.
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
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3/7/2016 12:18:18 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
"If I was in a room and had to kill either Aristotle, Ayn Rand, or Donald Trump, I would shoot Ayn Rand and use the empty gun to beat Aristotle to death
that is how much we need Trump"

Guess who.
EndarkenedRationalist
Posts: 14,201
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3/7/2016 12:59:04 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/7/2016 12:18:18 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
"If I was in a room and had to kill either Aristotle, Ayn Rand, or Donald Trump, I would shoot Ayn Rand and use the empty gun to beat Aristotle to death
that is how much we need Trump"

Guess who.

The better question is only one person had to die in this scenario, so what did Aristotle ever do to Bossy?
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
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3/7/2016 1:02:56 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/7/2016 12:59:04 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 3/7/2016 12:18:18 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
"If I was in a room and had to kill either Aristotle, Ayn Rand, or Donald Trump, I would shoot Ayn Rand and use the empty gun to beat Aristotle to death
that is how much we need Trump"

Guess who.

The better question is only one person had to die in this scenario, so what did Aristotle ever do to Bossy?

"There can be only one idol of the people"
YYW
Posts: 36,303
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3/7/2016 4:36:23 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/4/2016 7:37:21 PM, thett3 wrote:
Lightweight dylancatlow doesn't understand math. Dummy!

He's a choker. Once a choker, always a choker.

Marco Rubio is too stupid to pronounce "choker" too.
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YYW
Posts: 36,303
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3/7/2016 4:37:00 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/5/2016 5:12:08 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
Trump has gotten 34% of the votes, with no trend up or down so far. Getting a majority of the delegates therefore depends upon the winner-take-all states. There is little point in predicting, since anything is possible this year.

Nonsense. There is no chance that Marco Rubio will get the nomination. Therefore, anything is not possible.
Tsar of DDO
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
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3/7/2016 7:32:17 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/7/2016 4:37:00 AM, YYW wrote:
At 3/5/2016 5:12:08 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
Trump has gotten 34% of the votes, with no trend up or down so far. Getting a majority of the delegates therefore depends upon the winner-take-all states. There is little point in predicting, since anything is possible this year.

Nonsense. There is no chance that Marco Rubio will get the nomination. Therefore, anything is not possible.

If it goes to a brokered convention, even Kasich can win.
YYW
Posts: 36,303
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3/7/2016 8:21:14 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/7/2016 7:32:17 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/7/2016 4:37:00 AM, YYW wrote:
At 3/5/2016 5:12:08 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
Trump has gotten 34% of the votes, with no trend up or down so far. Getting a majority of the delegates therefore depends upon the winner-take-all states. There is little point in predicting, since anything is possible this year.

Nonsense. There is no chance that Marco Rubio will get the nomination. Therefore, anything is not possible.

If it goes to a brokered convention, even Kasich can win.

Not really
Tsar of DDO
brontoraptor
Posts: 11,685
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3/7/2016 8:22:22 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/4/2016 7:25:08 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
Bossyburrito, an ex-DDO member and dedicated Trump worshiper, recently sent me this: http://imgur.com...

What's its supposed to show is that Nate Silver, the famous political statistician and creator of FiveThirtyEight, is biased against Trump. In fact, it doesn't. But that didn't stop it from receiving massive support on the Trump Reddit, which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.

There are two reasons why. First, superdelegates. The Democratic primaries have this thing called superdelegates, which basically just means that the process of choosing the democratic nominee is not entirely democratic in nature (the Republican primaries have something similar, but it's not nearly as important). To win the Democractic nomination a candidate must receive a certain number of delegates (which are allocated based on the results of local democratic elections and are supposed to reflect the "will of the people") as well as superdelegates, who are basically just party elites who can vote for whichever candidate they want. As it happens, the superdelegates overwhelmingly favor Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders. In fact, if you only look at delegates, Clinton is only marginally ahead, but when you also take into account superdelegates, she's substantially ahead (her lead almost triples). None of this is calculated into the "delegate targets" put out by the FiveThirtyEight team, as they clearly explain on their website:

The Democratic National Committee includes 712 "superdelegates," usually elected officials and party leaders, whose votes at the convention are not bound to a candidate based on primary and caucus results. Because superdelegates can change their preferences before the convention, we are not including them in our delegate targets.

That's primarily why Nate Silver says Clinton has the nomination in the bag.

The second reason is that Trump has to win 50 percent of the delegates (he currently has 46 percent) to avoid a brokered convention, a scenario in which he could simply be denied the nomination even if he holds the delegate lead. Nate Silver predicts that Trump will end up with 52 percent of the delegates if he continues to meet his targets, which doesn't leave him with much room for error. Clinton does not find herself in the same situation.

Sanders is a Socialist which will set us up nicely for the rerise of Naziism. Hillary is a criminal. So who should we pick. We have no good choices. Only clowns.
"What Donald Trump is doing is representing the absolute heartbreak, and anger, and frustration at a government gone mad."

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