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Trump's vulnerability exposed

dylancatlow
Posts: 12,246
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3/9/2016 1:23:58 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/9/2016 1:07:03 AM, slo1 wrote:
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu...

The Iowa electronic markets, which are pretty good insight on who the money is invested on don't show the race narrowing.

The point wasn't that the field is likely to narrow, the point was that if the field does narrow Trump will have a much harder time winning. Hence, he's "vulnerable," because at this point it's still entirely possible that Kasich and Rubio will drop out of the race leaving Trump in a much tougher spot. I still think Trump is the favorite, but his win is not nearly as inevitable as some would have you believe.
slo1
Posts: 4,353
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3/9/2016 2:01:49 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/9/2016 1:23:58 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/9/2016 1:07:03 AM, slo1 wrote:
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu...

The Iowa electronic markets, which are pretty good insight on who the money is invested on don't show the race narrowing.

The point wasn't that the field is likely to narrow, the point was that if the field does narrow Trump will have a much harder time winning. Hence, he's "vulnerable," because at this point it's still entirely possible that Kasich and Rubio will drop out of the race leaving Trump in a much tougher spot. I still think Trump is the favorite, but his win is not nearly as inevitable as some would have you believe.

Understood, but i'm a bit surprised the Republican primary market doesn't reflect that increased risk.