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March 12-15 Primaries thread

1harderthanyouthink
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3/12/2016 3:29:02 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
We have a couple states going for the Republicans today, and then we have a huge day on Tuesday.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
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1harderthanyouthink
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3/12/2016 3:31:27 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
Correction: one state (Wyoming) along with D.C. for the Republicans today.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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1harderthanyouthink
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3/13/2016 4:57:26 AM
Posted: 8 months ago
Easy win for Cruz in Wyoming. Not a single vote for Kasich (caucus).

D.C. went mostly for Rubio and Kasich, taking 10 and 9 delegates, respectively.

Today for delegates:

Rubio 11, Kasich 9, Cruz 9, Trump 1.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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3/15/2016 1:36:14 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
Bumping.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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Vaarka
Posts: 7,538
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3/15/2016 1:45:48 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 1:36:14 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Bumping.

If I'm correct, NC's primaries are today.
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
1harderthanyouthink
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3/15/2016 1:47:43 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 1:45:48 PM, Vaarka wrote:
At 3/15/2016 1:36:14 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Bumping.

If I'm correct, NC's primaries are today.

Yes
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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Vaarka
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3/15/2016 1:51:25 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 1:47:43 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 3/15/2016 1:45:48 PM, Vaarka wrote:
At 3/15/2016 1:36:14 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Bumping.

If I'm correct, NC's primaries are today.

Yes

Well, this should be interesting, and I'm assuming it's gonna be close. I'm no expert in politics or the elections, but I can already guess that a large majority of college students and other people will vote for either Hillary or Trump, and because the other people worry mainly about their party winning, a majority of the republicans, even if they're against Trump, will vote for Trump so Hillary won't win, and vice versa.

But hey, I could be wrong,
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
RookieApologist
Posts: 469
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3/15/2016 2:32:45 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 1:51:25 PM, Vaarka wrote:
At 3/15/2016 1:47:43 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 3/15/2016 1:45:48 PM, Vaarka wrote:
At 3/15/2016 1:36:14 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Bumping.

If I'm correct, NC's primaries are today.

Yes

Well, this should be interesting, and I'm assuming it's gonna be close. I'm no expert in politics or the elections, but I can already guess that a large majority of college students and other people will vote for either Hillary or Trump, and because the other people worry mainly about their party winning, a majority of the republicans, even if they're against Trump, will vote for Trump so Hillary won't win, and vice versa.

But hey, I could be wrong,

Maybe I'm misreading your post, but Trump and Hillary are not running against each other in primaries. Trump is running against Cruz, Rubio and Kasich in the primaries. Clinton is running against Sanders.

In any case, it's looking as if Kasich will barely win his home state of Ohio, with Trump coming in a close 2nd. Trump looks like he is going to win Florida against Rubio by double digits, effectively ending the Rubio campaign.
Vaarka
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3/15/2016 2:33:23 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 2:32:45 PM, RookieApologist wrote:
At 3/15/2016 1:51:25 PM, Vaarka wrote:
At 3/15/2016 1:47:43 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 3/15/2016 1:45:48 PM, Vaarka wrote:
At 3/15/2016 1:36:14 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Bumping.

If I'm correct, NC's primaries are today.

Yes

Well, this should be interesting, and I'm assuming it's gonna be close. I'm no expert in politics or the elections, but I can already guess that a large majority of college students and other people will vote for either Hillary or Trump, and because the other people worry mainly about their party winning, a majority of the republicans, even if they're against Trump, will vote for Trump so Hillary won't win, and vice versa.

But hey, I could be wrong,

Maybe I'm misreading your post, but Trump and Hillary are not running against each other in primaries. Trump is running against Cruz, Rubio and Kasich in the primaries. Clinton is running against Sanders.

In any case, it's looking as if Kasich will barely win his home state of Ohio, with Trump coming in a close 2nd. Trump looks like he is going to win Florida against Rubio by double digits, effectively ending the Rubio campaign.

Again, I know little about politics XP
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
RookieApologist
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3/15/2016 2:47:07 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
"Again, I know little about politics XP"

No worries - I do suggest you become engaged though, especially if you are in the United States. Today is a HUGE day for primaries and will at least give a clearer picture of who becomes the Republican nominee for President.

If you are old enough, then I also highly encourage you to research the candidates and vote.
Vaarka
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3/15/2016 2:48:34 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 2:47:07 PM, RookieApologist wrote:
"Again, I know little about politics XP"

No worries - I do suggest you become engaged though, especially if you are in the United States. Today is a HUGE day for primaries and will at least give a clearer picture of who becomes the Republican nominee for President.

If you are old enough, then I also highly encourage you to research the candidates and vote.

I'm only 16, so I can't vote yet, hence why I've shown so little interest. Once I can vote, though, I know I will find myself becoming much more involved, but as it is now, even though I try, I find it difficult to express the interest to do so.
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
TheFlex
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3/15/2016 2:51:52 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 2:33:23 PM, Vaarka wrote:

The current elections are to figure out which Democrat is going to face against which Republican in the general election in November. So for democrats you have Bernie vs Hillary and for Republicans you have Trump vs. Cruz vs. Kasich vs. Rubio.

I don't think the college crowd will vote Clinton, I think that belongs to Sanders. The older generation of voters (like, 30+) are going to be voting for Clinton.

On the Republican side I see the majority of the votes going towards Trump (especially with the Carson endorsement) and second place for Cruz. I think Rubio will come in last leaving Kasich for third.
Vaarka
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3/15/2016 2:55:30 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 2:51:52 PM, TheFlex wrote:
At 3/15/2016 2:33:23 PM, Vaarka wrote:

The current elections are to figure out which Democrat is going to face against which Republican in the general election in November. So for democrats you have Bernie vs Hillary and for Republicans you have Trump vs. Cruz vs. Kasich vs. Rubio.

I don't think the college crowd will vote Clinton, I think that belongs to Sanders. The older generation of voters (like, 30+) are going to be voting for Clinton.
That sounds more accurate, actually. My sister seems to sway towards the democratic side, but doesn't want Hillary, as she has explained to me...so that leaves Sanders, which does make some sense among the younger crowd now that I think about it.

On the Republican side I see the majority of the votes going towards Trump (especially with the Carson endorsement) and second place for Cruz. I think Rubio will come in last leaving Kasich for third.
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
EndarkenedRationalist
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3/15/2016 5:25:18 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
Sanders can't afford to get blown out in Florida and North Carolina. He's not going to win those, but even with Michigan, he needs to keep Clinton from raking in too many delegates. Even narrowing her lead in those states could be more significant than winning Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/15/2016 5:34:51 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
I'm actually stunned that Rubio hasn't dropped out yet -- losing his home state is going to sting... a lot.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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1harderthanyouthink
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3/15/2016 7:55:05 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 5:34:51 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
I'm actually stunned that Rubio hasn't dropped out yet -- losing his home state is going to sting... a lot.

He has everything to lose.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/15/2016 7:58:37 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 7:55:05 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 3/15/2016 5:34:51 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
I'm actually stunned that Rubio hasn't dropped out yet -- losing his home state is going to sting... a lot.

He has everything to lose.

Yeah, I agree.

I read something interesting in Fivethirtyeight the other day, though, that might explain it. Apparently, a few people have run the numbers and think it's unlikely, all else equal, that Trump will win enough delegates by the time of the convention to capture the nomination if he loses Ohio, which at this point seems very likely, with Kasich holding a fairly comfortable lead (though less than Trump's over Rubio in Florida).

With Rubio's campaign manager even alluding to this "divide and conquer" strategy -- vote for Kasich in Ohio and Rubio in Florida -- I think he's banking on a contested convention where he's probably the favorite even if he loses Florida.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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xus00HAY
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3/15/2016 8:15:45 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
Actually Kasich is someone that the republicans should have taken more seriously.
Why? He would win Ohio in the general election. If he could win Ohio and a few of the battleground states, voters in the red states would have to vote for him because he is republican, so he could get enough electoral votes, that no matter how many people voted for the democrat, he would win.
imabench
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3/15/2016 8:31:57 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 7:58:37 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/15/2016 7:55:05 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 3/15/2016 5:34:51 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
I'm actually stunned that Rubio hasn't dropped out yet -- losing his home state is going to sting... a lot.

He has everything to lose.

Yeah, I agree.

I read something interesting in Fivethirtyeight the other day, though, that might explain it. Apparently, a few people have run the numbers and think it's unlikely, all else equal, that Trump will win enough delegates by the time of the convention to capture the nomination if he loses Ohio, which at this point seems very likely, with Kasich holding a fairly comfortable lead (though less than Trump's over Rubio in Florida).

With Rubio's campaign manager even alluding to this "divide and conquer" strategy -- vote for Kasich in Ohio and Rubio in Florida -- I think he's banking on a contested convention where he's probably the favorite even if he loses Florida.

It also might be that Rubio hasnt dropped out because he still has money.

Candidates can and will stay in the race as long as possible even when they are doing piss-poor in the polls as long as they have money to burn. If Rubio is still raking it in, then he has no reason to drop out and will try to simply outlast other candidates

Also nationally Rubio is doing way better than Kasich and probably wants Kasich to drop out first to see if it helps Rubio climb past Cruz
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ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/15/2016 8:37:24 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 8:31:57 PM, imabench wrote:
It also might be that Rubio hasnt dropped out because he still has money.

Isn't his campaign shedding as we speak?

Candidates can and will stay in the race as long as possible even when they are doing piss-poor in the polls as long as they have money to burn. If Rubio is still raking it in, then he has no reason to drop out and will try to simply outlast other candidates

I think that's probably the case in light of his (fairly obvious) hope of a brokered convention, but it's interesting in this case because losing Florida doesn't only mean he loses however many delegates are up for grabs -- and likely this primary as a result: he's pretty much boned even if he decides to run again (governorship, maybe?) due to the impact on his reputation. I just cannot see how this is a beneficial calculation.

Also nationally Rubio is doing way better than Kasich and probably wants Kasich to drop out first to see if it helps Rubio climb past Cruz

Better than Kasich is like "hey, Italy's economy isn't doing well.. but it's better than Greece!" or "hey, he's the tallest midget in the room!"
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imabench
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3/15/2016 8:41:54 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 8:37:24 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/15/2016 8:31:57 PM, imabench wrote:
It also might be that Rubio hasnt dropped out because he still has money.

Isn't his campaign shedding as we speak?

It may be about to go into the shredder, but at the moment it is not shredding from what I can tell

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Having 150% of the support Kasich has should give Rubio plenty of second thoughts about dropping out before Kasich does

He's pretty much boned even if he decides to run again (governorship, maybe?) due to the impact on his reputation. I just cannot see how this is a beneficial calculation.

You dont have to have a good reputation to make it in politics, you just have to have a better reputation than other people in politics.

If youre below-average in an industry that is completely incompetent, then below-average equates to extraordinary, which if Trump and Cruz takeover the GOP will be exactly what will make Rubio look competent

Also nationally Rubio is doing way better than Kasich and probably wants Kasich to drop out first to see if it helps Rubio climb past Cruz

Better than Kasich is like "hey, Italy's economy isn't doing well.. but it's better than Greece!" or "hey, he's the tallest midget in the room!"

Still makes you want to send the lesser midget out of the room first before seeing how the taller midgets stack up against each other :P
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

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ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/15/2016 8:58:23 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 8:41:54 PM, imabench wrote:
At 3/15/2016 8:37:24 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/15/2016 8:31:57 PM, imabench wrote:
It also might be that Rubio hasnt dropped out because he still has money.

Isn't his campaign shedding as we speak?

It may be about to go into the shredder, but at the moment it is not shredding from what I can tell

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Well, that's at least somewhat relieving for him.

Having 150% of the support Kasich has should give Rubio plenty of second thoughts about dropping out before Kasich does

I mean, in terms of delegates, the gap between Trump and Cruz is larger than Kasich's delegate count, lol. I just can't foresee Kasich really being relevant to this delegate count -- even if we add Rubio's and Kasich's delegates, they can't even match Cruz.

He's pretty much boned even if he decides to run again (governorship, maybe?) due to the impact on his reputation. I just cannot see how this is a beneficial calculation.

You dont have to have a good reputation to make it in politics, you just have to have a better reputation than other people in politics.

I suppose, though this is a giant blow to his political career that he could've avoided by dropping out a long time ago.

If youre below-average in an industry that is completely incompetent, then below-average equates to extraordinary, which if Trump and Cruz takeover the GOP will be exactly what will make Rubio look competent

This is true.

Also nationally Rubio is doing way better than Kasich and probably wants Kasich to drop out first to see if it helps Rubio climb past Cruz

Better than Kasich is like "hey, Italy's economy isn't doing well.. but it's better than Greece!" or "hey, he's the tallest midget in the room!"

Still makes you want to send the lesser midget out of the room first before seeing how the taller midgets stack up against each other :P

I just can't see there being any impact at all, even if Kasich were to drop out (which he probably won't, because he'll likely win Ohio).

In fact -- and I'm not sure exactly how the numbers add up -- but because Ohio is such an important state, Kasich might even catch Marco tonight. Now THAT would be absolutely embarrassing.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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imabench
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3/15/2016 9:16:32 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 8:58:23 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/15/2016 8:41:54 PM, imabench wrote:

Having 150% of the support Kasich has should give Rubio plenty of second thoughts about dropping out before Kasich does

I mean, in terms of delegates, the gap between Trump and Cruz is larger than Kasich's delegate count, lol. I just can't foresee Kasich really being relevant to this delegate count -- even if we add Rubio's and Kasich's delegates, they can't even match Cruz.

^ Part of that is simply because Cruz's homestate of Texas already voted which he won. Factor out the Texas win and Cruz is doing just as sh**ty as the rest of the field not named Trump.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

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ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/15/2016 9:20:12 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 9:16:32 PM, imabench wrote:
At 3/15/2016 8:58:23 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/15/2016 8:41:54 PM, imabench wrote:

Having 150% of the support Kasich has should give Rubio plenty of second thoughts about dropping out before Kasich does

I mean, in terms of delegates, the gap between Trump and Cruz is larger than Kasich's delegate count, lol. I just can't foresee Kasich really being relevant to this delegate count -- even if we add Rubio's and Kasich's delegates, they can't even match Cruz.

^ Part of that is simply because Cruz's homestate of Texas already voted which he won. Factor out the Texas win and Cruz is doing just as sh**ty as the rest of the field not named Trump.

It sounds a bit arbitrary to just eliminate Texas as an outlier, doesn't it? I don't keep up with delegate math (because politics isn't my comparative advantage, lol), but I bet I could find a few outliers Trump has won, if we really want to reason from an "adjusted" delegate count or something.

But, yeah, the gap between Cruz and Trump is about 90 delegates last I checked, and Kasich has 63 in total. After tonight, I bet the gap between Trump and Cruz will widen further, Kasich will win about 90 from Ohio (which has to be an outlier, if we're adjusting for outliers, lol), and Rubio's numbers will be far closer to Kasich's numbers.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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RookieApologist
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3/15/2016 10:15:28 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 9:16:32 PM, imabench wrote:
At 3/15/2016 8:58:23 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/15/2016 8:41:54 PM, imabench wrote:

Having 150% of the support Kasich has should give Rubio plenty of second thoughts about dropping out before Kasich does

I mean, in terms of delegates, the gap between Trump and Cruz is larger than Kasich's delegate count, lol. I just can't foresee Kasich really being relevant to this delegate count -- even if we add Rubio's and Kasich's delegates, they can't even match Cruz.

^ Part of that is simply because Cruz's homestate of Texas already voted which he won. Factor out the Texas win and Cruz is doing just as sh**ty as the rest of the field not named Trump.

This is like when sports announcers talk about a running back who has 150 yards rushing when 80 of it came on one play. "Take out the 80 yard run, and he had an average day!" It's just as ridiculous in that context as it is to "eliminate" the fact that Cruz dominated Texas (not to mention several other states like Iowa, Alaska, Oklahoma, and Maine).
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/15/2016 11:26:27 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
lol Rubio is down 16 points in Florida.

GOOODBYEEEEEEEEEE, MARCO. BYEEEEEEEEEEEE.

#TrumpisloveTrumpislife
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
Geographia
Posts: 1,467
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3/15/2016 11:33:51 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 11:26:27 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
lol Rubio is down 16 points in Florida.

GOOODBYEEEEEEEEEE, MARCO. BYEEEEEEEEEEEE.

#TrumpisloveTrumpislife

M A G A
A
G
A
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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3/15/2016 11:34:28 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 11:33:51 PM, Geographia wrote:
At 3/15/2016 11:26:27 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
lol Rubio is down 16 points in Florida.

GOOODBYEEEEEEEEEE, MARCO. BYEEEEEEEEEEEE.

#TrumpisloveTrumpislife

M A G A
A
G
A

What does that mean? lol.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
Geographia
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3/15/2016 11:35:24 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 11:34:28 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/15/2016 11:33:51 PM, Geographia wrote:
At 3/15/2016 11:26:27 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
lol Rubio is down 16 points in Florida.

GOOODBYEEEEEEEEEE, MARCO. BYEEEEEEEEEEEE.

#TrumpisloveTrumpislife

M A G A
A
G
A

What does that mean? lol.

Make America Great Again
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/15/2016 11:35:58 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 11:35:24 PM, Geographia wrote:
At 3/15/2016 11:34:28 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/15/2016 11:33:51 PM, Geographia wrote:
At 3/15/2016 11:26:27 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
lol Rubio is down 16 points in Florida.

GOOODBYEEEEEEEEEE, MARCO. BYEEEEEEEEEEEE.

#TrumpisloveTrumpislife

M A G A
A
G
A

What does that mean? lol.

Make America Great Again

Ahh.

Indeed!
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah