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European Spring?

Vox_Veritas
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3/12/2016 8:45:16 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
I am raising the possibility of an upcoming series of simultaneous uprisings in Western Europe which would be the largest the continent has experienced since 1848.
Each nation in Western Europe has a single language which the whole nation speaks and is known for. Italy has "Italian" (the standard form of which was originally the dialect of the region known as Tuscany). Spain has "Spanish" (that is, Castilian). France has "French" (which is native to the northern part of France). The United Kingdom has English.
This raises an obvious question: What about Venetian? What about Catalan? What about Euskara? What about Occitan? What about Welsh and Scottish? Places like Venetia, Catalonia, the Basque counties (of both Spain and France), Occitania, Wales, and Ireland are local regions of much larger and much better known countries. They have different languages and cultures from the rest of their country. In the case of Wales and Scotland, they're Celtic nations under Germanic domination. Nobody even really knows where the Basque came from. These regions have nationalist and secessionist movement. Outsiders generally assume that countries like Spain, France, and Italy are monolithic blocs; this is basically what the whole world has been tricked into thinking.
Now, in the past there has been little motivation for independence. People won't demand drastic change whenever things are going good. But times are changing; Europe is a continent in decline. Its governments are racking up debt and the economies of Western Europe are doing poorly. Rich Catalonia is suffering under the socialist government which takes much and gives back little. The Brexit may or may not screw the British economy. People are growing increasingly frustrated by how their nation's governments are letting in tons of Muslims (exacerbated by the ongoing European refugee crisis), which is also jacking up crime rates to the point where European cities that used to be safe for women at night are now rape-topias.
Basically it's a rough time to be European, and a single successful independence movement (*cough* Catalonia *cough*) could have a domino effect.
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Chloe8
Posts: 2,614
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3/12/2016 11:25:17 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/12/2016 8:45:16 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I am raising the possibility of an upcoming series of simultaneous uprisings in Western Europe which would be the largest the continent has experienced since 1848.
Each nation in Western Europe has a single language which the whole nation speaks and is known for. Italy has "Italian" (the standard form of which was originally the dialect of the region known as Tuscany). Spain has "Spanish" (that is, Castilian). France has "French" (which is native to the northern part of France). The United Kingdom has English.
This raises an obvious question: What about Venetian? What about Catalan? What about Euskara? What about Occitan? What about Welsh and Scottish? Places like Venetia, Catalonia, the Basque counties (of both Spain and France), Occitania, Wales, and Ireland are local regions of much larger and much better known countries. They have different languages and cultures from the rest of their country. In the case of Wales and Scotland, they're Celtic nations under Germanic domination. Nobody even really knows where the Basque came from. These regions have nationalist and secessionist movement. Outsiders generally assume that countries like Spain, France, and Italy are monolithic blocs; this is basically what the whole world has been tricked into thinking.
Now, in the past there has been little motivation for independence. People won't demand drastic change whenever things are going good. But times are changing; Europe is a continent in decline. Its governments are racking up debt and the economies of Western Europe are doing poorly. Rich Catalonia is suffering under the socialist government which takes much and gives back little. The Brexit may or may not screw the British economy. People are growing increasingly frustrated by how their nation's governments are letting in tons of Muslims (exacerbated by the ongoing European refugee crisis), which is also jacking up crime rates to the point where European cities that used to be safe for women at night are now rape-topias.
Basically it's a rough time to be European, and a single successful independence movement (*cough* Catalonia *cough*) could have a domino effect.

More likely brexit would lead to an independence movement among other eu states. It's the eu that is ultimately responsible for most of the continent's problems. Particularly the economic and migration ones.
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Emilrose
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3/13/2016 3:23:41 AM
Posted: 8 months ago
It still seems fairly apparent (to me) that Western Europe is in a more advanced and settled shape than the U.S--which has a significant number of civil problems and has ultimately failed to make the same kind of progress as much of Europe on varying social issues.

However, it's correct that some parts of are presently experiencing some political division (however, I personally do not see this as a major thing.) and the independent state issue is really only prevalent with regards to Spain--and it's not evolved into a problem that largely involves *violence* or military combat. Rather it's about Catalonia wanting Independence and approaching that through mainly political means. I agree that if it was to get it, it could potentially incite other areas to do the same thing--but once again this is only really applicable to Spain.

The only other cases of unrest that come to mind are those in Greece (which is economy-driven and not related to separatism) and the Ukraine. Both countries are pretty unique and certainly do not set the precedent.
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Vox_Veritas
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3/13/2016 3:39:05 AM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/13/2016 3:23:41 AM, Emilrose wrote:
It still seems fairly apparent (to me) that Western Europe is in a more advanced and settled shape than the U.S--which has a significant number of civil problems and has ultimately failed to make the same kind of progress as much of Europe on varying social issues.

However, it's correct that some parts of are presently experiencing some political division (however, I personally do not see this as a major thing.) and the independent state issue is really only prevalent with regards to Spain--and it's not evolved into a problem that largely involves *violence* or military combat. Rather it's about Catalonia wanting Independence and approaching that through mainly political means. I agree that if it was to get it, it could potentially incite other areas to do the same thing--but once again this is only really applicable to Spain.

Scotland held an independence referendum in 2014. The pro-independence side only got 44.7% of the vote so they lost...but this is still a fairly significant margin. A Brexit could potentially benefit the British economy or not have that much of an effect, but at the same time it could also potentially have a really harmful effect. If this is the case then that 44.7% could increase significantly. In 2009 the UK actually had a higher violent crime rate than the United States, and a higher number of refugees and Muslim immigrants could increase its crime rate even more. In my opinion it's certainly feasible that Scottish support for independence could grow to exceed 50%, though I find the likelihood of a devolution into violence to be very low.
The ETA was active until very recently and so was the Provisional IRA, so I can envision violence breaking out perhaps in the Basque Counties and Northern Ireland if a Catalonian war breaks out.

The only other cases of unrest that come to mind are those in Greece (which is economy-driven and not related to separatism) and the Ukraine. Both countries are pretty unique and certainly do not set the precedent.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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Emilrose
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3/13/2016 4:08:07 AM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/13/2016 3:39:05 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 3/13/2016 3:23:41 AM, Emilrose wrote:
It still seems fairly apparent (to me) that Western Europe is in a more advanced and settled shape than the U.S--which has a significant number of civil problems and has ultimately failed to make the same kind of progress as much of Europe on varying social issues.

However, it's correct that some parts of are presently experiencing some political division (however, I personally do not see this as a major thing.) and the independent state issue is really only prevalent with regards to Spain--and it's not evolved into a problem that largely involves *violence* or military combat. Rather it's about Catalonia wanting Independence and approaching that through mainly political means. I agree that if it was to get it, it could potentially incite other areas to do the same thing--but once again this is only really applicable to Spain.

Scotland held an independence referendum in 2014. The pro-independence side only got 44.7% of the vote so they lost...but this is still a fairly significant margin. A Brexit could potentially benefit the British economy or not have that much of an effect, but at the same time it could also potentially have a really harmful effect. If this is the case then that 44.7% could increase significantly. In 2009 the UK actually had a higher violent crime rate than the United States, and a higher number of refugees and Muslim immigrants could increase its crime rate even more. In my opinion it's certainly feasible that Scottish support for independence could grow to exceed 50%, though I find the likelihood of a devolution into violence to be very low.
The ETA was active until very recently and so was the Provisional IRA, so I can envision violence breaking out perhaps in the Basque Counties and Northern Ireland if a Catalonian war breaks out.

Indeed Scotland did have a vote (however, this was achieved through democratic/diplomatic measures) and didn't entail any 'devolution into violence'--which you point out. On the contrary to Scotland wanting independence suggesting a problem with the U.K or the rest of Europe--it could in fact be viewed as evidence of democratic activity and citizens (genuinely) getting a chance to alter things if they so wish.

In the case of Spain, it's a little different--once again, the independence movement in Scotland is a little more healthier. What's occurring in Catalonia and to some extent the Basque region, is primarily the result of governmental and economical mismanagement within Spain--which over the years has been a significant problem. Spain is a country that until the 1970's, was under fascist control; thus it essentially had to make huge amounts of progress within a relatively short time-span and the inevitable result has been high amounts of corruption, etc. *If* Spain was presently in a better economic state, separatism would be less of an issue.

Regarding the E.U referendum, I think the U.K will probably vote to remain. If it did leave however, the eventual economic outcome cannot really be predicted. Even if things were to be a little 'slow' or economical issues presented themselves, it still doesn't mean that Scotland will get another vote or indeed ever leave the U.K. As for the migrant/refugee crisis, the U.K (in comparison to other parts of Europe, in the Schengen area.) is fairly well-protected and arguably one of the more reticent countries in accepting people.


The only other cases of unrest that come to mind are those in Greece (which is economy-driven and not related to separatism) and the Ukraine. Both countries are pretty unique and certainly do not set the precedent.
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