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March 15th could be do-or-die for Bernie

imabench
Posts: 21,230
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3/12/2016 8:49:23 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
On March 5th a swatch of huge states host primary contests. They are Florida, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri, which put together have about 800 delegates up for grabs. (The previous 22 state contests combined add up to about 1300)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Bernie is currently down by about 200 delegates not factoring in superdelegates. Bernie therefore needs wins in at least half of the states listed above just to keep up with Hillary in the delegate count, depending on which states are won and by how much.... To only win two states at all would result in Hillary pulling further away in the delegate count, which is a huge problem for Bernie if that happens, since there arent that many big states left.

Dems dont use winner-take-all in their primaries like the GOP does.... All states apparently are divided up proportionally. After the 15th, the remaining states with delegate counts over 100 are Washington, New York, California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland has 95 which is close enough.... Combined together these states add up to about 1200 delegates.....

Because Dems dont use winner-take-all in any states though, if Sanders wins all of the remaining big states after the 15th by a 2-1 margin over Hillary, he'll get 800 delegates, and Hillary will get the remaining 400, which means if Bernie absolutely wallops Hillary in each and every one of the big remaining states after the 15th, he'll only gain a margin of +400 delegates over Hillary.

And he's already down by 200 walking into the primary's on the 15th.

Its pretty reasonable to conclude that Bernie wont every big state after the 15th, let alone by a 66%-33% margin, even if his fans wishes that he would.... This means that the roof of delegates Bernie can gain in big states on Hillary after the 15th is under 400 even in the best of circumstances.

So to already be down by 200, with a max gain of 300 in big states after the 15th, makes the 15th truly do-or-die for Bernie where he needs to gain ground on Hillary in terms of delegates. He needs to win at least 3 states, and do it by a big margin also, otherwise the delegates will just be split 50-50 and Bernie is still where he is now, down by about 200.

Of the remaining states after today that are NOT big states, i.e. delegates up for grabs < 90, there are 23 contests.

3,000 total remaining - minus the 1200 that are in big states after March 15 - minus the 800 being decided on the 15th = 1000 remaining delegates in these 23 smaller contests put together..... If Bernie wins all of these smaller states by a 2-1 margin over Hillary, he would win 667 and Hillary would win 333. Gaining just over 300

But again, he's already down by 200 today

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Basic summary:

Here are the scenario's of what it would take for Bernie to beat Hillary after March 15th depending on how the March 15th primaries go.

1 (Current polls) - Hillary wins all states on March 15th by a 60-40 margin = Her lead expands from 200 to 360..... Bernie would either have to 1) Win every small contest after the 15th (23 primary's) by a 67-33 margin and then beat Hillary in over half of the remaining big states to beat her..... or 2) Win all remaining big states by a 60-40 margin and then win at least >50% of all small contests to beat Hillary

2 (Most probable) - Hillary and Bernie split states on March 15th = Hillary still up by roughly 200 delegates..... With 2200 delegates remaining and all of them being awarded proportionately, Bernie would need to win every remaining contest by about 55% to 45% (1210 - 990) just to force a tie

3 (Best case scenario for Bernie) - Bernie wins all states on March 15 by a 60-40 margin = Hillary's lead goes from +200 to < 50, the primary essentially starts over from scratch, and whoever wins >50% of the remaining vote in remaining contests wins the nomination.

Therefore statistically speaking: Bernie needs to win every state on March 15th by a 60-40 margin just to force 50-50 odds of winning the nomination in the rest of the primary's..... If he doesnt, then the chances of him clawing his way back and beating Hillary becomes almost impossible given her already large lead in delegates from previous state contests.

And this doesnt even take superdelegates into account
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
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Vox_Veritas
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3/12/2016 8:56:37 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
What I fail to understand is why people are still acting like Bernie has a chance. The MAIN REASON why journalists this election season have focused so much on the Republican candidates is because the Democratic race is boring and incredibly predictable.
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imabench
Posts: 21,230
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3/12/2016 9:06:22 PM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 3/12/2016 8:56:37 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
What I fail to understand is why people are still acting like Bernie has a chance.

Same reason why Bernie is getting support in the first place: Willful ignorance

The MAIN REASON why journalists this election season have focused so much on the Republican candidates is because the Democratic race is boring and incredibly predictable.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
imabench
Posts: 21,230
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3/13/2016 2:17:31 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
Bump. I did way too much math for this to end up at the bottom of the forums
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015