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Trump Will not be Elected President
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3/16/2016 9:00:51 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
In the hysteria that is setting in with Trump's near assurance of securing the Republican nomination, I think some reason is appropriate to apply regarding his actual chances.
Recently, Trump has often been compared to Adolf Hitler, and I find some of the comparisons compelling. However, the differences in the culture, historical circumstances, and political development in the United States make this a rather different scenario. In my post below, I will use this as a backdrop for my reasons why Trump will not be elected President.
1. Unlike Hitler, Trump's extreme ideas are widely known by most Americans who don't already support him. The NSDP was a rather unknown commodity politically which had only 3% of the population's vote just four years prior. However, anger at the Liberals and Conservatives and the economic failure of the German Mark inspired most public support for the NSDP to come from those simply angry at the Establishment. There are many similarities here, but what is different is two fold, 1) as previously stated Trump's violent and bigoted rhetoric is already widely known and most of the population doesn't share his racist views, 2) there isn't a significant enough crisis to inspire enough people to vote for such a radical candidate.
2. While new politicians seem to endorse Trump every week, the Governor of Florida just announced his, there seems to be even more individuals who openly criticize him. While this galvanizes his voter base to support him even more passionately, it most certainly is a cause of alienation for his movement as social and political pressure is mounting.
3. Hitler had a well organized party that was unified behind him, while Trump is only more recently gaining endorsements from the Establishment. The problem is, that Establishment is so strongly against him that most are predicting the dissolution of the Republican Party as we know it if he is nominated. Indeed, such might be the case if the GOP refuses to nominate them and permanently alienates a huge voter base they previously possessed.
4. We live in a period where massive social reforms that took centuries to achieve are firmly in place, when in Germany, anti-Semitic values were still very common. Not to mention the fact that the Nazi's juxtaposed themselves more so with Communists than with the threat of Jews, which we have no clear political party that resembles the Bolshevists of the early 20th Century (sorry Bernie haters).
5. While we are coming out of costly wars, we don't live in the shadow of anything resembling the humiliation of the treaty of Versailles. Without which, Hitler likely would have never come to power (though it is hard to imagine any favorable outcome to WW1).
6. It is extremely important to note that Hitler LOST in his election attempt, and was only later appointed by Hindenburg at a meeting when it wasn't even clear he would come out as Chancellor or Vice Chancellor. The political process in the United States is too firmly in place, and the differences between the Weimar Republic and the United States is too vast in stability and power to allow for any kind of major upheaval outside of the voting process.
In order for demagogues such as Trump to achieve ultimate political power, there has to be a series of convenient circumstances which allows for enough public support for such an individual to be elected. As just noted, Hitler himself couldn't even garner that support in 1933, and had to come to power through more manipulative means. Those who oppose Trump are unlikely to be convinced, even with the alternative being Hillary due to their moral values.
These are just some of the reasons why I am predicting Trump will not be elected President, even if he manages to secure the Republican nomination, which I think he will.