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Primary Turnout Irrelevant

bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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3/20/2016 8:58:25 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
From 538:

"voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.

Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries."


[http://fivethirtyeight.com...]

Thoughts? Reactions? Comments?
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F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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3/20/2016 9:03:45 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
Agree to an extent. But then, Trump has mobilized a passionate base of voters who probably wouldn't have voted if they didn't strongly support and like him. If he gets the nomination, it's possible those voters will turn out in great numbers in addition to the republicans who were already going to vote in the election. But, opposition to Trump means his opposers will also vote in greater numbers. If there's one good thing Trump did amongst this mess, he's probably contributed to this years election potentially having a high voter turnout.
Maikuru
Posts: 9,112
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3/20/2016 9:05:08 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/20/2016 8:58:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
From 538:

"voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.

Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries."


[http://fivethirtyeight.com...]

Thoughts? Reactions? Comments?

Makes sense in theory, and I've heard some of talking heads saying the same thing. However, if we assume that Trump is tapping into previously disinterested or disenfranchised voters, we can reasonably expect a bump in turn-out for the GOP in that respect. This doesn't mean, if Trump is the nominee, he won't lose voters elsewhere.
"You assume I wouldn't want to burn this whole place to the ground."
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Maikuru
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3/20/2016 9:05:48 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
Clearly should have refreshed the page before posting.
"You assume I wouldn't want to burn this whole place to the ground."
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bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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3/20/2016 9:06:16 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/20/2016 9:03:45 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
Agree to an extent. But then, Trump has mobilized a passionate base of voters who probably wouldn't have voted if they didn't strongly support and like him. If he gets the nomination, it's possible those voters will turn out in great numbers in addition to the republicans who were already going to vote in the election. But, opposition to Trump means his opposers will also vote in greater numbers. If there's one good thing Trump did amongst this mess, he's probably contributed to this years election potentially having a high voter turnout.

I think that Trump will mobilize votes both for and against him, so I am not sure whether his running would be a net gain for the GOP in that sense. What concerns me more about his voters is not the number of them that have turned out, but who has turned out for him--blue collar workers that the Dems need in the Midwest, for instance.
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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

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bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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3/20/2016 9:07:47 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/20/2016 9:05:08 PM, Maikuru wrote:
At 3/20/2016 8:58:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
From 538:

"voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.

Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries."


[http://fivethirtyeight.com...]

Thoughts? Reactions? Comments?

Makes sense in theory, and I've heard some of talking heads saying the same thing. However, if we assume that Trump is tapping into previously disinterested or disenfranchised voters, we can reasonably expect a bump in turn-out for the GOP in that respect. This doesn't mean, if Trump is the nominee, he won't lose voters elsewhere.

He may turnout some, and disincentivize others, for sure. But yeah, there is a risk that he will boost GOP turnout in a general, which Hillary won't/shouldn't take lightly.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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vortex86
Posts: 572
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3/24/2016 3:31:04 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/20/2016 8:58:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
From 538:

"voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.

Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries."


[http://fivethirtyeight.com...]

Thoughts? Reactions? Comments?

In most instances this would be true, however I think however the passion of those that are out voting in the Democratic primaries (Sanders voters), combined with the exponentially reducing favorability of her would come into play when you look at voter turnout.
bsh1
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3/24/2016 5:18:38 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/24/2016 3:31:04 PM, vortex86 wrote:
At 3/20/2016 8:58:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
From 538:

"voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.

Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries."


[http://fivethirtyeight.com...]

Thoughts? Reactions? Comments?

In most instances this would be true, however I think however the passion of those that are out voting in the Democratic primaries (Sanders voters), combined with the exponentially reducing favorability of her would come into play when you look at voter turnout.

IDK...I think the same passion was there on both sides for Obama. My mom hated Obama for "stealing" Hillary's nomination, but she turned out to vote anyway...mostly because she was scared that McCain would die and leave us with Palin. And Trump is a lot scarier than Palin to people like my mom.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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vortex86
Posts: 572
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3/24/2016 5:25:40 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/24/2016 5:18:38 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 3/24/2016 3:31:04 PM, vortex86 wrote:
At 3/20/2016 8:58:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
From 538:

"voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.

Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries."


[http://fivethirtyeight.com...]

Thoughts? Reactions? Comments?

In most instances this would be true, however I think however the passion of those that are out voting in the Democratic primaries (Sanders voters), combined with the exponentially reducing favorability of her would come into play when you look at voter turnout.

IDK...I think the same passion was there on both sides for Obama. My mom hated Obama for "stealing" Hillary's nomination, but she turned out to vote anyway...mostly because she was scared that McCain would die and leave us with Palin. And Trump is a lot scarier than Palin to people like my mom.

Except Hillary's favorability was no where near as low as it is now, you have to take that into account as well.
bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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3/24/2016 5:32:05 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/24/2016 5:25:40 PM, vortex86 wrote:
At 3/24/2016 5:18:38 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 3/24/2016 3:31:04 PM, vortex86 wrote:
At 3/20/2016 8:58:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
From 538:

"voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.

Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries."


[http://fivethirtyeight.com...]

Thoughts? Reactions? Comments?

In most instances this would be true, however I think however the passion of those that are out voting in the Democratic primaries (Sanders voters), combined with the exponentially reducing favorability of her would come into play when you look at voter turnout.

IDK...I think the same passion was there on both sides for Obama. My mom hated Obama for "stealing" Hillary's nomination, but she turned out to vote anyway...mostly because she was scared that McCain would die and leave us with Palin. And Trump is a lot scarier than Palin to people like my mom.

Except Hillary's favorability was no where near as low as it is now, you have to take that into account as well.

Trumps are worse. I am not too concerned.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...