Total Posts:15|Showing Posts:1-15
Jump to topic:

Why Sanders wins the caucuses

1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/24/2016 7:20:43 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
I was reading a Huffington Post opinion piece on why this person thinks Bernie Sanders is winning the primary. I didn't really agree with the conclusion, but he brought up a really interesting thing: Clinton does a lot worse among voters who do not submit early ballots.

When 17.3% of ballots were counted (when the piece was written), Sanders lead Clinton in Arizona with ballots submitted on the date of the primary 50.2% to 49.8%.

In North Carolina, votes submitted on their primary date only favored Clinton 52-48.

Aside from broader implications that can be debated at length, a clear takeaway for me here is that this explains why Sanders does so well in caucuses - early voters favor Clinton by huge margins - which can be explained by the concept of Sanders' support correlating with name recognition and therefore not having as many supporters when many submit early votes as the day of the primary - and caucuses require voters to be present.

Any thoughts on that?
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/24/2016 7:25:51 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/24/2016 7:20:43 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I was reading a Huffington Post opinion piece on why this person thinks Bernie Sanders is winning the primary. I didn't really agree with the conclusion, but he brought up a really interesting thing: Clinton does a lot worse among voters who do not submit early ballots.

When 17.3% of ballots were counted (when the piece was written), Sanders lead Clinton in Arizona with ballots submitted on the date of the primary 50.2% to 49.8%.

In North Carolina, votes submitted on their primary date only favored Clinton 52-48.

Aside from broader implications that can be debated at length, a clear takeaway for me here is that this explains why Sanders does so well in caucuses - early voters favor Clinton by huge margins - which can be explained by the concept of Sanders' support correlating with name recognition and therefore not having as many supporters when many submit early votes as the day of the primary - and caucuses require voters to be present.

Any thoughts on that?

Sanders just didn't have the time to
1) Get his name out
2) Explain why "socialist" isn't a dirty word

Old people, and more conservative democrats were Clintons regardless, but Sanders could have captured a much greater percentage of early primary's if anyone knew just who the he11 is he.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/24/2016 7:27:26 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
And... I hate to admit, but just like Clinton vs. Obama, she has turned me from an "OK, if she gets the nomination" to a "well, sh1t! I may just HAVE to vote for Clinton"
YYW
Posts: 36,289
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/25/2016 3:51:34 AM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/24/2016 7:27:26 PM, TBR wrote:
And... I hate to admit, but just like Clinton vs. Obama, she has turned me from an "OK, if she gets the nomination" to a "well, sh1t! I may just HAVE to vote for Clinton"

Not me. I'd rather watch the country burn under Trump, than watch it fade away under Clinton. Trump paves the way for Warren or another Sanders in four years. Clinton is 8 years of democratic establishment rule.
Tsar of DDO
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/25/2016 5:12:37 AM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/25/2016 2:50:20 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
I think it means young people are lazy.

That...has nothing to do with early voting...
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/25/2016 1:06:12 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/25/2016 5:12:37 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 3/25/2016 2:50:20 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
I think it means young people are lazy.

That...has nothing to do with early voting...

Well, if you like to procrastinate, wouldn't you try to put off voting?
tajshar2k
Posts: 2,383
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/25/2016 2:24:24 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/24/2016 7:20:43 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I was reading a Huffington Post opinion piece on why this person thinks Bernie Sanders is winning the primary. I didn't really agree with the conclusion, but he brought up a really interesting thing: Clinton does a lot worse among voters who do not submit early ballots.

When 17.3% of ballots were counted (when the piece was written), Sanders lead Clinton in Arizona with ballots submitted on the date of the primary 50.2% to 49.8%.

In North Carolina, votes submitted on their primary date only favored Clinton 52-48.

Aside from broader implications that can be debated at length, a clear takeaway for me here is that this explains why Sanders does so well in caucuses - early voters favor Clinton by huge margins - which can be explained by the concept of Sanders' support correlating with name recognition and therefore not having as many supporters when many submit early votes as the day of the primary - and caucuses require voters to be present.

Any thoughts on that?

There's always Gary Johnson....

He's actually polling at 11% now.
"In Guns We Trust" Tajshar2k
imabench
Posts: 21,219
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/25/2016 2:37:33 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/24/2016 7:20:43 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I was reading a Huffington Post opinion piece

Okay that was your first mistake.

on why this person thinks Bernie Sanders is winning the primary. I didn't really agree with the conclusion, but he brought up a really interesting thing: Clinton does a lot worse among voters who do not submit early ballots.

When 17.3% of ballots were counted (when the piece was written), Sanders lead Clinton in Arizona with ballots submitted on the date of the primary 50.2% to 49.8%.

In North Carolina, votes submitted on their primary date only favored Clinton 52-48.

Aside from broader implications that can be debated at length, a clear takeaway for me here is that this explains why Sanders does so well in caucuses - early voters favor Clinton by huge margins - which can be explained by the concept of Sanders' support correlating with name recognition and therefore not having as many supporters when many submit early votes as the day of the primary - and caucuses require voters to be present.

Any thoughts on that?

It could very well be that Bernie's base doesnt know its time to vote until election day itself rolls around.... Clinton has support among seniors and frequent voters who already know how the primaries work, I imagine that Sanders gets a lot of his support from people who were never involved in primary voting before or are first-time voters themselves. His base is built around millennials after all.....

TL;DR: Its probably just a generational thing since the voting bases between Hillary and Sanders are so different
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/25/2016 3:02:05 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/25/2016 1:06:12 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/25/2016 5:12:37 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 3/25/2016 2:50:20 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
I think it means young people are lazy.

That...has nothing to do with early voting...

Well, if you like to procrastinate, wouldn't you try to put off voting?

He inherently has less supporters during early voting due to him having to get his name out. That should probably be less of a problem as more states vote, but it has probably hurt him a bit already.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/25/2016 3:14:46 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/25/2016 3:51:34 AM, YYW wrote:
At 3/24/2016 7:27:26 PM, TBR wrote:
And... I hate to admit, but just like Clinton vs. Obama, she has turned me from an "OK, if she gets the nomination" to a "well, sh1t! I may just HAVE to vote for Clinton"

Not me. I'd rather watch the country burn under Trump, than watch it fade away under Clinton. Trump paves the way for Warren or another Sanders in four years. Clinton is 8 years of democratic establishment rule.

If I knew I only have to wait 4 years to get Warren, I would go work for Trump(tm).
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/25/2016 3:24:50 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/25/2016 2:37:33 PM, imabench wrote:
At 3/24/2016 7:20:43 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I was reading a Huffington Post opinion piece

Okay that was your first mistake.

Hey - I did leave out the more outlandish conclusion.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/25/2016 7:14:43 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/25/2016 3:02:05 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 3/25/2016 1:06:12 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/25/2016 5:12:37 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 3/25/2016 2:50:20 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
I think it means young people are lazy.

That...has nothing to do with early voting...

Well, if you like to procrastinate, wouldn't you try to put off voting?

He inherently has less supporters during early voting due to him having to get his name out. That should probably be less of a problem as more states vote, but it has probably hurt him a bit already.

That's probably a major factor. (I was kinda joking btw.)
Dark-one
Posts: 211
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
3/28/2016 7:05:37 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/25/2016 2:37:33 PM, imabench wrote:
At 3/24/2016 7:20:43 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I was reading a Huffington Post opinion piece

Okay that was your first mistake.


HAHAHAHAH!