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California will decide the GOP nomination

imabench
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4/20/2016 3:39:33 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
In the GOP race, a candidate needs to clinch 1237 delegates out of 2472 total to clinch the nomination (1237 is 1/2 of 2472 + 1). Trump currently has 845, meaning he only needs 390 or so more to win the primary

There are 15 state contests left that put together have about 675 delegates up for grabs, 9 of the 15 being winner-take all states.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Fresh off an a** kicking in NY, Trump has 20 point leads in polls for Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Connecticut which are the next contests up for grabs for the GOP. Delaware and Rhode Island are also on the same date, but combined only offer 40 delegates that can be won

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

If the polls stay the way they are, Trump will win all delegates in Pennsylvania and Maryland, which are winner take all states. That will add to Trump's delegate count, bringing him up to 954, meaning he needs 280 more to win.

Since Trump is doing very well in the NE, it is likely he will win the remaining NE states of Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Wins here will give him an added total of about 35 delegates in addition to Pennsylvania and Maryland, assuming he doesnt win by such a large margin that he doesnt end up taking ALL the delegates up for grabs, with Cruz and Kasich getting scraps

Once the NE closes, Trump will have approximately 990 delegates in his pocket even if he is unlucky, possibly breaking 1000 if he is lucky.

That leaves 490 remaining delegates up for grabs, with Trump needing around 250 to clinch the nomination. Cruz on the other hand, assuming he gets some delegates for second place finishes in NE states (which is 50-50 at this point) needs over 600 to win.

Cruz needs over 600 to win, but there are only 490 up for grabs

1 week from now on April 27th, assuming Trump dominates the rest of the NE like polls indicate he will, it will become mathematically impossible for Cruz to win the nomination by shutting out Trump. Kasich meanwhile has been mathematically eliminated from winning since mid March.

This leaves two possible outcomes: Trump wins fair and square, or Cruz and Kasich pull off enough surprises to force a contested convention. Lets look at the how California will likely have a massive role in picking the outcome

======================================================================

The next contests after the NE is Indiana, smack in the neighborhood of states Trump has won already

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

If Indiana goes the way of Michigan, Illinois, and Kentucky, than Trump will win. Indiana is winner take all, so Trump would get all delegates up for grabs, which comes out to 57. Trump would now need about 190 of the remaining 430 delegates to win outright.

Nebraska and West Virginia come neck a week after Indiana. While West Virginia is square in trump territory, Nebraska is in the part of the country where Cruz excels. Nebraska is Winner take all, but West Virginia is far more complicated, to the point that even if Trump wins the state in a landslide, he could still lose delegates

http://www.politico.com...

Trump will probably cough up Nebraska and may only get half of the delegates of West Virgina, giving him only 17 delegates from both states. Trump will now only need about 170 delegates to win, but only have 360 remaining delegates to work with.

After those states vote, the contest moves to the west coast where Oregon and Washington are up for grabs, but also award delegates proportionately. Its a complete mystery which candidates will poll well on the West Coast, but the fact that they are proportional system states indicate that Trump will walk away with at least something, since he has finished first or second in almost every state race since it became a 3 horse race.

Trump will likely walk away with 30 to 40 delegates after Oregon and Washington, meaning he still needs about 130 to 140 to win, with only 280 delegates left to win.

After Oregon and Washington, the final 5 states vote. 1 is New Jersey, a NE state where Trump will likely crush the competition, and its also a winner take all state, meaning Trump will likely get all of the state's 51 delegates. That would put him at 70-80 delegates away from winning the contest with 230 delegates still available

The four other states up for grabs are California, New Mexico, Montana, and South Dakota. South Dakota and Montana are square in Cruz territory, and both are winner take all, meaning Trump will probably walk away with nothing from both states. This leaves him still 70-80 delegates short, but now only gives him 185 or so delegates to win

New Mexico could be won by either Trump or Cruz, but because its a proportional system, both Trump and Cruz will likely walk away with something from the state. With 24 delegates up for grabs, Trump could win 10 to 15, meaning he needs 55-70 delegates left to win and 170 delegates available

ALL 170 OF THOSE REMAINING DELEGATES ARE HELD BY CALIFORNIA, WHICH IS A WINNER TAKE ALL STATE.

If Trump wins California, its game over. he could have surprising losses or get completely whipped in proportional state contests, and still clinch the nomination outright thanks to California. Winning all 170 delegates would give Trump 100 delegates worth of wiggle room to still win the nomination, meaning he could lose New Jersey and still win the nomination if he carries California. If he wins Jersey and California, then he can lose Indiana and still be in good shape.

But if he DOESNT win California, he would need surprising wins in states Ted Cruz does very well in to offset the loss. He would need to win Washington and Oregon by landslides, IN ADDITION to stealing Montana and South Dakota from Cruz to negate a loss in California.

Even if Kasich steals some delegates from Cruz in certain states, it wouldnt matter, because Cruz is already mathematically eliminated from winning after the remaining NE states vote, meaning that Kasich would only be keeping delegates from Trump, playing towards a contested convention.

========================================================================

Based on how remaining states will probably play out (based on current polls for NE states, and the voting patterns of neighboring states for state primaries after that), then there is a very probably chance (90%) that California will decide whether Trump wins the GOP primary outright, or triggers a contested convention, where all hell could break loose.

For the contest to be decided before California, Cruz or Trump would have to win states they are projected to win by a heavy amount, and also steal surprising victories in numerous states they were not projected to win. California holds 90% of the sway in the outcome, the remaining 10% is held collectively by New Jersey, Indiana, Washington, Oregon, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

========================================================================

TL;DR = California will decide the GOP nomination unless Trump or Cruz suffers spectacular meltdowns in contests for states they are projected to win.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

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1harderthanyouthink
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4/20/2016 3:48:28 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
I think New York sealed it.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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vortex86
Posts: 559
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4/20/2016 3:52:43 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 3:39:33 PM, imabench wrote:
In the GOP race, a candidate needs to clinch 1237 delegates out of 2472 total to clinch the nomination (1237 is 1/2 of 2472 + 1). Trump currently has 845, meaning he only needs 390 or so more to win the primary

There are 15 state contests left that put together have about 675 delegates up for grabs, 9 of the 15 being winner-take all states.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Fresh off an a** kicking in NY, Trump has 20 point leads in polls for Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Connecticut which are the next contests up for grabs for the GOP. Delaware and Rhode Island are also on the same date, but combined only offer 40 delegates that can be won

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

If the polls stay the way they are, Trump will win all delegates in Pennsylvania and Maryland, which are winner take all states. That will add to Trump's delegate count, bringing him up to 954, meaning he needs 280 more to win.

Since Trump is doing very well in the NE, it is likely he will win the remaining NE states of Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Wins here will give him an added total of about 35 delegates in addition to Pennsylvania and Maryland, assuming he doesnt win by such a large margin that he doesnt end up taking ALL the delegates up for grabs, with Cruz and Kasich getting scraps

Once the NE closes, Trump will have approximately 990 delegates in his pocket even if he is unlucky, possibly breaking 1000 if he is lucky.

That leaves 490 remaining delegates up for grabs, with Trump needing around 250 to clinch the nomination. Cruz on the other hand, assuming he gets some delegates for second place finishes in NE states (which is 50-50 at this point) needs over 600 to win.

Cruz needs over 600 to win, but there are only 490 up for grabs

1 week from now on April 27th, assuming Trump dominates the rest of the NE like polls indicate he will, it will become mathematically impossible for Cruz to win the nomination by shutting out Trump. Kasich meanwhile has been mathematically eliminated from winning since mid March.

This leaves two possible outcomes: Trump wins fair and square, or Cruz and Kasich pull off enough surprises to force a contested convention. Lets look at the how California will likely have a massive role in picking the outcome

======================================================================

The next contests after the NE is Indiana, smack in the neighborhood of states Trump has won already

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

If Indiana goes the way of Michigan, Illinois, and Kentucky, than Trump will win. Indiana is winner take all, so Trump would get all delegates up for grabs, which comes out to 57. Trump would now need about 190 of the remaining 430 delegates to win outright.

Nebraska and West Virginia come neck a week after Indiana. While West Virginia is square in trump territory, Nebraska is in the part of the country where Cruz excels. Nebraska is Winner take all, but West Virginia is far more complicated, to the point that even if Trump wins the state in a landslide, he could still lose delegates

http://www.politico.com...

Trump will probably cough up Nebraska and may only get half of the delegates of West Virgina, giving him only 17 delegates from both states. Trump will now only need about 170 delegates to win, but only have 360 remaining delegates to work with.

After those states vote, the contest moves to the west coast where Oregon and Washington are up for grabs, but also award delegates proportionately. Its a complete mystery which candidates will poll well on the West Coast, but the fact that they are proportional system states indicate that Trump will walk away with at least something, since he has finished first or second in almost every state race since it became a 3 horse race.

Trump will likely walk away with 30 to 40 delegates after Oregon and Washington, meaning he still needs about 130 to 140 to win, with only 280 delegates left to win.

After Oregon and Washington, the final 5 states vote. 1 is New Jersey, a NE state where Trump will likely crush the competition, and its also a winner take all state, meaning Trump will likely get all of the state's 51 delegates. That would put him at 70-80 delegates away from winning the contest with 230 delegates still available

The four other states up for grabs are California, New Mexico, Montana, and South Dakota. South Dakota and Montana are square in Cruz territory, and both are winner take all, meaning Trump will probably walk away with nothing from both states. This leaves him still 70-80 delegates short, but now only gives him 185 or so delegates to win

New Mexico could be won by either Trump or Cruz, but because its a proportional system, both Trump and Cruz will likely walk away with something from the state. With 24 delegates up for grabs, Trump could win 10 to 15, meaning he needs 55-70 delegates left to win and 170 delegates available

ALL 170 OF THOSE REMAINING DELEGATES ARE HELD BY CALIFORNIA, WHICH IS A WINNER TAKE ALL STATE.

If Trump wins California, its game over. he could have surprising losses or get completely whipped in proportional state contests, and still clinch the nomination outright thanks to California. Winning all 170 delegates would give Trump 100 delegates worth of wiggle room to still win the nomination, meaning he could lose New Jersey and still win the nomination if he carries California. If he wins Jersey and California, then he can lose Indiana and still be in good shape.

But if he DOESNT win California, he would need surprising wins in states Ted Cruz does very well in to offset the loss. He would need to win Washington and Oregon by landslides, IN ADDITION to stealing Montana and South Dakota from Cruz to negate a loss in California.

Even if Kasich steals some delegates from Cruz in certain states, it wouldnt matter, because Cruz is already mathematically eliminated from winning after the remaining NE states vote, meaning that Kasich would only be keeping delegates from Trump, playing towards a contested convention.

========================================================================

Based on how remaining states will probably play out (based on current polls for NE states, and the voting patterns of neighboring states for state primaries after that), then there is a very probably chance (90%) that California will decide whether Trump wins the GOP primary outright, or triggers a contested convention, where all hell could break loose.

For the contest to be decided before California, Cruz or Trump would have to win states they are projected to win by a heavy amount, and also steal surprising victories in numerous states they were not projected to win. California holds 90% of the sway in the outcome, the remaining 10% is held collectively by New Jersey, Indiana, Washington, Oregon, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

========================================================================

TL;DR = California will decide the GOP nomination unless Trump or Cruz suffers spectacular meltdowns in contests for states they are projected to win.

You aren't accounting for unbound delegates. If he's within that close of a margin he could squeak out a few unbound delegates.
vortex86
Posts: 559
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4/20/2016 3:53:49 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 3:39:33 PM, imabench wrote:
In the GOP race, a candidate needs to clinch 1237 delegates out of 2472 total to clinch the nomination (1237 is 1/2 of 2472 + 1). Trump currently has 845, meaning he only needs 390 or so more to win the primary

There are 15 state contests left that put together have about 675 delegates up for grabs, 9 of the 15 being winner-take all states.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Fresh off an a** kicking in NY, Trump has 20 point leads in polls for Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Connecticut which are the next contests up for grabs for the GOP. Delaware and Rhode Island are also on the same date, but combined only offer 40 delegates that can be won

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

If the polls stay the way they are, Trump will win all delegates in Pennsylvania and Maryland, which are winner take all states. That will add to Trump's delegate count, bringing him up to 954, meaning he needs 280 more to win.

Since Trump is doing very well in the NE, it is likely he will win the remaining NE states of Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Wins here will give him an added total of about 35 delegates in addition to Pennsylvania and Maryland, assuming he doesnt win by such a large margin that he doesnt end up taking ALL the delegates up for grabs, with Cruz and Kasich getting scraps

Once the NE closes, Trump will have approximately 990 delegates in his pocket even if he is unlucky, possibly breaking 1000 if he is lucky.

That leaves 490 remaining delegates up for grabs, with Trump needing around 250 to clinch the nomination. Cruz on the other hand, assuming he gets some delegates for second place finishes in NE states (which is 50-50 at this point) needs over 600 to win.

Cruz needs over 600 to win, but there are only 490 up for grabs

1 week from now on April 27th, assuming Trump dominates the rest of the NE like polls indicate he will, it will become mathematically impossible for Cruz to win the nomination by shutting out Trump. Kasich meanwhile has been mathematically eliminated from winning since mid March.

This leaves two possible outcomes: Trump wins fair and square, or Cruz and Kasich pull off enough surprises to force a contested convention. Lets look at the how California will likely have a massive role in picking the outcome

======================================================================

The next contests after the NE is Indiana, smack in the neighborhood of states Trump has won already

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

If Indiana goes the way of Michigan, Illinois, and Kentucky, than Trump will win. Indiana is winner take all, so Trump would get all delegates up for grabs, which comes out to 57. Trump would now need about 190 of the remaining 430 delegates to win outright.

Nebraska and West Virginia come neck a week after Indiana. While West Virginia is square in trump territory, Nebraska is in the part of the country where Cruz excels. Nebraska is Winner take all, but West Virginia is far more complicated, to the point that even if Trump wins the state in a landslide, he could still lose delegates

http://www.politico.com...

Trump will probably cough up Nebraska and may only get half of the delegates of West Virgina, giving him only 17 delegates from both states. Trump will now only need about 170 delegates to win, but only have 360 remaining delegates to work with.

After those states vote, the contest moves to the west coast where Oregon and Washington are up for grabs, but also award delegates proportionately. Its a complete mystery which candidates will poll well on the West Coast, but the fact that they are proportional system states indicate that Trump will walk away with at least something, since he has finished first or second in almost every state race since it became a 3 horse race.

Trump will likely walk away with 30 to 40 delegates after Oregon and Washington, meaning he still needs about 130 to 140 to win, with only 280 delegates left to win.

After Oregon and Washington, the final 5 states vote. 1 is New Jersey, a NE state where Trump will likely crush the competition, and its also a winner take all state, meaning Trump will likely get all of the state's 51 delegates. That would put him at 70-80 delegates away from winning the contest with 230 delegates still available

The four other states up for grabs are California, New Mexico, Montana, and South Dakota. South Dakota and Montana are square in Cruz territory, and both are winner take all, meaning Trump will probably walk away with nothing from both states. This leaves him still 70-80 delegates short, but now only gives him 185 or so delegates to win

New Mexico could be won by either Trump or Cruz, but because its a proportional system, both Trump and Cruz will likely walk away with something from the state. With 24 delegates up for grabs, Trump could win 10 to 15, meaning he needs 55-70 delegates left to win and 170 delegates available

ALL 170 OF THOSE REMAINING DELEGATES ARE HELD BY CALIFORNIA, WHICH IS A WINNER TAKE ALL STATE.

If Trump wins California, its game over. he could have surprising losses or get completely whipped in proportional state contests, and still clinch the nomination outright thanks to California. Winning all 170 delegates would give Trump 100 delegates worth of wiggle room to still win the nomination, meaning he could lose New Jersey and still win the nomination if he carries California. If he wins Jersey and California, then he can lose Indiana and still be in good shape.

But if he DOESNT win California, he would need surprising wins in states Ted Cruz does very well in to offset the loss. He would need to win Washington and Oregon by landslides, IN ADDITION to stealing Montana and South Dakota from Cruz to negate a loss in California.

Even if Kasich steals some delegates from Cruz in certain states, it wouldnt matter, because Cruz is already mathematically eliminated from winning after the remaining NE states vote, meaning that Kasich would only be keeping delegates from Trump, playing towards a contested convention.

========================================================================

Based on how remaining states will probably play out (based on current polls for NE states, and the voting patterns of neighboring states for state primaries after that), then there is a very probably chance (90%) that California will decide whether Trump wins the GOP primary outright, or triggers a contested convention, where all hell could break loose.

For the contest to be decided before California, Cruz or Trump would have to win states they are projected to win by a heavy amount, and also steal surprising victories in numerous states they were not projected to win. California holds 90% of the sway in the outcome, the remaining 10% is held collectively by New Jersey, Indiana, Washington, Oregon, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

========================================================================

TL;DR = California will decide the GOP nomination unless Trump or Cruz suffers spectacular meltdowns in contests for states they are projected to win.

According to RNC Rules Committee Member, he would most likely win with 1100+ delegates.

http://www.politico.com...
YYW
Posts: 36,250
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4/20/2016 3:54:11 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 3:48:28 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I think New York sealed it.

I agree. What happened last night was simple.

Hillary Clinton got the Democratic nomination. Donald Trump got the Republican nomination. Donald Trump won the general election.

Voter turnout for Hillary will be low, and for Trump will be very high.
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imabench
Posts: 21,206
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4/20/2016 4:29:18 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 3:48:28 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I think New York sealed it.

If you look at the actual facts and data then you will see that it hasnt.... New York helps Trump greatly towards winning the nomination outright, but it doesnt seal the deal
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
imabench
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4/20/2016 4:31:09 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 3:54:11 PM, YYW wrote:

Donald Trump won the general election.

Voter turnout for Hillary will be low, and for Trump will be very high.

lol, thats quite asinine..... Trump wont only drive people who support him to the polls, he will drive a lot of people who dont like him to the polls as well, and there are a lot more people who dont like Trump than people who do like him, as any source could tell you
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
YYW
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4/20/2016 5:16:05 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 4:31:09 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 3:54:11 PM, YYW wrote:

Donald Trump won the general election.

Voter turnout for Hillary will be low, and for Trump will be very high.

lol, thats quite asinine..... Trump wont only drive people who support him to the polls, he will drive a lot of people who dont like him to the polls as well, and there are a lot more people who dont like Trump than people who do like him, as any source could tell you

I've heard you marching to that tune since the beginning of this election. It's the "conventional wisdom," meaning, literally, you're saying what MSNBC is saying, and what FOX has been implying, in some aspects.

The conventional wisdom has been wrong at every stage of this election. It's also wrong now, for reasons that people who abide by conventional wisdom will only understand after it's happened, if ever.

It's not that you're dumb, just that you don't understand what's happening in this country right now. Neither do pundits, who exist only to make witch doctors look like reliable sources of information.
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Greyparrot
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4/20/2016 5:21:45 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 5:16:05 PM, YYW wrote:
At 4/20/2016 4:31:09 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 3:54:11 PM, YYW wrote:

Donald Trump won the general election.

Voter turnout for Hillary will be low, and for Trump will be very high.

lol, thats quite asinine..... Trump wont only drive people who support him to the polls, he will drive a lot of people who dont like him to the polls as well, and there are a lot more people who dont like Trump than people who do like him, as any source could tell you

I've heard you marching to that tune since the beginning of this election. It's the "conventional wisdom," meaning, literally, you're saying what MSNBC is saying, and what FOX has been implying, in some aspects.

The conventional wisdom has been wrong at every stage of this election. It's also wrong now, for reasons that people who abide by conventional wisdom will only understand after it's happened, if ever.

It's not that you're dumb, just that you don't understand what's happening in this country right now. Neither do pundits, who exist only to make witch doctors look like reliable sources of information.

Hillary is afflicted with a bad case of "Carter Malaise"...it's all but over for her. Totally out of touch with the public.
imabench
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4/20/2016 5:25:16 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 5:16:05 PM, YYW wrote:
At 4/20/2016 4:31:09 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 3:54:11 PM, YYW wrote:

Donald Trump won the general election.

Voter turnout for Hillary will be low, and for Trump will be very high.

lol, thats quite asinine..... Trump wont only drive people who support him to the polls, he will drive a lot of people who dont like him to the polls as well, and there are a lot more people who dont like Trump than people who do like him, as any source could tell you

I've heard you marching to that tune since the beginning of this election. It's the "conventional wisdom," meaning, literally, you're saying what MSNBC is saying, and what FOX has been implying, in some aspects.

The conventional wisdom has been wrong at every stage of this election. It's also wrong now, for reasons that people who abide by conventional wisdom will only understand after it's happened, if ever.

If conventional wisdom was wrong at every state of this election than Hillary wouldnt still be beating Bernie by as much as she is. Conventional wisdom also checked out with Superdelegates preferring Hillary over Sanders as well, and conventional wisdom also implies that there would be at least one evangelical candidate who does very well in the primary (Santorum in 2012, Huckabee in 2008, and in 2016 its Ted Cruz)

Conventional wisdom has certainly taken a shellacking, but it isnt completely inapplicable to the primaries....

It's not that you're dumb, just that you don't understand what's happening in this country right now. Neither do pundits, who exist only to make witch doctors look like reliable sources of information.

Their confusions about how bad Trump would do in a general election though is not unfounded, its basic logic.

P1 - A LOT of people really do NOT like Trump
P2 - A lot of people who dont like Trump will vote in the general election
C - If Trump makes it to the general election, a lot of people who dont like him will turn out to vote against him.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
NothingSpecial99
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4/20/2016 5:26:13 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 3:39:33 PM, imabench wrote:
In the GOP race, a candidate needs to clinch 1237 delegates out of 2472 total to clinch the nomination (1237 is 1/2 of 2472 + 1). Trump currently has 845, meaning he only needs 390 or so more to win the primary

There are 15 state contests left that put together have about 675 delegates up for grabs, 9 of the 15 being winner-take all states.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Fresh off an a** kicking in NY, Trump has 20 point leads in polls for Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Connecticut which are the next contests up for grabs for the GOP. Delaware and Rhode Island are also on the same date, but combined only offer 40 delegates that can be won

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

If the polls stay the way they are, Trump will win all delegates in Pennsylvania and Maryland, which are winner take all states. That will add to Trump's delegate count, bringing him up to 954, meaning he needs 280 more to win.

Since Trump is doing very well in the NE, it is likely he will win the remaining NE states of Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Wins here will give him an added total of about 35 delegates in addition to Pennsylvania and Maryland, assuming he doesnt win by such a large margin that he doesnt end up taking ALL the delegates up for grabs, with Cruz and Kasich getting scraps

Once the NE closes, Trump will have approximately 990 delegates in his pocket even if he is unlucky, possibly breaking 1000 if he is lucky.

That leaves 490 remaining delegates up for grabs, with Trump needing around 250 to clinch the nomination. Cruz on the other hand, assuming he gets some delegates for second place finishes in NE states (which is 50-50 at this point) needs over 600 to win.

Cruz needs over 600 to win, but there are only 490 up for grabs

1 week from now on April 27th, assuming Trump dominates the rest of the NE like polls indicate he will, it will become mathematically impossible for Cruz to win the nomination by shutting out Trump. Kasich meanwhile has been mathematically eliminated from winning since mid March.

This leaves two possible outcomes: Trump wins fair and square, or Cruz and Kasich pull off enough surprises to force a contested convention. Lets look at the how California will likely have a massive role in picking the outcome

======================================================================

The next contests after the NE is Indiana, smack in the neighborhood of states Trump has won already

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

If Indiana goes the way of Michigan, Illinois, and Kentucky, than Trump will win. Indiana is winner take all, so Trump would get all delegates up for grabs, which comes out to 57. Trump would now need about 190 of the remaining 430 delegates to win outright.

Nebraska and West Virginia come neck a week after Indiana. While West Virginia is square in trump territory, Nebraska is in the part of the country where Cruz excels. Nebraska is Winner take all, but West Virginia is far more complicated, to the point that even if Trump wins the state in a landslide, he could still lose delegates

http://www.politico.com...

Trump will probably cough up Nebraska and may only get half of the delegates of West Virgina, giving him only 17 delegates from both states. Trump will now only need about 170 delegates to win, but only have 360 remaining delegates to work with.

After those states vote, the contest moves to the west coast where Oregon and Washington are up for grabs, but also award delegates proportionately. Its a complete mystery which candidates will poll well on the West Coast, but the fact that they are proportional system states indicate that Trump will walk away with at least something, since he has finished first or second in almost every state race since it became a 3 horse race.

Trump will likely walk away with 30 to 40 delegates after Oregon and Washington, meaning he still needs about 130 to 140 to win, with only 280 delegates left to win.

After Oregon and Washington, the final 5 states vote. 1 is New Jersey, a NE state where Trump will likely crush the competition, and its also a winner take all state, meaning Trump will likely get all of the state's 51 delegates. That would put him at 70-80 delegates away from winning the contest with 230 delegates still available

The four other states up for grabs are California, New Mexico, Montana, and South Dakota. South Dakota and Montana are square in Cruz territory, and both are winner take all, meaning Trump will probably walk away with nothing from both states. This leaves him still 70-80 delegates short, but now only gives him 185 or so delegates to win

New Mexico could be won by either Trump or Cruz, but because its a proportional system, both Trump and Cruz will likely walk away with something from the state. With 24 delegates up for grabs, Trump could win 10 to 15, meaning he needs 55-70 delegates left to win and 170 delegates available

ALL 170 OF THOSE REMAINING DELEGATES ARE HELD BY CALIFORNIA, WHICH IS A WINNER TAKE ALL STATE.

If Trump wins California, its game over. he could have surprising losses or get completely whipped in proportional state contests, and still clinch the nomination outright thanks to California. Winning all 170 delegates would give Trump 100 delegates worth of wiggle room to still win the nomination, meaning he could lose New Jersey and still win the nomination if he carries California. If he wins Jersey and California, then he can lose Indiana and still be in good shape.

But if he DOESNT win California, he would need surprising wins in states Ted Cruz does very well in to offset the loss. He would need to win Washington and Oregon by landslides, IN ADDITION to stealing Montana and South Dakota from Cruz to negate a loss in California.

Even if Kasich steals some delegates from Cruz in certain states, it wouldnt matter, because Cruz is already mathematically eliminated from winning after the remaining NE states vote, meaning that Kasich would only be keeping delegates from Trump, playing towards a contested convention.

========================================================================

Based on how remaining states will probably play out (based on current polls for NE states, and the voting patterns of neighboring states for state primaries after that), then there is a very probably chance (90%) that California will decide whether Trump wins the GOP primary outright, or triggers a contested convention, where all hell could break loose.

For the contest to be decided before California, Cruz or Trump would have to win states they are projected to win by a heavy amount, and also steal surprising victories in numerous states they were not projected to win. California holds 90% of the sway in the outcome, the remaining 10% is held collectively by New Jersey, Indiana, Washington, Oregon, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

========================================================================

TL;DR = California will decide the GOP nomination unless Trump or Cruz suffers spectacular meltdowns in contests for states they are projected to win.

It's about time my state's primary comes along
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YYW
Posts: 36,250
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4/20/2016 5:33:25 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 5:25:16 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 5:16:05 PM, YYW wrote:
At 4/20/2016 4:31:09 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 3:54:11 PM, YYW wrote:

Donald Trump won the general election.

Voter turnout for Hillary will be low, and for Trump will be very high.

lol, thats quite asinine..... Trump wont only drive people who support him to the polls, he will drive a lot of people who dont like him to the polls as well, and there are a lot more people who dont like Trump than people who do like him, as any source could tell you

I've heard you marching to that tune since the beginning of this election. It's the "conventional wisdom," meaning, literally, you're saying what MSNBC is saying, and what FOX has been implying, in some aspects.

The conventional wisdom has been wrong at every stage of this election. It's also wrong now, for reasons that people who abide by conventional wisdom will only understand after it's happened, if ever.

If conventional wisdom was wrong at every state of this election than Hillary wouldnt still be beating Bernie by as much as she is. Conventional wisdom also checked out with Superdelegates preferring Hillary over Sanders as well, and conventional wisdom also implies that there would be at least one evangelical candidate who does very well in the primary (Santorum in 2012, Huckabee in 2008, and in 2016 its Ted Cruz)

Conventional wisdom has certainly taken a shellacking, but it isnt completely inapplicable to the primaries....

It's not that you're dumb, just that you don't understand what's happening in this country right now. Neither do pundits, who exist only to make witch doctors look like reliable sources of information.

Their confusions about how bad Trump would do in a general election though is not unfounded, its basic logic.

P1 - A LOT of people really do NOT like Trump
P2 - A lot of people who dont like Trump will vote in the general election
C - If Trump makes it to the general election, a lot of people who dont like him will turn out to vote against him.

Do you want me to take the time to explain why you're wrong?
Tsar of DDO
imabench
Posts: 21,206
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4/20/2016 5:35:40 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 5:33:25 PM, YYW wrote:
At 4/20/2016 5:25:16 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 5:16:05 PM, YYW wrote:
At 4/20/2016 4:31:09 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 3:54:11 PM, YYW wrote:

Donald Trump won the general election.

Voter turnout for Hillary will be low, and for Trump will be very high.

lol, thats quite asinine..... Trump wont only drive people who support him to the polls, he will drive a lot of people who dont like him to the polls as well, and there are a lot more people who dont like Trump than people who do like him, as any source could tell you

I've heard you marching to that tune since the beginning of this election. It's the "conventional wisdom," meaning, literally, you're saying what MSNBC is saying, and what FOX has been implying, in some aspects.

The conventional wisdom has been wrong at every stage of this election. It's also wrong now, for reasons that people who abide by conventional wisdom will only understand after it's happened, if ever.

If conventional wisdom was wrong at every state of this election than Hillary wouldnt still be beating Bernie by as much as she is. Conventional wisdom also checked out with Superdelegates preferring Hillary over Sanders as well, and conventional wisdom also implies that there would be at least one evangelical candidate who does very well in the primary (Santorum in 2012, Huckabee in 2008, and in 2016 its Ted Cruz)

Conventional wisdom has certainly taken a shellacking, but it isnt completely inapplicable to the primaries....

It's not that you're dumb, just that you don't understand what's happening in this country right now. Neither do pundits, who exist only to make witch doctors look like reliable sources of information.

Their confusions about how bad Trump would do in a general election though is not unfounded, its basic logic.

P1 - A LOT of people really do NOT like Trump
P2 - A lot of people who dont like Trump will vote in the general election
C - If Trump makes it to the general election, a lot of people who dont like him will turn out to vote against him.

Do you want me to take the time to explain why you're wrong?

I dont exactly expect you to pull a Bsh and say "Agree to disagree" or some sh*t....
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YYW
Posts: 36,250
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4/20/2016 5:40:00 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 5:35:40 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 5:33:25 PM, YYW wrote:
At 4/20/2016 5:25:16 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 5:16:05 PM, YYW wrote:
At 4/20/2016 4:31:09 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 3:54:11 PM, YYW wrote:

Donald Trump won the general election.

Voter turnout for Hillary will be low, and for Trump will be very high.

lol, thats quite asinine..... Trump wont only drive people who support him to the polls, he will drive a lot of people who dont like him to the polls as well, and there are a lot more people who dont like Trump than people who do like him, as any source could tell you

I've heard you marching to that tune since the beginning of this election. It's the "conventional wisdom," meaning, literally, you're saying what MSNBC is saying, and what FOX has been implying, in some aspects.

The conventional wisdom has been wrong at every stage of this election. It's also wrong now, for reasons that people who abide by conventional wisdom will only understand after it's happened, if ever.

If conventional wisdom was wrong at every state of this election than Hillary wouldnt still be beating Bernie by as much as she is. Conventional wisdom also checked out with Superdelegates preferring Hillary over Sanders as well, and conventional wisdom also implies that there would be at least one evangelical candidate who does very well in the primary (Santorum in 2012, Huckabee in 2008, and in 2016 its Ted Cruz)

Conventional wisdom has certainly taken a shellacking, but it isnt completely inapplicable to the primaries....

It's not that you're dumb, just that you don't understand what's happening in this country right now. Neither do pundits, who exist only to make witch doctors look like reliable sources of information.

Their confusions about how bad Trump would do in a general election though is not unfounded, its basic logic.

P1 - A LOT of people really do NOT like Trump
P2 - A lot of people who dont like Trump will vote in the general election
C - If Trump makes it to the general election, a lot of people who dont like him will turn out to vote against him.

Do you want me to take the time to explain why you're wrong?

I dont exactly expect you to pull a Bsh and say "Agree to disagree" or some sh*t....

haha I do not "agree to disagree."

That's a cheap cop-out that people use when they've been proven to be wrong and are out of cards to lay down.

I never run out of cards, but then again, unlike others, I am playing with a full deck.
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1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,100
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4/20/2016 6:07:24 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
@YYW I agree that the general is oversimplified to "nobody likes Trump", but there are other factors that won't be accounted for until after he is the definitive nominee that you don't consider.
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Greyparrot
Posts: 14,239
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4/20/2016 6:12:59 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 6:07:24 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
@YYW I agree that the general is oversimplified to "nobody likes Trump", but there are other factors that won't be accounted for until after he is the definitive nominee that you don't consider.

The same holds true for when Hillary is the definitive winner.
ColeTrain
Posts: 4,291
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4/20/2016 6:13:32 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 3:54:11 PM, YYW wrote:
At 4/20/2016 3:48:28 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I think New York sealed it.

I agree. What happened last night was simple.

Hillary Clinton got the Democratic nomination. Donald Trump got the Republican nomination. Donald Trump won the general election.

Voter turnout for Hillary will be low, and for Trump will be very high.

That's what I see, too.
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TrumpTriumph
Posts: 165
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4/20/2016 7:03:02 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 5:33:25 PM, YYW wrote:
At 4/20/2016 5:25:16 PM, imabench wrote:

Their confusions about how bad Trump would do in a general election though is not unfounded, its basic logic.

P1 - A LOT of people really do NOT like Trump
P2 - A lot of people who dont like Trump will vote in the general election
C - If Trump makes it to the general election, a lot of people who dont like him will turn out to vote against him.

Do you want me to take the time to explain why you're wrong?

Ya
#TrumpTriumph2016