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Super Delegates will decide DEM nomination

imabench
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4/20/2016 4:27:05 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
In the Dem contest, there are 2,382 delegates + Super delegates total needed to win the nomination. Focusing only on delegates and not super delegates, then the number needed to win are 2026.

Counting only delegates, Hillary has 1428, and Bernie has 1151. With 1400 delegates still up for grabs, Hillary only needs 600 of the 1400 to win a majority of the remaining non-super delegates.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

The next 5 contests in the Dem race following NY are all states in the NE: Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut, Maryland, and Rhode Island. Hillary does not do as well in the NE as Trump does on the GOP side, she won by <60% in her 'home' state of NY and the only other NE state she has won, Massachusetts, she won by 2%

Assuming that Hillary eeks out small wins in the remaining NE states, the way the DEM primary is set up ensures that Bernie will still get a load of delegates from the NE states, since no DEM contest is winner-take-all..... NE states add up to about 380 delegates. If Hillary wins by 55-45 margins like she probably would, She would get 210 delegates or so, with Bernie still getting 170. If she wins by a smaller margin like 52-48, then she would only get 200 or so, with Bernie getting 180.

Those 200 though will add to her total to bring her up to 1628, with Bernie at about 1300.

In Indiana, the next contest after the NE votes, Hillary will likely win but not by a large margin

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Hillary won Ohio and Illinois, but only did so by minuscule margins, and Michigan she ended up losing despite being projected to win just days before. If Hillary wins Indiana, theres no way in hell it would be by more than 60%, meaning of the 83 delegates up for grabs in the state, Hillary will probably get 45-50 of them, with Bernie getting the remaining 33-38 delegates. Hillary is now up to 1675, Bernie at 1335...... 2026 are needed to win

After Indiana is Kentucky, West Virginia, and Oregon. (Also Guam, but its so small its virtually irrelevant). Hillary will win Kentucky and WV by a healthy margin like she has with other states in the region similar to those to (giving her 50 more delegates from the 80ish up for grabs) pushing her up to 1755 with Bernie at 1365....

Oregon though is NOT friendly territory for Hillary, as its a mega liberal state even further left then Washington, where Bernie won 70% to 20%. If Oregon goes the same way as Washington, Hillary will get 15 delegates of the 60 up for grabs if she's lucky (25%), pushing her up to about 1770 with Bernie now at 1410.

After another irrelevant contest in the Virgin Islands, the number of delegates up for grabs at this point is 774. Hillary at about 1770 delegates would need < 300 to win a majority of delegates over Bernie. 300/774 is 39% of remaining contests, so Hillary would only need to win 39% of the vote in states that vote in June to win the nomination.

The states up for grabs in June are Puerto Rico, South Dakota, New Mexico, North Dakota, New Jersey, Montana, California, and D.C., none of which are states Clinton could win by >60%, but Bernie could probably win Montana and both Dakotas by such margins, meaning Hillary would have to do greater than 40% to still win a majority of regular delegates.

California, critical in the GOP race (see other thread) is not as critical in the Dem race since California in the Dem race is a proportional state, not winner take all. Although it is a huge state with a ton of delegates to award to both candidates, even a 65-35% win in the state would only give the winner of the state +300 delegates.

The number of Superdelegates in the race though is 712, well over twice the margin of delegates any candidate could gain by winning California.

its possible for a DEM candidate to hit the 2382 delegates needed to be nominated purely by winning state contests, but Hillary probably wont be able to pull that off since the remaining states up for grabs are more beneficial to Bernie than to Hillary, and all are proportional states rather than winner take all. Hillary if she is lucky will only barely be able to win the nomination without the need for superdelegates to help her, but because that is unlikely to happen, it is these superdelegates that will likely give her the nomination. Of the 712 superdelegates that are available to vote, over 500 have already pledged support to Hillary, with Bernie only getting a mere 40, and the remaining 170 still to be decided. These remaining superdelegates will likely overwhelmingly side with Hillary (since they already do so at a 12:1 margin against Bernie).

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Not factoring in Superdelegates, Hillary needs 2027 delegates to win the nomination, and while it seems like she could easily hit this goal since she only needs to win 40% of the vote in states after May 17 if state contests prior to that point out play out as expected, 40% of the vote would still be hard to hit for her since the remaining states after May 17 are very friendly to Bernie.

So in a scenario where superdelegates do not exist, Hillary could still pull off a win by just staying competitive in state contests after May 17. If she chokes in some states though, like she has done before and probably will do again in a state or two, then Superdelegates will likely be the ones who will determine the outcome of the nomination, and since they overwhelmingly favor Hillary over Bernie, they will probably hand Hillary the nomination before Sanders even has a chance to win remaining state contests and almost match her regular delegate count
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

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imabench
Posts: 21,204
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4/20/2016 4:55:49 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 4:34:10 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
If Hillary loses, would the DEMS reconsider the whole Super-delegate thing as anti-productive?

It would probably be discussed, though a loss in the general election could equally be chalked up to a lack of good candidates running in the first place than superdelegates picking the wrong person..... I bet if Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren were in the race right now, they both easily could have given Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders a run for their money.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,211
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4/20/2016 5:02:16 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 4:55:49 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 4:34:10 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
If Hillary loses, would the DEMS reconsider the whole Super-delegate thing as anti-productive?

It would probably be discussed, though a loss in the general election could equally be chalked up to a lack of good candidates running in the first place than superdelegates picking the wrong person..... I bet if Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren were in the race right now, they both easily could have given Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders a run for their money.

Yah, at the very least, Biden would have had far more Super Delgs than Sanders.
imabench
Posts: 21,204
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4/20/2016 5:11:21 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/20/2016 5:02:16 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 4/20/2016 4:55:49 PM, imabench wrote:
At 4/20/2016 4:34:10 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
If Hillary loses, would the DEMS reconsider the whole Super-delegate thing as anti-productive?

It would probably be discussed, though a loss in the general election could equally be chalked up to a lack of good candidates running in the first place than superdelegates picking the wrong person..... I bet if Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren were in the race right now, they both easily could have given Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders a run for their money.

Yah, at the very least, Biden would have had far more Super Delgs than Sanders.

A ham sandwich could probably get more Super Delgs than Sanders at this point XD
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015