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Scenario: No 2003 Invasion of Iraq

Vox_Veritas
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4/29/2016 12:23:59 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
March 19, 2003:
On the eve of a U.S. invasion, Saddam Hussein announces that Iraq will submit to a full UN inspection. In light of this development the UN hurriedly passes a resolution forbidding the U.S. and its "coalition of the willing" from invading Iraq. The U.S. repentance and leaves Iraq alone. It is confirmed that Iraq no longer has WMD stockpiles or programmes.
2004: Sanctions against Iraq are dropped. However, Iraq "had worked covertly to maintain the intellectual and physical capacity to produce WMDs and restart production once sanctions were lifted" (which was actually reported by the Iraq Survey Group in its final report).
2005: It is reported that Iraq has restarted its WMD program. Russia and Iraq announce a nuclear cooperation agreement.
2008: Iraq carries out its first nuclear weapons test. Despite their former rivalry Iraq and Iran announce a new "partnership".
2010: Mossad reports that Iraq may be providing Hamas with chemical weapons.
2011: An attempted chemical weapons attack is thwarted in Israel, one which would have killed hundreds of people. The Arab Spring in Iraq begins and it is suppressed within a year; 100,000 people die. To prevent the spread of the Arab Spring, Iraq intervenes militarily in Syria and Libya.
2013: The Syrian and Libyan rebels are defeated. Iraqi bases are built in Syria, which could potentially be used as a launch pad for a strike on Israel.
2014: Iraq now has a sizable functioning arsenal of nuclear and chemical WMDs, deterring any possible invasion of the country. Saddam Hussein authorises the Kurdish Genocide. From 2014 until 2018 3 million Kurds are killed in Ba'athist concentration camps. An additional 3 million or so flee Iraq and become international refugees. Also, 200,000 Assyrian Christians and an unknown number of Iraqi dissidents are exterminated in this time period.
2015: Hamas is now firing rockets at Israel which are filled with Sarin gas, courtesy of Saddam Hussein.
2016: Iraq is still under a dictatorship, has a strong military, and is part of the "Death to America!" club, along with Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the likes.
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4/29/2016 4:59:58 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/29/2016 12:23:59 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
March 19, 2003:
On the eve of a U.S. invasion, Saddam Hussein announces that Iraq will submit to a full UN inspection. In light of this development the UN hurriedly passes a resolution forbidding the U.S. and its "coalition of the willing" from invading Iraq. The U.S. repentance and leaves Iraq alone. It is confirmed that Iraq no longer has WMD stockpiles or programmes.

The US would veto any such resolution if it came before the Security Council, so anything of the like would have to be made in the General Assembly, which frankly doesn't carry any weight. Several nations considered our invasion to be illegal in our timeline and we still went through with it. The US has been wanting to deal with Iraq long before 2003 and that whole WMD thing, so I see little that would stop us from using another excuse to invade.

2004: Sanctions against Iraq are dropped. However, Iraq "had worked covertly to maintain the intellectual and physical capacity to produce WMDs and restart production once sanctions were lifted" (which was actually reported by the Iraq Survey Group in its final report).

Sanctions would never be dropped by the US (at least not all the sanctions). Even Iran still has sanctions placed against them for Human rights violations and missile tests, despite the nuclear deal.

2005: It is reported that Iraq has restarted its WMD program. Russia and Iraq announce a nuclear cooperation agreement.
2008: Iraq carries out its first nuclear weapons test. Despite their former rivalry Iraq and Iran announce a new "partnership".

Considering that Saddam believed that Iran held land that rightfully belonged to the Arabs, as well as his almost Nazi like hatred for Kurds, Persians, and any other non Arab group, it seems unlikely (though admittedly not impossible) that Iraq and Iran work together.

2010: Mossad reports that Iraq may be providing Hamas with chemical weapons.
2011: An attempted chemical weapons attack is thwarted in Israel, one which would have killed hundreds of people. The Arab Spring in Iraq begins and it is suppressed within a year; 100,000 people die. To prevent the spread of the Arab Spring, Iraq intervenes militarily in Syria and Libya.

Saddams Iraq was of the same make and of similar strength as Assad's Syria. If Assad couldn't suppress the Arab Spring movement that quickly with that little casualties, it is unlikely that Saddam could. Though the power vacuum that resulted from the Arab Spring would not have resulted in ISIS, rebels would still be a problem.

2013: The Syrian and Libyan rebels are defeated. Iraqi bases are built in Syria, which could potentially be used as a launch pad for a strike on Israel.
2014: Iraq now has a sizable functioning arsenal of nuclear and chemical WMDs, deterring any possible invasion of the country. Saddam Hussein authorises the Kurdish Genocide. From 2014 until 2018 3 million Kurds are killed in Ba'athist concentration camps. An additional 3 million or so flee Iraq and become international refugees. Also, 200,000 Assyrian Christians and an unknown number of Iraqi dissidents are exterminated in this time period.
2015: Hamas is now firing rockets at Israel which are filled with Sarin gas, courtesy of Saddam Hussein.
2016: Iraq is still under a dictatorship, has a strong military, and is part of the "Death to America!" club, along with Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the likes.

All in all, I think if the 2003 invasion didn't occur then we would have had the 2004 invasion.