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Trump already ahead of Clinton in a poll

16kadams
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5/4/2016 8:36:43 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2016 8:32:17 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
http://m.rasmussenreports.com...

It's just one, but isn't this how it starts?

The poll is wrong.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,745
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5/4/2016 8:37:40 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2016 8:36:43 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:32:17 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
http://m.rasmussenreports.com...

It's just one, but isn't this how it starts?

The poll is wrong.

Deja vu.
I'll see you on the Dark Side of the Moon.

So much has gone, and little is new.

DDO Risk King
16kadams
Posts: 10,539
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5/4/2016 8:38:45 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2016 8:37:40 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:36:43 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:32:17 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
http://m.rasmussenreports.com...

It's just one, but isn't this how it starts?

The poll is wrong.

Deja vu.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

It's wrong. It doesn't mean Trump could win as time goes by, but he sure as hell isn't ahead right now.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,745
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5/4/2016 8:40:36 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2016 8:38:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:37:40 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:36:43 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:32:17 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
http://m.rasmussenreports.com...

It's just one, but isn't this how it starts?

The poll is wrong.

Deja vu.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

It's wrong. It doesn't mean Trump could win as time goes by, but he sure as hell isn't ahead right now.

I hope you realize the danger in that dismissal.
I'll see you on the Dark Side of the Moon.

So much has gone, and little is new.

DDO Risk King
16kadams
Posts: 10,539
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5/4/2016 8:52:37 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2016 8:40:36 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:38:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:37:40 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:36:43 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:32:17 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
http://m.rasmussenreports.com...

It's just one, but isn't this how it starts?

The poll is wrong.

Deja vu.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

It's wrong. It doesn't mean Trump could win as time goes by, but he sure as hell isn't ahead right now.

I hope you realize the danger in that dismissal.

"It doesn't mean Trump could win as time goes by"

In other words, I didn't dismiss anything. I understand the threat he poses. But the claim that one outlier poll, when literally every other poll within the last few weeks says something different, is correct is really silly.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,745
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5/4/2016 9:00:39 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2016 8:52:37 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:40:36 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:38:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:37:40 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:36:43 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:32:17 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
http://m.rasmussenreports.com...

It's just one, but isn't this how it starts?

The poll is wrong.

Deja vu.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

It's wrong. It doesn't mean Trump could win as time goes by, but he sure as hell isn't ahead right now.

I hope you realize the danger in that dismissal.

"It doesn't mean Trump could win as time goes by"

In other words, I didn't dismiss anything. I understand the threat he poses. But the claim that one outlier poll, when literally every other poll within the last few weeks says something different, is correct is really silly.

Polls can't really be correct at this point as much as they can establish a trend. Three polls with a margin of 7 or less in favor of Clinton, one with Trump leading, and just two with Clinton winning by 10 or more. Now, Trump has two months where he has the advantage of being able to focus just on her while she still has to deal with investigations, and just getting the Democratic nomination with enough faith to begin with from Democrats that the lead won't be cut down too quickly before the election.
I'll see you on the Dark Side of the Moon.

So much has gone, and little is new.

DDO Risk King
16kadams
Posts: 10,539
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5/4/2016 9:02:36 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2016 9:00:39 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:52:37 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:40:36 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:38:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:37:40 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:36:43 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:32:17 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
http://m.rasmussenreports.com...

It's just one, but isn't this how it starts?

The poll is wrong.

Deja vu.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

It's wrong. It doesn't mean Trump could win as time goes by, but he sure as hell isn't ahead right now.

I hope you realize the danger in that dismissal.

"It doesn't mean Trump could win as time goes by"

In other words, I didn't dismiss anything. I understand the threat he poses. But the claim that one outlier poll, when literally every other poll within the last few weeks says something different, is correct is really silly.

Polls can't really be correct at this point as much as they can establish a trend. Three polls with a margin of 7 or less in favor of Clinton, one with Trump leading, and just two with Clinton winning by 10 or more. Now, Trump has two months where he has the advantage of being able to focus just on her while she still has to deal with investigations, and just getting the Democratic nomination with enough faith to begin with from Democrats that the lead won't be cut down too quickly before the election.

Meh, we'll see. She'll throw a billion in attack ads on his lap replaying the "Mexicans are rapists" and other sexist/racist/idiotic quotes.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,745
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5/4/2016 9:05:22 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2016 9:02:36 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 9:00:39 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:52:37 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:40:36 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:38:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:37:40 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:36:43 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/4/2016 8:32:17 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
http://m.rasmussenreports.com...

It's just one, but isn't this how it starts?

The poll is wrong.

Deja vu.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

It's wrong. It doesn't mean Trump could win as time goes by, but he sure as hell isn't ahead right now.

I hope you realize the danger in that dismissal.

"It doesn't mean Trump could win as time goes by"

In other words, I didn't dismiss anything. I understand the threat he poses. But the claim that one outlier poll, when literally every other poll within the last few weeks says something different, is correct is really silly.

Polls can't really be correct at this point as much as they can establish a trend. Three polls with a margin of 7 or less in favor of Clinton, one with Trump leading, and just two with Clinton winning by 10 or more. Now, Trump has two months where he has the advantage of being able to focus just on her while she still has to deal with investigations, and just getting the Democratic nomination with enough faith to begin with from Democrats that the lead won't be cut down too quickly before the election.

Meh, we'll see. She'll throw a billion in attack ads on his lap replaying the "Mexicans are rapists" and other sexist/racist/idiotic quotes.

"Mexicans are rapists" won't mean sh!t in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. He might solidify votes already against Republicans in states like Florida and Nevada, but again - they were already against him.

A bigger loss in California won't hurt him if he wins swing states.
I'll see you on the Dark Side of the Moon.

So much has gone, and little is new.

DDO Risk King
Fly
Posts: 3,221
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5/5/2016 3:18:48 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2016 8:32:17 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
http://m.rasmussenreports.com...

It's just one, but isn't this how it starts?

Not much starts solely with Rasmussen...
"I don"t have faith in faith
I don"t believe in belief
You can call me faithless
But I still cling to hope
And I believe in love
And that"s faith enough for me"
-Rush
TN05
Posts: 4,796
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5/5/2016 3:30:00 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2016 8:32:17 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
http://m.rasmussenreports.com...

It's just one, but isn't this how it starts?

Deceptive headline. He's only ahead when they remove the option to stay home. Additionally this is literally the only pollster (a Republican one, BTW) in the last two months to have him tied or ahead in any way. This poll is sandwiched between polls having Clinton up +13, +7, and +13. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com...)
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bsh1
Posts: 29,018
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5/5/2016 4:33:49 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2016 9:05:22 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 9:02:36 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Meh, we'll see. She'll throw a billion in attack ads on his lap replaying the "Mexicans are rapists" and other sexist/racist/idiotic quotes.

"Mexicans are rapists" won't mean sh!t in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. He might solidify votes already against Republicans in states like Florida and Nevada, but again - they were already against him.

The anti-hispanic comments will cost him majorly in Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada--which are usually potential flip states. It could also put states like Arizona into play if larger numbers of hispanics and women turn out to vote. I read an article recently that said that citizenship applications among hispanics were up 14% from this time last year, much of that being attributed to a desire to get involved in the politic process to stop Trump.

And, his comments about women will certainly hurt him in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Black voters may also, fearing a new racist America, turn out to vote in massive numbers in states like Virginia.
I'm a Bish.
bsh1
Posts: 29,018
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5/5/2016 4:36:32 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Also, other wierd things to consider:

http://www.politicususa.com...
https://www.quora.com...

That is very unlikely to be sure, but even the fact that people are talking about it shows Trump's weakness on the map.
I'm a Bish.
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,745
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5/5/2016 4:36:52 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/5/2016 4:33:49 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 5/4/2016 9:05:22 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 9:02:36 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Meh, we'll see. She'll throw a billion in attack ads on his lap replaying the "Mexicans are rapists" and other sexist/racist/idiotic quotes.

"Mexicans are rapists" won't mean sh!t in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. He might solidify votes already against Republicans in states like Florida and Nevada, but again - they were already against him.

The anti-hispanic comments will cost him majorly in Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada--which are usually potential flip states. It could also put states like Arizona into play if larger numbers of hispanics and women turn out to vote.

You mean Democratic Hispanics will vote Democrat? Shock.

I read an article recently that said that citizenship applications among hispanics were up 14% from this time last year, much of that being attributed to a desire to get involved in the politic process to stop Trump.

And, his comments about women will certainly hurt him in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Black voters may also, fearing a new racist America, turn out to vote in massive numbers in states like Virginia.

Doubtful. I think he can win all three, feasibly.
I'll see you on the Dark Side of the Moon.

So much has gone, and little is new.

DDO Risk King
bsh1
Posts: 29,018
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5/5/2016 4:42:08 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/5/2016 4:36:52 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/5/2016 4:33:49 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 5/4/2016 9:05:22 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 5/4/2016 9:02:36 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Meh, we'll see. She'll throw a billion in attack ads on his lap replaying the "Mexicans are rapists" and other sexist/racist/idiotic quotes.

"Mexicans are rapists" won't mean sh!t in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. He might solidify votes already against Republicans in states like Florida and Nevada, but again - they were already against him.

The anti-hispanic comments will cost him majorly in Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada--which are usually potential flip states. It could also put states like Arizona into play if larger numbers of hispanics and women turn out to vote.

You mean Democratic Hispanics will vote Democrat? Shock.

Your sarcasm aside, many hispanics simply don't turn out to vote. Sure, they may be registered democrats, but if they stay home and don't vote, their party label hardly matters.

In Arizona, more specifically, fewer eligible hispanic voters are registered to vote than white eligible voters. If Trump can mobilize these hispanic voters to become registered, they could swing the election there.
[http://www.pewhispanic.org...]

Basically, if Trump can terrify certain demographics into voting en masse, he will lose all of those states, maybe also Arizona.
I'm a Bish.