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Trump's Demographic Problem with Hispanics

bsh1
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5/5/2016 5:32:58 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
Trump, as most are aware, has a massive popularity gap with Hispanics. 12% have a favorable view of his, whereas a whopping 77% have a negative view of him. [1] About 28% viewed Romney favorably around this time 4 years ago (that's more than double Trump's number). [2] By way of comparison, Hillary has an approval rating of 67% among Hispanics. [3]

This all boils down to one simple fact: the hispanic community pretty much hates Trump. This should surprise no one, and it has been an ongoing problem for Trump with his "their rapists" comment and with the kind of intensely negative and critical coverage he gets on networks like Univision and Telemundo.

So, how might this impact him at the polls? In the poll I cited regarding Romney, while 28% approved of him, only 14% of hispanic voters planned to vote for him--a 50% drop in support. What if Trump faced a similar gap, going from 12% to 6%? This wouldn't surprise me, given all the data I noted, and it could spell electoral disaster for Trump in several key states if it holds true. Even if Trump didn't have that 50% gulf between approval ratings and actual votes, 12% may not be enough to secure him the win come November.

Consider that Trump's rhetoric in the race has been linked to a rise in citizenship applications among hispanics eligible to apply. [4] Applications were up 14% from January, and "[t]he pace is picking up by the week, advocates say, and they estimate applications could approach one million in 2016, about 200,000 more than the average in recent years." [4] Several of the applicants interviewed noted that they were seeking citizenship so that they could be able to vote against Trump in the fall, and to have their voices matter in our political process. [4]

But, it is not just citizenship applications which are up. Hispanic citizens who are eligible (but not registered) voters are registering at greater numbers than in years past in order to stop Trump. [5, 6] And, in states like Florida, the gulf between hispanics registering as republican and those registering as democrat is growing more and more, favoring, of course, the democrats. [7] Other polls report that voter enthusiasm is up since 2012 among hispanics.

So, how might all this impact the general election? Here are the 12 states with the highest percentage of hispanics as part of their total population [8]:

New Mexico
California
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
New Jersey
New York
Illinois
Connecticut
Utah

Of these, several are safe democratic states (Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California). I'll define "safe" as having voted blue in 6 of the last 6 elections. Let's discount those states for a moment, and instead look at the remainder:

New Mexico
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
Utah

Of this smaller group of 7, New Mexico and Nevada lean democratic, having voted blue in 5 and 4 of the last 6 elections, respectively. [8] These states are likely to continue to vote blue, particularly aided by anti-Trump hispanic voters. So, let's make one more cut to the list, to produce the following pool of states:

Texas
Arizona
Florida
Colorado
Utah

These 5 could post a problem for Trump. Florida and Colorado have split evenly over the last 6 election cycles (3 times red, 3 times blue). A large scale, anti-Trump mobilization of hispanic voters in those states could tip once again into the Democrat's column given the general closeness of their elections. To win in such heavily divided states, you cannot afford to alienate any bloc of voters capable of tipping the scales.

I don't honestly think that Texas will vote blue, but I think Texas will, in a few cycles, become a swing state. That could be the death knell of the GOP's electoral viability. However, that is projecting farther into the future than I really want to do for the sake of this post, so let's just ignore Texas as a rather interesting sidebar.

That, of course, leaves Arizona and Utah. According to Pew Research, "Some 46% of Hispanics in Arizona are eligible to vote, ranking Arizona 20th nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. By contrast, 80% of the state"s white population is eligible to vote." [9] If a significant portion of the 54% who are not registered to vote do register in time for the November elections, Arizona could become a swing state. Obama only lost Arizona by about 200,000 votes in 2012 (out of about 2.3 million cast). [10] This gap could be overcome by a mixture of increase hispanic turnout and registration, along with women voters more decisively rejecting Trump. Moreover, if enough republicans unenthused about Trump don't head out to the polls in November, Arizona could conceivably flip blue.

Utah is interesting as well, because polls there have found that Trump could lose a general election fight in that state. [11] He is unpopular within the Mormon community, who object strongly to his incendiary rhetoric and bullying style. [12] These disgruntled Mormon voters and energized Latinos could make odd bedfellows in a race against Trump. If the former either stay home or are more closely divided between Hillary and Trump than they were in 2012, and if Latinos show up to the polls in big enough numbers, Utah could also flip blue.

While I don't think it is likely that Utah (as safe GOP state by my own definition) would flip, Arizona, which voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, [8] could definitely be put into play. If Trump loses Arizona's 11 electoral delegates, the math becomes harder for him to reach the 270 needed to win.

So, what do you think about how the hispanic vote will factor into the 2016 race? How might it impact the down-ballot, and can Trump recover support within the hispanic community?

Sources

1 - http://www.gallup.com...
2 - http://bangordailynews.com...
3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com...
4 - http://www.nytimes.com...
5 - http://www.houstonchronicle.com...
6 - http://www.usnews.com...
7 - http://www.pewresearch.org...
8 - http://www.270towin.com...
9 - http://www.pewhispanic.org...
10 - https://en.wikipedia.org...
11 - http://www.politicususa.com...
12 - https://www.quora.com...
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bsh1
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5/5/2016 5:36:47 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
Messed up the sources.

The first time I cite source No. 8, this is the correct link: https://en.wikipedia.org...

The other times I cite source No. 8, the link given in the OP is correct.

Sorry for the mix up.
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Vox_Veritas
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5/5/2016 5:48:17 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
I think that the Hispanic community is actually at fault here. American citizens who are ethnically Hispanic are basically "siding with their illegal immigrant Hispanic brethren" instead of respecting the laws of their own country.
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TBR
Posts: 9,991
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5/5/2016 5:50:49 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 5:32:58 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Trump, as most are aware, has a massive popularity gap with Hispanics. 12% have a favorable view of his, whereas a whopping 77% have a negative view of him. [1] About 28% viewed Romney favorably around this time 4 years ago (that's more than double Trump's number). [2] By way of comparison, Hillary has an approval rating of 67% among Hispanics. [3]

This all boils down to one simple fact: the hispanic community pretty much hates Trump. This should surprise no one, and it has been an ongoing problem for Trump with his "their rapists" comment and with the kind of intensely negative and critical coverage he gets on networks like Univision and Telemundo.

So, how might this impact him at the polls? In the poll I cited regarding Romney, while 28% approved of him, only 14% of hispanic voters planned to vote for him--a 50% drop in support. What if Trump faced a similar gap, going from 12% to 6%? This wouldn't surprise me, given all the data I noted, and it could spell electoral disaster for Trump in several key states if it holds true. Even if Trump didn't have that 50% gulf between approval ratings and actual votes, 12% may not be enough to secure him the win come November.

Consider that Trump's rhetoric in the race has been linked to a rise in citizenship applications among hispanics eligible to apply. [4] Applications were up 14% from January, and "[t]he pace is picking up by the week, advocates say, and they estimate applications could approach one million in 2016, about 200,000 more than the average in recent years." [4] Several of the applicants interviewed noted that they were seeking citizenship so that they could be able to vote against Trump in the fall, and to have their voices matter in our political process. [4]

But, it is not just citizenship applications which are up. Hispanic citizens who are eligible (but not registered) voters are registering at greater numbers than in years past in order to stop Trump. [5, 6] And, in states like Florida, the gulf between hispanics registering as republican and those registering as democrat is growing more and more, favoring, of course, the democrats. [7] Other polls report that voter enthusiasm is up since 2012 among hispanics.

So, how might all this impact the general election? Here are the 12 states with the highest percentage of hispanics as part of their total population [8]:

New Mexico
California
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
New Jersey
New York
Illinois
Connecticut
Utah

Of these, several are safe democratic states (Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California). I'll define "safe" as having voted blue in 6 of the last 6 elections. Let's discount those states for a moment, and instead look at the remainder:

New Mexico
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
Utah

Of this smaller group of 7, New Mexico and Nevada lean democratic, having voted blue in 5 and 4 of the last 6 elections, respectively. [8] These states are likely to continue to vote blue, particularly aided by anti-Trump hispanic voters. So, let's make one more cut to the list, to produce the following pool of states:

Texas
Arizona
Florida
Colorado
Utah

These 5 could post a problem for Trump. Florida and Colorado have split evenly over the last 6 election cycles (3 times red, 3 times blue). A large scale, anti-Trump mobilization of hispanic voters in those states could tip once again into the Democrat's column given the general closeness of their elections. To win in such heavily divided states, you cannot afford to alienate any bloc of voters capable of tipping the scales.

I don't honestly think that Texas will vote blue, but I think Texas will, in a few cycles, become a swing state. That could be the death knell of the GOP's electoral viability. However, that is projecting farther into the future than I really want to do for the sake of this post, so let's just ignore Texas as a rather interesting sidebar.

That, of course, leaves Arizona and Utah. According to Pew Research, "Some 46% of Hispanics in Arizona are eligible to vote, ranking Arizona 20th nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. By contrast, 80% of the state"s white population is eligible to vote." [9] If a significant portion of the 54% who are not registered to vote do register in time for the November elections, Arizona could become a swing state. Obama only lost Arizona by about 200,000 votes in 2012 (out of about 2.3 million cast). [10] This gap could be overcome by a mixture of increase hispanic turnout and registration, along with women voters more decisively rejecting Trump. Moreover, if enough republicans unenthused about Trump don't head out to the polls in November, Arizona could conceivably flip blue.

Utah is interesting as well, because polls there have found that Trump could lose a general election fight in that state. [11] He is unpopular within the Mormon community, who object strongly to his incendiary rhetoric and bullying style. [12] These disgruntled Mormon voters and energized Latinos could make odd bedfellows in a race against Trump. If the former either stay home or are more closely divided between Hillary and Trump than they were in 2012, and if Latinos show up to the polls in big enough numbers, Utah could also flip blue.

While I don't think it is likely that Utah (as safe GOP state by my own definition) would flip, Arizona, which voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, [8] could definitely be put into play. If Trump loses Arizona's 11 electoral delegates, the math becomes harder for him to reach the 270 needed to win.

So, what do you think about how the hispanic vote will factor into the 2016 race? How might it impact the down-ballot, and can Trump recover support within the hispanic community?

Sources

1 - http://www.gallup.com...
2 - http://bangordailynews.com...
3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com...
4 - http://www.nytimes.com...
5 - http://www.houstonchronicle.com...
6 - http://www.usnews.com...
7 - http://www.pewresearch.org...
8 - http://www.270towin.com...
9 - http://www.pewhispanic.org...
10 - https://en.wikipedia.org...
11 - http://www.politicususa.com...
12 - https://www.quora.com...

He is toast with Hispanic, blacks and women.
imabench
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5/5/2016 6:08:39 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 5:32:58 AM, bsh1 wrote:

So, what do you think about how the hispanic vote will factor into the 2016 race?

If Hillary ends up picking Julian Castro as her VP like some people think she will, hispanics will vote for her the way black people did for Obama. She'll certainly win the hispanic vote, its only a question of by how much
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bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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5/5/2016 8:00:47 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 6:08:39 PM, imabench wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:32:58 AM, bsh1 wrote:

So, what do you think about how the hispanic vote will factor into the 2016 race?

If Hillary ends up picking Julian Castro as her VP like some people think she will, hispanics will vote for her the way black people did for Obama. She'll certainly win the hispanic vote, its only a question of by how much

I really hope he is not her VP.
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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

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walker_harris3
Posts: 273
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5/5/2016 8:57:25 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 5:32:58 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Trump, as most are aware, has a massive popularity gap with Hispanics. 12% have a favorable view of his, whereas a whopping 77% have a negative view of him. [1] About 28% viewed Romney favorably around this time 4 years ago (that's more than double Trump's number). [2] By way of comparison, Hillary has an approval rating of 67% among Hispanics. [3]

This all boils down to one simple fact: the hispanic community pretty much hates Trump. This should surprise no one, and it has been an ongoing problem for Trump with his "their rapists" comment and with the kind of intensely negative and critical coverage he gets on networks like Univision and Telemundo.

So, how might this impact him at the polls? In the poll I cited regarding Romney, while 28% approved of him, only 14% of hispanic voters planned to vote for him--a 50% drop in support. What if Trump faced a similar gap, going from 12% to 6%? This wouldn't surprise me, given all the data I noted, and it could spell electoral disaster for Trump in several key states if it holds true. Even if Trump didn't have that 50% gulf between approval ratings and actual votes, 12% may not be enough to secure him the win come November.

Consider that Trump's rhetoric in the race has been linked to a rise in citizenship applications among hispanics eligible to apply. [4] Applications were up 14% from January, and "[t]he pace is picking up by the week, advocates say, and they estimate applications could approach one million in 2016, about 200,000 more than the average in recent years." [4] Several of the applicants interviewed noted that they were seeking citizenship so that they could be able to vote against Trump in the fall, and to have their voices matter in our political process. [4]

But, it is not just citizenship applications which are up. Hispanic citizens who are eligible (but not registered) voters are registering at greater numbers than in years past in order to stop Trump. [5, 6] And, in states like Florida, the gulf between hispanics registering as republican and those registering as democrat is growing more and more, favoring, of course, the democrats. [7] Other polls report that voter enthusiasm is up since 2012 among hispanics.

So, how might all this impact the general election? Here are the 12 states with the highest percentage of hispanics as part of their total population [8]:

New Mexico
California
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
New Jersey
New York
Illinois
Connecticut
Utah

Of these, several are safe democratic states (Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California). I'll define "safe" as having voted blue in 6 of the last 6 elections. Let's discount those states for a moment, and instead look at the remainder:

New Mexico
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
Utah

Of this smaller group of 7, New Mexico and Nevada lean democratic, having voted blue in 5 and 4 of the last 6 elections, respectively. [8] These states are likely to continue to vote blue, particularly aided by anti-Trump hispanic voters. So, let's make one more cut to the list, to produce the following pool of states:

Texas
Arizona
Florida
Colorado
Utah

These 5 could post a problem for Trump. Florida and Colorado have split evenly over the last 6 election cycles (3 times red, 3 times blue). A large scale, anti-Trump mobilization of hispanic voters in those states could tip once again into the Democrat's column given the general closeness of their elections. To win in such heavily divided states, you cannot afford to alienate any bloc of voters capable of tipping the scales.

I don't honestly think that Texas will vote blue, but I think Texas will, in a few cycles, become a swing state. That could be the death knell of the GOP's electoral viability. However, that is projecting farther into the future than I really want to do for the sake of this post, so let's just ignore Texas as a rather interesting sidebar.

That, of course, leaves Arizona and Utah. According to Pew Research, "Some 46% of Hispanics in Arizona are eligible to vote, ranking Arizona 20th nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. By contrast, 80% of the state"s white population is eligible to vote." [9] If a significant portion of the 54% who are not registered to vote do register in time for the November elections, Arizona could become a swing state. Obama only lost Arizona by about 200,000 votes in 2012 (out of about 2.3 million cast). [10] This gap could be overcome by a mixture of increase hispanic turnout and registration, along with women voters more decisively rejecting Trump. Moreover, if enough republicans unenthused about Trump don't head out to the polls in November, Arizona could conceivably flip blue.

Utah is interesting as well, because polls there have found that Trump could lose a general election fight in that state. [11] He is unpopular within the Mormon community, who object strongly to his incendiary rhetoric and bullying style. [12] These disgruntled Mormon voters and energized Latinos could make odd bedfellows in a race against Trump. If the former either stay home or are more closely divided between Hillary and Trump than they were in 2012, and if Latinos show up to the polls in big enough numbers, Utah could also flip blue.

While I don't think it is likely that Utah (as safe GOP state by my own definition) would flip, Arizona, which voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, [8] could definitely be put into play. If Trump loses Arizona's 11 electoral delegates, the math becomes harder for him to reach the 270 needed to win.

So, what do you think about how the hispanic vote will factor into the 2016 race? How might it impact the down-ballot, and can Trump recover support within the hispanic community?

Sources

1 - http://www.gallup.com...
2 - http://bangordailynews.com...
3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com...
4 - http://www.nytimes.com...
5 - http://www.houstonchronicle.com...
6 - http://www.usnews.com...
7 - http://www.pewresearch.org...
8 - http://www.270towin.com...
9 - http://www.pewhispanic.org...
10 - https://en.wikipedia.org...
11 - http://www.politicususa.com...
12 - https://www.quora.com...

Here's the answer. https://en.wikipedia.org...
bsh1
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5/5/2016 9:01:32 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 8:57:25 PM, walker_harris3 wrote:
Here's the answer. https://en.wikipedia.org...

That might help him with hispanics, but I seriously doubt it will help him enough. Maybe her joining his ticket could keep Arizona out of democratic hands, but he will still lose among hispanics by double digits. Just because there is a hispanic woman on his ticket will not make people forget about Trump's calls for mass deportation, and his borderline racists comments made throughout the year. Telemundo and Univision could even view her joining his ticket as almost an act of betrayal to the hispanic community.
Live Long and Prosper

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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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16kadams
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5/5/2016 9:05:02 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 8:57:25 PM, walker_harris3 wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:32:58 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Trump, as most are aware, has a massive popularity gap with Hispanics. 12% have a favorable view of his, whereas a whopping 77% have a negative view of him. [1] About 28% viewed Romney favorably around this time 4 years ago (that's more than double Trump's number). [2] By way of comparison, Hillary has an approval rating of 67% among Hispanics. [3]

This all boils down to one simple fact: the hispanic community pretty much hates Trump. This should surprise no one, and it has been an ongoing problem for Trump with his "their rapists" comment and with the kind of intensely negative and critical coverage he gets on networks like Univision and Telemundo.

So, how might this impact him at the polls? In the poll I cited regarding Romney, while 28% approved of him, only 14% of hispanic voters planned to vote for him--a 50% drop in support. What if Trump faced a similar gap, going from 12% to 6%? This wouldn't surprise me, given all the data I noted, and it could spell electoral disaster for Trump in several key states if it holds true. Even if Trump didn't have that 50% gulf between approval ratings and actual votes, 12% may not be enough to secure him the win come November.

Consider that Trump's rhetoric in the race has been linked to a rise in citizenship applications among hispanics eligible to apply. [4] Applications were up 14% from January, and "[t]he pace is picking up by the week, advocates say, and they estimate applications could approach one million in 2016, about 200,000 more than the average in recent years." [4] Several of the applicants interviewed noted that they were seeking citizenship so that they could be able to vote against Trump in the fall, and to have their voices matter in our political process. [4]

But, it is not just citizenship applications which are up. Hispanic citizens who are eligible (but not registered) voters are registering at greater numbers than in years past in order to stop Trump. [5, 6] And, in states like Florida, the gulf between hispanics registering as republican and those registering as democrat is growing more and more, favoring, of course, the democrats. [7] Other polls report that voter enthusiasm is up since 2012 among hispanics.

So, how might all this impact the general election? Here are the 12 states with the highest percentage of hispanics as part of their total population [8]:

New Mexico
California
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
New Jersey
New York
Illinois
Connecticut
Utah

Of these, several are safe democratic states (Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California). I'll define "safe" as having voted blue in 6 of the last 6 elections. Let's discount those states for a moment, and instead look at the remainder:

New Mexico
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
Utah

Of this smaller group of 7, New Mexico and Nevada lean democratic, having voted blue in 5 and 4 of the last 6 elections, respectively. [8] These states are likely to continue to vote blue, particularly aided by anti-Trump hispanic voters. So, let's make one more cut to the list, to produce the following pool of states:

Texas
Arizona
Florida
Colorado
Utah

These 5 could post a problem for Trump. Florida and Colorado have split evenly over the last 6 election cycles (3 times red, 3 times blue). A large scale, anti-Trump mobilization of hispanic voters in those states could tip once again into the Democrat's column given the general closeness of their elections. To win in such heavily divided states, you cannot afford to alienate any bloc of voters capable of tipping the scales.

I don't honestly think that Texas will vote blue, but I think Texas will, in a few cycles, become a swing state. That could be the death knell of the GOP's electoral viability. However, that is projecting farther into the future than I really want to do for the sake of this post, so let's just ignore Texas as a rather interesting sidebar.

That, of course, leaves Arizona and Utah. According to Pew Research, "Some 46% of Hispanics in Arizona are eligible to vote, ranking Arizona 20th nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. By contrast, 80% of the state"s white population is eligible to vote." [9] If a significant portion of the 54% who are not registered to vote do register in time for the November elections, Arizona could become a swing state. Obama only lost Arizona by about 200,000 votes in 2012 (out of about 2.3 million cast). [10] This gap could be overcome by a mixture of increase hispanic turnout and registration, along with women voters more decisively rejecting Trump. Moreover, if enough republicans unenthused about Trump don't head out to the polls in November, Arizona could conceivably flip blue.

Utah is interesting as well, because polls there have found that Trump could lose a general election fight in that state. [11] He is unpopular within the Mormon community, who object strongly to his incendiary rhetoric and bullying style. [12] These disgruntled Mormon voters and energized Latinos could make odd bedfellows in a race against Trump. If the former either stay home or are more closely divided between Hillary and Trump than they were in 2012, and if Latinos show up to the polls in big enough numbers, Utah could also flip blue.

While I don't think it is likely that Utah (as safe GOP state by my own definition) would flip, Arizona, which voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, [8] could definitely be put into play. If Trump loses Arizona's 11 electoral delegates, the math becomes harder for him to reach the 270 needed to win.

So, what do you think about how the hispanic vote will factor into the 2016 race? How might it impact the down-ballot, and can Trump recover support within the hispanic community?

Sources

1 - http://www.gallup.com...
2 - http://bangordailynews.com...
3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com...
4 - http://www.nytimes.com...
5 - http://www.houstonchronicle.com...
6 - http://www.usnews.com...
7 - http://www.pewresearch.org...
8 - http://www.270towin.com...
9 - http://www.pewhispanic.org...
10 - https://en.wikipedia.org...
11 - http://www.politicususa.com...
12 - https://www.quora.com...

Here's the answer. https://en.wikipedia.org...

Her drunken encounter with police will be a problem.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
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walker_harris3
Posts: 273
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5/5/2016 9:06:14 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 9:01:32 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 5/5/2016 8:57:25 PM, walker_harris3 wrote:
Here's the answer. https://en.wikipedia.org...

That might help him with hispanics, but I seriously doubt it will help him enough. Maybe her joining his ticket could keep Arizona out of democratic hands, but he will still lose among hispanics by double digits. Just because there is a hispanic woman on his ticket will not make people forget about Trump's calls for mass deportation, and his borderline racists comments made throughout the year. Telemundo and Univision could even view her joining his ticket as almost an act of betrayal to the hispanic community.

Yea he's definitely not going to get the Hispanic vote but getting as many as possible should be the goal and nominating her would certainly help to achieve that. I think it could be more of a solution to narrow the gap in the women's vote though.
walker_harris3
Posts: 273
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5/5/2016 9:07:33 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 9:05:02 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/5/2016 8:57:25 PM, walker_harris3 wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:32:58 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Trump, as most are aware, has a massive popularity gap with Hispanics. 12% have a favorable view of his, whereas a whopping 77% have a negative view of him. [1] About 28% viewed Romney favorably around this time 4 years ago (that's more than double Trump's number). [2] By way of comparison, Hillary has an approval rating of 67% among Hispanics. [3]

This all boils down to one simple fact: the hispanic community pretty much hates Trump. This should surprise no one, and it has been an ongoing problem for Trump with his "their rapists" comment and with the kind of intensely negative and critical coverage he gets on networks like Univision and Telemundo.

So, how might this impact him at the polls? In the poll I cited regarding Romney, while 28% approved of him, only 14% of hispanic voters planned to vote for him--a 50% drop in support. What if Trump faced a similar gap, going from 12% to 6%? This wouldn't surprise me, given all the data I noted, and it could spell electoral disaster for Trump in several key states if it holds true. Even if Trump didn't have that 50% gulf between approval ratings and actual votes, 12% may not be enough to secure him the win come November.

Consider that Trump's rhetoric in the race has been linked to a rise in citizenship applications among hispanics eligible to apply. [4] Applications were up 14% from January, and "[t]he pace is picking up by the week, advocates say, and they estimate applications could approach one million in 2016, about 200,000 more than the average in recent years." [4] Several of the applicants interviewed noted that they were seeking citizenship so that they could be able to vote against Trump in the fall, and to have their voices matter in our political process. [4]

But, it is not just citizenship applications which are up. Hispanic citizens who are eligible (but not registered) voters are registering at greater numbers than in years past in order to stop Trump. [5, 6] And, in states like Florida, the gulf between hispanics registering as republican and those registering as democrat is growing more and more, favoring, of course, the democrats. [7] Other polls report that voter enthusiasm is up since 2012 among hispanics.

So, how might all this impact the general election? Here are the 12 states with the highest percentage of hispanics as part of their total population [8]:

New Mexico
California
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
New Jersey
New York
Illinois
Connecticut
Utah

Of these, several are safe democratic states (Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California). I'll define "safe" as having voted blue in 6 of the last 6 elections. Let's discount those states for a moment, and instead look at the remainder:

New Mexico
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
Utah

Of this smaller group of 7, New Mexico and Nevada lean democratic, having voted blue in 5 and 4 of the last 6 elections, respectively. [8] These states are likely to continue to vote blue, particularly aided by anti-Trump hispanic voters. So, let's make one more cut to the list, to produce the following pool of states:

Texas
Arizona
Florida
Colorado
Utah

These 5 could post a problem for Trump. Florida and Colorado have split evenly over the last 6 election cycles (3 times red, 3 times blue). A large scale, anti-Trump mobilization of hispanic voters in those states could tip once again into the Democrat's column given the general closeness of their elections. To win in such heavily divided states, you cannot afford to alienate any bloc of voters capable of tipping the scales.

I don't honestly think that Texas will vote blue, but I think Texas will, in a few cycles, become a swing state. That could be the death knell of the GOP's electoral viability. However, that is projecting farther into the future than I really want to do for the sake of this post, so let's just ignore Texas as a rather interesting sidebar.

That, of course, leaves Arizona and Utah. According to Pew Research, "Some 46% of Hispanics in Arizona are eligible to vote, ranking Arizona 20th nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. By contrast, 80% of the state"s white population is eligible to vote." [9] If a significant portion of the 54% who are not registered to vote do register in time for the November elections, Arizona could become a swing state. Obama only lost Arizona by about 200,000 votes in 2012 (out of about 2.3 million cast). [10] This gap could be overcome by a mixture of increase hispanic turnout and registration, along with women voters more decisively rejecting Trump. Moreover, if enough republicans unenthused about Trump don't head out to the polls in November, Arizona could conceivably flip blue.

Utah is interesting as well, because polls there have found that Trump could lose a general election fight in that state. [11] He is unpopular within the Mormon community, who object strongly to his incendiary rhetoric and bullying style. [12] These disgruntled Mormon voters and energized Latinos could make odd bedfellows in a race against Trump. If the former either stay home or are more closely divided between Hillary and Trump than they were in 2012, and if Latinos show up to the polls in big enough numbers, Utah could also flip blue.

While I don't think it is likely that Utah (as safe GOP state by my own definition) would flip, Arizona, which voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, [8] could definitely be put into play. If Trump loses Arizona's 11 electoral delegates, the math becomes harder for him to reach the 270 needed to win.

So, what do you think about how the hispanic vote will factor into the 2016 race? How might it impact the down-ballot, and can Trump recover support within the hispanic community?

Sources

1 - http://www.gallup.com...
2 - http://bangordailynews.com...
3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com...
4 - http://www.nytimes.com...
5 - http://www.houstonchronicle.com...
6 - http://www.usnews.com...
7 - http://www.pewresearch.org...
8 - http://www.270towin.com...
9 - http://www.pewhispanic.org...
10 - https://en.wikipedia.org...
11 - http://www.politicususa.com...
12 - https://www.quora.com...

Here's the answer. https://en.wikipedia.org...

Her drunken encounter with police will be a problem.

Not as much of a problem as an FBI investigation.
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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5/5/2016 9:08:01 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 9:07:33 PM, walker_harris3 wrote:
At 5/5/2016 9:05:02 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 5/5/2016 8:57:25 PM, walker_harris3 wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:32:58 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Trump, as most are aware, has a massive popularity gap with Hispanics. 12% have a favorable view of his, whereas a whopping 77% have a negative view of him. [1] About 28% viewed Romney favorably around this time 4 years ago (that's more than double Trump's number). [2] By way of comparison, Hillary has an approval rating of 67% among Hispanics. [3]

This all boils down to one simple fact: the hispanic community pretty much hates Trump. This should surprise no one, and it has been an ongoing problem for Trump with his "their rapists" comment and with the kind of intensely negative and critical coverage he gets on networks like Univision and Telemundo.

So, how might this impact him at the polls? In the poll I cited regarding Romney, while 28% approved of him, only 14% of hispanic voters planned to vote for him--a 50% drop in support. What if Trump faced a similar gap, going from 12% to 6%? This wouldn't surprise me, given all the data I noted, and it could spell electoral disaster for Trump in several key states if it holds true. Even if Trump didn't have that 50% gulf between approval ratings and actual votes, 12% may not be enough to secure him the win come November.

Consider that Trump's rhetoric in the race has been linked to a rise in citizenship applications among hispanics eligible to apply. [4] Applications were up 14% from January, and "[t]he pace is picking up by the week, advocates say, and they estimate applications could approach one million in 2016, about 200,000 more than the average in recent years." [4] Several of the applicants interviewed noted that they were seeking citizenship so that they could be able to vote against Trump in the fall, and to have their voices matter in our political process. [4]

But, it is not just citizenship applications which are up. Hispanic citizens who are eligible (but not registered) voters are registering at greater numbers than in years past in order to stop Trump. [5, 6] And, in states like Florida, the gulf between hispanics registering as republican and those registering as democrat is growing more and more, favoring, of course, the democrats. [7] Other polls report that voter enthusiasm is up since 2012 among hispanics.

So, how might all this impact the general election? Here are the 12 states with the highest percentage of hispanics as part of their total population [8]:

New Mexico
California
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
New Jersey
New York
Illinois
Connecticut
Utah

Of these, several are safe democratic states (Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California). I'll define "safe" as having voted blue in 6 of the last 6 elections. Let's discount those states for a moment, and instead look at the remainder:

New Mexico
Texas
Arizona
Nevada
Florida
Colorado
Utah

Of this smaller group of 7, New Mexico and Nevada lean democratic, having voted blue in 5 and 4 of the last 6 elections, respectively. [8] These states are likely to continue to vote blue, particularly aided by anti-Trump hispanic voters. So, let's make one more cut to the list, to produce the following pool of states:

Texas
Arizona
Florida
Colorado
Utah

These 5 could post a problem for Trump. Florida and Colorado have split evenly over the last 6 election cycles (3 times red, 3 times blue). A large scale, anti-Trump mobilization of hispanic voters in those states could tip once again into the Democrat's column given the general closeness of their elections. To win in such heavily divided states, you cannot afford to alienate any bloc of voters capable of tipping the scales.

I don't honestly think that Texas will vote blue, but I think Texas will, in a few cycles, become a swing state. That could be the death knell of the GOP's electoral viability. However, that is projecting farther into the future than I really want to do for the sake of this post, so let's just ignore Texas as a rather interesting sidebar.

That, of course, leaves Arizona and Utah. According to Pew Research, "Some 46% of Hispanics in Arizona are eligible to vote, ranking Arizona 20th nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. By contrast, 80% of the state"s white population is eligible to vote." [9] If a significant portion of the 54% who are not registered to vote do register in time for the November elections, Arizona could become a swing state. Obama only lost Arizona by about 200,000 votes in 2012 (out of about 2.3 million cast). [10] This gap could be overcome by a mixture of increase hispanic turnout and registration, along with women voters more decisively rejecting Trump. Moreover, if enough republicans unenthused about Trump don't head out to the polls in November, Arizona could conceivably flip blue.

Utah is interesting as well, because polls there have found that Trump could lose a general election fight in that state. [11] He is unpopular within the Mormon community, who object strongly to his incendiary rhetoric and bullying style. [12] These disgruntled Mormon voters and energized Latinos could make odd bedfellows in a race against Trump. If the former either stay home or are more closely divided between Hillary and Trump than they were in 2012, and if Latinos show up to the polls in big enough numbers, Utah could also flip blue.

While I don't think it is likely that Utah (as safe GOP state by my own definition) would flip, Arizona, which voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, [8] could definitely be put into play. If Trump loses Arizona's 11 electoral delegates, the math becomes harder for him to reach the 270 needed to win.

So, what do you think about how the hispanic vote will factor into the 2016 race? How might it impact the down-ballot, and can Trump recover support within the hispanic community?

Sources

1 - http://www.gallup.com...
2 - http://bangordailynews.com...
3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com...
4 - http://www.nytimes.com...
5 - http://www.houstonchronicle.com...
6 - http://www.usnews.com...
7 - http://www.pewresearch.org...
8 - http://www.270towin.com...
9 - http://www.pewhispanic.org...
10 - https://en.wikipedia.org...
11 - http://www.politicususa.com...
12 - https://www.quora.com...

Here's the answer. https://en.wikipedia.org...

Her drunken encounter with police will be a problem.

Not as much of a problem as an FBI investigation.
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"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
bsh1
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5/5/2016 10:41:55 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?

Thanks.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


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TBR
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5/5/2016 11:13:13 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 8:00:47 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 5/5/2016 6:08:39 PM, imabench wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:32:58 AM, bsh1 wrote:

So, what do you think about how the hispanic vote will factor into the 2016 race?

If Hillary ends up picking Julian Castro as her VP like some people think she will, hispanics will vote for her the way black people did for Obama. She'll certainly win the hispanic vote, its only a question of by how much

I really hope he is not her VP.

I'm betting on it. Since I dislike almost everything she does, why expect anything other than a pandering VP choice
bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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5/6/2016 7:10:19 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
Love more commentary on this...
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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Maikuru
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5/6/2016 9:44:27 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 5:48:17 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I think that the Hispanic community is actually at fault here. American citizens who are ethnically Hispanic are basically "siding with their illegal immigrant Hispanic brethren" instead of respecting the laws of their own country.

I'm an American citizen who is ethnically Hispanic and I can't make heads or tails of your comment. What exactly are me and my community at fault for here?
"You assume I wouldn't want to burn this whole place to the ground."
- lamerde

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Greyparrot
Posts: 14,211
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5/6/2016 10:52:09 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/6/2016 9:44:27 AM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:48:17 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I think that the Hispanic community is actually at fault here. American citizens who are ethnically Hispanic are basically "siding with their illegal immigrant Hispanic brethren" instead of respecting the laws of their own country.

I'm an American citizen who is ethnically Hispanic and I can't make heads or tails of your comment. What exactly are me and my community at fault for here?

There's actually more American Hispanics for the wall than the media shows. I think Vox is wrong on this.
Sam7411
Posts: 959
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5/6/2016 10:55:02 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/6/2016 10:52:09 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 5/6/2016 9:44:27 AM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:48:17 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I think that the Hispanic community is actually at fault here. American citizens who are ethnically Hispanic are basically "siding with their illegal immigrant Hispanic brethren" instead of respecting the laws of their own country.

I'm an American citizen who is ethnically Hispanic and I can't make heads or tails of your comment. What exactly are me and my community at fault for here?

There's actually more American Hispanics for the wall than the media shows. I think Vox is wrong on this.

If you show me actual evidence...
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,211
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5/6/2016 10:59:03 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/5/2016 10:41:55 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
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Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
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Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
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Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?: :: Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?

Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
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Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
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Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?: :: Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?: :: Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?

Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
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Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?: :: Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
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Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
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Thanks.: :: Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
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Could we reign in the massive quote pyramids?
Thanks.

No prob.
Greyparrot
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5/6/2016 11:01:08 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/6/2016 10:55:02 AM, Sam7411 wrote:
At 5/6/2016 10:52:09 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 5/6/2016 9:44:27 AM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:48:17 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I think that the Hispanic community is actually at fault here. American citizens who are ethnically Hispanic are basically "siding with their illegal immigrant Hispanic brethren" instead of respecting the laws of their own country.

I'm an American citizen who is ethnically Hispanic and I can't make heads or tails of your comment. What exactly are me and my community at fault for here?

There's actually more American Hispanics for the wall than the media shows. I think Vox is wrong on this.

If you show me actual evidence...

http://www.washingtonpost.com...
Sam7411
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5/6/2016 11:19:45 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/6/2016 11:01:08 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 5/6/2016 10:55:02 AM, Sam7411 wrote:
At 5/6/2016 10:52:09 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 5/6/2016 9:44:27 AM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:48:17 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I think that the Hispanic community is actually at fault here. American citizens who are ethnically Hispanic are basically "siding with their illegal immigrant Hispanic brethren" instead of respecting the laws of their own country.

I'm an American citizen who is ethnically Hispanic and I can't make heads or tails of your comment. What exactly are me and my community at fault for here?

There's actually more American Hispanics for the wall than the media shows. I think Vox is wrong on this.

If you show me actual evidence...

http://www.washingtonpost.com...

Lol all you can do to back up that statement is find a pic is a pic of an Hispanic against illegal immigration
Greyparrot
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5/6/2016 3:13:47 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/6/2016 11:19:45 AM, Sam7411 wrote:
At 5/6/2016 11:01:08 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 5/6/2016 10:55:02 AM, Sam7411 wrote:
At 5/6/2016 10:52:09 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 5/6/2016 9:44:27 AM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:48:17 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I think that the Hispanic community is actually at fault here. American citizens who are ethnically Hispanic are basically "siding with their illegal immigrant Hispanic brethren" instead of respecting the laws of their own country.

I'm an American citizen who is ethnically Hispanic and I can't make heads or tails of your comment. What exactly are me and my community at fault for here?

There's actually more American Hispanics for the wall than the media shows. I think Vox is wrong on this.

If you show me actual evidence...

http://www.washingtonpost.com...

Lol all you can do to back up that statement is find a pic is a pic of an Hispanic against illegal immigration

heh
Vox_Veritas
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5/6/2016 3:21:51 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/6/2016 9:44:27 AM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:48:17 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I think that the Hispanic community is actually at fault here. American citizens who are ethnically Hispanic are basically "siding with their illegal immigrant Hispanic brethren" instead of respecting the laws of their own country.

I'm an American citizen who is ethnically Hispanic and I can't make heads or tails of your comment. What exactly are me and my community at fault for here?

I'm using "Hispanic community" as a generalisation; obviously there is at least one Hispanic-American citizen somewhere in the country who opposes illegal immigration.
Hispanic-American citizens are members of this country like anyone else. That means their loyalty should be to this country. Despite this, they want our government to do nothing to stop the incoming torrent of illegal immigrants just because most of the illegal immigrants are ethnically Hispanic just like them.
A Hispanic-American who was born in the United States should be no more offended by Donald Trump's comments on illegal immigration than, say, a black person or a white person. Yet they are, because they don't want anything to happen to illegal immigrants who share their race.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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Greyparrot
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5/6/2016 3:31:37 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/6/2016 3:21:51 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 5/6/2016 9:44:27 AM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:48:17 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I think that the Hispanic community is actually at fault here. American citizens who are ethnically Hispanic are basically "siding with their illegal immigrant Hispanic brethren" instead of respecting the laws of their own country.

I'm an American citizen who is ethnically Hispanic and I can't make heads or tails of your comment. What exactly are me and my community at fault for here?

I'm using "Hispanic community" as a generalisation; obviously there is at least one Hispanic-American citizen somewhere in the country who opposes illegal immigration.
Hispanic-American citizens are members of this country like anyone else. That means their loyalty should be to this country. Despite this, they want our government to do nothing to stop the incoming torrent of illegal immigrants just because most of the illegal immigrants are ethnically Hispanic just like them.
A Hispanic-American who was born in the United States should be no more offended by Donald Trump's comments on illegal immigration than, say, a black person or a white person. Yet they are, because they don't want anything to happen to illegal immigrants who share their race.

How dare you say Hispanics cling to their race and their tacos?
dylancatlow
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5/6/2016 4:11:23 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
In a typical election something like 27 percent of Hispanics vote Republican. This implies that among Hispanic Republicans 44 percent approve of Trump (12 divided by 27). This is only slightly below the average for Republicans as a whole (53 percent if memory serves me correctly). So despite Trump's harsh stance toward illegal immigrants, it doesn't appear that the segment of Hispanics voters who would even think of going for a Republican have really been turned off that much by Trump's comments.
Maikuru
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5/6/2016 5:28:59 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/6/2016 3:21:51 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 5/6/2016 9:44:27 AM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:48:17 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I think that the Hispanic community is actually at fault here. American citizens who are ethnically Hispanic are basically "siding with their illegal immigrant Hispanic brethren" instead of respecting the laws of their own country.

I'm an American citizen who is ethnically Hispanic and I can't make heads or tails of your comment. What exactly are me and my community at fault for here?

Hispanic-American citizens are members of this country like anyone else. That means their loyalty should be to this country.

Why is that?

Despite this, they want our government to do nothing to stop the incoming torrent of illegal immigrants just because most of the illegal immigrants are ethnically Hispanic just like them.

Could you support these claims?

A Hispanic-American who was born in the United States should be no more offended by Donald Trump's comments on illegal immigration than, say, a black person or a white person. Yet they are, because they don't want anything to happen to illegal immigrants who share their race.

On what basis are you supposing to understand how US citizens should feel? How Hispanic Americans specifically should feel? Why Hispanic Americans feel what they do feel now?
"You assume I wouldn't want to burn this whole place to the ground."
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Vox_Veritas
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5/6/2016 6:26:48 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/6/2016 5:28:59 PM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/6/2016 3:21:51 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 5/6/2016 9:44:27 AM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/5/2016 5:48:17 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I think that the Hispanic community is actually at fault here. American citizens who are ethnically Hispanic are basically "siding with their illegal immigrant Hispanic brethren" instead of respecting the laws of their own country.

I'm an American citizen who is ethnically Hispanic and I can't make heads or tails of your comment. What exactly are me and my community at fault for here?

Hispanic-American citizens are members of this country like anyone else. That means their loyalty should be to this country.

Why is that?

Well, this is their country too, is it not?

Despite this, they want our government to do nothing to stop the incoming torrent of illegal immigrants just because most of the illegal immigrants are ethnically Hispanic just like them.

Could you support these claims?

Before: Trump says "I'm gonna deport the illegals!"
Afterwards: Hispanics hate Trump far more than the rest of America does.

A Hispanic-American who was born in the United States should be no more offended by Donald Trump's comments on illegal immigration than, say, a black person or a white person. Yet they are, because they don't want anything to happen to illegal immigrants who share their race.

On what basis are you supposing to understand how US citizens should feel? How Hispanic Americans specifically should feel? Why Hispanic Americans feel what they do feel now?
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