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Trumps General Election Dilemma

Double_R
Posts: 4,886
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5/7/2016 6:04:35 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
Trump has gotten to this point by convincing people that he is not a politician and will tell it like it is. However as we head into the general election, he has two serious problems.

1. Much of the country is turned off by his childish behavior and habitual offensive remarks. If he is going to have a chance to win he will need to drastically change his approach, which means abandoning the very reason why he has become so appealing to those that voted for him in the first place.

2. He is going to need conservative voters. And unlike he managed in the primaries, he will not be able to avoid a substantive debate on policy. Trump has taken liberal positions on many issues in the past, if he sticks to those positions he will alienate conservatives. If he changes those positions, he will demonstrate that he is just another politician doing whatever it takes to gain votes, which again means abandoning the very reason why he has become so appealing to those that voted for him in the first place.

How does Trump deal with this?
YYW
Posts: 36,286
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5/7/2016 7:38:28 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/7/2016 6:04:35 PM, Double_R wrote:
Trump has gotten to this point by convincing people that he is not a politician and will tell it like it is. However as we head into the general election, he has two serious problems.

1. Much of the country is turned off by his childish behavior and habitual offensive remarks. If he is going to have a chance to win he will need to drastically change his approach, which means abandoning the very reason why he has become so appealing to those that voted for him in the first place.

I agree this is an issue, and it's a tough tactical call, especially given the extent of establishment Republicans who have gone so far as to totally renounce him, and who are refusing to attend the convention. That list includes both George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, and others. When all the living former presidents from your party disavow you, you've got a problem.

But, at the same time, it is the rejection of those people which give Trump his popularity. While figures like Paul Ryan struggle to decide whether and how, if at all, they're going to support Donald Trump, Trump gains a lot of political credibility with a lot of people who believe that the system is rigged and out to screw them.

What I don't think is even possible is uniting those two coalitions. They are not the only coalitions within the Republican party. There are "true conservatives" like Ted Cruz and Scott Walker. There are libertarian types like Ron and Rand Paul. etc.

But tactically... even if I don't think that all the factions can be united, what issue remains is whether the *attempt* to unite them will result in Trump's eventual loss, because the reasons support is gained from one group or another are mutually exclusive, and he can't have both the base/independents and the establishment assuming that the establishment doesn't change.

What I think may happen is that the establishment is going to change if they decide they want to win, but it's going to be hard one way or another.

2. He is going to need conservative voters. And unlike he managed in the primaries, he will not be able to avoid a substantive debate on policy. Trump has taken liberal positions on many issues in the past, if he sticks to those positions he will alienate conservatives. If he changes those positions, he will demonstrate that he is just another politician doing whatever it takes to gain votes, which again means abandoning the very reason why he has become so appealing to those that voted for him in the first place.

How does Trump deal with this?

I don't think that Trump's support for socially liberal ideas is going to hurt him against Hillary Clinton for two reasons: first, regardless of whatever social positions he's announced in the past, Hillary is vastly further to the left (in both rhetoric and action) than Trump is; and second, the majority of voters in the Republican party aren't especially concerned about social issue. Regarding the second reason, we know that social issues are not of primal concern because if they were then Ted Cruz would have led the polls from the start.
Tsar of DDO
DPMartin
Posts: 1,096
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5/7/2016 8:32:28 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/7/2016 6:04:35 PM, Double_R wrote:
Trump has gotten to this point by convincing people that he is not a politician and will tell it like it is. However as we head into the general election, he has two serious problems.

1. Much of the country is turned off by his childish behavior and habitual offensive remarks. If he is going to have a chance to win he will need to drastically change his approach, which means abandoning the very reason why he has become so appealing to those that voted for him in the first place.

2. He is going to need conservative voters. And unlike he managed in the primaries, he will not be able to avoid a substantive debate on policy. Trump has taken liberal positions on many issues in the past, if he sticks to those positions he will alienate conservatives. If he changes those positions, he will demonstrate that he is just another politician doing whatever it takes to gain votes, which again means abandoning the very reason why he has become so appealing to those that voted for him in the first place.

How does Trump deal with this?

If trump had trouble getting votes from the public he wouldn"t be where he is, he managed to get public approval without the support of many republican politicians and their corporate sponsors which is even harder to do. and a matter of fact, you are not supposed to be able to do. And is probably why most politicians aren"t behind him, because trump isn"t obliged to the corporate community, that they are. And are force by their sponsors to try and get trump in line with their interests by not backing him. People forget that US media is owned by corporations and US media serves the interest of the corporation. For instance, note the brutal effort to defame and twist whatever he says to make it look as politically incorrect as possible. Like the comment with the importing of Muslim refugees. They toke five words of it pasted it all over their screens and omitted the rest of his comment. And told the public for hours what they should think of it. And that"s one of many.

So childish remarks I don"t know that that is so, it works and when it comes to political incorrectness he"s got Teflon where as Clinton doesn"t. not as dumb as it looks is it. What was his latest remark they are trying to say is rude, it was something to the order that if Clinton wasn"t a woman she wouldn"t have a chance don"t hold me to the quote. The point is, now though the dem"s are trying to blow it off, they are required to show what Clinton"s performance is, and he's still in the race without real reprisal because the media has proven ineffective in taking him out of the race. which shows what the public really believes, because the media has already played and shown their cards.
Double_R
Posts: 4,886
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5/8/2016 3:22:56 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/7/2016 8:32:28 PM, DPMartin wrote:
At 5/7/2016 6:04:35 PM, Double_R wrote:
Trump has gotten to this point by convincing people that he is not a politician and will tell it like it is. However as we head into the general election, he has two serious problems.

1. Much of the country is turned off by his childish behavior and habitual offensive remarks. If he is going to have a chance to win he will need to drastically change his approach, which means abandoning the very reason why he has become so appealing to those that voted for him in the first place.

2. He is going to need conservative voters. And unlike he managed in the primaries, he will not be able to avoid a substantive debate on policy. Trump has taken liberal positions on many issues in the past, if he sticks to those positions he will alienate conservatives. If he changes those positions, he will demonstrate that he is just another politician doing whatever it takes to gain votes, which again means abandoning the very reason why he has become so appealing to those that voted for him in the first place.

How does Trump deal with this?


If trump had trouble getting votes from the public he wouldn"t be where he is, he managed to get public approval without the support of many republican politicians and their corporate sponsors which is even harder to do. and a matter of fact, you are not supposed to be able to do. And is probably why most politicians aren"t behind him, because trump isn"t obliged to the corporate community, that they are. And are force by their sponsors to try and get trump in line with their interests by not backing him. People forget that US media is owned by corporations and US media serves the interest of the corporation. For instance, note the brutal effort to defame and twist whatever he says to make it look as politically incorrect as possible. Like the comment with the importing of Muslim refugees. They toke five words of it pasted it all over their screens and omitted the rest of his comment. And told the public for hours what they should think of it. And that"s one of many.

So childish remarks I don"t know that that is so, it works and when it comes to political incorrectness he"s got Teflon where as Clinton doesn"t. not as dumb as it looks is it. What was his latest remark they are trying to say is rude, it was something to the order that if Clinton wasn"t a woman she wouldn"t have a chance don"t hold me to the quote. The point is, now though the dem"s are trying to blow it off, they are required to show what Clinton"s performance is, and he's still in the race without real reprisal because the media has proven ineffective in taking him out of the race. which shows what the public really believes, because the media has already played and shown their cards.

You're taking as if the far right republican base is representative of the entire country, not even close.

Do you disagree that Trump faces a dilemma, or do you just think enough people will just vote for him whatever he does?
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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5/8/2016 3:27:19 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/8/2016 3:22:56 PM, Double_R wrote:

Do you disagree that Trump faces a dilemma, or do you just think enough people will just vote for him whatever he does?

Mostly this.

I heard alot of the 70% people who view Trump as "unfavorable" when asked: "so you are not voting for him?"

Reply: "No I still hate him for being a jerk, but I will still vote for him because we need to get rid of the worse jerks currently in DC, and there's more important things to consider like the economy....etc"
Double_R
Posts: 4,886
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5/8/2016 3:32:43 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/8/2016 3:27:19 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 5/8/2016 3:22:56 PM, Double_R wrote:

Do you disagree that Trump faces a dilemma, or do you just think enough people will just vote for him whatever he does?

Mostly this.

I heard alot of the 70% people who view Trump as "unfavorable" when asked: "so you are not voting for him?"

Reply: "No I still hate him for being a jerk, but I will still vote for him because we need to get rid of the worse jerks currently in DC, and there's more important things to consider like the economy....etc"

There is no question that people are fed up with DC, but that does not mean that a majority of Americans are willing to instead vote for someone ignorant and bigoted enough to make the banning of Muslims from entering the US one of his central policy proposals, and current polling data certainly shows this. How do you just dismiss that?
vortex86
Posts: 559
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5/8/2016 10:27:26 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
I think Trump's largest General Election Dilemma is Obama. Obama has shown that he is going to campaign against him. The following behind Obama could help Clinton get past the close battle.