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Trump is Not Growing the GOP

bsh1
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5/24/2016 2:40:57 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
Recent data seem to support the idea that Trump is exciting people who would normally vote Republican anyway; he is not bringing new voters or Democratic voters into the Republican fold. To quote from the article:

[N]ew data--voter files combined with field polling from these states collected by a Republican data analysis firm that worked for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's presidential campaign--lends more weight to the conclusion that Trump's candidacy is not game-changing, or particularly well-positioned for the general election.

[...]

[T]he data so far does indicate that Trump has not yet significantly grown the Republican Party. There are small numbers of new voters who came to the polls this year, and in one state--New Hampshire--that might be enough to help Trump win. But in several other swing states--Virginia, Ohio and Michigan--if the Democrats can reassemble the Obama coalition, Trump's new support is not enough to win.


[https://www.yahoo.com...]

It was an interesting report, and I think this is certainly a topic that the campaigns (and politics wonks) should be talking about. So, what are your thoughts? Comments? Reactions?
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Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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5/24/2016 2:48:16 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
If somebody who supports a single payer system, increasing the minimum wage, making legal immigration easier, supports transgendered bathrooms, is pro choice, pro union and has an isolationist foreign policy can't expand the base, then it's pointless to even try.
bsh1
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5/24/2016 2:56:18 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 2:48:16 AM, Wylted wrote:
If somebody who supports a single payer system, increasing the minimum wage, making legal immigration easier, supports transgendered bathrooms, is pro choice, pro union and has an isolationist foreign policy can't expand the base, then it's pointless to even try.

Such a person could expand the base if the racist and violent overtones weren't there. That isn't to say Trump is racist (I don't know his mind well enough to say). But he gives off a racist vibe on occasion.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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Peepette
Posts: 1,242
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5/24/2016 3:03:53 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
I think Trump is riding in a special turnip truck. There are those Republicans that will vote the party no matter who runs on the ticket. He fits the bill for those in the party seeking a more moderate stance. But the overriding factor I feel, is he's an absolute clown. People who would typically take a second look at the party if the right candidate were running are hindered by his bombasity. Is Trump a presidential candidate that fits the personna of Republican candidates who have run in the past? Not even close.
Wylted
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5/24/2016 3:06:33 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 2:56:18 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:48:16 AM, Wylted wrote:
If somebody who supports a single payer system, increasing the minimum wage, making legal immigration easier, supports transgendered bathrooms, is pro choice, pro union and has an isolationist foreign policy can't expand the base, then it's pointless to even try.

Such a person could expand the base if the racist and violent overtones weren't there. That isn't to say Trump is racist (I don't know his mind well enough to say). But he gives off a racist vibe on occasion.

His rhetoric is horrible, but I also wonder if he would not still be painted as a racist or sexist regardless of his rhetoric.

I also expect people to be smart enough to look at what he is saying instead of the tone, but it doesn't seem to be that way.

With that being said, i think the polling has got to be wrong. Everyday I hear Democrats who say they are voting republican for the first time in their life because of Trump. I think he is drawing more people in, but unfortunately he is also pushing more people who would traditionally vote republican away.

I can tell you, if Hillary as unpopular as she is and with none of the crossover appeal Trump has wins, the GOP should really consider a change of strategy.

Maybe just focus a bit more on the working class, and stop being so ignorant with social issues, I mean what type of idiot risks federal funding over bathroom laws that are completely unenforceable?
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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5/24/2016 3:22:23 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 3:06:33 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:56:18 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:48:16 AM, Wylted wrote:
If somebody who supports a single payer system, increasing the minimum wage, making legal immigration easier, supports transgendered bathrooms, is pro choice, pro union and has an isolationist foreign policy can't expand the base, then it's pointless to even try.

Such a person could expand the base if the racist and violent overtones weren't there. That isn't to say Trump is racist (I don't know his mind well enough to say). But he gives off a racist vibe on occasion.

His rhetoric is horrible, but I also wonder if he would not still be painted as a racist or sexist regardless of his rhetoric.

I also expect people to be smart enough to look at what he is saying instead of the tone, but it doesn't seem to be that way.

With that being said, i think the polling has got to be wrong. Everyday I hear Democrats who say they are voting republican for the first time in their life because of Trump. I think he is drawing more people in, but unfortunately he is also pushing more people who would traditionally vote republican away.

I can tell you, if Hillary as unpopular as she is and with none of the crossover appeal Trump has wins, the GOP should really consider a change of strategy.

Maybe just focus a bit more on the working class, and stop being so ignorant with social issues, I mean what type of idiot risks federal funding over bathroom laws that are completely unenforceable?

If anyone believed the sh1t that trickles out of his gob every time it is open, that may be true, but even republicans are skeptical of a moron. As to anadoctial evidence, I know many republicans, very very few are happy this train wreck. Its doubtful they will vote for Clinton, but I would guess a good number just don't vote top of the ticket.
bballcrook21
Posts: 4,468
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5/24/2016 3:23:47 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 3:22:23 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 3:06:33 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:56:18 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:48:16 AM, Wylted wrote:
If somebody who supports a single payer system, increasing the minimum wage, making legal immigration easier, supports transgendered bathrooms, is pro choice, pro union and has an isolationist foreign policy can't expand the base, then it's pointless to even try.

Such a person could expand the base if the racist and violent overtones weren't there. That isn't to say Trump is racist (I don't know his mind well enough to say). But he gives off a racist vibe on occasion.

His rhetoric is horrible, but I also wonder if he would not still be painted as a racist or sexist regardless of his rhetoric.

I also expect people to be smart enough to look at what he is saying instead of the tone, but it doesn't seem to be that way.

With that being said, i think the polling has got to be wrong. Everyday I hear Democrats who say they are voting republican for the first time in their life because of Trump. I think he is drawing more people in, but unfortunately he is also pushing more people who would traditionally vote republican away.

I can tell you, if Hillary as unpopular as she is and with none of the crossover appeal Trump has wins, the GOP should really consider a change of strategy.

Maybe just focus a bit more on the working class, and stop being so ignorant with social issues, I mean what type of idiot risks federal funding over bathroom laws that are completely unenforceable?

If anyone believed the sh1t that trickles out of his gob every time it is open, that may be true, but even republicans are skeptical of a moron. As to anadoctial evidence, I know many republicans, very very few are happy this train wreck. Its doubtful they will vote for Clinton, but I would guess a good number just don't vote top of the ticket.

Are you talking about Bernie here, or?
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Peepette
Posts: 1,242
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5/24/2016 3:28:20 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 3:06:33 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:56:18 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:48:16 AM, Wylted wrote:
If somebody who supports a single payer system, increasing the minimum wage, making legal immigration easier, supports transgendered bathrooms, is pro choice, pro union and has an isolationist foreign policy can't expand the base, then it's pointless to even try.

Such a person could expand the base if the racist and violent overtones weren't there. That isn't to say Trump is racist (I don't know his mind well enough to say). But he gives off a racist vibe on occasion.

His rhetoric is horrible, but I also wonder if he would not still be painted as a racist or sexist regardless of his rhetoric.

I also expect people to be smart enough to look at what he is saying instead of the tone, but it doesn't seem to be that way.

With that being said, i think the polling has got to be wrong. Everyday I hear Democrats who say they are voting republican for the first time in their life because of Trump. I think he is drawing more people in, but unfortunately he is also pushing more people who would traditionally vote republican away.

I can tell you, if Hillary as unpopular as she is and with none of the crossover appeal Trump has wins, the GOP should really consider a change of strategy.

Maybe just focus a bit more on the working class, and stop being so ignorant with social issues, I mean what type of idiot risks federal funding over bathroom laws that are completely unenforceable?

There seems to be more news over the bathroom laws than actual real issues. I'm amazed how Shillary and Trump got this far. This is the biggest disappointment in the selection of candidates I've seen in 40 years. Most of my contemporaries are shaking their heads over how the meaningfulness of the presidency has shrunk and the lack of weight individual votes have due to both parties rigging the voting rules; the delegate selection process and rules governing them, gerrymandering as well as voter ID laws to name a few. Our votes are meaning less and less with each passing election. Shillery is what the Dems fenagled as their pick of choice from the beginning. Trump is a result of the Rep party not having their sh#t together along with being ineffectual and uncompromising on the hill.
TBR
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5/24/2016 3:31:23 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 3:23:47 AM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 3:22:23 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 3:06:33 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:56:18 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:48:16 AM, Wylted wrote:
If somebody who supports a single payer system, increasing the minimum wage, making legal immigration easier, supports transgendered bathrooms, is pro choice, pro union and has an isolationist foreign policy can't expand the base, then it's pointless to even try.

Such a person could expand the base if the racist and violent overtones weren't there. That isn't to say Trump is racist (I don't know his mind well enough to say). But he gives off a racist vibe on occasion.

His rhetoric is horrible, but I also wonder if he would not still be painted as a racist or sexist regardless of his rhetoric.

I also expect people to be smart enough to look at what he is saying instead of the tone, but it doesn't seem to be that way.

With that being said, i think the polling has got to be wrong. Everyday I hear Democrats who say they are voting republican for the first time in their life because of Trump. I think he is drawing more people in, but unfortunately he is also pushing more people who would traditionally vote republican away.

I can tell you, if Hillary as unpopular as she is and with none of the crossover appeal Trump has wins, the GOP should really consider a change of strategy.

Maybe just focus a bit more on the working class, and stop being so ignorant with social issues, I mean what type of idiot risks federal funding over bathroom laws that are completely unenforceable?

If anyone believed the sh1t that trickles out of his gob every time it is open, that may be true, but even republicans are skeptical of a moron. As to anadoctial evidence, I know many republicans, very very few are happy this train wreck. Its doubtful they will vote for Clinton, but I would guess a good number just don't vote top of the ticket.

Are you talking about Bernie here, or?

Well, I am a Sanders supporter, and may/likely sit out the top of the ticket for the first time in my life. However, the point being made is that the same is true for Republicans. The old republicans (yea you need them to win) are not happy with Trump. The Country Club republicans HATE him. The professional republicans (Dr, Attorneys, CPAs etc.) all think he is a buffoon. They are mortified at the thought of a Trump presidency.

The guy is a wreck.
Peepette
Posts: 1,242
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5/24/2016 3:41:36 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 3:31:23 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 3:23:47 AM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 3:22:23 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 3:06:33 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:56:18 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:48:16 AM, Wylted wrote:
If somebody who supports a single payer system, increasing the minimum wage, making legal immigration easier, supports transgendered bathrooms, is pro choice, pro union and has an isolationist foreign policy can't expand the base, then it's pointless to even try.

Such a person could expand the base if the racist and violent overtones weren't there. That isn't to say Trump is racist (I don't know his mind well enough to say). But he gives off a racist vibe on occasion.

His rhetoric is horrible, but I also wonder if he would not still be painted as a racist or sexist regardless of his rhetoric.

I also expect people to be smart enough to look at what he is saying instead of the tone, but it doesn't seem to be that way.

With that being said, i think the polling has got to be wrong. Everyday I hear Democrats who say they are voting republican for the first time in their life because of Trump. I think he is drawing more people in, but unfortunately he is also pushing more people who would traditionally vote republican away.

I can tell you, if Hillary as unpopular as she is and with none of the crossover appeal Trump has wins, the GOP should really consider a change of strategy.

Maybe just focus a bit more on the working class, and stop being so ignorant with social issues, I mean what type of idiot risks federal funding over bathroom laws that are completely unenforceable?

If anyone believed the sh1t that trickles out of his gob every time it is open, that may be true, but even republicans are skeptical of a moron. As to anadoctial evidence, I know many republicans, very very few are happy this train wreck. Its doubtful they will vote for Clinton, but I would guess a good number just don't vote top of the ticket.

Are you talking about Bernie here, or?

Well, I am a Sanders supporter, and may/likely sit out the top of the ticket for the first time in my life. However, the point being made is that the same is true for Republicans. The old republicans (yea you need them to win) are not happy with Trump. The Country Club republicans HATE him. The professional republicans (Dr, Attorneys, CPAs etc.) all think he is a buffoon. They are mortified at the thought of a Trump presidency.

The guy is a wreck.

I think many more than you will be voting down ticket. I'm not the biggest Bernie fan mostly because he can't possibly do even half of what he proposing with a Rep held congress. If he does by chance manage anything he'll blow the budget out of the water. Even with this in mind, a little or no action 4 year term is looking much better than a term with either of the two chumps.
Objectivity
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5/24/2016 3:59:56 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 2:40:57 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Recent data seem to support the idea that Trump is exciting people who would normally vote Republican anyway; he is not bringing new voters or Democratic voters into the Republican fold. To quote from the article:

[N]ew data--voter files combined with field polling from these states collected by a Republican data analysis firm that worked for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's presidential campaign--lends more weight to the conclusion that Trump's candidacy is not game-changing, or particularly well-positioned for the general election.

[...]

[T]he data so far does indicate that Trump has not yet significantly grown the Republican Party. There are small numbers of new voters who came to the polls this year, and in one state--New Hampshire--that might be enough to help Trump win. But in several other swing states--Virginia, Ohio and Michigan--if the Democrats can reassemble the Obama coalition, Trump's new support is not enough to win.


[https://www.yahoo.com...]

It was an interesting report, and I think this is certainly a topic that the campaigns (and politics wonks) should be talking about. So, what are your thoughts? Comments? Reactions?

Trump may or may not be "growing the GOP", but the real question is, is our children learning? Furthermore, "politics wonks" may or may not be interested in this, the real question however, is, is our children learning? Also, have we misunderestimated Trump in all 57 states? And the most pressing question of the night is, is ketchup your favorite vegetable? Finally, will we ever uncover what the definition if is, is?
bsh1
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5/24/2016 4:01:48 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 3:59:56 AM, Objectivity wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:40:57 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Recent data seem to support the idea that Trump is exciting people who would normally vote Republican anyway; he is not bringing new voters or Democratic voters into the Republican fold. To quote from the article:

[N]ew data--voter files combined with field polling from these states collected by a Republican data analysis firm that worked for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's presidential campaign--lends more weight to the conclusion that Trump's candidacy is not game-changing, or particularly well-positioned for the general election.

[...]

[T]he data so far does indicate that Trump has not yet significantly grown the Republican Party. There are small numbers of new voters who came to the polls this year, and in one state--New Hampshire--that might be enough to help Trump win. But in several other swing states--Virginia, Ohio and Michigan--if the Democrats can reassemble the Obama coalition, Trump's new support is not enough to win.


[https://www.yahoo.com...]

It was an interesting report, and I think this is certainly a topic that the campaigns (and politics wonks) should be talking about. So, what are your thoughts? Comments? Reactions?

Trump may or may not be "growing the GOP", but the real question is, is our children learning? Furthermore, "politics wonks" may or may not be interested in this, the real question however, is, is our children learning? Also, have we misunderestimated Trump in all 57 states? And the most pressing question of the night is, is ketchup your favorite vegetable? Finally, will we ever uncover what the definition if is, is?

lol
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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Peepette
Posts: 1,242
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5/24/2016 4:14:59 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 3:59:56 AM, Objectivity wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:40:57 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Recent data seem to support the idea that Trump is exciting people who would normally vote Republican anyway; he is not bringing new voters or Democratic voters into the Republican fold. To quote from the article:

[N]ew data--voter files combined with field polling from these states collected by a Republican data analysis firm that worked for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's presidential campaign--lends more weight to the conclusion that Trump's candidacy is not game-changing, or particularly well-positioned for the general election.

[...]

[T]he data so far does indicate that Trump has not yet significantly grown the Republican Party. There are small numbers of new voters who came to the polls this year, and in one state--New Hampshire--that might be enough to help Trump win. But in several other swing states--Virginia, Ohio and Michigan--if the Democrats can reassemble the Obama coalition, Trump's new support is not enough to win.


[https://www.yahoo.com...]

It was an interesting report, and I think this is certainly a topic that the campaigns (and politics wonks) should be talking about. So, what are your thoughts? Comments? Reactions?

Trump may or may not be "growing the GOP", but the real question is, is our children learning? Furthermore, "politics wonks" may or may not be interested in this, the real question however, is, is our children learning? Also, have we misunderestimated Trump in all 57 states? And the most pressing question of the night is, is ketchup your favorite vegetable? Finally, will we ever uncover what the definition if is, is?

You wrapped it up well. ;}
imabench
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5/24/2016 4:16:27 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 2:40:57 AM, bsh1 wrote:

It was an interesting report, and I think this is certainly a topic that the campaigns (and politics wonks) should be talking about. So, what are your thoughts? Comments? Reactions?

I read somewhere that Trumps voterbase consists of Republicans and voters who historically didnt vote in the primaries, but routinely side with whoever the GOP nominee was in the general election since they are very conservative.... Meaning he hasnt expanded the base, just lured in those who usually wait til the general election to vote to hijack the primaries.

Whats interesting to me is that in exchange for getting the die-hard conservatives to back him in the primary, it is the now more moderate chunk of the GOP that has sat out the primaries and will show up in the general election.... Cruz and Trump have won all but one state, Kasich's Ohio, meaning that in the past where more moderate republicans always controlled the primary and the ultra-conservatives waited until the general election to pick a candidate, now the opposite is the case. The radical right have rammed their own candidate through the primaries, and the moderate republicans will only pop up in the general election to decide which pick is better for their interests.

Thats a huge problem for the Trump.... Trump needs to count on the moderate voters in the GOP base to turnout for Trump just to get the numbers they normally average in presidential elections, and then get more then that from truly centrist independents to be able to beat Hillary. But we can see that some moderate GOP voters will vote for Hillary before Trump, or at the very least not turn out to vote at all. If parts of Trumps own team wont come out to vote for him, and might even vote against him, then Trump is in deep sh*t heading into the general election

The only way for him to even have a chance right now is to pick an absolute slam dunk of a VP to convince moderate republicans and even independent swing voters to support him. God knows who that potential person could even be, let alone if Trump would pick them as his running mate.
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Peepette
Posts: 1,242
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5/24/2016 4:35:12 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 4:16:27 AM, imabench wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:40:57 AM, bsh1 wrote:

It was an interesting report, and I think this is certainly a topic that the campaigns (and politics wonks) should be talking about. So, what are your thoughts? Comments? Reactions?

I read somewhere that Trumps voterbase consists of Republicans and voters who historically didnt vote in the primaries, but routinely side with whoever the GOP nominee was in the general election since they are very conservative.... Meaning he hasnt expanded the base, just lured in those who usually wait til the general election to vote to hijack the primaries.

Whats interesting to me is that in exchange for getting the die-hard conservatives to back him in the primary, it is the now more moderate chunk of the GOP that has sat out the primaries and will show up in the general election.... Cruz and Trump have won all but one state, Kasich's Ohio, meaning that in the past where more moderate republicans always controlled the primary and the ultra-conservatives waited until the general election to pick a candidate, now the opposite is the case. The radical right have rammed their own candidate through the primaries, and the moderate republicans will only pop up in the general election to decide which pick is better for their interests.

Thats a huge problem for the Trump.... Trump needs to count on the moderate voters in the GOP base to turnout for Trump just to get the numbers they normally average in presidential elections, and then get more then that from truly centrist independents to be able to beat Hillary. But we can see that some moderate GOP voters will vote for Hillary before Trump, or at the very least not turn out to vote at all. If parts of Trumps own team wont come out to vote for him, and might even vote against him, then Trump is in deep sh*t heading into the general election

The only way for him to even have a chance right now is to pick an absolute slam dunk of a VP to convince moderate republicans and even independent swing voters to support him. God knows who that potential person could even be, let alone if Trump would pick them as his running mate.

Who with any real standing would agree to run with Trump without it being political suicide? He could agree to whomever the party picks for him. That might be smarter than him making the choice for himself. That way Trump garners more support from the party.
Skepsikyma
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5/24/2016 5:31:54 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 4:16:27 AM, imabench wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:40:57 AM, bsh1 wrote:

It was an interesting report, and I think this is certainly a topic that the campaigns (and politics wonks) should be talking about. So, what are your thoughts? Comments? Reactions?

I read somewhere that Trumps voterbase consists of Republicans and voters who historically didnt vote in the primaries, but routinely side with whoever the GOP nominee was in the general election since they are very conservative.... Meaning he hasnt expanded the base, just lured in those who usually wait til the general election to vote to hijack the primaries.

Whats interesting to me is that in exchange for getting the die-hard conservatives to back him in the primary, it is the now more moderate chunk of the GOP that has sat out the primaries and will show up in the general election.... Cruz and Trump have won all but one state, Kasich's Ohio, meaning that in the past where more moderate republicans always controlled the primary and the ultra-conservatives waited until the general election to pick a candidate, now the opposite is the case. The radical right have rammed their own candidate through the primaries, and the moderate republicans will only pop up in the general election to decide which pick is better for their interests.

Thats a huge problem for the Trump.... Trump needs to count on the moderate voters in the GOP base to turnout for Trump just to get the numbers they normally average in presidential elections, and then get more then that from truly centrist independents to be able to beat Hillary. But we can see that some moderate GOP voters will vote for Hillary before Trump, or at the very least not turn out to vote at all. If parts of Trumps own team wont come out to vote for him, and might even vote against him, then Trump is in deep sh*t heading into the general election

The only way for him to even have a chance right now is to pick an absolute slam dunk of a VP to convince moderate republicans and even independent swing voters to support him. God knows who that potential person could even be, let alone if Trump would pick them as his running mate.

I love how people say that the candidate who vociferously opposed the Iraq war, made a defense of welfare programs, defended planned parenthood, demurred on gay marriage, and supported trans bathroom rights during the republican primaries is a manifestation of the will of the 'far right'. Trump is absurdly liberal as far as the normal republican field goes. The far right are the ones who hate him; there's a reason that #NeverTrump coalesced around Cruz (the actual far right candidate in this election). The country club Republicans are more bewildered than anything, and their support has always been more valuable for the donations which they bring than for their votes anyway. If they have cold feet now, the debates between Hillary and Trump will remedy that by the time the general election rolls around.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
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Oromagi
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5/24/2016 8:57:00 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 2:40:57 AM, bsh1 wrote:

[https://www.yahoo.com...]

It was an interesting report, and I think this is certainly a topic that the campaigns (and politics wonks) should be talking about. So, what are your thoughts? Comments? Reactions?

I think it is an interesting report, mostly helping to explain Trump's rapid coalescence of traditional Republicans after Cruz bowed out (85-90% support). Although polls have been reasonably accurate throughout the primaries, polls can't predict the public's response to the general this summer. It looks to me like both parties are going to lean harder than ever on negative campaign tactics, which is more likely to fatigue than inspire newer voters. 91% of political campaigns are won by the better financed candidate and in this respect Hillary will probably dominate. It's one thing for Republicans to endorse the presumptive nominee, but it's clear that many traditional bases of power aren't going to throw a lot of muscle behind Trump- the Koch's are ambivalent, 4 of 5 living republican nominees are boycotting the convention and the fifth publicly despises Trump. That suggests tepid fundraising for Trump while traditional cash cows for the democrats are generally on board.

The majority of Bernie supporters are left-leaning independents who are traditionally more likely (88%) to support the eventual democratic nominee than right leaning independents vote for republican nominees. If Johnson wins the Libertarian ticket and manages to get invited to the debates ( generally poll 15% in 5 or more polls, right now he's getting a little under 10%) he could be positioned to pull significant numbers into his orbit, probably pulling more from right than the left.

The electorate is restless and there are plenty of scenarios that could re-align the map. English bookmakers make Hillary the odds on favorite @ 4:9, or about 70% chance win, which sounds about right for the time being.
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5/24/2016 12:00:18 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 4:16:27 AM, imabench wrote:
At 5/24/2016 2:40:57 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Whats interesting to me is that in exchange for getting the die-hard conservatives to back him in the primary, it is the now more moderate chunk of the GOP that has sat out the primaries and will show up in the general election.... Cruz and Trump have won all but one state, Kasich's Ohio

What about Minnesota?
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