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@ the "Trump will never be POTUS" people

Sam7411
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5/24/2016 10:11:29 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 10:00:31 PM, Romanii wrote:
http://blog.dilbert.com...

Thoughts?
Why can't Trump, would could be so easily dismantled by a competent candidate, face someone other than the corrupt Clinton or a squabbling Republican party?

Because the voting system is set out so that the most polarizing, not necessarily the most qualified, candidate is nominated
Romanii
Posts: 4,858
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5/24/2016 10:14:23 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 10:11:29 PM, Sam7411 wrote:
Why can't Trump, would could be so easily dismantled by a competent candidate, face someone other than the corrupt Clinton or a squabbling Republican party?
Who is a "competent candidate," in your mind?
Sam7411
Posts: 959
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5/24/2016 10:21:53 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 10:14:23 PM, Romanii wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:11:29 PM, Sam7411 wrote:
Why can't Trump, would could be so easily dismantled by a competent candidate, face someone other than the corrupt Clinton or a squabbling Republican party?
Who is a "competent candidate," in your mind?

Well, it's hard to say, but someone with the charisma/focus to beat Trump, something that most of not all of the other candidates lacked.

Here are some previous candidate that under the right circumstances...
John McCain
Mitt Romney (if he had just loosened up a bit, he was like a stale potato chip, seeing him in talk shows after coming at against Trump, he seemed objectively to be a genuinely engaging person)
Marco Rubio (if the other Republican candidates not tried to tear him apart Jeb!, and he was more experienced)
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 10:00:31 PM, Romanii wrote:
http://blog.dilbert.com...

Thoughts?

Show me the map:

http://www.270towin.com...

How does he flip any of these swing states:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Nevada
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

Knowing Ohio and Florida are must-win and he still needs another 17 electoral votes to get to 270.
someloser
Posts: 1,377
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5/24/2016 10:59:01 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 10:21:53 PM, Sam7411 wrote:
Here are some previous candidate that under the right circumstances...
Such as a blue moon? Trump being struck by lightning?

Mitt Romney
"47%"

Marco Rubio (if the other Republican candidates not tried to tear him apart Jeb!, and he was more experienced)
The antithesis of competent. Not even the coalition with Cruz could help him.

Little Rubio was the Republican strawman Trump came to beat up. except he was for real.
Ego sum qui sum. Deus lo vult.

"America is ungovernable; those who served the revolution have plowed the sea." - Simon Bolivar

"A healthy nation is as unconscious of its nationality as a healthy man of his bones. But if you break a nation's nationality it will think of nothing else but getting it set again." - George Bernard Shaw
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:00:31 PM, Romanii wrote:
http://blog.dilbert.com...

Thoughts?

Show me the map:

http://www.270towin.com...

How does he flip any of these swing states:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Nevada
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

Knowing Ohio and Florida are must-win and he still needs another 17 electoral votes to get to 270.

The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,306
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5/24/2016 11:58:46 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
Clinton is planning to appear on Ellen with the all-female cast of the new Ghostbusters movie. That"s what overplaying the woman card looks like.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,306
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5/24/2016 11:59:39 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
Trump"s insults are now understood to be more than random hate. They are weapons-grade persuasion that have been engineered and then A-B tested at rallies. The "Crooked Hillary" harpoon is already doing its damage. If history is our guide, the nickname will bleed her out before November.
Romanii
Posts: 4,858
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5/25/2016 12:00:06 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
How does he flip any of these swing states:

By gradually convincing people to vote for him over the next 5-6 months, lmao.
As the campaign process goes on, it will become increasingly obvious that (1) Donald Trump not as horrible as Hillary Clinton and the media make him out to be, and (2) Hillary Clinton will do absolutely nothing for the "minorities and women" she pretends to adore. That's what the cited blogpost was all about... there's no point in attempting to extrapolate electoral outcomes on the basis of current polling results. Polls change. They have been changing constantly since Day One of Trump's campaign. I find it much more interesting (and accurate) to engage in qualitative analysis of the underlying socio-cultural forces that are influencing voting behaviors.
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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5/25/2016 12:01:25 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:00:31 PM, Romanii wrote:
http://blog.dilbert.com...

Thoughts?

Show me the map:

http://www.270towin.com...

How does he flip any of these swing states:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Nevada
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

Knowing Ohio and Florida are must-win and he still needs another 17 electoral votes to get to 270.

The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

You don't have anything intelligent to say, you even agree with his policies when I show you how liberal they are. You just tend to go into denial and say you can't trust he backs those policies when he has written books twenty years ago consistently spouting the same policy positions I mention.

If ypu agree with that guy on nearly everything he says such as his support for raising the minimum wage, pro choice, pro union, pro single payer healthcare and less aggressive foreign policy, then why do you continue to blaspheme him? Is this just blind party loyalty merely because he has an R in front of his name? My gueas is if Ted Cruz won the Democratic Nomination, you'd loudly support him
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,306
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5/25/2016 12:01:45 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:00:06 AM, Romanii wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
How does he flip any of these swing states:

By gradually convincing people to vote for him over the next 5-6 months, lmao.
As the campaign process goes on, it will become increasingly obvious that (1) Donald Trump not as horrible as Hillary Clinton and the media make him out to be, and (2) Hillary Clinton will do absolutely nothing for the "minorities and women" she pretends to adore. That's what the cited blogpost was all about... there's no point in attempting to extrapolate electoral outcomes on the basis of current polling results. Polls change. They have been changing constantly since Day One of Trump's campaign. I find it much more interesting (and accurate) to engage in qualitative analysis of the underlying socio-cultural forces that are influencing voting behaviors.

http://theweek.com...
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,306
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5/25/2016 12:07:54 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:00:06 AM, Romanii wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
How does he flip any of these swing states:

By gradually convincing people to vote for him over the next 5-6 months, lmao.
As the campaign process goes on, it will become increasingly obvious that (1) Donald Trump not as horrible as Hillary Clinton and the media make him out to be, and (2) Hillary Clinton will do absolutely nothing for the "minorities and women" she pretends to adore. That's what the cited blogpost was all about... there's no point in attempting to extrapolate electoral outcomes on the basis of current polling results. Polls change. They have been changing constantly since Day One of Trump's campaign. I find it much more interesting (and accurate) to engage in qualitative analysis of the underlying socio-cultural forces that are influencing voting behaviors.

A new meaning for "Political Hack"
Romanii
Posts: 4,858
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5/25/2016 12:18:26 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

Lmao, keep telling yourself that. Don't bother looking at any of the evidence to the contrary. Like the fact that Clinton now has higher unfavorability ratings than Trump does -- so much for women and Latinos being irrevocably "offended" by his comments (which, btw, couldn't possibly be perceived as insulting to either group unless HuffPo and Clinton's ads are your only sources of news)
Romanii
Posts: 4,858
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5/25/2016 12:21:13 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
Speaking of which, Huffington Post has completely discredited itself as a reliable source of news with its ridiculous anti-Trump disclaimer at the bottom of every Trump-related article. It's like the liberal version of Drudge Report at this point.
Romanii
Posts: 4,858
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5/25/2016 12:23:35 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:07:54 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
A new meaning for "Political Hack"
https://www.youtube.com...

LOL. That coughing was honestly more pleasant to listen to than the verbal bullsh!t she typically spews out.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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5/25/2016 12:48:15 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:18:26 AM, Romanii wrote:
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

Lmao, keep telling yourself that. Don't bother looking at any of the evidence to the contrary. Like the fact that Clinton now has higher unfavorability ratings than Trump does -- so much for women and Latinos being irrevocably "offended" by his comments (which, btw, couldn't possibly be perceived as insulting to either group unless HuffPo and Clinton's ads are your only sources of news)

I will put money on it. Name the stakes.
TBR
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5/25/2016 12:51:07 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:01:25 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:00:31 PM, Romanii wrote:
http://blog.dilbert.com...

Thoughts?

Show me the map:

http://www.270towin.com...

How does he flip any of these swing states:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Nevada
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

Knowing Ohio and Florida are must-win and he still needs another 17 electoral votes to get to 270.

The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

You don't have anything intelligent to say, you even agree with his policies when I show you how liberal they are. You just tend to go into denial and say you can't trust he backs those policies when he has written books twenty years ago consistently spouting the same policy positions I mention.

If ypu agree with that guy on nearly everything he says such as his support for raising the minimum wage, pro choice, pro union, pro single payer healthcare and less aggressive foreign policy, then why do you continue to blaspheme him? Is this just blind party loyalty merely because he has an R in front of his name? My gueas is if Ted Cruz won the Democratic Nomination, you'd loudly support him

Agree with what? Trump has virtually no position he is willing to take, other than "hate everyone but Americans".
Sam7411
Posts: 959
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5/25/2016 12:51:28 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:23:35 AM, Romanii wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:07:54 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
A new meaning for "Political Hack"
https://www.youtube.com...
XD

LOL. That coughing was honestly more pleasant to listen to than the verbal bullsh!t she typically spews out.
Sam7411
Posts: 959
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5/25/2016 12:52:00 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:51:07 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:01:25 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:00:31 PM, Romanii wrote:
http://blog.dilbert.com...

Thoughts?

Show me the map:

http://www.270towin.com...

How does he flip any of these swing states:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Nevada
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

Knowing Ohio and Florida are must-win and he still needs another 17 electoral votes to get to 270.

The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

You don't have anything intelligent to say, you even agree with his policies when I show you how liberal they are. You just tend to go into denial and say you can't trust he backs those policies when he has written books twenty years ago consistently spouting the same policy positions I mention.

If ypu agree with that guy on nearly everything he says such as his support for raising the minimum wage, pro choice, pro union, pro single payer healthcare and less aggressive foreign policy, then why do you continue to blaspheme him? Is this just blind party loyalty merely because he has an R in front of his name? My gueas is if Ted Cruz won the Democratic Nomination, you'd loudly support him

Agree with what? Trump has virtually no position he is willing to take, other than "hate everyone but Americans".
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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5/25/2016 12:53:21 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:01:25 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:00:31 PM, Romanii wrote:
http://blog.dilbert.com...

Thoughts?

Show me the map:

http://www.270towin.com...

How does he flip any of these swing states:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Nevada
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

Knowing Ohio and Florida are must-win and he still needs another 17 electoral votes to get to 270.

The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

You don't have anything intelligent to say, you even agree with his policies when I show you how liberal they are. You just tend to go into denial and say you can't trust he backs those policies when he has written books twenty years ago consistently spouting the same policy positions I mention.

If ypu agree with that guy on nearly everything he says such as his support for raising the minimum wage, pro choice, pro union, pro single payer healthcare and less aggressive foreign policy, then why do you continue to blaspheme him? Is this just blind party loyalty merely because he has an R in front of his name? My gueas is if Ted Cruz won the Democratic Nomination, you'd loudly support him

http://i1173.photobucket.com...
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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5/25/2016 12:59:15 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:51:07 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:01:25 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:00:31 PM, Romanii wrote:
http://blog.dilbert.com...

Thoughts?

Show me the map:

http://www.270towin.com...

How does he flip any of these swing states:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Nevada
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

Knowing Ohio and Florida are must-win and he still needs another 17 electoral votes to get to 270.

The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

You don't have anything intelligent to say, you even agree with his policies when I show you how liberal they are. You just tend to go into denial and say you can't trust he backs those policies when he has written books twenty years ago consistently spouting the same policy positions I mention.

If ypu agree with that guy on nearly everything he says such as his support for raising the minimum wage, pro choice, pro union, pro single payer healthcare and less aggressive foreign policy, then why do you continue to blaspheme him? Is this just blind party loyalty merely because he has an R in front of his name? My gueas is if Ted Cruz won the Democratic Nomination, you'd loudly support him

Agree with what? Trump has virtually no position he is willing to take, other than "hate everyone but Americans".

See just blind stupid hate. Nothing indicates he hates anyone, unless you're stupid and think he hates Mexicans because he is putting up a border wall, when he is also making it easier to legally immigrate to the United States.

Is making it easier for Mexicans to come to the United States legally hateful?

His positions are pretty clear and you mostly agree with them, but lack the intelligence to get past the fact that an R is in fronr of his name.
Romanii
Posts: 4,858
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5/25/2016 12:59:31 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:48:15 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:18:26 AM, Romanii wrote:
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

Lmao, keep telling yourself that. Don't bother looking at any of the evidence to the contrary. Like the fact that Clinton now has higher unfavorability ratings than Trump does -- so much for women and Latinos being irrevocably "offended" by his comments (which, btw, couldn't possibly be perceived as insulting to either group unless HuffPo and Clinton's ads are your only sources of news)

I will put money on it. Name the stakes.

Nah. Even if I had enough money to bet, I probably wouldn't.
I just think it's moronic to be so sure of yourself, especially with the overly-simplistic logic you're using.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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5/25/2016 1:06:28 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:59:31 AM, Romanii wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:48:15 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:18:26 AM, Romanii wrote:
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

Lmao, keep telling yourself that. Don't bother looking at any of the evidence to the contrary. Like the fact that Clinton now has higher unfavorability ratings than Trump does -- so much for women and Latinos being irrevocably "offended" by his comments (which, btw, couldn't possibly be perceived as insulting to either group unless HuffPo and Clinton's ads are your only sources of news)

I will put money on it. Name the stakes.

Nah. Even if I had enough money to bet, I probably wouldn't.
I just think it's moronic to be so sure of yourself, especially with the overly-simplistic logic you're using.

The logic I am using is the same logic that has been running presidential campaigns for... well forever! 1) Trump and the idiotic supporters have done little to look at the EC map. 2) Trump spend his entire primary season pissing-off BETTER than half the people. So.... That is how you loose. And how you loose to such a sh1t candidate like Clinton.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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5/25/2016 1:07:37 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:59:15 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:51:07 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:01:25 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:00:31 PM, Romanii wrote:
http://blog.dilbert.com...

Thoughts?

Show me the map:

http://www.270towin.com...

How does he flip any of these swing states:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Nevada
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

Knowing Ohio and Florida are must-win and he still needs another 17 electoral votes to get to 270.

The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

You don't have anything intelligent to say, you even agree with his policies when I show you how liberal they are. You just tend to go into denial and say you can't trust he backs those policies when he has written books twenty years ago consistently spouting the same policy positions I mention.

If ypu agree with that guy on nearly everything he says such as his support for raising the minimum wage, pro choice, pro union, pro single payer healthcare and less aggressive foreign policy, then why do you continue to blaspheme him? Is this just blind party loyalty merely because he has an R in front of his name? My gueas is if Ted Cruz won the Democratic Nomination, you'd loudly support him

Agree with what? Trump has virtually no position he is willing to take, other than "hate everyone but Americans".

See just blind stupid hate. Nothing indicates he hates anyone, unless you're stupid and think he hates Mexicans because he is putting up a border wall, when he is also making it easier to legally immigrate to the United States.

Is making it easier for Mexicans to come to the United States legally hateful?

His positions are pretty clear and you mostly agree with them, but lack the intelligence to get past the fact that an R is in fronr of his name.

Like what? Tell me. Tell me the position he takes I agree with.
Sam7411
Posts: 959
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5/25/2016 1:12:45 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 1:07:37 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:59:15 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:51:07 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:01:25 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:00:31 PM, Romanii wrote:
http://blog.dilbert.com...

Thoughts?

Show me the map:

http://www.270towin.com...

How does he flip any of these swing states:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Nevada
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

Knowing Ohio and Florida are must-win and he still needs another 17 electoral votes to get to 270.

The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

You don't have anything intelligent to say, you even agree with his policies when I show you how liberal they are. You just tend to go into denial and say you can't trust he backs those policies when he has written books twenty years ago consistently spouting the same policy positions I mention.

If ypu agree with that guy on nearly everything he says such as his support for raising the minimum wage, pro choice, pro union, pro single payer healthcare and less aggressive foreign policy, then why do you continue to blaspheme him? Is this just blind party loyalty merely because he has an R in front of his name? My gueas is if Ted Cruz won the Democratic Nomination, you'd loudly support him

Agree with what? Trump has virtually no position he is willing to take, other than "hate everyone but Americans".

See just blind stupid hate. Nothing indicates he hates anyone, unless you're stupid and think he hates Mexicans because he is putting up a border wall, when he is also making it easier to legally immigrate to the United States.

Is making it easier for Mexicans to come to the United States legally hateful?

His positions are pretty clear and you mostly agree with them, but lack the intelligence to get past the fact that an R is in fronr of his name.

Like what? Tell me. Tell me the position he takes I agree with.

Probably marriage for homosexuals
Romanii
Posts: 4,858
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5/25/2016 1:15:12 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 1:06:28 AM, TBR wrote:

The logic I am using is the same logic that has been running presidential campaigns for... well forever! 1) Trump and the idiotic supporters have done little to look at the EC map. 2) Trump spend his entire primary season pissing-off BETTER than half the people. So.... That is how you loose. And how you loose to such a sh1t candidate like Clinton.

Like I said... overly simplistic. Not only are you over-estimating how "offended" people actually are by Trump's comments, but you're also assuming the faulty premise that nobody will ever vote for a candidate who has offended them before. And it also ignores the fact that, according to recent polls, Hillary has "pissed off" more people than Trump has -- she just hasn't done it as explicitly.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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5/25/2016 1:15:56 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 12:00:06 AM, Romanii wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
How does he flip any of these swing states:

By gradually convincing people to vote for him over the next 5-6 months, lmao.

That's a pretty terrible answer. I'm asking you to give me a map where Trump wins. It's not that hard. I'll make a few for you.

http://www.270towin.com...

In this scenario Trump wins 275-263, carrying all the Romney states plus the four most Republican remaining Cook PVI states: Florida (R+2), Ohio (R+1), Virginia (EVEN), and Colorado (D+1). I think Trump can actually win Ohio without a ton of difficulty and can be competitive in Florida . The problem with this scenario is Trump polls terribly among groups he needs to win these Colorado, Virginia, and Florida: minorities (vital to win Florida and Virginia) hate him and suburbanites (vital to win Virginia and Colorado) are either indifferent or directly opposed to immigration populism and protectionism. How is he going to convince minority voters to vote for him, and how is he going to appeal to suburbanites, who hate his core message?

http://www.270towin.com...

In this scenario Trump wins 274-264, carrying Florida and Ohio but losing Virginia. To make up for his likely loss in Virginia, he wins Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa. The problem with this scenario is that Colorado is very difficult for him to win due to the reasons above Iowa and Nevada are swingy, but not necessarily receptive to his message: Iowa isn't rust belt, and Nevada has a ton of minorities plus psuedo-libertarian entrepreneurs who directly oppose protectionism because it hurts them.

http://www.270towin.com...

In this scenario Trump wins 273-265, carrying Ohio and Florida while also winning Pennsylvania. The problem with this scenario is twofold: first, while Pennsylvania is a swing state, it doesn't have a ton of swing voters. It's not elastic. (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...)

Republicans have been gaining round for decades there - they actually won the Pittsburgh metro area in 2012. Western and central PA are major Republican areas. Democrats have maintained an advantage by getting stronger and stronger in Philadelphia and its suburbs, their only strong area in the state aside from Pittsburgh proper and Scranton. They have held Pennsylvania by winning 85% in Philadelphia and 60% in the suburbs. Democrats have, in my opinion, almost 'maxed out' there - they can't do much better. But for Republicans to win, they need to make up 330,000 votes, and to do that they need to break the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia - maybe win the suburbs and hold Dems to 70% in Philly. Trump is the worst candidate to do this - he performs horribly among suburban and urban voters. There just aren't enough voters in western PA to make up for Philadelphia.

Keep in mind with these maps I assume Trump wins every state Romney wins, which is by no means a given. Polls have shown close races in North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, and Arizona.

As the campaign process goes on, it will become increasingly obvious that (1) Donald Trump not as horrible as Hillary Clinton and the media make him out to be, and (2) Hillary Clinton will do absolutely nothing for the "minorities and women" she pretends to adore. That's what the cited blogpost was all about... there's no point in attempting to extrapolate electoral outcomes on the basis of current polling results. Polls change. They have been changing constantly since Day One of Trump's campaign. I find it much more interesting (and accurate) to engage in qualitative analysis of the underlying socio-cultural forces that are influencing voting behaviors.

That's nice to be abstract but give me something real. How is he going to swing minorities and suburban voters?
TBR
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5/25/2016 1:31:01 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 1:15:12 AM, Romanii wrote:
At 5/25/2016 1:06:28 AM, TBR wrote:

The logic I am using is the same logic that has been running presidential campaigns for... well forever! 1) Trump and the idiotic supporters have done little to look at the EC map. 2) Trump spend his entire primary season pissing-off BETTER than half the people. So.... That is how you loose. And how you loose to such a sh1t candidate like Clinton.

Like I said... overly simplistic. Not only are you over-estimating how "offended" people actually are by Trump's comments, but you're also assuming the faulty premise that nobody will ever vote for a candidate who has offended them before. And it also ignores the fact that, according to recent polls, Hillary has "pissed off" more people than Trump has -- she just hasn't done it as explicitly.

Your are being simplistic. Are you now speaking for everyone who previously expressed outrage at Trump, and saying "all cool" for them at this point?

People need a REASON to vote for someone, and Trump is giving women and minorities NO reasons to vote for them. The white men he has courted will get out to vote for him, but you can't win a general with that vertical demographic. How much more clear do you need it?
TBR
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5/25/2016 1:33:47 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/25/2016 1:12:45 AM, Sam7411 wrote:
At 5/25/2016 1:07:37 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:59:15 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:51:07 AM, TBR wrote:
At 5/25/2016 12:01:25 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 5/24/2016 11:42:55 PM, TBR wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:56:32 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/24/2016 10:00:31 PM, Romanii wrote:
http://blog.dilbert.com...

Thoughts?

Show me the map:

http://www.270towin.com...

How does he flip any of these swing states:
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Nevada
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

Knowing Ohio and Florida are must-win and he still needs another 17 electoral votes to get to 270.

The Trump crowd is just about the most uninformed base of the voter base. They have no idea (inside the campaign or outside) that they have to win a general. The blinders are on, and they will loose to a highly beatable candidate - Clinton.

You don't get to be president by pissing on better than 50% of the electorate.

You don't have anything intelligent to say, you even agree with his policies when I show you how liberal they are. You just tend to go into denial and say you can't trust he backs those policies when he has written books twenty years ago consistently spouting the same policy positions I mention.

If ypu agree with that guy on nearly everything he says such as his support for raising the minimum wage, pro choice, pro union, pro single payer healthcare and less aggressive foreign policy, then why do you continue to blaspheme him? Is this just blind party loyalty merely because he has an R in front of his name? My gueas is if Ted Cruz won the Democratic Nomination, you'd loudly support him

Agree with what? Trump has virtually no position he is willing to take, other than "hate everyone but Americans".

See just blind stupid hate. Nothing indicates he hates anyone, unless you're stupid and think he hates Mexicans because he is putting up a border wall, when he is also making it easier to legally immigrate to the United States.

Is making it easier for Mexicans to come to the United States legally hateful?

His positions are pretty clear and you mostly agree with them, but lack the intelligence to get past the fact that an R is in fronr of his name.

Like what? Tell me. Tell me the position he takes I agree with.

Probably marriage for homosexuals

You mean an issue that has been settled by the SCOTUS, and the president has no control over? That issue? Further, he supported unions, saying he was a "traditional guy". So, no, No I don't agree with him, and I don't give a rats a$$ what he says about it anyway.