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The Second Cold War

PetersSmith
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6/10/2016 7:30:00 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
Cold War II. Something out of alt-history, but it is very possible that this "new Cold War" exists and is getting more prevalent. Recently, Russia's Foreign Ministry warns of "retaliatory measures" over the entry of the United States Navy destroyer, USS Porter, in the Black Sea. The USS Porter arrived in the Black Sea port of Varna, Bulgaria, earlier this week for what the U.S. Navy called a routine deployment (http://www.usatoday.com...).

This of course isn't the first "high-tension" incident. Everyone is of course aware of the Ukraine Crisis and the "unlawful" annexation of Crimea, which resulted in Russia being kicked out of the G-8. People accuse Putin of being a despot, and the US has been increasingly angry with his actions during his terms. Three weeks into the Russian campaign in Syria, on 20 October 2015, Russian president Vladimir Putin met Bashar Assad in Moscow to discuss their joint military campaign and a future political settlement in Syria, according to the Kremlin report of the event. The meeting provoked a sharp condemnation from the White House (http://www.bbc.com...).

In January 2016, senior UK government officials were reported to have registered their growing fears that "a new cold war" was now unfolding in Europe: "It really is a new Cold War out there. Right across the EU we are seeing alarming evidence of Russian efforts to unpick the fabric of European unity on a whole range of vital strategic issues." (http://www.telegraph.co.uk...). Jeremy Shapiro, a senior fellow in the Brookings Institution, believed the unfolding situation in and around Syria was "a very, very familiar proxy war cycle from the bad old days of the Cold War" (http://www.vox.com...). In February 2016, at the Munich Security Conference, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO and Russia were "not in a cold-war situation but also not in the partnership that we established at the end of the Cold War," (http://www.bbc.com...) while Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, speaking of what he called NATO's "unfriendly and opaque" policy with regard to Russia, said: "One could go as far as to say that we have slid back to a new Cold War." (http://edition.cnn.com...).

Alternatively, a Yale University professor David Gelernter, a Firstpost editor, and South Asia Analysis Group refer the term to possible tensions between the United States and China. Talk of a new cold war between the US (alongside its allies) and China has grown particularly with increased Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea (http://www.eurasiareview.com... and http://www.firstpost.com...).

So, do you think that "Cold War 2.0" is a possible hypothetical in the future, or do you think it is a very real renewed state of political and military tension between the Western World, with one bloc typically being led by Russia? Do you think things are only going to get worse, considering Russia's recent actions? Or do you think tensions are going to begin relieving? Do you think there are two concurrent Cold Wars between the current power-blocs (China, Russia, and the US)? OR do you think this "renewed Cold War" is between China and the US? What do you think is going to be the next political crisis? Discuss.
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Vox_Veritas
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6/10/2016 7:58:02 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
I used to buy all the "Cold War II" hype, but I don't really think this is worthy of that title. This isn't anywhere near the scale of the original Cold War.
This isn't even the first incident, honestly. In 2008 Georgia caused a flare-up of tensions between NATO and Russia, but then people just kind of forgot about it after some time.
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Vox_Veritas
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6/10/2016 8:00:08 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
Furthermore, the ideological bent of the original Cold War is almost completely missing here. We're back to the era of non-ideological international rivalries between great powers, the likes of which existed before WW1.
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Greyparrot
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6/10/2016 8:06:26 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/10/2016 8:00:08 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Furthermore, the ideological bent of the original Cold War is almost completely missing here. We're back to the era of non-ideological international rivalries between great powers, the likes of which existed before WW1.

The COLD WAR I was overhyped.

This one is doubly so. Let the other nations know the folly and expense of trying to maintain a global empire.
UtherPenguin
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6/11/2016 3:29:13 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/10/2016 8:06:26 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 6/10/2016 8:00:08 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Furthermore, the ideological bent of the original Cold War is almost completely missing here. We're back to the era of non-ideological international rivalries between great powers, the likes of which existed before WW1.

The COLD WAR I was overhyped.

This one is doubly so. Let the other nations know the folly and expense of trying to maintain a global empire.

#BelievetheHype
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triangle.128k
Posts: 3,638
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6/11/2016 5:04:25 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At the moment I am too lazy to write a full response, but I highly doubt a 2nd Cold War will happen soon. China and USA would never break their economic ties over minor diplomatic tensions, and Russia would easily get killed by USA and Europe.
triangle.128k
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6/11/2016 5:04:43 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/10/2016 7:58:02 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I used to buy all the "Cold War II" hype, but I don't really think this is worthy of that title. This isn't anywhere near the scale of the original Cold War.
This isn't even the first incident, honestly. In 2008 Georgia caused a flare-up of tensions between NATO and Russia, but then people just kind of forgot about it after some time.

+1
Vox_Veritas
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6/11/2016 5:10:02 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
I really do think that if some kind of settlement could be reached in Ukraine, things would return to normal for NATO and Russia until some other crisis emerged 5 or so years later.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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PetersSmith
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6/11/2016 7:07:51 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
Bump?
Empress of DDO (also Poll and Forum "Maintenance" Moderator)

"The two most important days in your life is the day you were born, and the day you find out why."
~Mark Twain

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"Don't believe everything you read on the internet just because there's a picture with a quote next to it."
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bballcrook21
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6/11/2016 7:18:18 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
We are already in a quasi-state of tension between the U.S./NATO and Russia because of Crimea, but there's no chance that we will have a second Cold War with missiles pointed at each other and fighting proxy wars all around the world. It's never going to escalate to such a situation unless either side does something drastic.
If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand. - Friedman

Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. -Friedman

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Axonly
Posts: 1,802
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6/12/2016 6:07:46 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/11/2016 7:18:18 PM, bballcrook21 wrote:
We are already in a quasi-state of tension between the U.S./NATO and Russia because of Crimea, but there's no chance that we will have a second Cold War with missiles pointed at each other and fighting proxy wars all around the world. It's never going to escalate to such a situation unless either side does something drastic.

What sort of "Drastic" event do you think could do this?
Meh!
bballcrook21
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6/12/2016 4:35:34 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/12/2016 6:07:46 AM, Axonly wrote:
At 6/11/2016 7:18:18 PM, bballcrook21 wrote:
We are already in a quasi-state of tension between the U.S./NATO and Russia because of Crimea, but there's no chance that we will have a second Cold War with missiles pointed at each other and fighting proxy wars all around the world. It's never going to escalate to such a situation unless either side does something drastic.

What sort of "Drastic" event do you think could do this?

A proxy war, terrorism that gets blamed on either country, etc.
If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand. - Friedman

Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. -Friedman

Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program. - Friedman

Society will never be free until the last Democrat is strangled with the entrails of the last Communist.
tejretics
Posts: 6,083
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6/13/2016 6:51:25 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/10/2016 8:06:26 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 6/10/2016 8:00:08 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Furthermore, the ideological bent of the original Cold War is almost completely missing here. We're back to the era of non-ideological international rivalries between great powers, the likes of which existed before WW1.

The COLD WAR I was overhyped.

This one is doubly so. Let the other nations know the folly and expense of trying to maintain a global empire.

^This
"Where justice is denied, where poverty is enforced, where ignorance prevails, and where any one class is made to feel that society is an organized conspiracy to oppress, rob and degrade them, neither persons nor property will be safe." - Frederick Douglass