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Trump is changing the map

TN05
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6/10/2016 10:21:26 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
New poll out shows him down seven in Kansas.

http://bit.ly...

Kansas has not voted for a Democrat since 1964.
thett3
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6/11/2016 12:51:53 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
This poll was done by Zogby, which holds the dubious title of the worst pollster in the world: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

TN05, when are you going to stop being a sore loser?
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#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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6/11/2016 1:12:02 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
Do you also believe that sh1tty poll that had Trump up two in Oregon, or are you just cherry picking bad polls because you're sad that nobody voted for outsourcing and wars for Israel
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Ramshutu
Posts: 4,063
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6/11/2016 1:22:16 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 12:51:53 AM, thett3 wrote:
This poll was done by Zogby, which holds the dubious title of the worst pollster in the world: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

TN05, when are you going to stop being a sore loser?

... in 2009; when they got Obamas approval record 9 points lower than the average.

But in 2012; they obviously did something right, because their forecast was +0.1% republican vs actual results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

I don't necessarily disagree with you on the validity of the poll, but don't fall foul of the "polls are inaccurate" when you're down, and "polls are accurate" when you're ahead.
thett3
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6/11/2016 1:29:28 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 1:22:16 AM, Ramshutu wrote:
At 6/11/2016 12:51:53 AM, thett3 wrote:
This poll was done by Zogby, which holds the dubious title of the worst pollster in the world: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

TN05, when are you going to stop being a sore loser?

... in 2009; when they got Obamas approval record 9 points lower than the average.

But in 2012; they obviously did something right, because their forecast was +0.1% republican vs actual results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

I don't necessarily disagree with you on the validity of the poll, but don't fall foul of the "polls are inaccurate" when you're down, and "polls are accurate" when you're ahead.

Okay, then this loss is offset by Trump winning in Oregon: http://cloutpolitical.com...

There is literally a 0% chance that Hillary Clinton will win Kansas, and TN05 knows it...he's just trying to make Trump look bad because nobody likes his ideology
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Ramshutu
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6/11/2016 1:51:36 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 1:29:28 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:22:16 AM, Ramshutu wrote:
At 6/11/2016 12:51:53 AM, thett3 wrote:
This poll was done by Zogby, which holds the dubious title of the worst pollster in the world: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

TN05, when are you going to stop being a sore loser?

... in 2009; when they got Obamas approval record 9 points lower than the average.

But in 2012; they obviously did something right, because their forecast was +0.1% republican vs actual results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

I don't necessarily disagree with you on the validity of the poll, but don't fall foul of the "polls are inaccurate" when you're down, and "polls are accurate" when you're ahead.

Okay, then this loss is offset by Trump winning in Oregon: http://cloutpolitical.com...

There is literally a 0% chance that Hillary Clinton will win Kansas, and TN05 knows it...he's just trying to make Trump look bad because nobody likes his ideology

And I'm sure you're making your own statements based on an emotional investment on trump, and have a need to self validate.

Clinton isn't going to win Kansas; and Trump isn't going to win Oregon; and one poll can be interesting, though when preceded by another poll four days earlier that is different by 16 points tells you something else may be up. Repeated polling can be indicative, but this far out, with one candidate confirmed and the other not, isn't always indicative.
TN05
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6/11/2016 2:52:08 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 1:12:02 AM, thett3 wrote:
Do you also believe that sh1tty poll that had Trump up two in Oregon, or are you just cherry picking bad polls because you're sad that nobody voted for outsourcing and wars for Israel

I think it's quite possible Trump has 44% of the vote in Oregon. It has the most conservatives of any state... There are just a lot more liberals. I'd expect Clinton to win by between for and ten, points as per usual, barring Sanders supporters sitting out entirely.

Trump doing poorly in Kansas is not surprising. Like in Utah, the electorate isn't invested in white racial identity politics. Kansas is heavily Republican, but there are a ton of moderates. I don't expect him to lose but the fact we are even discussing it concerns you a bit, no?
bhakun
Posts: 231
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6/11/2016 3:14:58 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 2:52:08 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:12:02 AM, thett3 wrote:
Do you also believe that sh1tty poll that had Trump up two in Oregon, or are you just cherry picking bad polls because you're sad that nobody voted for outsourcing and wars for Israel

It has the most conservatives of any state... There are just a lot more liberals.
Could you explain? You mean there are just less moderates in Oregon?
"We must rapidly begin the shift from a "thing-oriented" society to a "person-oriented" society. When machines and computers, profit motives and property rights are considered more important than people, the giant triplets of racism, materialism, and militarism are incapable of being conquered." -MLK Jr
1harderthanyouthink
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6/11/2016 3:19:59 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 1:12:02 AM, thett3 wrote:
Do you also believe that sh1tty poll that had Trump up two in Oregon, or are you just cherry picking bad polls because you're sad that nobody voted for outsourcing and wars for Israel

She would be in serious danger in potentially even Oregon with how many Bernie supporters are flocking to Stein.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
thett3
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6/11/2016 3:20:17 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 2:52:08 AM, TN05 wrote:
I don't expect him to lose but the fact we are even discussing it concerns you a bit, no?

Not even slightly. It's Zogby...which means that the poll is literally meaningless.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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6/11/2016 3:21:32 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 3:19:59 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:12:02 AM, thett3 wrote:
Do you also believe that sh1tty poll that had Trump up two in Oregon, or are you just cherry picking bad polls because you're sad that nobody voted for outsourcing and wars for Israel

She would be in serious danger in potentially even Oregon with how many Bernie supporters are flocking to Stein.

Maybe but I seriously doubt that either Johnson or Stein will get over 1% of the vote despite the hype. Pretty much everyone votes strategically
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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6/11/2016 3:23:15 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 3:21:32 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 3:19:59 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:12:02 AM, thett3 wrote:
Do you also believe that sh1tty poll that had Trump up two in Oregon, or are you just cherry picking bad polls because you're sad that nobody voted for outsourcing and wars for Israel

She would be in serious danger in potentially even Oregon with how many Bernie supporters are flocking to Stein.

Maybe but I seriously doubt that either Johnson or Stein will get over 1% of the vote despite the hype. Pretty much everyone votes strategically

Stein got 1.1% in Oregon in 2012. She will only grow there this year - especially if anti-Trump Bernie supporters go bu the logic that it isn't a swing state, so it won't matter.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
TN05
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6/11/2016 3:27:07 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 3:14:58 AM, bhakun wrote:
At 6/11/2016 2:52:08 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:12:02 AM, thett3 wrote:
Do you also believe that sh1tty poll that had Trump up two in Oregon, or are you just cherry picking bad polls because you're sad that nobody voted for outsourcing and wars for Israel

It has the most conservatives of any state... There are just a lot more liberals.
Could you explain? You mean there are just less moderates in Oregon?

Not only that, but the conservatives are extremely conservative and the liberals are extremely liberal. (http://fivethirtyeight.com...) In 2008 an ultraconservative third party got 5% in the Senate, knocking off a fairly popular moderate Republican (Gordon Smith), and Bush almost won Oregon in 2000 because Nader got 5%.
TN05
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6/11/2016 3:33:45 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 3:19:59 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:12:02 AM, thett3 wrote:
Do you also believe that sh1tty poll that had Trump up two in Oregon, or are you just cherry picking bad polls because you're sad that nobody voted for outsourcing and wars for Israel

She would be in serious danger in potentially even Oregon with how many Bernie supporters are flocking to Stein.

Stein is a nonfactor. She's at like 2% nationally. Deez Nuts polls higher than her.
1harderthanyouthink
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6/11/2016 3:47:42 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 3:33:45 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 3:19:59 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:12:02 AM, thett3 wrote:
Do you also believe that sh1tty poll that had Trump up two in Oregon, or are you just cherry picking bad polls because you're sad that nobody voted for outsourcing and wars for Israel

She would be in serious danger in potentially even Oregon with how many Bernie supporters are flocking to Stein.

Stein is a nonfactor. She's at like 2% nationally. Deez Nuts polls higher than her.

I expect her to grow following the Dem Convention when Sanders holdouts have nowhere to go.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
TN05
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6/11/2016 1:57:34 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 3:47:42 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 6/11/2016 3:33:45 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 3:19:59 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:12:02 AM, thett3 wrote:
Do you also believe that sh1tty poll that had Trump up two in Oregon, or are you just cherry picking bad polls because you're sad that nobody voted for outsourcing and wars for Israel

She would be in serious danger in potentially even Oregon with how many Bernie supporters are flocking to Stein.

Stein is a nonfactor. She's at like 2% nationally. Deez Nuts polls higher than her.

I expect her to grow following the Dem Convention when Sanders holdouts have nowhere to go.

I'm not so sure. We saw Republicans who hate Trump even more than Sanders supporters hate Clinton join him. I expect the vast majority of Sanders supporters to support Clinton. Liberals are usually better at avoiding split votes anyway after 2000.
Raisor
Posts: 4,462
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6/11/2016 3:17:52 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 1:29:28 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:22:16 AM, Ramshutu wrote:
At 6/11/2016 12:51:53 AM, thett3 wrote:
This poll was done by Zogby, which holds the dubious title of the worst pollster in the world: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

TN05, when are you going to stop being a sore loser?

... in 2009; when they got Obamas approval record 9 points lower than the average.

But in 2012; they obviously did something right, because their forecast was +0.1% republican vs actual results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

I don't necessarily disagree with you on the validity of the poll, but don't fall foul of the "polls are inaccurate" when you're down, and "polls are accurate" when you're ahead.

Okay, then this loss is offset by Trump winning in Oregon: http://cloutpolitical.com...

There is literally a 0% chance that Hillary Clinton will win Kansas, and TN05 knows it...he's just trying to make Trump look bad because nobody likes his ideology

There is a chance Clinton wins Kansas.

Literally anything could happen...when was the last time GOP senators openly proclaimed they were not supporting the nominee? We can talk about backlash against the establishment all we want but the fact is a lot of people simply won't vote for someone perceived as racist and denounced by their own party.

Trump is a wildcard, i could see him losing deep red states.
twocupcakes
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6/11/2016 3:37:58 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/10/2016 10:21:26 PM, TN05 wrote:
New poll out shows him down seven in Kansas.

http://bit.ly...

Kansas has not voted for a Democrat since 1964.

I heard there was a decent chance he could lose Texas lol.
thett3
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6/11/2016 3:47:37 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 3:17:52 PM, Raisor wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:29:28 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:22:16 AM, Ramshutu wrote:
At 6/11/2016 12:51:53 AM, thett3 wrote:
This poll was done by Zogby, which holds the dubious title of the worst pollster in the world: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

TN05, when are you going to stop being a sore loser?

... in 2009; when they got Obamas approval record 9 points lower than the average.

But in 2012; they obviously did something right, because their forecast was +0.1% republican vs actual results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

I don't necessarily disagree with you on the validity of the poll, but don't fall foul of the "polls are inaccurate" when you're down, and "polls are accurate" when you're ahead.

Okay, then this loss is offset by Trump winning in Oregon: http://cloutpolitical.com...

There is literally a 0% chance that Hillary Clinton will win Kansas, and TN05 knows it...he's just trying to make Trump look bad because nobody likes his ideology

There is a chance Clinton wins Kansas.

Literally anything could happen...when was the last time GOP senators openly proclaimed they were not supporting the nominee? We can talk about backlash against the establishment all we want but the fact is a lot of people simply won't vote for someone perceived as racist and denounced by their own party.

Trump is a wildcard, i could see him losing deep red states.

You'd be surprised just now normal this election is: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

The unique nature of the Trump campaign does cause some changes...because of his positions he has a greater chance of winning close states like Michigan and Pennslyvania than a typical big business Republican and a smaller chance of winning a close state like Virginia. He's also probably not going to be winning deep red evangelical states like Kansas by quite the same overwhelming margins that Romney did, but he will still win them and his weaknesses there will be offset by unusual strength in states like Connecticut and New Jersey that he is still going to lose.

Trump has also said he's going to be campaigning in places like California and New York. I hope he does, because every time leftist mobs attack his supporters he gains another hundred thousand votes or so. There is now literally nothing that can convince me to not vote for Trump because I am going to spite those mobs and I know I'm not alone in that crowd. That is the way Trump wins.

It's probably not going to be a Clinton blowout. I don't know enough to predict who is going to win, but this country is simply too partisan these days for landslides to still occur--the actual number of swing voters is incredibly small and Obama probably won virtually all of them in 2008...and McCain still got a solid 46% of the vote.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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6/11/2016 4:05:18 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 3:47:37 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 3:17:52 PM, Raisor wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:29:28 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:22:16 AM, Ramshutu wrote:
At 6/11/2016 12:51:53 AM, thett3 wrote:
This poll was done by Zogby, which holds the dubious title of the worst pollster in the world: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

TN05, when are you going to stop being a sore loser?

... in 2009; when they got Obamas approval record 9 points lower than the average.

But in 2012; they obviously did something right, because their forecast was +0.1% republican vs actual results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

I don't necessarily disagree with you on the validity of the poll, but don't fall foul of the "polls are inaccurate" when you're down, and "polls are accurate" when you're ahead.

Okay, then this loss is offset by Trump winning in Oregon: http://cloutpolitical.com...

There is literally a 0% chance that Hillary Clinton will win Kansas, and TN05 knows it...he's just trying to make Trump look bad because nobody likes his ideology

There is a chance Clinton wins Kansas.

Literally anything could happen...when was the last time GOP senators openly proclaimed they were not supporting the nominee? We can talk about backlash against the establishment all we want but the fact is a lot of people simply won't vote for someone perceived as racist and denounced by their own party.

Trump is a wildcard, i could see him losing deep red states.

You'd be surprised just now normal this election is: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

The unique nature of the Trump campaign does cause some changes...because of his positions he has a greater chance of winning close states like Michigan and Pennslyvania than a typical big business Republican and a smaller chance of winning a close state like Virginia. He's also probably not going to be winning deep red evangelical states like Kansas by quite the same overwhelming margins that Romney did, but he will still win them and his weaknesses there will be offset by unusual strength in states like Connecticut and New Jersey that he is still going to lose.

2 things:

Trump has no chance of winning Michigan or Pennsylvania, because he is anathema to suburban voters. Republicans have already won over the working class in eastern Pennsylvania. The reason they are losing is the suburbs in Philly hate them. Similar thing in Michigan.

Also, Kansas isn't a typical 'evangelical' state. It's like the Republican version of Maine - deeply Republican, but not extremely conservative because there are a ton of moderates.

Trump has also said he's going to be campaigning in places like California and New York. I hope he does, because every time leftist mobs attack his supporters he gains another hundred thousand votes or so. There is now literally nothing that can convince me to not vote for Trump because I am going to spite those mobs and I know I'm not alone in that crowd. That is the way Trump wins.

Trump could win 60% of whites in California and 60% of the vote in upstate and still get blown out. It's a waste of money.

It's probably not going to be a Clinton blowout. I don't know enough to predict who is going to win, but this country is simply too partisan these days for landslides to still occur--the actual number of swing voters is incredibly small and Obama probably won virtually all of them in 2008...and McCain still got a solid 46% of the vote.

You are right there. We haven't had a real blowout since 1984. Obama's 2008 win was basically just the reverse of 1988. It's hard to get under 45% for any candidate, but if there is one guy who can do it it is Trump.
Raisor
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6/11/2016 5:22:53 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 3:47:37 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 3:17:52 PM, Raisor wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:29:28 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:22:16 AM, Ramshutu wrote:
At 6/11/2016 12:51:53 AM, thett3 wrote:
This poll was done by Zogby, which holds the dubious title of the worst pollster in the world: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

TN05, when are you going to stop being a sore loser?

... in 2009; when they got Obamas approval record 9 points lower than the average.

But in 2012; they obviously did something right, because their forecast was +0.1% republican vs actual results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

I don't necessarily disagree with you on the validity of the poll, but don't fall foul of the "polls are inaccurate" when you're down, and "polls are accurate" when you're ahead.

Okay, then this loss is offset by Trump winning in Oregon: http://cloutpolitical.com...

There is literally a 0% chance that Hillary Clinton will win Kansas, and TN05 knows it...he's just trying to make Trump look bad because nobody likes his ideology

There is a chance Clinton wins Kansas.

Literally anything could happen...when was the last time GOP senators openly proclaimed they were not supporting the nominee? We can talk about backlash against the establishment all we want but the fact is a lot of people simply won't vote for someone perceived as racist and denounced by their own party.

Trump is a wildcard, i could see him losing deep red states.

You'd be surprised just now normal this election is: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

The unique nature of the Trump campaign does cause some changes...because of his positions he has a greater chance of winning close states like Michigan and Pennslyvania than a typical big business Republican and a smaller chance of winning a close state like Virginia. He's also probably not going to be winning deep red evangelical states like Kansas by quite the same overwhelming margins that Romney did, but he will still win them and his weaknesses there will be offset by unusual strength in states like Connecticut and New Jersey that he is still going to lose.

Trump has also said he's going to be campaigning in places like California and New York. I hope he does, because every time leftist mobs attack his supporters he gains another hundred thousand votes or so. There is now literally nothing that can convince me to not vote for Trump because I am going to spite those mobs and I know I'm not alone in that crowd. That is the way Trump wins.

It's probably not going to be a Clinton blowout. I don't know enough to predict who is going to win, but this country is simply too partisan these days for landslides to still occur--the actual number of swing voters is incredibly small and Obama probably won virtually all of them in 2008...and McCain still got a solid 46% of the vote.

If Trump keeps shedding establishment support, there is no way he will win. You still need a campaign team to win a national election, you need people to help turn out the vote and run ground game. Trump doesn't have that.

It isn't just about swing voters- its about turnout. If Trump keeps going the way he has, there will be a lot of GOP voters that simply stay home or vote third party. I think it is still too early to evaluate this impact. But I think polls around August will be pretty telling.
thett3
Posts: 14,378
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6/11/2016 9:58:10 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 5:22:53 PM, Raisor wrote:
At 6/11/2016 3:47:37 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 3:17:52 PM, Raisor wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:29:28 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:22:16 AM, Ramshutu wrote:
At 6/11/2016 12:51:53 AM, thett3 wrote:
This poll was done by Zogby, which holds the dubious title of the worst pollster in the world: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

TN05, when are you going to stop being a sore loser?

... in 2009; when they got Obamas approval record 9 points lower than the average.

But in 2012; they obviously did something right, because their forecast was +0.1% republican vs actual results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

I don't necessarily disagree with you on the validity of the poll, but don't fall foul of the "polls are inaccurate" when you're down, and "polls are accurate" when you're ahead.

Okay, then this loss is offset by Trump winning in Oregon: http://cloutpolitical.com...

There is literally a 0% chance that Hillary Clinton will win Kansas, and TN05 knows it...he's just trying to make Trump look bad because nobody likes his ideology

There is a chance Clinton wins Kansas.

Literally anything could happen...when was the last time GOP senators openly proclaimed they were not supporting the nominee? We can talk about backlash against the establishment all we want but the fact is a lot of people simply won't vote for someone perceived as racist and denounced by their own party.

Trump is a wildcard, i could see him losing deep red states.

You'd be surprised just now normal this election is: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

The unique nature of the Trump campaign does cause some changes...because of his positions he has a greater chance of winning close states like Michigan and Pennslyvania than a typical big business Republican and a smaller chance of winning a close state like Virginia. He's also probably not going to be winning deep red evangelical states like Kansas by quite the same overwhelming margins that Romney did, but he will still win them and his weaknesses there will be offset by unusual strength in states like Connecticut and New Jersey that he is still going to lose.

Trump has also said he's going to be campaigning in places like California and New York. I hope he does, because every time leftist mobs attack his supporters he gains another hundred thousand votes or so. There is now literally nothing that can convince me to not vote for Trump because I am going to spite those mobs and I know I'm not alone in that crowd. That is the way Trump wins.

It's probably not going to be a Clinton blowout. I don't know enough to predict who is going to win, but this country is simply too partisan these days for landslides to still occur--the actual number of swing voters is incredibly small and Obama probably won virtually all of them in 2008...and McCain still got a solid 46% of the vote.

If Trump keeps shedding establishment support, there is no way he will win. You still need a campaign team to win a national election, you need people to help turn out the vote and run ground game. Trump doesn't have that.

Did you read the article? Trump has already consolidated the party. Nobody cares about what the war hawks have to say. In April, the month of Trumps peak unpopularity among Republicans, Romney was less popular still.

Their support is literally meaningless. Nobody is going to turn out because of a Jeb Bush endorsement


It isn't just about swing voters- its about turnout. If Trump keeps going the way he has, there will be a lot of GOP voters that simply stay home or vote third party. I think it is still too early to evaluate this impact. But I think polls around August will be pretty telling.

I agree that it's about turnout but you're wrong about GOP voters staying home. It's not going to be a blowout any way
DDO Vice President

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"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Rukado
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6/11/2016 10:16:25 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 9:58:10 PM, thett3 wrote:
I agree that it's about turnout but you're wrong about GOP voters staying home. It's not going to be a blowout any way

Neocons, like William "Krist Killer" Kristol, are waging a big campaign to keep Republican Evangelicals home, sabotaging not only Trump, but the Supreme Court for a generation, and harming conservatives in all local issues and offices across the country. The same Zionist Christian fools who give us the Iraq war aren't done trashing America.
Raisor
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6/11/2016 10:19:07 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 9:58:10 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 5:22:53 PM, Raisor wrote:
At 6/11/2016 3:47:37 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 3:17:52 PM, Raisor wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:29:28 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 1:22:16 AM, Ramshutu wrote:
At 6/11/2016 12:51:53 AM, thett3 wrote:
This poll was done by Zogby, which holds the dubious title of the worst pollster in the world: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

TN05, when are you going to stop being a sore loser?

... in 2009; when they got Obamas approval record 9 points lower than the average.

But in 2012; they obviously did something right, because their forecast was +0.1% republican vs actual results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

I don't necessarily disagree with you on the validity of the poll, but don't fall foul of the "polls are inaccurate" when you're down, and "polls are accurate" when you're ahead.

Okay, then this loss is offset by Trump winning in Oregon: http://cloutpolitical.com...

There is literally a 0% chance that Hillary Clinton will win Kansas, and TN05 knows it...he's just trying to make Trump look bad because nobody likes his ideology

There is a chance Clinton wins Kansas.

Literally anything could happen...when was the last time GOP senators openly proclaimed they were not supporting the nominee? We can talk about backlash against the establishment all we want but the fact is a lot of people simply won't vote for someone perceived as racist and denounced by their own party.

Trump is a wildcard, i could see him losing deep red states.

You'd be surprised just now normal this election is: http://fivethirtyeight.com...

The unique nature of the Trump campaign does cause some changes...because of his positions he has a greater chance of winning close states like Michigan and Pennslyvania than a typical big business Republican and a smaller chance of winning a close state like Virginia. He's also probably not going to be winning deep red evangelical states like Kansas by quite the same overwhelming margins that Romney did, but he will still win them and his weaknesses there will be offset by unusual strength in states like Connecticut and New Jersey that he is still going to lose.

Trump has also said he's going to be campaigning in places like California and New York. I hope he does, because every time leftist mobs attack his supporters he gains another hundred thousand votes or so. There is now literally nothing that can convince me to not vote for Trump because I am going to spite those mobs and I know I'm not alone in that crowd. That is the way Trump wins.

It's probably not going to be a Clinton blowout. I don't know enough to predict who is going to win, but this country is simply too partisan these days for landslides to still occur--the actual number of swing voters is incredibly small and Obama probably won virtually all of them in 2008...and McCain still got a solid 46% of the vote.

If Trump keeps shedding establishment support, there is no way he will win. You still need a campaign team to win a national election, you need people to help turn out the vote and run ground game. Trump doesn't have that.

Did you read the article? Trump has already consolidated the party. Nobody cares about what the war hawks have to say. In April, the month of Trumps peak unpopularity among Republicans, Romney was less popular still.

Their support is literally meaningless. Nobody is going to turn out because of a Jeb Bush endorsement


It isn't just about swing voters- its about turnout. If Trump keeps going the way he has, there will be a lot of GOP voters that simply stay home or vote third party. I think it is still too early to evaluate this impact. But I think polls around August will be pretty telling.

I agree that it's about turnout but you're wrong about GOP voters staying home. It's not going to be a blowout any way

Yeah I read the article, you are overstating the point the article makes. It doesn't prove that voters will turn up to vote, it proves that partisanship creates a floor for trump in terms of stated support. I honestly don't think it even proves that, any poll is a snapshot in time- I don't think poll results right now will be representative of public opinion in November. The article doesn't doesn't address that major gop leaders are literally refusing to endorse their candidate, despite claiming the gop is falling in line. The data is interesting, but not convincing that trump is a typical candidate (he isn't)
thett3
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6/11/2016 10:21:56 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 10:19:07 PM, Raisor wrote:

Yeah I read the article, you are overstating the point the article makes. It doesn't prove that voters will turn up to vote, it proves that partisanship creates a floor for trump in terms of stated support. I honestly don't think it even proves that, any poll is a snapshot in time- I don't think poll results right now will be representative of public opinion in November. The article doesn't doesn't address that major gop leaders are literally refusing to endorse their candidate, despite claiming the gop is falling in line. The data is interesting, but not convincing that trump is a typical candidate (he isn't)

Do you really not get yet that GOP voters couldn't possibly care any less about what their so called "leaders" think?

Nobody cares what these "leaders" think. There is a floor for any candidate that is pretty large...landslides don't happen anymore and will not happen anymore
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
TBR
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6/11/2016 10:22:01 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 10:16:25 PM, Rukado wrote:
At 6/11/2016 9:58:10 PM, thett3 wrote:
I agree that it's about turnout but you're wrong about GOP voters staying home. It's not going to be a blowout any way

Neocons, like William "Krist Killer" Kristol, are waging a big campaign to keep Republican Evangelicals home, sabotaging not only Trump, but the Supreme Court for a generation, and harming conservatives in all local issues and offices across the country. The same Zionist Christian fools who give us the Iraq war aren't done trashing America.

Evangelicals should stay home. Like always stay home.
thett3
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6/11/2016 10:24:23 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 10:16:25 PM, Rukado wrote:
At 6/11/2016 9:58:10 PM, thett3 wrote:
I agree that it's about turnout but you're wrong about GOP voters staying home. It's not going to be a blowout any way

Neocons, like William "Krist Killer" Kristol, are waging a big campaign to keep Republican Evangelicals home, sabotaging not only Trump, but the Supreme Court for a generation, and harming conservatives in all local issues and offices across the country. The same Zionist Christian fools who give us the Iraq war aren't done trashing America.

Yeah, the neocons are the traitorous fifth column of the conservative movement. No surprise given their intellectual genesis comes from communism. Good riddance to those rats, I hope the Democratic Party refuses to take them in
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Raisor
Posts: 4,462
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6/11/2016 10:27:16 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 10:21:56 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 10:19:07 PM, Raisor wrote:

Yeah I read the article, you are overstating the point the article makes. It doesn't prove that voters will turn up to vote, it proves that partisanship creates a floor for trump in terms of stated support. I honestly don't think it even proves that, any poll is a snapshot in time- I don't think poll results right now will be representative of public opinion in November. The article doesn't doesn't address that major gop leaders are literally refusing to endorse their candidate, despite claiming the gop is falling in line. The data is interesting, but not convincing that trump is a typical candidate (he isn't)

Do you really not get yet that GOP voters couldn't possibly care any less about what their so called "leaders" think?

Nobody cares what these "leaders" think. There is a floor for any candidate that is pretty large...landslides don't happen anymore and will not happen anymore

The gop is not monolithic. You describe a certain portion of the voting base, there are portions that do care what their leaders think. People may state they are mad at leadership yet still perceive trump as faltering if gop leadership abandon him. This is all speculation anyways, we will see what happens. Maybe trump makes nice with gop or vice Versace and this is all moot.

Nonetheless i don't buy the floor argument. With a different candidate I would.

The last two elections were land slides, but they don't happen anymore? Don't buy it.
thett3
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6/11/2016 10:33:06 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 6/11/2016 10:27:16 PM, Raisor wrote:
At 6/11/2016 10:21:56 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 6/11/2016 10:19:07 PM, Raisor wrote:

Yeah I read the article, you are overstating the point the article makes. It doesn't prove that voters will turn up to vote, it proves that partisanship creates a floor for trump in terms of stated support. I honestly don't think it even proves that, any poll is a snapshot in time- I don't think poll results right now will be representative of public opinion in November. The article doesn't doesn't address that major gop leaders are literally refusing to endorse their candidate, despite claiming the gop is falling in line. The data is interesting, but not convincing that trump is a typical candidate (he isn't)

Do you really not get yet that GOP voters couldn't possibly care any less about what their so called "leaders" think?

Nobody cares what these "leaders" think. There is a floor for any candidate that is pretty large...landslides don't happen anymore and will not happen anymore

The gop is not monolithic. You describe a certain portion of the voting base, there are portions that do care what their leaders think. People may state they are mad at leadership yet still perceive trump as faltering if gop leadership abandon him.

Romney choked and lost an easily winnable election, and virtually all Republicans know it which is why he's so unpopular. Romney is fighting Trump far harder than he ever fought Obama and everybody knows it...which is why he's a loser. I regret voting for him in 2012

You have no idea how despised Clinton is among the GOP base. They'll fall in line and vote for anyone to stop her.

This is all speculation anyways, we will see what happens. Maybe trump makes nice with gop or vice Versace and this is all moot.

Nonetheless i don't buy the floor argument. With a different candidate I would.

Like it or not, Trump is saying the things the GOP base has been supporting and dying to hear for decades.


The last two elections were land slides, but they don't happen anymore? Don't buy it.

What???? Clearly we have different opinions of what a "landslide" is. yes, it remains possible for a candidate to get a bare majority of the vote like Obama did in 2012. Some "landslide"

I'm talking things like '64, '72, '84, ect. the kind of landslides that would turn Kansas blue
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right