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Hillary More Popular, Trump Less

bsh1
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6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?
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Vox_Veritas
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6/18/2016 2:50:35 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?

On Sunday Hillary was leading Trump by 12 points.
TWELVE POINTS!
6.4 points is a remarkable improvement, especially considering that just 5 days have passed.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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bsh1
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6/18/2016 2:54:55 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 2:50:35 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?

On Sunday Hillary was leading Trump by 12 points.

This tracks the polls in aggregate, so it is a sum total of all the polls, and isn't overly skewed by any single one. All polls are going to produce a range of results, and aggregating them may produce a more accurate overall picture by using more data to estimate what is going on.

6.4 points is a remarkable improvement, especially considering that just 5 days have passed.

25 days have passed, Vox.
Live Long and Prosper

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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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6/18/2016 3:02:20 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
I might also add that the GOP has a net favorability rating of -30.2 points, while the Democratic Party has a next favorability rating of -0.3 points. That is a 29.9 point gulf between them.

Plus, the GOP has been losing popularity since January 24th, whereas the Democrats have been gaining popularity since October 8th. I cannot help but think that part of this is due to Trump.

[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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Vox_Veritas
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6/18/2016 3:24:54 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 2:54:55 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:50:35 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?

On Sunday Hillary was leading Trump by 12 points.

This tracks the polls in aggregate, so it is a sum total of all the polls, and isn't overly skewed by any single one. All polls are going to produce a range of results, and aggregating them may produce a more accurate overall picture by using more data to estimate what is going on.

Just saying. Around the period of Sunday that 12% figure was the one that everyone was using.

6.4 points is a remarkable improvement, especially considering that just 5 days have passed.

25 days have passed, Vox.

I was talking about since Sunday.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
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bsh1
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6/18/2016 3:28:17 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 3:24:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:54:55 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:50:35 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?

On Sunday Hillary was leading Trump by 12 points.

This tracks the polls in aggregate, so it is a sum total of all the polls, and isn't overly skewed by any single one. All polls are going to produce a range of results, and aggregating them may produce a more accurate overall picture by using more data to estimate what is going on.

Just saying. Around the period of Sunday that 12% figure was the one that everyone was using.

Okay, but it's not the one I am citing here.

On another note...Hillary has led--by more than 1% margins--every poll since the first of June used in that aggregate, and has led every single poll by some margin since May 20th, when she tied in one poll.

Trump, before May 20th, had led some of those polls. Clearly, he is losing--not gaining--ground to Clinton.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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Vox_Veritas
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6/18/2016 3:31:16 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 3:28:17 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:24:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:54:55 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:50:35 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?

On Sunday Hillary was leading Trump by 12 points.

This tracks the polls in aggregate, so it is a sum total of all the polls, and isn't overly skewed by any single one. All polls are going to produce a range of results, and aggregating them may produce a more accurate overall picture by using more data to estimate what is going on.

Just saying. Around the period of Sunday that 12% figure was the one that everyone was using.

Okay, but it's not the one I am citing here.

On another note...Hillary has led--by more than 1% margins--every poll since the first of June used in that aggregate, and has led every single poll by some margin since May 20th, when she tied in one poll.

Trump, before May 20th, had led some of those polls. Clearly, he is losing--not gaining--ground to Clinton.

I will certainly acknowledge that since May his poll rating against Clinton has taken a tremendous nosedive, seemingly out of nowhere and for no reason. What I'm arguing is that now he's recovering from that.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
bsh1
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6/18/2016 3:33:36 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 3:31:16 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:28:17 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:24:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:54:55 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:50:35 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?

On Sunday Hillary was leading Trump by 12 points.

This tracks the polls in aggregate, so it is a sum total of all the polls, and isn't overly skewed by any single one. All polls are going to produce a range of results, and aggregating them may produce a more accurate overall picture by using more data to estimate what is going on.

Just saying. Around the period of Sunday that 12% figure was the one that everyone was using.

Okay, but it's not the one I am citing here.

On another note...Hillary has led--by more than 1% margins--every poll since the first of June used in that aggregate, and has led every single poll by some margin since May 20th, when she tied in one poll.

Trump, before May 20th, had led some of those polls. Clearly, he is losing--not gaining--ground to Clinton.

I will certainly acknowledge that since May his poll rating against Clinton has taken a tremendous nosedive, seemingly out of nowhere and for no reason. What I'm arguing is that now he's recovering from that.

Where on Earth is the evidence for that?
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
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TN05
Posts: 4,492
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6/18/2016 5:18:27 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 3:33:36 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:31:16 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:28:17 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:24:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:54:55 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:50:35 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?

On Sunday Hillary was leading Trump by 12 points.

This tracks the polls in aggregate, so it is a sum total of all the polls, and isn't overly skewed by any single one. All polls are going to produce a range of results, and aggregating them may produce a more accurate overall picture by using more data to estimate what is going on.

Just saying. Around the period of Sunday that 12% figure was the one that everyone was using.

Okay, but it's not the one I am citing here.

On another note...Hillary has led--by more than 1% margins--every poll since the first of June used in that aggregate, and has led every single poll by some margin since May 20th, when she tied in one poll.

Trump, before May 20th, had led some of those polls. Clearly, he is losing--not gaining--ground to Clinton.

I will certainly acknowledge that since May his poll rating against Clinton has taken a tremendous nosedive, seemingly out of nowhere and for no reason. What I'm arguing is that now he's recovering from that.

Where on Earth is the evidence for that?

The same place other Trump supporters find their evidence from - their rear end.
TN05
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6/18/2016 5:29:01 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
What Trump is discovering is that a strategy that won 40% of Republicans over doesn't work in a general. White women - especially suburbanites - aren't a fan of racial identity politics. Millennials aren't interested in a 9 to 5 job in a lightbulb factory. Urban black voters (who might normally be reachable through trade populism), Hispanics (who favor the GOP on social issues like abortion), and Asians (who narrowly supported Republicans in 2014) aren't reachable through racial dog-whistling.

What Trump is left with is a sad, pathetic group consisting primarily of non-college educated whites and Republicans who will always vote for anyone they put up. And even the latter are slipping - he's down to 73% support among Republicans whereas he was at 85% last month. What's craziest here is Hillary hasn't gained much - she's still at around 42%. Trump is just shedding voters.

I'll give him one thing - he's done the impossible. He's Made the House Competitive Again.
Geographia
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6/18/2016 6:36:41 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 3:02:20 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I might also add that the GOP has a net favorability rating of -30.2 points, while the Democratic Party has a next favorability rating of -0.3 points. That is a 29.9 point gulf between them.

Plus, the GOP has been losing popularity since January 24th, whereas the Democrats have been gaining popularity since October 8th. I cannot help but think that part of this is due to Trump.

[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

People hated the GOP long before Trump.
Ore_Ele
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6/18/2016 6:53:22 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 6:36:41 PM, Geographia wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:02:20 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I might also add that the GOP has a net favorability rating of -30.2 points, while the Democratic Party has a next favorability rating of -0.3 points. That is a 29.9 point gulf between them.

Plus, the GOP has been losing popularity since January 24th, whereas the Democrats have been gaining popularity since October 8th. I cannot help but think that part of this is due to Trump.

[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

People hated the GOP long before Trump.

Yeah, but Cheeto Jesus is making it worse... and more comically at the same time.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
bsh1
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6/18/2016 7:08:33 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 6:36:41 PM, Geographia wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:02:20 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I might also add that the GOP has a net favorability rating of -30.2 points, while the Democratic Party has a next favorability rating of -0.3 points. That is a 29.9 point gulf between them.

Plus, the GOP has been losing popularity since January 24th, whereas the Democrats have been gaining popularity since October 8th. I cannot help but think that part of this is due to Trump.

[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

People hated the GOP long before Trump.

Sure, but the GOP has been in a steep popularity nosedive since January of this year. So, what you'll see in those charts is that the GOP has become a lot more hated since the primaries began.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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6/18/2016 7:09:05 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 5:29:01 PM, TN05 wrote:
What Trump is discovering is that a strategy that won 40% of Republicans over doesn't work in a general. White women - especially suburbanites - aren't a fan of racial identity politics. Millennials aren't interested in a 9 to 5 job in a lightbulb factory. Urban black voters (who might normally be reachable through trade populism), Hispanics (who favor the GOP on social issues like abortion), and Asians (who narrowly supported Republicans in 2014) aren't reachable through racial dog-whistling.

What Trump is left with is a sad, pathetic group consisting primarily of non-college educated whites and Republicans who will always vote for anyone they put up. And even the latter are slipping - he's down to 73% support among Republicans whereas he was at 85% last month. What's craziest here is Hillary hasn't gained much - she's still at around 42%. Trump is just shedding voters.

I'll give him one thing - he's done the impossible. He's Made the House Competitive Again.

Could not agree more.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
Vox_Veritas
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6/18/2016 7:26:32 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 3:33:36 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:31:16 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:28:17 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:24:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:54:55 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:50:35 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?

On Sunday Hillary was leading Trump by 12 points.

This tracks the polls in aggregate, so it is a sum total of all the polls, and isn't overly skewed by any single one. All polls are going to produce a range of results, and aggregating them may produce a more accurate overall picture by using more data to estimate what is going on.

Just saying. Around the period of Sunday that 12% figure was the one that everyone was using.

Okay, but it's not the one I am citing here.

On another note...Hillary has led--by more than 1% margins--every poll since the first of June used in that aggregate, and has led every single poll by some margin since May 20th, when she tied in one poll.

Trump, before May 20th, had led some of those polls. Clearly, he is losing--not gaining--ground to Clinton.

I will certainly acknowledge that since May his poll rating against Clinton has taken a tremendous nosedive, seemingly out of nowhere and for no reason. What I'm arguing is that now he's recovering from that.

Where on Earth is the evidence for that?

Here you go:
http://theweek.com...
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
TN05
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6/18/2016 7:33:31 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 7:26:32 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:33:36 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:31:16 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:28:17 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:24:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:54:55 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:50:35 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?

On Sunday Hillary was leading Trump by 12 points.

This tracks the polls in aggregate, so it is a sum total of all the polls, and isn't overly skewed by any single one. All polls are going to produce a range of results, and aggregating them may produce a more accurate overall picture by using more data to estimate what is going on.

Just saying. Around the period of Sunday that 12% figure was the one that everyone was using.

Okay, but it's not the one I am citing here.

On another note...Hillary has led--by more than 1% margins--every poll since the first of June used in that aggregate, and has led every single poll by some margin since May 20th, when she tied in one poll.

Trump, before May 20th, had led some of those polls. Clearly, he is losing--not gaining--ground to Clinton.

I will certainly acknowledge that since May his poll rating against Clinton has taken a tremendous nosedive, seemingly out of nowhere and for no reason. What I'm arguing is that now he's recovering from that.

Where on Earth is the evidence for that?

Here you go:
http://theweek.com...

Your evidence is seriously a poll where he is down 10 instead of 14? You do realize both are above the actual polling margin, right?
bsh1
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6/18/2016 7:34:27 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 7:26:32 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:33:36 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:31:16 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:28:17 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:24:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:54:55 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:50:35 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?

On Sunday Hillary was leading Trump by 12 points.

This tracks the polls in aggregate, so it is a sum total of all the polls, and isn't overly skewed by any single one. All polls are going to produce a range of results, and aggregating them may produce a more accurate overall picture by using more data to estimate what is going on.

Just saying. Around the period of Sunday that 12% figure was the one that everyone was using.

Okay, but it's not the one I am citing here.

On another note...Hillary has led--by more than 1% margins--every poll since the first of June used in that aggregate, and has led every single poll by some margin since May 20th, when she tied in one poll.

Trump, before May 20th, had led some of those polls. Clearly, he is losing--not gaining--ground to Clinton.

I will certainly acknowledge that since May his poll rating against Clinton has taken a tremendous nosedive, seemingly out of nowhere and for no reason. What I'm arguing is that now he's recovering from that.

Where on Earth is the evidence for that?

Here you go:
http://theweek.com...

So, you're citing one poll against the 6 that have been conducted on or after June 12th that are included in that aggregate? For the record, all of those have Clinton leading by 5-12 points. Even in that poll you cited, the change in her lead is only about 4 points, which could easily be explained by normal variations in polling, and she is still ahead by 10 points. The aggregate data shows Trump is down a net 0.2 points since June 12th...that doesn't look like improvement to me.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

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Geographia
Posts: 1,467
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6/18/2016 8:31:48 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 6:53:22 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 6/18/2016 6:36:41 PM, Geographia wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:02:20 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I might also add that the GOP has a net favorability rating of -30.2 points, while the Democratic Party has a next favorability rating of -0.3 points. That is a 29.9 point gulf between them.

Plus, the GOP has been losing popularity since January 24th, whereas the Democrats have been gaining popularity since October 8th. I cannot help but think that part of this is due to Trump.

[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

People hated the GOP long before Trump.

Yeah, but Cheeto Jesus is making it worse... and more comically at the same time.

Cheeto Jesus Christ is the best candidate out there. And that is why November will be so damn comical. We had Rubio bomb his own campaign with his robot speech. We had Cruz pair up with Kasich only to throw him under the bus. Bernie's thing is basically "free sh!t", and Hillary is the most infernal person in US politics.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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6/18/2016 8:55:13 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 8:31:48 PM, Geographia wrote:
At 6/18/2016 6:53:22 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 6/18/2016 6:36:41 PM, Geographia wrote:
At 6/18/2016 3:02:20 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I might also add that the GOP has a net favorability rating of -30.2 points, while the Democratic Party has a next favorability rating of -0.3 points. That is a 29.9 point gulf between them.

Plus, the GOP has been losing popularity since January 24th, whereas the Democrats have been gaining popularity since October 8th. I cannot help but think that part of this is due to Trump.

[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

People hated the GOP long before Trump.

Yeah, but Cheeto Jesus is making it worse... and more comically at the same time.

Cheeto Jesus Christ is the best candidate out there. And that is why November will be so damn comical. We had Rubio bomb his own campaign with his robot speech. We had Cruz pair up with Kasich only to throw him under the bus. Bernie's thing is basically "free sh!t", and Hillary is the most infernal person in US politics.

I don't think you actually understand Bernie's platforms, though it doesn't matter at this point. Trump is far from our best candidate, but I'm sure that has been debated to no end already on here.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Geographia
Posts: 1,467
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6/18/2016 9:15:44 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 8:55:13 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:

I don't think you actually understand Bernie's platforms, though it doesn't matter at this point. Trump is far from our best candidate, but I'm sure that has been debated to no end already on here.

If you were to mix Trump's economic policies with Bernie's social, minus gun control and his views on police, you'll get my ideal candidate.

I'm not in a mood to debate Clinton/Trump.
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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6/18/2016 9:49:48 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
When the Guccifer 2.0 docs are confirmed and released in full, I expect a 5% drop for Hillary.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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6/18/2016 10:09:43 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 9:49:48 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
When the Guccifer 2.0 docs are confirmed and released in full, I expect a 5% drop for Hillary.

Yea, I doubt it. I am interested to see (read) the data, but I bet it is primarily opposition research. Regardless, people who will bother to read it have little shock at seeing that the DNC has been "siding" with Clinton from the start.

I don't know... There is also this narrative that you could make it sound like sloppy security work - yet again. Regardless if it was Clinton directly, the attack has some legs in worrying people about how she played very loose with security in her time.
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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6/18/2016 10:17:33 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 10:09:43 PM, TBR wrote:
At 6/18/2016 9:49:48 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
When the Guccifer 2.0 docs are confirmed and released in full, I expect a 5% drop for Hillary.

Yea, I doubt it. I am interested to see (read) the data, but I bet it is primarily opposition research. Regardless, people who will bother to read it have little shock at seeing that the DNC has been "siding" with Clinton from the start.

I don't know... There is also this narrative that you could make it sound like sloppy security work - yet again. Regardless if it was Clinton directly, the attack has some legs in worrying people about how she played very loose with security in her time.

I don't expect 75-85% of Sanders supporters to publicly support her over Trump after this. They're going to hold the DNC hostage over this.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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6/18/2016 10:22:14 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 10:17:33 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 6/18/2016 10:09:43 PM, TBR wrote:
At 6/18/2016 9:49:48 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
When the Guccifer 2.0 docs are confirmed and released in full, I expect a 5% drop for Hillary.

Yea, I doubt it. I am interested to see (read) the data, but I bet it is primarily opposition research. Regardless, people who will bother to read it have little shock at seeing that the DNC has been "siding" with Clinton from the start.

I don't know... There is also this narrative that you could make it sound like sloppy security work - yet again. Regardless if it was Clinton directly, the attack has some legs in worrying people about how she played very loose with security in her time.

I don't expect 75-85% of Sanders supporters to publicly support her over Trump after this. They're going to hold the DNC hostage over this.

Most of the Sanders supporters will vote for her. The defection rate will be just slightly higher than historic numbers. Most of the Sanders supporters are concerned about Trump, so they have motivation past liking Clinton. The only reason I can keep to my word, and not vote Clinton, is because I am in a very safe state. If I weren't (never lived in one of those terrible states - wonder what its like) I would have to vote for her too, and I would.
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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6/18/2016 10:29:58 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 10:22:14 PM, TBR wrote:
At 6/18/2016 10:17:33 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 6/18/2016 10:09:43 PM, TBR wrote:
At 6/18/2016 9:49:48 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
When the Guccifer 2.0 docs are confirmed and released in full, I expect a 5% drop for Hillary.

Yea, I doubt it. I am interested to see (read) the data, but I bet it is primarily opposition research. Regardless, people who will bother to read it have little shock at seeing that the DNC has been "siding" with Clinton from the start.

I don't know... There is also this narrative that you could make it sound like sloppy security work - yet again. Regardless if it was Clinton directly, the attack has some legs in worrying people about how she played very loose with security in her time.

I don't expect 75-85% of Sanders supporters to publicly support her over Trump after this. They're going to hold the DNC hostage over this.

Most of the Sanders supporters will vote for her. The defection rate will be just slightly higher than historic numbers. Most of the Sanders supporters are concerned about Trump, so they have motivation past liking Clinton. The only reason I can keep to my word, and not vote Clinton, is because I am in a very safe state. If I weren't (never lived in one of those terrible states - wonder what its like) I would have to vote for her too, and I would.

I think one of her issues will be how states turn out. Her safest votes are in solid red southern states. She won't win New Hampshire, unless their libertarians fetishize Gary Johnson too much. She doesn't have as many safe votes in Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Iowa as Ovama did. Sanders supporters during the primaries make up 45-55% of potential Democratic voters. She's going to need a miracle to hold all of those. The polls, too, are misleading.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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6/18/2016 10:37:46 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 10:29:58 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 6/18/2016 10:22:14 PM, TBR wrote:
At 6/18/2016 10:17:33 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 6/18/2016 10:09:43 PM, TBR wrote:
At 6/18/2016 9:49:48 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
When the Guccifer 2.0 docs are confirmed and released in full, I expect a 5% drop for Hillary.

Yea, I doubt it. I am interested to see (read) the data, but I bet it is primarily opposition research. Regardless, people who will bother to read it have little shock at seeing that the DNC has been "siding" with Clinton from the start.

I don't know... There is also this narrative that you could make it sound like sloppy security work - yet again. Regardless if it was Clinton directly, the attack has some legs in worrying people about how she played very loose with security in her time.

I don't expect 75-85% of Sanders supporters to publicly support her over Trump after this. They're going to hold the DNC hostage over this.

Most of the Sanders supporters will vote for her. The defection rate will be just slightly higher than historic numbers. Most of the Sanders supporters are concerned about Trump, so they have motivation past liking Clinton. The only reason I can keep to my word, and not vote Clinton, is because I am in a very safe state. If I weren't (never lived in one of those terrible states - wonder what its like) I would have to vote for her too, and I would.

I think one of her issues will be how states turn out. Her safest votes are in solid red southern states. She won't win New Hampshire, unless their libertarians fetishize Gary Johnson too much. She doesn't have as many safe votes in Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Iowa as Ovama did. Sanders supporters during the primaries make up 45-55% of potential Democratic voters. She's going to need a miracle to hold all of those. The polls, too, are misleading.

There were so many PUMAS in 2008 that said they would never vote for Obama. Never happened. Even in areas where smart people voted for Sanders (I hate the f*cking south) she is not as hated as Trump. Point is, the voters will put her in out of concern over Trump, not on her own merit. She is, as much as I hate to say it, winning based on no actual personal merit.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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6/19/2016 12:32:50 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 10:17:33 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 6/18/2016 10:09:43 PM, TBR wrote:
At 6/18/2016 9:49:48 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
When the Guccifer 2.0 docs are confirmed and released in full, I expect a 5% drop for Hillary.

Yea, I doubt it. I am interested to see (read) the data, but I bet it is primarily opposition research. Regardless, people who will bother to read it have little shock at seeing that the DNC has been "siding" with Clinton from the start.

I don't know... There is also this narrative that you could make it sound like sloppy security work - yet again. Regardless if it was Clinton directly, the attack has some legs in worrying people about how she played very loose with security in her time.

I don't expect 75-85% of Sanders supporters to publicly support her over Trump after this. They're going to hold the DNC hostage over this.

Sanders supporters aren't interested in a 9-5 job making chairs.
bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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6/19/2016 11:41:34 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
Bump
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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NewLifeChristian
Posts: 1,236
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6/20/2016 12:33:15 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/18/2016 2:41:44 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Since May 23rd, has Hillary padded her lead over Trump in an aggregate of head-to-head polls from 2 points to 6.4 points. In other words, in the last 25 days, her lead grew 3x larger. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Hillary's net favorability rating since May 17th is also on the upswing, shrinking by 2.4 points since then. Trump's favorability rating in the same timeframe grew by 3.5 points.
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...] [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

TN05 says Trump is in free fall. Is he? What may explain these numbers, and will they hold? Any election or convention predictions?
Different polls will say different things. And have you noticed that all your sources have something in common? They're all from a website that is infamous for being anti-Trump (http://dailycaller.com...).
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