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Any Brexit Referendum Predictions?

bsh1
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6/23/2016 3:32:21 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
The voting for the UK's referendum on its EU membership begins in roughly 2.5 hours.

Huff Post's polling aggregator puts the two campaigns (Remain and Leave) only 0.1% apart, with Leave ahead. In other words, it is neck-and-neck. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Jo Cox's death has recently shook up the campaign as well, as has a last minute, if reluctant push, from Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn in favor of Remain.

What are your predictions? How confident are you? Who will win and why?
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PetersSmith
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6/23/2016 3:34:45 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/23/2016 3:32:21 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The voting for the UK's referendum on its EU membership begins in roughly 2.5 hours.

Huff Post's polling aggregator puts the two campaigns (Remain and Leave) only 0.1% apart, with Leave ahead. In other words, it is neck-and-neck. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Jo Cox's death has recently shook up the campaign as well, as has a last minute, if reluctant push, from Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn in favor of Remain.

What are your predictions? How confident are you? Who will win and why?

I fell like they're not going to leave. There's always a "status quo" bias when it comes to voting on things. The result will be tight though so honestly it would be very hard to make an actual prediction.
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bsh1
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6/23/2016 3:36:24 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/23/2016 3:34:45 AM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 6/23/2016 3:32:21 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The voting for the UK's referendum on its EU membership begins in roughly 2.5 hours.

Huff Post's polling aggregator puts the two campaigns (Remain and Leave) only 0.1% apart, with Leave ahead. In other words, it is neck-and-neck. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Jo Cox's death has recently shook up the campaign as well, as has a last minute, if reluctant push, from Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn in favor of Remain.

What are your predictions? How confident are you? Who will win and why?

I fell like they're not going to leave. There's always a "status quo" bias when it comes to voting on things. The result will be tight though so honestly it would be very hard to make an actual prediction.

That is my opinion exactly.
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1harderthanyouthink
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6/23/2016 4:05:40 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
Statistically, they're in dead heat. But the sheer number of undecideds (about 10-15%) make it likely that the "safe choice" - stay - wins.
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Vox_Veritas
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6/23/2016 4:27:20 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
Unfortunately, I think they're gonna stay.
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MattTheDreamer
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6/23/2016 6:40:03 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
I'm hoping for a leave, though I'm thinking it will likely be stay. But I still have hope, things have happened that had worse chances in my lifetime.
Greyparrot
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6/23/2016 12:11:46 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/23/2016 6:40:03 AM, MattTheDreamer wrote:
I'm hoping for a leave, though I'm thinking it will likely be stay. But I still have hope, things have happened that had worse chances in my lifetime.

UK is destined to remain a colony lol.
Lsumichiganfan
Posts: 267
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6/23/2016 1:43:40 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/23/2016 3:32:21 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The voting for the UK's referendum on its EU membership begins in roughly 2.5 hours.

Huff Post's polling aggregator puts the two campaigns (Remain and Leave) only 0.1% apart, with Leave ahead. In other words, it is neck-and-neck. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Jo Cox's death has recently shook up the campaign as well, as has a last minute, if reluctant push, from Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn in favor of Remain.

What are your predictions? How confident are you? Who will win and why?

I think the UK will stay. Not enough crazy rightists in the country.
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famousdebater
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6/23/2016 4:35:18 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
The strength of the leave campaign is very strong. Whilst statistically there seem to be more people in favor of staying, in the UK at the moment, the leave campaign are very public and there are loads of banners and leaflets being handed out about leaving and reasons to leave whilst the stay campaign seems to be pretty quiet.

My prediction is that they will stay though recently I've become more and more unsure of my stance on the issue. I was originally supportive of the stay campaign but the leave campaign has some very compelling and interesting arguments and predictions and potential benefits of leaving.

So as it stands I think that the stay campaign will marginally win although I'm quite sure whether I agree with this or not.
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foxxhajti
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6/23/2016 7:40:00 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/23/2016 3:32:21 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The voting for the UK's referendum on its EU membership begins in roughly 2.5 hours.

Huff Post's polling aggregator puts the two campaigns (Remain and Leave) only 0.1% apart, with Leave ahead. In other words, it is neck-and-neck. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Jo Cox's death has recently shook up the campaign as well, as has a last minute, if reluctant push, from Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn in favor of Remain.

What are your predictions? How confident are you? Who will win and why?

I'm not sure who will win, because I assume the votes are pretty close.

In my opinion the safest option is to stay. Leaving might be detrimental both for the British economy and for the EU's economy in general.
-3.5 million jobs can be lost if they leave the EU.
-The UK exports a bunch of its products to other countries in the EU, leaving it means that they'll have to pay extra taxes.
-British families enjoy lower mobile phone roaming charges, lower credit card fees, cheaper flights and proper compensation when flights are delayed or cancelled. These sorts of benefits could not be achieved by Britain alone. Not to mention that it's easier to travel when another country is in the EU as well.
-1.4 million British people live abroad in the EU. More than 14,500 UK students took part in the European Union"s Erasmus student exchange scheme in 2012-13. Driving licences issued in the UK are valid throughout the EU.
-The EU also helps to consolidate the countries in it.
-Britain has a higher influence on the world if it remains in the EU.
-The European Arrest Warrant replaced long extradition procedures and enables the UK to extradite criminals wanted in other EU countries, and bring to justice criminals wanted in the UK who are hiding in other EU countries (therefore helping with fighting crime)
-The UK is the second largest beneficiary of EU research funds, and the British Government expects future EU research funding to constitute a vital source of income for our world-leading universities and companies.

Hopefully, the Brits will be sane enough to vote remain. Most people who want to vote leave base their argument on the fact that it will stop immigration. WRONG. If you think it will stop immigration, you're absolutely delusional. Immigration will be there no matter what.
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bballcrook21
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6/23/2016 7:44:56 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/23/2016 3:32:21 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The voting for the UK's referendum on its EU membership begins in roughly 2.5 hours.

Huff Post's polling aggregator puts the two campaigns (Remain and Leave) only 0.1% apart, with Leave ahead. In other words, it is neck-and-neck. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Jo Cox's death has recently shook up the campaign as well, as has a last minute, if reluctant push, from Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn in favor of Remain.

What are your predictions? How confident are you? Who will win and why?

They won't leave. The powers at be wouldn't allow it, although London is currently being flooded with rain and I don't think the remain supporters will show up when most of them are cucks anyway.
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Chloe8
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6/24/2016 12:35:34 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/23/2016 3:32:21 AM, bsh1 wrote:
The voting for the UK's referendum on its EU membership begins in roughly 2.5 hours.

Huff Post's polling aggregator puts the two campaigns (Remain and Leave) only 0.1% apart, with Leave ahead. In other words, it is neck-and-neck. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Jo Cox's death has recently shook up the campaign as well, as has a last minute, if reluctant push, from Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn in favor of Remain.

What are your predictions? How confident are you? Who will win and why?

It looks like working class labour voters are going to swing the result to leave. Lower turnout from remain supporters and heavy rain in pro remain London also look to be factors. Having said that remain is still the bookmakers favourite.
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Chloe8
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6/24/2016 1:16:28 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/24/2016 12:39:51 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
If Britain leaves, it will give another talking point to Trump promoting Nationalism and self-determination.

It looks like we are going to leave! Bookmakers now have leave as favourites.
"I don't need experience.to knock you out. I'm a man. that's all I need to beat you and any woman."

Fatihah, in his delusion that he could knock out any woman while bragging about being able to knock me out. An example of 7th century Islamic thinking inspired by his hero the paedophile Muhammad.
Greyparrot
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6/24/2016 1:21:22 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/24/2016 1:16:28 AM, Chloe8 wrote:
At 6/24/2016 12:39:51 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
If Britain leaves, it will give another talking point to Trump promoting Nationalism and self-determination.

It looks like we are going to leave! Bookmakers now have leave as favourites.

That's a huge deal for Trump!