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UK Snap Election Predictions

bsh1
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6/25/2016 6:51:37 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
So, I was talking with Chris about what might happen in a UK snap election. Admittedly, all of this is wild forecasting, and I don't assert it with any high degree of confidence, but it's interesting. I posted some of my comments below (I have Chris's okay to post this). What do you think might happen in such an election?

"Also, Farage's profile has been raised massively over the last two years, both with the general election and with this referendum. That gives him added clout going into a snap contest."

"UKIP is *extremely* well positioned to win in places like Sunderland, which were traditional Labour strongholds which voted leave. UKIP could siphon votes off from Labour and the Tories to eek out a plurality. UKIP could also win seats in ridings with tight contests, where the threshold for victory is low because of the multi-directional split."

"In this election, Labour 'Leave' voters chose to prioritize issues of immigration and sovereignty OVER issues of NHS stability and the common market. UKIP's strengths are the former two, and Labour's the latter two. If those voters really are making that prioritization, then they may very well go to UKIP. It is not disanalogous to how Trump is winning blue collar white who used to vote blue."

"The Lib Dems were massively pro-Remain. They can easily make a case to Labour voters furious with Corbyn that they are the best advocates of their interests. I think the party that stands to lose the most is Labour. I think Labour will lose--not gain--seats."
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Chloe8
Posts: 2,614
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6/25/2016 7:47:09 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/25/2016 6:51:37 AM, bsh1 wrote:
So, I was talking with Chris about what might happen in a UK snap election. Admittedly, all of this is wild forecasting, and I don't assert it with any high degree of confidence, but it's interesting. I posted some of my comments below (I have Chris's okay to post this). What do you think might happen in such an election?

"Also, Farage's profile has been raised massively over the last two years, both with the general election and with this referendum. That gives him added clout going into a snap contest."

"UKIP is *extremely* well positioned to win in places like Sunderland, which were traditional Labour strongholds which voted leave. UKIP could siphon votes off from Labour and the Tories to eek out a plurality. UKIP could also win seats in ridings with tight contests, where the threshold for victory is low because of the multi-directional split."

"In this election, Labour 'Leave' voters chose to prioritize issues of immigration and sovereignty OVER issues of NHS stability and the common market. UKIP's strengths are the former two, and Labour's the latter two. If those voters really are making that prioritization, then they may very well go to UKIP. It is not disanalogous to how Trump is winning blue collar white who used to vote blue."

"The Lib Dems were massively pro-Remain. They can easily make a case to Labour voters furious with Corbyn that they are the best advocates of their interests. I think the party that stands to lose the most is Labour. I think Labour will lose--not gain--seats."

I agree Corbyn appears a weak and indecisive leader who is open to losing seats. If the conservative party choose a leave campaigner such as Boris Johnson I think most of the UKIP vote will actually go to the Conservative party. Despite what most Americans seem to believe Garage and UKIP have no electoral prospects and the conservative party has now moved in the ideological direction of UKIP giving voters little reason to vote UKIP rather than conservative. Maybe UKIP could pick up a few seats off Labour but to be honest I think it's unlikely. In my opinion UKIP has achieved its objective as a party which is by all means an incredible achievement. It was created by euro skeptics on the right wing of the conservative party to try and get the UK out of the EU and move the conservative party to the right. It's achieved that goal so I would not be surprised if it fizzled out as a sing force in Britain.

I predict a snap election would see the conservative party gain 40 Seats, Labour lose 50 and the Lib dems gain 10. The SNP will hold all their seats.
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Skepsikyma
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6/25/2016 11:09:56 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/25/2016 6:51:37 AM, bsh1 wrote:
So, I was talking with Chris about what might happen in a UK snap election. Admittedly, all of this is wild forecasting, and I don't assert it with any high degree of confidence, but it's interesting. I posted some of my comments below (I have Chris's okay to post this). What do you think might happen in such an election?

"Also, Farage's profile has been raised massively over the last two years, both with the general election and with this referendum. That gives him added clout going into a snap contest."

"UKIP is *extremely* well positioned to win in places like Sunderland, which were traditional Labour strongholds which voted leave. UKIP could siphon votes off from Labour and the Tories to eek out a plurality. UKIP could also win seats in ridings with tight contests, where the threshold for victory is low because of the multi-directional split."

"In this election, Labour 'Leave' voters chose to prioritize issues of immigration and sovereignty OVER issues of NHS stability and the common market. UKIP's strengths are the former two, and Labour's the latter two. If those voters really are making that prioritization, then they may very well go to UKIP. It is not disanalogous to how Trump is winning blue collar white who used to vote blue."

"The Lib Dems were massively pro-Remain. They can easily make a case to Labour voters furious with Corbyn that they are the best advocates of their interests. I think the party that stands to lose the most is Labour. I think Labour will lose--not gain--seats."

Labour is in a similar position to that of the Republican party: they are out of touch with their base, and tried to tell their base what to believe instead of the other way around. Corbyn was more intelligent than much of the Labour leadership, and tried to walk a middle road, but now the morons are crucifying him and pretty much guaranteeing that their party will feed the ravens during the Brexit fallout. Chris is right that they will bleed supporters to both their left and their right; their message is too diluted, and their base too fragmentary to remain viable for long.

Thankfully, this will increase the influence of UKIP while also putting immense pressure on labor unions to switch their immigration stances to more more closely follow the hardline right. The same thing is happening hear in the US; unions are going to have an ugly, ugly election as they ignore what their constituent workers actually believe and attempt to jam the Democratic party line down their throat. Smart unions supported Bernie in the primaries, and might survive the grumblings. Those who supported Hillary full hilt will have a reckoning on their hands.
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1harderthanyouthink
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6/25/2016 10:58:41 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/25/2016 11:09:56 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 6/25/2016 6:51:37 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Labour is in a similar position to that of the Republican party: they are out of touch with their base, and tried to tell their base what to believe instead of the other way around. Corbyn was more intelligent than much of the Labour leadership, and tried to walk a middle road, but now the morons are crucifying him and pretty much guaranteeing that their party will feed the ravens during the Brexit fallout. Chris is right that they will bleed supporters to both their left and their right; their message is too diluted, and their base too fragmentary to remain viable for long.

I didn't say that they will bleed supporters.

Thankfully, this will increase the influence of UKIP while also putting immense pressure on labor unions to switch their immigration stances to more more closely follow the hardline right. The same thing is happening hear in the US; unions are going to have an ugly, ugly election as they ignore what their constituent workers actually believe and attempt to jam the Democratic party line down their throat. Smart unions supported Bernie in the primaries, and might survive the grumblings. Those who supported Hillary full hilt will have a reckoning on their hands.

I don't think it's going to be an easy thing to predict - and my main response to Labour voters going for UKIP is...well - you're telling me they're swinging hard right. At least with Corbyn as the leader, I don't think they'll lose any leftist supporters or those Labour strongholds that voted Leave because he walked that road.
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BrendanD19
Posts: 2,050
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6/26/2016 12:22:12 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 6/25/2016 6:51:37 AM, bsh1 wrote:
So, I was talking with Chris about what might happen in a UK snap election. Admittedly, all of this is wild forecasting, and I don't assert it with any high degree of confidence, but it's interesting. I posted some of my comments below (I have Chris's okay to post this). What do you think might happen in such an election?

"Also, Farage's profile has been raised massively over the last two years, both with the general election and with this referendum. That gives him added clout going into a snap contest."

"UKIP is *extremely* well positioned to win in places like Sunderland, which were traditional Labour strongholds which voted leave. UKIP could siphon votes off from Labour and the Tories to eek out a plurality. UKIP could also win seats in ridings with tight contests, where the threshold for victory is low because of the multi-directional split."

"In this election, Labour 'Leave' voters chose to prioritize issues of immigration and sovereignty OVER issues of NHS stability and the common market. UKIP's strengths are the former two, and Labour's the latter two. If those voters really are making that prioritization, then they may very well go to UKIP. It is not disanalogous to how Trump is winning blue collar white who used to vote blue."

"The Lib Dems were massively pro-Remain. They can easily make a case to Labour voters furious with Corbyn that they are the best advocates of their interests. I think the party that stands to lose the most is Labour. I think Labour will lose--not gain--seats."

I think there will be a snap election in the next 12 months, and I think Labour will gain not lose, because they will focus on increasing turnout and focus on working class and young people. I think SNP will lose a few seats, but not many, and I think Labour will target seats in Scotland that are more likely to flip. And as long as Labour's manifesto is a left wing rather than that centrist BS they've been running on since 1997.
I sincerely doubt that UKIP will make major gains. Maybe a couple seats, but not very many. The biggest point of their platform was Brexit, but now that Brexit is won, their main selling point is gone. And if Boris wins Tory leader, many UKIP voters will just vote Tory.
I also suspect the Greens will make some gains given their current trajectory, especially in the South, and I think the Greens and Labour should work together to avoid conflict and not run against each other in close seats where one party has an advantage. Caroline Lucas and Jeremy Corbyn are close friends so I think this could happen.
Are the LibDems still relevant? I mean they were evicerated in the last election.