Total Posts:13|Showing Posts:1-13
Jump to topic:

Presidential Market

slo1
Posts: 4,308
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/25/2016 5:39:54 PM
Posted: 4 months ago
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu...

I like to follow the Iowa electronic market to see how news trends turn into monetary trends in the market. A few items:

1. Trump got his RNC boost as expected.
2. InterestinglyTrump was slowly closing the gap weeks prior to the RNC when he went into a relatively quiet period.

Here is what to watch for.

1. Hillary will get a post DNC boost. (They always do)

- how far will that boost separate the gap again?
- 4 weeks after DNC how does the gap between Hillary and Trump settle.

By that time any new trend with Bernie voters should be known.
slo1
Posts: 4,308
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/26/2016 12:24:28 PM
Posted: 4 months ago
At 7/25/2016 5:39:54 PM, slo1 wrote:
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu...

I like to follow the Iowa electronic market to see how news trends turn into monetary trends in the market. A few items:

1. Trump got his RNC boost as expected.
2. InterestinglyTrump was slowly closing the gap weeks prior to the RNC when he went into a relatively quiet period.

Here is what to watch for.

1. Hillary will get a post DNC boost. (They always do)

- how far will that boost separate the gap again?
- 4 weeks after DNC how does the gap between Hillary and Trump settle.

By that time any new trend with Bernie voters should be known.

Watch to see a bounce today to see if the concerns of fractured dem party were resolved or not.
slo1
Posts: 4,308
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/27/2016 3:47:02 PM
Posted: 4 months ago
At 7/26/2016 12:24:28 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 7/25/2016 5:39:54 PM, slo1 wrote:
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu...

I like to follow the Iowa electronic market to see how news trends turn into monetary trends in the market. A few items:

1. Trump got his RNC boost as expected.
2. InterestinglyTrump was slowly closing the gap weeks prior to the RNC when he went into a relatively quiet period.

Here is what to watch for.

1. Hillary will get a post DNC boost. (They always do)

- how far will that boost separate the gap again?
- 4 weeks after DNC how does the gap between Hillary and Trump settle.

By that time any new trend with Bernie voters should be known.

Watch to see a bounce today to see if the concerns of fractured dem party were resolved or not.

Almost one half of post RNC boost and DNC Bernie scandle wiped after the first day of DNC. One day does not amount to much, but if this is the trend it could be argued that the DNC scandle provided a catharsis allowing Bernie supporters voice to be heard or at least felt they were heard on national level. In turn they can look to Hillary.

How much more traction can Trump get on Benghazi, Clinton email, and DNC scandle? The latter looks to be fleeting.
RookieApologist
Posts: 469
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/27/2016 4:41:30 PM
Posted: 4 months ago
At 7/27/2016 3:47:02 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 7/26/2016 12:24:28 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 7/25/2016 5:39:54 PM, slo1 wrote:
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu...

I like to follow the Iowa electronic market to see how news trends turn into monetary trends in the market. A few items:

1. Trump got his RNC boost as expected.
2. InterestinglyTrump was slowly closing the gap weeks prior to the RNC when he went into a relatively quiet period.

Here is what to watch for.

1. Hillary will get a post DNC boost. (They always do)

- how far will that boost separate the gap again?
- 4 weeks after DNC how does the gap between Hillary and Trump settle.

By that time any new trend with Bernie voters should be known.

Watch to see a bounce today to see if the concerns of fractured dem party were resolved or not.

Almost one half of post RNC boost and DNC Bernie scandle wiped after the first day of DNC. One day does not amount to much, but if this is the trend it could be argued that the DNC scandle provided a catharsis allowing Bernie supporters voice to be heard or at least felt they were heard on national level. In turn they can look to Hillary.

How much more traction can Trump get on Benghazi, Clinton email, and DNC scandle? The latter looks to be fleeting.

Agreed. But he can continue to focus on her corruption, and I can see the Clinton foundation being further exposed and added to the mix. However, he simply must do a better job of exposing liberal hypocrisy for what it truly is...and of course avoid stepping on his tongue every chance he gets, something he has yet to show he can accomplish.
slo1
Posts: 4,308
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 12:15:16 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
Very interesting price action. It is very evident that the actions against Hillary have been effective in the past two weeks.

The recent health issues yesterday will allow Trump's campaign to double down on her health. If you watch the news shows it is evident that Trump has his campaign speaking on his behalf in mass.

The main tactic is to not address the questions, but rather deflect to Hillary. There were few exceptions such as Giuliani vouching for Trump that he is no longer a birther.

Hillary on the other hand seems ineffective. Her attacks on Trump's supporters were largely perceived as negative, the lesson being that a racist never thinks he is a racist.

It seems to me that political campaigns need to bring in psychologists who actually test approaches to sway the categories of people they are targeting.

Lastly, via the chart the fall of Hillary in price has not necessarily helped Trump as his price has fallen. He has not fallen as far though.

I should remind people that markets, while fallible as seen in Brexit markets, are generally more accurate than polls, especially 100 days out when polls are worthless. With that said we are well within 100 days out.

Trump still has to make some epic advances. If Hillary is not able to win the debates, that could be what it takes for Trump to win.
xus00HAY
Posts: 1,372
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 12:48:44 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
"It seems to me that political campaigns need to bring in psychologists who actually test approaches to sway the categories of people they are targeting."
It seems that the Trump campaign brought in psychologists over a year ago, and they thought up a plan to stop Hillary from appearing presidential. She looks like someone we have to vote for because we need a token female president to prove we don't discriminate.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 2:17:05 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
Trump still has to make some epic advances. If Hillary is not able to win the debates, that could be what it takes for Trump to win.

These will be interesting to watch. Clinton is a wonk at heart. She knows her stuff, but has terrible presentation. Trump knows nothing, but shows better. It was visible at the CIC forum. Trump turned in an objectively bad performance for anyone watching for substance, but seemed to score marks with the same group that love him to know nothing.
slo1
Posts: 4,308
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/13/2016 2:19:13 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/12/2016 2:17:05 PM, TBR wrote:
Trump still has to make some epic advances. If Hillary is not able to win the debates, that could be what it takes for Trump to win.

These will be interesting to watch. Clinton is a wonk at heart. She knows her stuff, but has terrible presentation. Trump knows nothing, but shows better. It was visible at the CIC forum. Trump turned in an objectively bad performance for anyone watching for substance, but seemed to score marks with the same group that love him to know nothing.

I can't wait to see that first debate. I still don't know what to think about Trump's style versus Hillary's. I am stumped to even make a prediction. I have to say, If I were Hillary and he says the words "Lying Hillary", I would have a well crafted message in response that doesn't attack him as a liar at that moment to rise above the pettiness.

She needs to understand there is a huge difference between saying 1/2 Trump supporters are slime versus quoting some vitriol Trump supporters are writing on line and letting people come to their own conclusion. It those types of subtleties that will have her rise above his level in a very pronounced way.
Quadrunner
Posts: 1,028
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/13/2016 4:41:50 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/13/2016 2:19:13 AM, slo1 wrote:
At 9/12/2016 2:17:05 PM, TBR wrote:
Trump still has to make some epic advances. If Hillary is not able to win the debates, that could be what it takes for Trump to win.

These will be interesting to watch. Clinton is a wonk at heart. She knows her stuff, but has terrible presentation. Trump knows nothing, but shows better. It was visible at the CIC forum. Trump turned in an objectively bad performance for anyone watching for substance, but seemed to score marks with the same group that love him to know nothing.

I can't wait to see that first debate. I still don't know what to think about Trump's style versus Hillary's. I am stumped to even make a prediction. I have to say, If I were Hillary and he says the words "Lying Hillary", I would have a well crafted message in response that doesn't attack him as a liar at that moment to rise above the pettiness.

She needs to understand there is a huge difference between saying 1/2 Trump supporters are slime versus quoting some vitriol Trump supporters are writing on line and letting people come to their own conclusion. It those types of subtleties that will have her rise above his level in a very pronounced way.

I personally viewed that as a long needed statement in American Politics, and on an emotional level it seemed more sincere because of the fact that it is proven through history to be a bad political move to insult potential voters. Much campaigning is centered around blaming the government, and its elected officials, but people rarely acknowledge that the majority of the country is literally supporting the officials they are blaming. No one wants to be "that guy" but in the end the responsibility is ultimately on my shoulders not unlike a manager hiring someone to fill the position needed.

If you ever want to see change, the only actual control you have is over yourself, and so that's the first place you should look for any problems. A challenge to elect based on substantial job credentials over my personal problems is not a bad thing to hear every once and awhile, and though I don't have a history nor future plans of supporting Hillary Clinton, that is one statement I'll remember in a positive light regardless of how others portray it.
Wisdom is found where the wise seek it.
Quadrunner
Posts: 1,028
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/13/2016 4:51:52 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/13/2016 4:41:50 PM, Quadrunner wrote:
At 9/13/2016 2:19:13 AM, slo1 wrote:
At 9/12/2016 2:17:05 PM, TBR wrote:
Trump still has to make some epic advances. If Hillary is not able to win the debates, that could be what it takes for Trump to win.

These will be interesting to watch. Clinton is a wonk at heart. She knows her stuff, but has terrible presentation. Trump knows nothing, but shows better. It was visible at the CIC forum. Trump turned in an objectively bad performance for anyone watching for substance, but seemed to score marks with the same group that love him to know nothing.

I can't wait to see that first debate. I still don't know what to think about Trump's style versus Hillary's. I am stumped to even make a prediction. I have to say, If I were Hillary and he says the words "Lying Hillary", I would have a well crafted message in response that doesn't attack him as a liar at that moment to rise above the pettiness.

She needs to understand there is a huge difference between saying 1/2 Trump supporters are slime versus quoting some vitriol Trump supporters are writing on line and letting people come to their own conclusion. It those types of subtleties that will have her rise above his level in a very pronounced way.

I personally viewed that as a long needed statement in American Politics, and on an emotional level it seemed more sincere because of the fact that it is proven through history to be a bad political move to insult potential voters. Much campaigning is centered around blaming the government, and its elected officials, but people rarely acknowledge that the majority of the country is literally supporting the officials they are blaming. No one wants to be "that guy" but in the end the responsibility is ultimately on my shoulders not unlike a manager hiring someone to fill the position needed.

If you ever want to see change, the only actual control you have is over yourself, and so that's the first place you should look for any problems. A challenge to elect based on substantial job credentials over my personal problems is not a bad thing to hear every once and awhile, and though I don't have a history nor future plans of supporting Hillary Clinton, that is one statement I'll remember in a positive light regardless of how others portray it.

Another thing to remember is that unlike Trump, Hillary has a loyal voter base established already. She doesn't need his voters. It would benefit her to lift up some of the underdogs, and let Trump's "America has Problems" based campaign crumble to other options that can show "America has Potential". If Trump supporters are really voting for him because they are simply against established government policy, there is nothing holding them from going somewhere else if he doesn't provide more substance in his campaign. To me, Bernie Sanders was the only thing between Hillary and the Presidency, and I still hold that view, so long as she just keeps her campaign stable, and smaller parties do not gain more momentum. Though if there was ever a time for the underdog to rise up, it would be in this election.
Wisdom is found where the wise seek it.