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The Obama Strategem?

Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,086
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8/3/2016 4:27:30 PM
Posted: 4 months ago
The regime in Beijing, obviously, has imperialist expansion as a long-term objective. Russia isn't really in a position to oppose a united NATO which is willing to use force, and it likely won't ever be, but it could use a NATO unwillingness to act as an opportunity to invade the Baltics (and maybe some other countries too).

Now, I think we can all agree that the world would be a better place if the regime in Beijing was replaced (by, well, just about anyone) and if the Russian government was replaced by liberal reformers. But obviously the U.S. cannot simply start a war against these regimes. To do so would be regarded in the eyes of the international community (and most Americans, even) as an inexcusable attack on world peace and rule of law. In this scenario, even America's allies might turn against it and side with Russia and China.
At the same time, a strong front in the present will deter Russia and China from acting. Assuming that the regime in Beijing will only fall if defeated in a war against a foreign power (like the US), as time goes by the People's Liberation Army will only continue to modernise and expand its military budget. Experts predict that by 2025 Beijing will be able to feasibly win a regional war against the United States, and with each passing year after this point Beijing would grow more and more capable of winning. In short, if the regime in Beijing isn't taken down sometime in the next 10 years, being able to defeat them after this point will no longer be guaranteed.
The only solution, then, is to subtly goad the regime in Beijing into starting the war, so that the American people and the world will see the U.S. as the righteous side and the regime as the modern face of evil. If the U.S. provokes the Beijing regime through aggressive moves, the U.S. will clearly lose its moral high ground in everyone's eyes. But if the U.S. simply acts passive, weak, and unwilling to use strong action in its dealings with Beijing, the regime will eventually become emboldened to show its true colours and begin its long-awaited campaign of military conquest.

This could possibly be the Obama Stratagem: to act weak so that Beijing will not be deterred and so that it'll start its aggression prematurely, before it's capable of defeating the U.S. military in a full-scale war, at which point the U.S. will, with the backing of the entire world, suddenly spring into action and declare war on China.
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brontoraptor
Posts: 11,685
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8/3/2016 11:57:57 PM
Posted: 4 months ago
At 8/3/2016 4:27:30 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
The regime in Beijing, obviously, has imperialist expansion as a long-term objective. Russia isn't really in a position to oppose a united NATO which is willing to use force, and it likely won't ever be, but it could use a NATO unwillingness to act as an opportunity to invade the Baltics (and maybe some other countries too).

Now, I think we can all agree that the world would be a better place if the regime in Beijing was replaced (by, well, just about anyone) and if the Russian government was replaced by liberal reformers. But obviously the U.S. cannot simply start a war against these regimes. To do so would be regarded in the eyes of the international community (and most Americans, even) as an inexcusable attack on world peace and rule of law. In this scenario, even America's allies might turn against it and side with Russia and China.
At the same time, a strong front in the present will deter Russia and China from acting. Assuming that the regime in Beijing will only fall if defeated in a war against a foreign power (like the US), as time goes by the People's Liberation Army will only continue to modernise and expand its military budget. Experts predict that by 2025 Beijing will be able to feasibly win a regional war against the United States, and with each passing year after this point Beijing would grow more and more capable of winning. In short, if the regime in Beijing isn't taken down sometime in the next 10 years, being able to defeat them after this point will no longer be guaranteed.
The only solution, then, is to subtly goad the regime in Beijing into starting the war, so that the American people and the world will see the U.S. as the righteous side and the regime as the modern face of evil. If the U.S. provokes the Beijing regime through aggressive moves, the U.S. will clearly lose its moral high ground in everyone's eyes. But if the U.S. simply acts passive, weak, and unwilling to use strong action in its dealings with Beijing, the regime will eventually become emboldened to show its true colours and begin its long-awaited campaign of military conquest.

This could possibly be the Obama Stratagem: to act weak so that Beijing will not be deterred and so that it'll start its aggression prematurely, before it's capable of defeating the U.S. military in a full-scale war, at which point the U.S. will, with the backing of the entire world, suddenly spring into action and declare war on China.

Nope. He's just weak. Or did he fake his femininity for 8 years...
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