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Clinton's Convention Bounce has Stayed

bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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8/16/2016 9:17:25 PM
Posted: 3 months ago
It seems like Clinton's convention bounce of 5-10 points in the polls has stayed, which could bode poorly for Trump if this is where the election stabilizes heading into October. For some analysis of a group of recent polls, I'll quote 538:

Clinton's current lead of 4.8 percentage points in these polls is more impressive given that they've had her ahead by only 2.4 percentage points on average over the course of the year. By comparison, Clinton's average lead across all national polls dating back to Nov. 2015 has been about 5 percentage points. In other words, these polls have been a Trump-leaning group--they've had a pro-Trump house effect of 2 to 3 percentage points. So their showing of Clinton with a lead of about 5 percentage points is consistent with her being ahead by 7 to 8 points overall. [1]

According to Huff Post's poll averaging mechanism, Clinton has a lead of 8.5 points over Trump, which is roughly consistent with what she had after the convention (which was in late July). [2] Realclearpolitics puts here average advantage over Trump at around 6.7 points, roughly 7 percent. [3] So, according to each of these groups of experts, Clinton's lead has expanded to around 7-9 points over Trump, which is bad news from him, since the gap between them was far smaller after Trump's convention.

What are your thoughts on this information? Do you think this is where the race will stabilize going into October? Do you think Trump has sufficient time to turn things around? Can he turn them around? Are these averages accurate, in your view? Please contribute your comments and ideas; thanks!

===============

1 - http://fivethirtyeight.com...
2 - http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
3 - http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
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Peepette
Posts: 1,242
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8/16/2016 10:17:27 PM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/16/2016 9:17:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
It seems like Clinton's convention bounce of 5-10 points in the polls has stayed, which could bode poorly for Trump if this is where the election stabilizes heading into October. For some analysis of a group of recent polls, I'll quote 538:

Clinton's current lead of 4.8 percentage points in these polls is more impressive given that they've had her ahead by only 2.4 percentage points on average over the course of the year. By comparison, Clinton's average lead across all national polls dating back to Nov. 2015 has been about 5 percentage points. In other words, these polls have been a Trump-leaning group--they've had a pro-Trump house effect of 2 to 3 percentage points. So their showing of Clinton with a lead of about 5 percentage points is consistent with her being ahead by 7 to 8 points overall. [1]

According to Huff Post's poll averaging mechanism, Clinton has a lead of 8.5 points over Trump, which is roughly consistent with what she had after the convention (which was in late July). [2] Realclearpolitics puts here average advantage over Trump at around 6.7 points, roughly 7 percent. [3] So, according to each of these groups of experts, Clinton's lead has expanded to around 7-9 points over Trump, which is bad news from him, since the gap between them was far smaller after Trump's convention.

What are your thoughts on this information? Do you think this is where the race will stabilize going into October? Do you think Trump has sufficient time to turn things around? Can he turn them around? Are these averages accurate, in your view? Please contribute your comments and ideas; thanks!

===============

1 - http://fivethirtyeight.com...
2 - http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
3 - http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

I don't think Trump will get his act together. He's received the finger wag from the Rep. party to start behaving more Presidential and stop shooting off the hip in his speeches. Obama being the founder of ISIS is his latest foible; most likely there will be more. I can't really see Trump lasting the duration if the Rep. party members keep refusing to endorse him. Also, Hillary is going to get squeezed even more. Julian Assage is certainly out to get her with more DNC and Libya emails. I would not be surprised if they both disengage before November. Who will rise out of the ashes would be anyone's guess. These two people are not the best this country has to offer and I think the public is starting to see it.

http://finance.yahoo.com...
http://www.cnn.com...
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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8/16/2016 11:13:29 PM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/16/2016 9:17:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
It seems like Clinton's convention bounce of 5-10 points in the polls has stayed, which could bode poorly for Trump if this is where the election stabilizes heading into October. For some analysis of a group of recent polls, I'll quote 538:

Clinton's current lead of 4.8 percentage points in these polls is more impressive given that they've had her ahead by only 2.4 percentage points on average over the course of the year. By comparison, Clinton's average lead across all national polls dating back to Nov. 2015 has been about 5 percentage points. In other words, these polls have been a Trump-leaning group--they've had a pro-Trump house effect of 2 to 3 percentage points. So their showing of Clinton with a lead of about 5 percentage points is consistent with her being ahead by 7 to 8 points overall. [1]

According to Huff Post's poll averaging mechanism, Clinton has a lead of 8.5 points over Trump, which is roughly consistent with what she had after the convention (which was in late July). [2] Realclearpolitics puts here average advantage over Trump at around 6.7 points, roughly 7 percent. [3] So, according to each of these groups of experts, Clinton's lead has expanded to around 7-9 points over Trump, which is bad news from him, since the gap between them was far smaller after Trump's convention.

What are your thoughts on this information? Do you think this is where the race will stabilize going into October? Do you think Trump has sufficient time to turn things around? Can he turn them around? Are these averages accurate, in your view? Please contribute your comments and ideas; thanks!

===============

1 - http://fivethirtyeight.com...
2 - http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
3 - http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Trump is in trouble in FL, and is even shakey in TX of all places. Going into September Trump is in dire trouble. This, at this point, will take a huge earth shattering October surprise to fix for him.
bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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8/18/2016 3:24:39 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
Bump
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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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brontoraptor
Posts: 11,685
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8/18/2016 12:51:44 PM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/16/2016 9:17:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
It seems like Clinton's convention bounce of 5-10 points in the polls has stayed, which could bode poorly for Trump if this is where the election stabilizes heading into October. For some analysis of a group of recent polls, I'll quote 538:

Clinton's current lead of 4.8 percentage points in these polls is more impressive given that they've had her ahead by only 2.4 percentage points on average over the course of the year. By comparison, Clinton's average lead across all national polls dating back to Nov. 2015 has been about 5 percentage points. In other words, these polls have been a Trump-leaning group--they've had a pro-Trump house effect of 2 to 3 percentage points. So their showing of Clinton with a lead of about 5 percentage points is consistent with her being ahead by 7 to 8 points overall. [1]

According to Huff Post's poll averaging mechanism, Clinton has a lead of 8.5 points over Trump, which is roughly consistent with what she had after the convention (which was in late July). [2] Realclearpolitics puts here average advantage over Trump at around 6.7 points, roughly 7 percent. [3] So, according to each of these groups of experts, Clinton's lead has expanded to around 7-9 points over Trump, which is bad news from him, since the gap between them was far smaller after Trump's convention.

What are your thoughts on this information? Do you think this is where the race will stabilize going into October? Do you think Trump has sufficient time to turn things around? Can he turn them around? Are these averages accurate, in your view? Please contribute your comments and ideas; thanks!

===============

1 - http://fivethirtyeight.com...
2 - http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
3 - http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Not really.

1)These polls have economic and financial reasons to shift findings.

2)These same polls were sure that Hillary was kicking Obama's butt...
"What Donald Trump is doing is representing the absolute heartbreak, and anger, and frustration at a government gone mad."

http://youtu.be...
MakeSensePeopleDont
Posts: 1,106
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8/18/2016 2:06:53 PM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/16/2016 9:17:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
It seems like Clinton's convention bounce of 5-10 points in the polls has stayed, which could bode poorly for Trump if this is where the election stabilizes heading into October. For some analysis of a group of recent polls, I'll quote 538:

Clinton's current lead of 4.8 percentage points in these polls is more impressive given that they've had her ahead by only 2.4 percentage points on average over the course of the year. By comparison, Clinton's average lead across all national polls dating back to Nov. 2015 has been about 5 percentage points. In other words, these polls have been a Trump-leaning group--they've had a pro-Trump house effect of 2 to 3 percentage points. So their showing of Clinton with a lead of about 5 percentage points is consistent with her being ahead by 7 to 8 points overall. [1]

According to Huff Post's poll averaging mechanism, Clinton has a lead of 8.5 points over Trump, which is roughly consistent with what she had after the convention (which was in late July). [2] Realclearpolitics puts here average advantage over Trump at around 6.7 points, roughly 7 percent. [3] So, according to each of these groups of experts, Clinton's lead has expanded to around 7-9 points over Trump, which is bad news from him, since the gap between them was far smaller after Trump's convention.

What are your thoughts on this information? Do you think this is where the race will stabilize going into October? Do you think Trump has sufficient time to turn things around? Can he turn them around? Are these averages accurate, in your view? Please contribute your comments and ideas; thanks!

===============

1 - http://fivethirtyeight.com...
2 - http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
3 - http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

There are a lot of questions about the legitimacy of a lot of these polls. Some polls are said to be utilizing back-dated data in order to artificially inflate Hillary's numbers, others hold serious doubt due to extremely small sample size, if there is equality in ideologies in the persons being polled; and most importantly, since these polls are in person, on a landline, or on a cell phone via cold call and cold approach methods, there is the VERY real possibility of the polls being skewed due to fears of others hearing Trump has a person's support -- causing verbal and physical actions against the Trump supporter. This is not unreasonable as can be seen by all of the extreme rage fueled protests and unprovoked physical violence against Trump supporters since he announced his candidacy.

An app developer published a question and answer app which asks many questions of the voter which go much deeper than standard polls, and then calculates your responses just as the other polls do. This app polls an average of 100,000 users each day for its data, as opposed to the drastically smaller and less regularly updated data from other polls. Here, check out a brief introduction of the system with the link below, then do some more research on it. I'm still checking it out myself so I'm not currently able to detail its workings yet.

http://www.usatoday.com...
NHN
Posts: 624
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8/18/2016 2:34:40 PM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/16/2016 9:17:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
What are your thoughts on this information? Do you think this is where the race will stabilize going into October?
No. 2016 has been politically unstable, and the Trump campaign is America's Brexit moment. American pollsters are likely to miss what the British did--old, angry, rural whites.

Do you think Trump has sufficient time to turn things around? Can he turn them around?
Yes. Trump will not win a majority of voters, but he doesn't have to in order to win the election, re: Bush, Jr. (https://en.wikipedia.org...).

And as it is very difficult to gauge voter habits in battleground states such as Ohio and Virginia, I am still not convinced that this election is a shoe-in for Clinton.