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Russia-Turkey Reconciliation

Tineric
Posts: 45
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8/23/2016 5:53:38 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
What was praised to become a breakthrough meeting which would get Russia-Turkey relations back to their pre-November 2015 incident times and even better, did not deliver any surprises.
Firstly, the mere fact that Erdogan"s Russia visit comes against a backdrop of rising tensions between Turkey and the West over Ankara"s harsh response to the failed coup attempt and over Turkish approach to Syrian Kurds is very telling. Secondly, it is the first visit Turkish president makes after the failed coup attempt which underlines, among other things, the special relations between the two leaders which they decide to set against the current dissatisfaction of the West with both, Moscow and Ankara.
Besides, Turkey being a NATO member makes this moment quite awkward for the United States. In couple of weeks the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is scheduled to visit Ankara to deliver some important messages or proposals to Erdogan, which makes Washington look quite lagged behind the unfolding changes in Turkey and in its improving relations with Russia.
Some can justly argue that Turkey, being a NATO member, is dependent on Washington and its decisions to some extent, so Ankara will ultimately act in line with NATO"s policies. However, it would be more accurate to say that it is a two-way road, and the U.S. also depends on Turkey especially when it comes to dealing with the Middle East and regional conflicts there. Let"s not forget, that Turkey is NATO"s outpost in the Middle East having the second largest army in the Alliance and playing the role of a buffer between this volatile region and Europe. Besides, Turkey hosts U.S. troops and warplanes at its Incirlik Air Base, an important foothold for the U.S.-led fight against Islamic State terrorists in neighboring Iraq and Syria.
This is why despite being somewhat regionally and globally isolated Turkey still has some room for manoeuvre when it comes to playing on the differences between Russia and the U.S., Russia and Europe.
During the last month Turkish political establishment was sending mixed signals with regard to sensitive foreign policy and security issues which very much indicates that Ankara is testing waters in a complicated regional and international environment. It wants to understand and clarify who will be the easiest partner to negotiate on Syria and issues connected with it (terrorist, refugees flow, Kurds, etc.), so, it has to compromise less.
So, statements made by Putin and Erdogan on restoring Russia-Turkey relations in all spheres should not be perceived as something outstanding. Resumption of strategic projects like Akuyyu nuclear power plant construction in Turkey and Turkish Stream gas pipeline is mutually beneficial for Moscow and Ankara and meets both parties" long-term interests. Lifting Russia"s food embargo and tourist ban on Turkey is also a matter of time. However, as politics often drives economics, Russia received certain leverage over Turkey. Most likely, Moscow will tie restoration of economic relations with Turkey to Ankara"s policy change in Syria.
Nevertheless, big progress on Syria is quite unlikely as both Russia and Turkey have already invested too much in the settlement process to change their positions substantially. However, such technical aspects as pilots' code of conduct and military and air force cooperation to avoid incidents like the one with Russia"s Su-24 in November of 2015 are relatively easy to agree on. Russia's Defense Ministry prepared a package of such documents for Turkey prior to Erdogan"s visit.
Moscow and Ankara will both benefit from restoring bilateral relations. The signals to the west are clear: Moscow demonstrates its successful approach in dealing with a NATO ally while Ankara shows that it can quite easily change its policies and keeps all doors opened. Besides, Moscow is likely to be more assertive with Ankara now, getting more economic levers on Turkey.
desmac
Posts: 5,078
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8/23/2016 6:35:11 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/23/2016 5:53:38 AM, Tineric wrote:
What was praised to become a breakthrough meeting which would get Russia-Turkey relations back to their pre-November 2015 incident times and even better, did not deliver any surprises.
Firstly, the mere fact that Erdogan"s Russia visit comes against a backdrop of rising tensions between Turkey and the West over Ankara"s harsh response to the failed coup attempt and over Turkish approach to Syrian Kurds is very telling. Secondly, it is the first visit Turkish president makes after the failed coup attempt which underlines, among other things, the special relations between the two leaders which they decide to set against the current dissatisfaction of the West with both, Moscow and Ankara.
Besides, Turkey being a NATO member makes this moment quite awkward for the United States. In couple of weeks the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is scheduled to visit Ankara to deliver some important messages or proposals to Erdogan, which makes Washington look quite lagged behind the unfolding changes in Turkey and in its improving relations with Russia.
Some can justly argue that Turkey, being a NATO member, is dependent on Washington and its decisions to some extent, so Ankara will ultimately act in line with NATO"s policies. However, it would be more accurate to say that it is a two-way road, and the U.S. also depends on Turkey especially when it comes to dealing with the Middle East and regional conflicts there. Let"s not forget, that Turkey is NATO"s outpost in the Middle East having the second largest army in the Alliance and playing the role of a buffer between this volatile region and Europe. Besides, Turkey hosts U.S. troops and warplanes at its Incirlik Air Base, an important foothold for the U.S.-led fight against Islamic State terrorists in neighboring Iraq and Syria.
This is why despite being somewhat regionally and globally isolated Turkey still has some room for manoeuvre when it comes to playing on the differences between Russia and the U.S., Russia and Europe.
During the last month Turkish political establishment was sending mixed signals with regard to sensitive foreign policy and security issues which very much indicates that Ankara is testing waters in a complicated regional and international environment. It wants to understand and clarify who will be the easiest partner to negotiate on Syria and issues connected with it (terrorist, refugees flow, Kurds, etc.), so, it has to compromise less.
So, statements made by Putin and Erdogan on restoring Russia-Turkey relations in all spheres should not be perceived as something outstanding. Resumption of strategic projects like Akuyyu nuclear power plant construction in Turkey and Turkish Stream gas pipeline is mutually beneficial for Moscow and Ankara and meets both parties" long-term interests. Lifting Russia"s food embargo and tourist ban on Turkey is also a matter of time. However, as politics often drives economics, Russia received certain leverage over Turkey. Most likely, Moscow will tie restoration of economic relations with Turkey to Ankara"s policy change in Syria.
Nevertheless, big progress on Syria is quite unlikely as both Russia and Turkey have already invested too much in the settlement process to change their positions substantially. However, such technical aspects as pilots' code of conduct and military and air force cooperation to avoid incidents like the one with Russia"s Su-24 in November of 2015 are relatively easy to agree on. Russia's Defense Ministry prepared a package of such documents for Turkey prior to Erdogan"s visit.
Moscow and Ankara will both benefit from restoring bilateral relations. The signals to the west are clear: Moscow demonstrates its successful approach in dealing with a NATO ally while Ankara shows that it can quite easily change its policies and keeps all doors opened. Besides, Moscow is likely to be more assertive with Ankara now, getting more economic levers on Turkey.

Today's Message from Moscow.
NHN
Posts: 624
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8/23/2016 6:58:03 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/23/2016 6:35:11 AM, desmac wrote:
Today's Message from Moscow.
This.

Say, Desmac, how many FSB bots/trolls/herpaderps do we have on this site? Is it the regular infestation of 1-in-20 or is there an overrepresentation?
desmac
Posts: 5,078
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8/23/2016 7:49:31 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/23/2016 6:58:03 AM, NHN wrote:
At 8/23/2016 6:35:11 AM, desmac wrote:
Today's Message from Moscow.
This.

Say, Desmac, how many FSB bots/trolls/herpaderps do we have on this site? Is it the regular infestation of 1-in-20 or is there an overrepresentation?

Very hard to say. This one, Tineric, just issues one or two Pravda press releases per day. Others pop up with a new ID, fire off a few comments then disappear.

I am not active on many other sites, So I don.t know if DDO has more than its fair share of pests.
NHN
Posts: 624
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8/23/2016 8:26:57 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/23/2016 7:49:31 AM, desmac wrote:
Very hard to say. This one, Tineric, just issues one or two Pravda press releases per day. Others pop up with a new ID, fire off a few comments then disappear.
I am not active on many other sites, So I don.t know if DDO has more than its fair share of pests.
Fair enough. I've only been on for a few days, but DDO seems to be almost as attractive as the commentary boxes on online news sites. These FSB gnats are drawn to the alt-right Trumpmosphere like flies to ... "honey." And as they misuse grammar in like fashion, the two are often hard to tell apart.

By the way, the force is strong in this one (http://www.debate.org...) as well.