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Blade-of-Truth
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8/30/2016 4:07:32 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
A few weeks ago N. Korea declared war on America... in reality they are saying that we declared war on them, and in effect they cut the final line of communication between us. Now, obviously we'd crush them if they actually put their money where their mouth is, but I'm actually concerned about one factor - China. Clearly China doesn't agree with the notion of us having control over North Korean territory (since that means we'd have bases literally next door), and I'm pretty sure N. Korea would try to send nukes before that happened, but what would China do if we actually did go to war with N. Korea?

Would they back N. Korea, or would they back us? Would we even get involved or would we let S. Korea handle the ground war?

What about Russia, would they get behind China or US if it was a war between our two nations?
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Blade-of-Truth
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8/30/2016 4:13:01 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/30/2016 4:09:01 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
China would crush us.

I'd agree in terms of their ground game, they have a standing army that vastly outnumbers our own. I think that the amount of women alone in their army outnumbers ours or something wild like that. But what about every other factor or our alternative weaponry?

The only reason I ask is because I don't see their ground army realistically breaching our borders. So I'm inclined to think the battle would be elsewhere or take place in a non-ground form.
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Blade-of-Truth
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8/30/2016 4:13:15 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/30/2016 4:09:40 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
And Russia will sit and watch if Hillary is in office.

That's true...
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PetersSmith
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8/30/2016 4:28:04 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/30/2016 4:07:32 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
A few weeks ago N. Korea declared war on America... in reality they are saying that we declared war on them, and in effect they cut the final line of communication between us. Now, obviously we'd crush them if they actually put their money where their mouth is, but I'm actually concerned about one factor - China. Clearly China doesn't agree with the notion of us having control over North Korean territory (since that means we'd have bases literally next door), and I'm pretty sure N. Korea would try to send nukes before that happened, but what would China do if we actually did go to war with N. Korea?

Would they back N. Korea, or would they back us? Would we even get involved or would we let S. Korea handle the ground war?

What about Russia, would they get behind China or US if it was a war between our two nations?

I don't think China would support North Korea, especially if North Korea strikes first. North Korea can be considered a rouge state, and what they're doing has received international condemnation, even by China itself (such as back in January http://www.nytimes.com...). If China backs them up, the international community would absolutely condemn them (http://www.scmp.com...). Also, only 20% of China's populace view NK positively (not that that really matters for China though). If China doesn't defend them, Russia would definitely not bother. Backing us, however, is unlikely. China wouldn't want a war unless they can't find a good excuse.
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Death23
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8/30/2016 5:13:11 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/30/2016 4:07:32 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
A few weeks ago N. Korea declared war on America... in reality they are saying that we declared war on them, and in effect they cut the final line of communication between us. Now, obviously we'd crush them if they actually put their money where their mouth is, but I'm actually concerned about one factor - China. Clearly China doesn't agree with the notion of us having control over North Korean territory (since that means we'd have bases literally next door), and I'm pretty sure N. Korea would try to send nukes before that happened, but what would China do if we actually did go to war with N. Korea?

Would they back N. Korea, or would they back us? Would we even get involved or would we let S. Korea handle the ground war?

What about Russia, would they get behind China or US if it was a war between our two nations?

I would imagine that what China would do would depend on the circumstances leading up to the war and the progress of the war. Last time the Chinese intervened when the North Koreans had their backs against the wall.
Vox_Veritas
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8/30/2016 11:16:35 PM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/30/2016 4:07:32 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
A few weeks ago N. Korea declared war on America... in reality they are saying that we declared war on them, and in effect they cut the final line of communication between us. Now, obviously we'd crush them if they actually put their money where their mouth is, but I'm actually concerned about one factor - China. Clearly China doesn't agree with the notion of us having control over North Korean territory (since that means we'd have bases literally next door), and I'm pretty sure N. Korea would try to send nukes before that happened, but what would China do if we actually did go to war with N. Korea?

Would they back N. Korea, or would they back us? Would we even get involved or would we let S. Korea handle the ground war?

What about Russia, would they get behind China or US if it was a war between our two nations?

According to one report, until about the year 2025 the U.S. would be almost assured to win in any conflict against China.
If North Korea attacked the South, then South Korea would definitely fight back and Japan would likely join the war on our side against North Korea.
I think that in the end the Sino-DPRK alliance would be balanced out by Japan and South Korea, to say nothing of our other allies. Provided that the U.S. and its allies actually had the will to fight, they'd ultimately win.
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Vox_Veritas
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8/30/2016 11:18:06 PM
Posted: 3 months ago
That being said, war with North Korea likely won't break out any time in the next 365 days.
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Blade-of-Truth
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8/31/2016 7:41:03 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/30/2016 4:28:04 AM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 8/30/2016 4:07:32 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
A few weeks ago N. Korea declared war on America... in reality they are saying that we declared war on them, and in effect they cut the final line of communication between us. Now, obviously we'd crush them if they actually put their money where their mouth is, but I'm actually concerned about one factor - China. Clearly China doesn't agree with the notion of us having control over North Korean territory (since that means we'd have bases literally next door), and I'm pretty sure N. Korea would try to send nukes before that happened, but what would China do if we actually did go to war with N. Korea?

Would they back N. Korea, or would they back us? Would we even get involved or would we let S. Korea handle the ground war?

What about Russia, would they get behind China or US if it was a war between our two nations?

I don't think China would support North Korea, especially if North Korea strikes first. North Korea can be considered a rouge state, and what they're doing has received international condemnation, even by China itself (such as back in January http://www.nytimes.com...). If China backs them up, the international community would absolutely condemn them (http://www.scmp.com...). Also, only 20% of China's populace view NK positively (not that that really matters for China though). If China doesn't defend them, Russia would definitely not bother. Backing us, however, is unlikely. China wouldn't want a war unless they can't find a good excuse.

If there's one thing I enjoy about you, it's that you source your points well. Good response though, and the fact that only 20% of the chinese population views NK positively is interesting. What sparked this inquiry for me was the recent news that South Korea began another round of military drills (the largest ever) with American forces (among several other nations) with the aim of maintaining their readiness against North Korean aggression. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr...

Based on your points though, I'd agree that they, most likely, wouldn't join in.
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Blade-of-Truth
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8/31/2016 7:52:13 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/30/2016 5:13:11 AM, Death23 wrote:
At 8/30/2016 4:07:32 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
A few weeks ago N. Korea declared war on America... in reality they are saying that we declared war on them, and in effect they cut the final line of communication between us. Now, obviously we'd crush them if they actually put their money where their mouth is, but I'm actually concerned about one factor - China. Clearly China doesn't agree with the notion of us having control over North Korean territory (since that means we'd have bases literally next door), and I'm pretty sure N. Korea would try to send nukes before that happened, but what would China do if we actually did go to war with N. Korea?

Would they back N. Korea, or would they back us? Would we even get involved or would we let S. Korea handle the ground war?

What about Russia, would they get behind China or US if it was a war between our two nations?

I would imagine that what China would do would depend on the circumstances leading up to the war and the progress of the war. Last time the Chinese intervened when the North Koreans had their backs against the wall.

Yeah but their intervention is what caused us to start losing, and ultimately gave us an 'unsatisfactory result' in that conflict overall. I do agree, and others have pointed this out as well, that their intervention would depend on the circumstances. Honestly though, could you ever see China being okay with an American controlled peninsula?

The only solution I'd see would be (post-war) for America to allow China to annex N.Korea into their own territory, seeing as how China would probably still want that buffer zone between American controlled territory and Beijing.
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imabench
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8/31/2016 7:54:14 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/30/2016 4:07:32 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
A few weeks ago N. Korea declared war on America... in reality they are saying that we declared war on them, and in effect they cut the final line of communication between us. Now, obviously we'd crush them if they actually put their money where their mouth is, but I'm actually concerned about one factor - China. Clearly China doesn't agree with the notion of us having control over North Korean territory (since that means we'd have bases literally next door), and I'm pretty sure N. Korea would try to send nukes before that happened, but what would China do if we actually did go to war with N. Korea?

Would they back N. Korea, or would they back us? Would we even get involved or would we let S. Korea handle the ground war?

What about Russia, would they get behind China or US if it was a war between our two nations?

I could see one or maybe even both of them funneling money to North Korea (China far more likely than Russia) but I doubt that either side treats North Korea the same way that the US treats the UK or Israel as an indispensable ally.... When the US invaded Vietnam a decade and a half or so after Korea, China and Russia again only gave money and weapons to the vietnamese to help them fight, rather then openly enter the war head on.
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Blade-of-Truth
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8/31/2016 7:55:17 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/30/2016 11:16:35 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 8/30/2016 4:07:32 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
A few weeks ago N. Korea declared war on America... in reality they are saying that we declared war on them, and in effect they cut the final line of communication between us. Now, obviously we'd crush them if they actually put their money where their mouth is, but I'm actually concerned about one factor - China. Clearly China doesn't agree with the notion of us having control over North Korean territory (since that means we'd have bases literally next door), and I'm pretty sure N. Korea would try to send nukes before that happened, but what would China do if we actually did go to war with N. Korea?

Would they back N. Korea, or would they back us? Would we even get involved or would we let S. Korea handle the ground war?

What about Russia, would they get behind China or US if it was a war between our two nations?

According to one report, until about the year 2025 the U.S. would be almost assured to win in any conflict against China.

What happens in 2025 that decreases our likelihood of winning a conflict against China? I'd be interested in reading that report.

If North Korea attacked the South, then South Korea would definitely fight back and Japan would likely join the war on our side against North Korea.

I thought Japan had a defense-only clause for their military forces? I think I heard about that changing recently but to what end?

I think that in the end the Sino-DPRK alliance would be balanced out by Japan and South Korea, to say nothing of our other allies. Provided that the U.S. and its allies actually had the will to fight, they'd ultimately win.

I'd generally agree with that assumption.
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Blade-of-Truth
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8/31/2016 8:14:39 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/31/2016 7:54:14 AM, imabench wrote:
At 8/30/2016 4:07:32 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
A few weeks ago N. Korea declared war on America... in reality they are saying that we declared war on them, and in effect they cut the final line of communication between us. Now, obviously we'd crush them if they actually put their money where their mouth is, but I'm actually concerned about one factor - China. Clearly China doesn't agree with the notion of us having control over North Korean territory (since that means we'd have bases literally next door), and I'm pretty sure N. Korea would try to send nukes before that happened, but what would China do if we actually did go to war with N. Korea?

Would they back N. Korea, or would they back us? Would we even get involved or would we let S. Korea handle the ground war?

What about Russia, would they get behind China or US if it was a war between our two nations?

I could see one or maybe even both of them funneling money to North Korea (China far more likely than Russia) but I doubt that either side treats North Korea the same way that the US treats the UK or Israel as an indispensable ally....

Yeah, I agree with you on that. The reason I even included Russia in this inquiry as a possible player is due to their apparent alliance in military drills. Seems they're somewhat invested in working with China in some military scenarios, although whether they'd partake in one involving China supporting N.K. is a different story. http://thediplomat.com...

When the US invaded Vietnam a decade and a half or so after Korea, China and Russia again only gave money and weapons to the Vietnamese to help them fight, rather then openly enter the war head on.

This is true. My concern stemmed more from their involvement in the previous Korean War, which would seem more applicable to this scenario I'm inquiring about. Either way, I generally agree with your assessment. It does seem more unlikely than not that they'd get involved should south and north Korea go at it again.
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1harderthanyouthink
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8/31/2016 8:21:48 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
China would not back North Korea. They would probably directly fight them. Too much to lose with no US trade.
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Blade-of-Truth
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8/31/2016 8:43:01 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/31/2016 8:21:48 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
China would not back North Korea. They would probably directly fight them. Too much to lose with no US trade.

That's a very good point. I completely overlooked the economic factors at play here. However, I don't know how much longer our relations with them will stand. This is a pretty informative article I read on the matter (http://www.businessinsider.com...), and while I don't see this "breakup" that the article speaks of as an immediate threat I do think it's interesting that our trade relations might not last as long as we hope.

I think, if anything, China would probably swallow up NK in the aftermath of a conflict between NK and SK. That is, if they do indeed join in on our side.
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1harderthanyouthink
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8/31/2016 8:51:49 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/31/2016 8:43:01 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 8/31/2016 8:21:48 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
China would not back North Korea. They would probably directly fight them. Too much to lose with no US trade.

That's a very good point. I completely overlooked the economic factors at play here. However, I don't know how much longer our relations with them will stand. This is a pretty informative article I read on the matter (http://www.businessinsider.com...), and while I don't see this "breakup" that the article speaks of as an immediate threat I do think it's interesting that our trade relations might not last as long as we hope.

I think, if anything, China would probably swallow up NK in the aftermath of a conflict between NK and SK. That is, if they do indeed join in on our side.

I think that there would probably be diplomatic battles between SK and China over it. Ultimately I think it would be seen as a land-grab by China internationally, so they may avoid that. It's also a huge responsibility for them to take that population.
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Blade-of-Truth
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8/31/2016 9:00:54 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/31/2016 8:51:49 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 8/31/2016 8:43:01 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 8/31/2016 8:21:48 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
China would not back North Korea. They would probably directly fight them. Too much to lose with no US trade.

That's a very good point. I completely overlooked the economic factors at play here. However, I don't know how much longer our relations with them will stand. This is a pretty informative article I read on the matter (http://www.businessinsider.com...), and while I don't see this "breakup" that the article speaks of as an immediate threat I do think it's interesting that our trade relations might not last as long as we hope.

I think, if anything, China would probably swallow up NK in the aftermath of a conflict between NK and SK. That is, if they do indeed join in on our side.

I think that there would probably be diplomatic battles between SK and China over it. Ultimately I think it would be seen as a land-grab by China internationally, so they may avoid that. It's also a huge responsibility for them to take that population.

True enough, but would the people of NK actually submit to American rule, regardless of if it's enforced by SK forces? What if they demanded to be controlled by Chinese forces instead if faced with that choice? Obviously this is all hypothetical, but idk - I could see China being allowed to control them if that's what the people wanted and claimed to want on a global stage. We saw it happen with Crimea, which was clearly different circumstances, but the underlying moral of letting the citizens choose their own fate could be applied.
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Greyparrot
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8/31/2016 9:03:36 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/31/2016 8:21:48 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
China would not back North Korea. They would probably directly fight them. Too much to lose with no US trade.

This is a dangerous position to hinge policies.

China will come to a point, if it has not already reached it, where a trade embargo would be mutually destructive to both nations, and therefore no longer a viable defensive strategy.

China has no love for North Korea, but would absolutely fight US troops on Asian soil if the US initiated a pre-emptive attack on North Korea.
1harderthanyouthink
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8/31/2016 9:15:28 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/31/2016 9:00:54 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 8/31/2016 8:51:49 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 8/31/2016 8:43:01 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 8/31/2016 8:21:48 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
China would not back North Korea. They would probably directly fight them. Too much to lose with no US trade.

That's a very good point. I completely overlooked the economic factors at play here. However, I don't know how much longer our relations with them will stand. This is a pretty informative article I read on the matter (http://www.businessinsider.com...), and while I don't see this "breakup" that the article speaks of as an immediate threat I do think it's interesting that our trade relations might not last as long as we hope.

I think, if anything, China would probably swallow up NK in the aftermath of a conflict between NK and SK. That is, if they do indeed join in on our side.

I think that there would probably be diplomatic battles between SK and China over it. Ultimately I think it would be seen as a land-grab by China internationally, so they may avoid that. It's also a huge responsibility for them to take that population.

True enough, but would the people of NK actually submit to American rule, regardless of if it's enforced by SK forces? What if they demanded to be controlled by Chinese forces instead if faced with that choice? Obviously this is all hypothetical, but idk - I could see China being allowed to control them if that's what the people wanted and claimed to want on a global stage. We saw it happen with Crimea, which was clearly different circumstances, but the underlying moral of letting the citizens choose their own fate could be applied.

North Koreans are literally uneducated on what happens outside their country. Usually, when they do find outside information, they defect.
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1harderthanyouthink
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8/31/2016 9:18:35 AM
Posted: 3 months ago
At 8/31/2016 9:03:36 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 8/31/2016 8:21:48 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
China would not back North Korea. They would probably directly fight them. Too much to lose with no US trade.

This is a dangerous position to hinge policies.

China will come to a point, if it has not already reached it, where a trade embargo would be mutually destructive to both nations, and therefore no longer a viable defensive strategy.

China has no love for North Korea, but would absolutely fight US troops on Asian soil if the US initiated a pre-emptive attack on North Korea.

I'm not sure if fhe US will ever launch a pre-emptive attack on North Korea, unless they wanted the land - but the US doesn't want that responsibility. As long as they have a South Korean base to use, and North Korea isn't attacking them - the North Koreans can starve.
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UtherPenguin
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8/31/2016 5:44:28 PM
Posted: 3 months ago
We can't forget the nukes, probably the only incentive keeping China on NK's side is Pyongyand's nuclear capabilities. If China were to completely cut the string with the DPRK then that'd leave North Korea a cornered cat with nukes. Not only that but that'd Tokyo, Seoul and other major East Asian cities within their missile range. If North Korea were to be left a complete Pariah with nothing left to lose, then I'd be sure Beijing would soon join the nuclear hitlist.
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