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The death of the republican party

Mikal
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9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.

[1] http://www.270towin.com...
Capital
Posts: 588
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9/5/2016 4:11:06 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Party shifts are very common. Your right though. Of course republicans will have to support gay marriage and abortion if any republican effort to stop these fail over the next 20 years
Im not a Nazi
Mikal
Posts: 11,270
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9/5/2016 4:13:12 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:11:06 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Party shifts are very common. Your right though. Of course republicans will have to support gay marriage and abortion if any republican effort to stop these fail over the next 20 years

Party shits are normative, but trump has changed the very foundation for the shift. The GOP will have to shift to more liberal oriented views to not alienate minorities in the future after his blunders this election.
Capital
Posts: 588
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9/5/2016 4:13:53 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:13:12 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:11:06 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Party shifts are very common. Your right though. Of course republicans will have to support gay marriage and abortion if any republican effort to stop these fail over the next 20 years

Party shits are normative, but trump has changed the very foundation for the shift. The GOP will have to shift to more liberal oriented views to not alienate minorities in the future after his blunders this election.

He will probably win
Im not a Nazi
Mikal
Posts: 11,270
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9/5/2016 4:15:49 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:13:53 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:13:12 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:11:06 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Party shifts are very common. Your right though. Of course republicans will have to support gay marriage and abortion if any republican effort to stop these fail over the next 20 years

Party shits are normative, but trump has changed the very foundation for the shift. The GOP will have to shift to more liberal oriented views to not alienate minorities in the future after his blunders this election.

He will probably win

I would get a betting pool on that. Short on Hillary be indicted, this will be the biggest landslide of any election in the past 50 years.
triangle.128k
Posts: 3,637
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9/5/2016 4:17:01 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Okay, what about Trump is bad and unappealing to minorities? The fact that he spoke out against *illegal* immigrants? The cries of racism/sexism against Trump are absolute nonsense.
Capital
Posts: 588
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9/5/2016 4:17:04 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:15:49 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:13:53 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:13:12 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:11:06 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Party shifts are very common. Your right though. Of course republicans will have to support gay marriage and abortion if any republican effort to stop these fail over the next 20 years

Party shits are normative, but trump has changed the very foundation for the shift. The GOP will have to shift to more liberal oriented views to not alienate minorities in the future after his blunders this election.

He will probably win

I would get a betting pool on that. Short on Hillary be indicted, this will be the biggest landslide of any election in the past 50 years.

Hitler could run vs HIllary, not say anything or do anything, and he would win the race
Im not a Nazi
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,068
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9/5/2016 4:19:07 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
You're probably right about the future of the GOP, but at this stage it isn't guaranteed that Trump's going to lose. He's currently tied with Hillary in the polls (and, according to one poll, actually a point ahead of her).
Furthermore, as the pre-referendum polls on the Brexit showed, support for populist candidates/positions tend to be underestimated by the experts.
I also saw this interesting article stating that, while most Democrats understand that Trump shouldn't be president, most aren't compelled to vote for Hillary, which means on election day they might bash Trump on their Facebook profiles while not actually showing up to vote for his opponent.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,068
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9/5/2016 4:21:49 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
Hillary has devoted all of her efforts towards making Trump look like the unacceptable candidate while not actually doing much of anything to show Americans why they should vote for her.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,068
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9/5/2016 4:25:28 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
My mom and dad, who hated Trump in the primaries, have decided to vote for him regardless just so that Hillary doesn't win.
Turnout this election season will be at a record low for sure, but Trump can still win if democrat turnout is lower than republican turnout.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
Mikal
Posts: 11,270
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9/5/2016 4:26:06 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:17:01 PM, triangle.128k wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Okay, what about Trump is bad and unappealing to minorities? The fact that he spoke out against *illegal* immigrants? The cries of racism/sexism against Trump are absolute nonsense.

Do you want a list?

1.David Duke supported trump (ex leader of the KKK) and he did not immediately disavow the endorsement.
2.In his opening statement announcing he was running, he called Mexicans rapist and criminals.
3.He's pandering to African Americans to win votes and it's obvious.
4. He call for a ban on Muslims entering the country.
5. He claimed a Judge could not oversee a case fairly because he was Mexican.
6. He was sued by the Justice department for not renting to African Americans

and that is just the examples that come to mind off my head. He was disavowed by a huge majority in the GOP for gods sake.

In every polls he is getting only 1-9 percent of the black vote [1][2]. The same is true with Spanish and Muslim numbers. What is unappealing to him with Minorities. His entire existence is unappealing to minorities. He is the epitome of what it means to be racist, and is the poster child for not to be if you run for the country.

John Oliver sums up his presidential run pretty well in this vid [3]

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com...
[2] http://www.washingtontimes.com...-/
[3] https://www.youtube.com...
Mikal
Posts: 11,270
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9/5/2016 4:27:56 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:17:04 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:15:49 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:13:53 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:13:12 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:11:06 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Party shifts are very common. Your right though. Of course republicans will have to support gay marriage and abortion if any republican effort to stop these fail over the next 20 years

Party shits are normative, but trump has changed the very foundation for the shift. The GOP will have to shift to more liberal oriented views to not alienate minorities in the future after his blunders this election.

He will probably win

I would get a betting pool on that. Short on Hillary be indicted, this will be the biggest landslide of any election in the past 50 years.

Hitler could run vs HIllary, not say anything or do anything, and he would win the race

Hillary has already won this race in every poll imaginable. The only poll Trump even gets close in is Fox polls that are based on the general populace and not looking at the electorate college.

Trump has literally almost flipped every state that could flip to Blue. He is literally going to make Texas go blue in the future. This guy cannot win anything unless shes indicted. He has literally destroyed the GOP
Capital
Posts: 588
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9/5/2016 4:28:43 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:27:56 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:17:04 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:15:49 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:13:53 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:13:12 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:11:06 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Party shifts are very common. Your right though. Of course republicans will have to support gay marriage and abortion if any republican effort to stop these fail over the next 20 years

Party shits are normative, but trump has changed the very foundation for the shift. The GOP will have to shift to more liberal oriented views to not alienate minorities in the future after his blunders this election.

He will probably win

I would get a betting pool on that. Short on Hillary be indicted, this will be the biggest landslide of any election in the past 50 years.

Hitler could run vs HIllary, not say anything or do anything, and he would win the race

Hillary has already won this race in every poll imaginable. The only poll Trump even gets close in is Fox polls that are based on the general populace and not looking at the electorate college.

Trump has literally almost flipped every state that could flip to Blue. He is literally going to make Texas go blue in the future. This guy cannot win anything unless shes indicted. He has literally destroyed the GOP

Nope wait till November champ

Polls change
Im not a Nazi
Mikal
Posts: 11,270
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9/5/2016 4:28:44 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:19:07 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
You're probably right about the future of the GOP, but at this stage it isn't guaranteed that Trump's going to lose. He's currently tied with Hillary in the polls (and, according to one poll, actually a point ahead of her).
Furthermore, as the pre-referendum polls on the Brexit showed, support for populist candidates/positions tend to be underestimated by the experts.
I also saw this interesting article stating that, while most Democrats understand that Trump shouldn't be president, most aren't compelled to vote for Hillary, which means on election day they might bash Trump on their Facebook profiles while not actually showing up to vote for his opponent.

He's tied in Fox polls with the general populace. Not the electoral college. You don't win off popular vote polls (especially bias ones)
Mikal
Posts: 11,270
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9/5/2016 4:29:42 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:28:43 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:27:56 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:17:04 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:15:49 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:13:53 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:13:12 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:11:06 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Party shifts are very common. Your right though. Of course republicans will have to support gay marriage and abortion if any republican effort to stop these fail over the next 20 years

Party shits are normative, but trump has changed the very foundation for the shift. The GOP will have to shift to more liberal oriented views to not alienate minorities in the future after his blunders this election.

He will probably win

I would get a betting pool on that. Short on Hillary be indicted, this will be the biggest landslide of any election in the past 50 years.

Hitler could run vs HIllary, not say anything or do anything, and he would win the race

Hillary has already won this race in every poll imaginable. The only poll Trump even gets close in is Fox polls that are based on the general populace and not looking at the electorate college.

Trump has literally almost flipped every state that could flip to Blue. He is literally going to make Texas go blue in the future. This guy cannot win anything unless shes indicted. He has literally destroyed the GOP

Nope wait till November champ

Polls change

There is not a snowballs chance in hell he wins lol. Again unless Hillary is indicted
TBR
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9/5/2016 4:30:05 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:17:01 PM, triangle.128k wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Okay, what about Trump is bad and unappealing to minorities? The fact that he spoke out against *illegal* immigrants? The cries of racism/sexism against Trump are absolute nonsense.

You keep arguing that YOU know what better how the effected minority voters perceive his crap. They, with zero support for Trump, are telling you very loud and very clearly that his stick is offensive.

You can't sit back and insist that the offended party's (the ones who you want votes from) PROVE why they hate this guy. That itself is arrogant. They get to vote without proving to you how nasty this fool is
Capital
Posts: 588
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9/5/2016 4:30:21 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:29:42 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:28:43 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:27:56 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:17:04 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:15:49 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:13:53 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:13:12 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:11:06 PM, Capital wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Party shifts are very common. Your right though. Of course republicans will have to support gay marriage and abortion if any republican effort to stop these fail over the next 20 years

Party shits are normative, but trump has changed the very foundation for the shift. The GOP will have to shift to more liberal oriented views to not alienate minorities in the future after his blunders this election.

He will probably win

I would get a betting pool on that. Short on Hillary be indicted, this will be the biggest landslide of any election in the past 50 years.

Hitler could run vs HIllary, not say anything or do anything, and he would win the race

Hillary has already won this race in every poll imaginable. The only poll Trump even gets close in is Fox polls that are based on the general populace and not looking at the electorate college.

Trump has literally almost flipped every state that could flip to Blue. He is literally going to make Texas go blue in the future. This guy cannot win anything unless shes indicted. He has literally destroyed the GOP

Nope wait till November champ

Polls change

There is not a snowballs chance in hell he wins lol. Again unless Hillary is indicted

Just wait bro

Just wait.
Im not a Nazi
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,068
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9/5/2016 4:33:28 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:28:44 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:19:07 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
You're probably right about the future of the GOP, but at this stage it isn't guaranteed that Trump's going to lose. He's currently tied with Hillary in the polls (and, according to one poll, actually a point ahead of her).
Furthermore, as the pre-referendum polls on the Brexit showed, support for populist candidates/positions tend to be underestimated by the experts.
I also saw this interesting article stating that, while most Democrats understand that Trump shouldn't be president, most aren't compelled to vote for Hillary, which means on election day they might bash Trump on their Facebook profiles while not actually showing up to vote for his opponent.

He's tied in Fox polls with the general populace. Not the electoral college. You don't win off popular vote polls (especially bias ones)

Even the "unbiased" sources (those which just a week or two ago were saying that Hillary had a ten-point lead) are now saying that they're roughly tied in the polls.
The electoral college thing would certainly pose a problem though.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
Mikal
Posts: 11,270
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9/5/2016 4:36:14 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:33:28 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:28:44 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:19:07 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
You're probably right about the future of the GOP, but at this stage it isn't guaranteed that Trump's going to lose. He's currently tied with Hillary in the polls (and, according to one poll, actually a point ahead of her).
Furthermore, as the pre-referendum polls on the Brexit showed, support for populist candidates/positions tend to be underestimated by the experts.
I also saw this interesting article stating that, while most Democrats understand that Trump shouldn't be president, most aren't compelled to vote for Hillary, which means on election day they might bash Trump on their Facebook profiles while not actually showing up to vote for his opponent.

He's tied in Fox polls with the general populace. Not the electoral college. You don't win off popular vote polls (especially bias ones)

Even the "unbiased" sources (those which just a week or two ago were saying that Hillary had a ten-point lead) are now saying that they're roughly tied in the polls.
The electoral college thing would certainly pose a problem though.

The GOP polls have them tied, the Dems have Hillary at like a 6 point lead. If you did the balance of those it puts Hillary 3 - 4. Granted that is not accurate. The only thing the Polls show is that with the new recovered emails, she is suffering slightly in the general populace.

Even if they were tied or Trump was winning the popular vote, he can't win with the electoral college. This election will be a landslide because of how the college is set up.
triangle.128k
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9/5/2016 4:40:41 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:26:06 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:17:01 PM, triangle.128k wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Okay, what about Trump is bad and unappealing to minorities? The fact that he spoke out against *illegal* immigrants? The cries of racism/sexism against Trump are absolute nonsense.

Do you want a list?

1.David Duke supported trump (ex leader of the KKK) and he did not immediately disavow the endorsement.
Big deal, he was most likely confused

2.In his opening statement announcing he was running, he called Mexicans rapist and criminals.
You mean ILLEGAL Mexican immigrants? If I wanted to race bait in the same way Democrars do, I could call you racist for saying all Mexicans are illegal immigrants because that's who Trump targetted.

3.He's pandering to African Americans to win votes and it's obvious.
"Pandering" no he's trying to appeal to Blacks.

4. He call for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country.
Fixed
He calls for a temporary ban until the immigration system is reformed to weed out radical or ultraconservative muslims.

5. He claimed a Judge could not oversee a case fairly because he was Mexican.
No.

6. He was sued by the Justice department for not renting to African Americans
Elaborate, was it maybe because barely any Blacks cared to rent from him?

and that is just the examples that come to mind off my head. He was disavowed by a huge majority in the GOP for gods sake.

In every polls he is getting only 1-9 percent of the black vote [1][2]. The same is true with Spanish and Muslim numbers.
Blacks don't know what they're getting by voting for Clinton. I genuinely feel sorry for them because the liberal welfare state is what harmed them more than any Republican policy, and many of them don't know it.

Also do keep in mind the polls are rigged and never give accurate results. The Black vote will most likely have more votes on Clinton, that's just because they're brainwashed by the media's race baiting and political correctness.

What is unappealing to him with Minorities. His entire existence is unappealing to minorities. He is the epitome of what it means to be racist, and is the poster child for not to be if you run for the country.
Hurr durr, he's rasis!!!
https://pbs.twimg.com...

John Oliver sums up his presidential run pretty well in this vid [3]



[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com...
[2] http://www.washingtontimes.com...-/
[3] https://www.youtube.com...

I'll read that when I get time.
triangle.128k
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9/5/2016 4:40:48 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:30:05 PM, TBR wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:17:01 PM, triangle.128k wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Okay, what about Trump is bad and unappealing to minorities? The fact that he spoke out against *illegal* immigrants? The cries of racism/sexism against Trump are absolute nonsense.

You keep arguing that YOU know what better how the effected minority voters perceive his crap. They, with zero support for Trump, are telling you very loud and very clearly that his stick is offensive.
Many minorities percieve him as racist because of political correctness and the constant race baiting by the media. PC culture is why they are getting offended. As a minority that doesn't buy into race baiting, Trump is nowhere near offensive.

You can't sit back and insist that the offended party's (the ones who you want votes from) PROVE why they hate this guy. That itself is arrogant. They get to vote without proving to you how nasty this fool is
They hate him because of political correctness and race baiting.
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,280
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9/5/2016 4:42:55 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
I love how the 'analysis' that we trust is coming from the same people who laughed at the prospect of Trump winning the primary right up until it was painstakingly obvious that he would win, and sometimes not even then.

'Racist' is just a campaign buzzword. It's an effective one, but it doesn't address any sort of substance, and can only influence someone who is already wrapped up in confirmation bias about Trump. It's not going to win more voters to the Democrats, especially if Trump wins.

Also, white votes bleeding into the Republican party is a distinct possibility, and it's very likely to happen as demographic changes ratchet up ethnic tension (Especially if Trump looses). There's also the fact that all of the identity politics factions of the Democratic party don't necessarily play well together. Their strategy is basically to stuff more and more angry cats into a bag, and then struggle to keep them from breaking out or killing one another. Pretty soon, people are start going to figure out that a narrow political agenda can't help everyone within a tenuous coalition, that there are distinct 'winners' and 'losers' in the establishment Democrat's vision of the world, and that the winners seem to be overwhelmingly wealthy and well connected.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
Mikal
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9/5/2016 4:52:26 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:40:41 PM, triangle.128k wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:26:06 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:17:01 PM, triangle.128k wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Okay, what about Trump is bad and unappealing to minorities? The fact that he spoke out against *illegal* immigrants? The cries of racism/sexism against Trump are absolute nonsense.

Do you want a list?

1.David Duke supported trump (ex leader of the KKK) and he did not immediately disavow the endorsement.
Big deal, he was most likely confused

lmao. Confused how? They asked him about the leader of the KKK supporting him and he said it was fine, and when asked about the implications he dodged the question. He was not confused, he did not want to alienate white racist voters so he pandered to racists.

2.In his opening statement announcing he was running, he called Mexicans rapist and criminals.
You mean ILLEGAL Mexican immigrants? If I wanted to race bait in the same way Democrars do, I could call you racist for saying all Mexicans are illegal immigrants because that's who Trump targetted.

Illegal Mexicans are still Mexicans. He categorized and entire section of people because of their actions as a Race. That is racism verbatim. It's the epitome of what it means to be racist bigot.

3.He's pandering to African Americans to win votes and it's obvious.
"Pandering" no he's trying to appeal to Blacks.

He is pandering. He's shifting his rhetoric to try to appeal to Black Voters. That is the literal definition of pandering.

4. He call for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country.
Fixed
He calls for a temporary ban until the immigration system is reformed to weed out radical or ultraconservative muslims.

Again he is targeting a sect of people based on a minority belief. HE should also stops any Caucasian for coming into the country because some whites belong to the KKK. Again textbook racism.

5. He claimed a Judge could not oversee a case fairly because he was Mexican.
No.

Yes he did
http://www.politifact.com...

so much so that Paul Ryan called his remark textbook racism


6. He was sued by the Justice department for not renting to African Americans
Elaborate, was it maybe because barely any Blacks cared to rent from him?

A black woman who met the requirements to rent an apt for him was told there was nothing available. Immediately after, a white woman inquired to the same place and was given it. After investigation it was found the black lady was lied to and they pressed a racial bias case against him for refusing service to someone because of color. This happened many times and he was sued twice for it

and that is just the examples that come to mind off my head. He was disavowed by a huge majority in the GOP for gods sake.

In every polls he is getting only 1-9 percent of the black vote [1][2]. The same is true with Spanish and Muslim numbers.
Blacks don't know what they're getting by voting for Clinton. I genuinely feel sorry for them because the liberal welfare state is what harmed them more than any Republican policy, and many of them don't know it.

What you feel is irrelevant, that is factual data in every poll. You implied that no one feels alienated. You are objectively wrong

Also do keep in mind the polls are rigged and never give accurate results. The Black vote will most likely have more votes on Clinton, that's just because they're brainwashed by the media's race baiting and political correctness.

The polls are not rigged. No polls, not even ones that support trump have him polling higher than 9 percent

What is unappealing to him with Minorities. His entire existence is unappealing to minorities. He is the epitome of what it means to be racist, and is the poster child for not to be if you run for the country.
Hurr durr, he's rasis!!!
https://pbs.twimg.com...

John Oliver sums up his presidential run pretty well in this vid [3]



[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com...
[2] http://www.washingtontimes.com...-/
[3] https://www.youtube.com...

I'll read that when I get time.
Stymie13
Posts: 2,162
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9/5/2016 4:58:38 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
I've said it before and I'll say it again: brewsters millions, none of the above. Write in candidate for the 4th election in a row.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,240
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9/5/2016 5:22:32 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:42:55 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
I love how the 'analysis' that we trust is coming from the same people who laughed at the prospect of Trump winning the primary right up until it was painstakingly obvious that he would win, and sometimes not even then.
but but but...It's John Oliver...do you know who I am?????
brontoraptor
Posts: 11,685
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9/5/2016 5:26:30 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Minorities already had that view because the gop expected them to be equals rather than cheap labor used to win elections with bribes.
"What Donald Trump is doing is representing the absolute heartbreak, and anger, and frustration at a government gone mad."

http://youtu.be...
triangle.128k
Posts: 3,637
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9/5/2016 5:33:19 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:52:26 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:40:41 PM, triangle.128k wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:26:06 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:17:01 PM, triangle.128k wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

Okay, what about Trump is bad and unappealing to minorities? The fact that he spoke out against *illegal* immigrants? The cries of racism/sexism against Trump are absolute nonsense.

Do you want a list?

1.David Duke supported trump (ex leader of the KKK) and he did not immediately disavow the endorsement.
Big deal, he was most likely confused

lmao. Confused how? They asked him about the leader of the KKK supporting him and he said it was fine, and when asked about the implications he dodged the question. He was not confused, he did not want to alienate white racist voters so he pandered to racists.

He didn't know he was a KKK leader
http://www.politifact.com...-/

2.In his opening statement announcing he was running, he called Mexicans rapist and criminals.
You mean ILLEGAL Mexican immigrants? If I wanted to race bait in the same way Democrars do, I could call you racist for saying all Mexicans are illegal immigrants because that's who Trump targetted.

Illegal Mexicans are still Mexicans.
Oh I'm sorry, I didn't know that it's racist to insult anybody that's a Mexican. Looks like I'm racist for insulting somebody who was pissing me off (that happened to be Mexican)

He categorized and entire section of people because of their actions as a Race. That is racism verbatim. It's the epitome of what it means to be racist bigot.
A section of people that hop the border and don't come in legally. Why does insulting ILLEGAL immigrants suddenly make you a racist?

3.He's pandering to African Americans to win votes and it's obvious.
"Pandering" no he's trying to appeal to Blacks.

He is pandering. He's shifting his rhetoric to try to appeal to Black Voters. That is the literal definition of pandering.
What rhetoric is he shifting?

4. He call for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country.
Fixed
He calls for a temporary ban until the immigration system is reformed to weed out radical or ultraconservative muslims.

Again he is targeting a sect of people based on a minority belief. HE should also stops any Caucasian for coming into the country because some whites belong to the KKK. Again textbook racism.
The KKK is American, and remember that the KKK is a *very* small amount of white people. However, the amount of Muslims holding ultraconservative and reactionary views is much higher. You can compare almost any muslim majority country (only a few exceptions here), and you can see there is sharia law and repression of religious minorities. Clearly it is best to be cautious of not letting in Muslims with ultraconservative or reactionary views.

5. He claimed a Judge could not oversee a case fairly because he was Mexican.
No.

Yes he did
http://www.politifact.com...
;
so much so that Paul Ryan called his remark textbook racism

Not because he was Mexican, but because he was in some strongly pro-Mexican organization and whatever. And he said there was nothing wrong with that, but he was being unfair.

Again this is more of a case where he was just being stupid, he was just pissed at the judge.


6. He was sued by the Justice department for not renting to African Americans
Elaborate, was it maybe because barely any Blacks cared to rent from him?

A black woman who met the requirements to rent an apt for him was told there was nothing available. Immediately after, a white woman inquired to the same place and was given it. After investigation it was found the black lady was lied to and they pressed a racial bias case against him for refusing service to someone because of color. This happened many times and he was sued twice for it
It was his organization, not Trump himself. And again, this was in the 70s where racism was much more common. Even if Trump did this on purpose and hired the wrong people, he could have easily grown up and changed his racial views. Nobody calls out Malcolm X for being racist, because he used to be a militant Black nationalist with a disdain against Whites until he changed his views after going on a pilgrimage. But I'm most likely thinking he hired the wrong people, but why does it matter if a former racist changed their views?

and that is just the examples that come to mind off my head. He was disavowed by a huge majority in the GOP for gods sake.

In every polls he is getting only 1-9 percent of the black vote [1][2]. The same is true with Spanish and Muslim numbers.
Blacks don't know what they're getting by voting for Clinton. I genuinely feel sorry for them because the liberal welfare state is what harmed them more than any Republican policy, and many of them don't know it.

What you feel is irrelevant, that is factual data in every poll. You implied that no one feels alienated. You are objectively wrong
Most Blacks lean Democrat because of race baiting by the left, and the fact that they don't realize how harmful welfare has been to their community.

And may I ask, is Clinton prejudiced against the white working class? She's heavily unpopular among them.

Also do keep in mind the polls are rigged and never give accurate results. The Black vote will most likely have more votes on Clinton, that's just because they're brainwashed by the media's race baiting and political correctness.

The polls are not rigged. No polls, not even ones that support trump have him polling higher than 9 percent
Rigged.

What is unappealing to him with Minorities. His entire existence is unappealing to minorities. He is the epitome of what it means to be racist, and is the poster child for not to be if you run for the country.
Hurr durr, he's rasis!!!
https://pbs.twimg.com...

John Oliver sums up his presidential run pretty well in this vid [3]



[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com...
[2] http://www.washingtontimes.com...-/
[3] https://www.youtube.com...
Z_ONE
Posts: 89
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9/5/2016 5:43:36 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com... : :

Do you actually believe that all "colored people" are liberals?
tajshar2k
Posts: 2,378
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9/5/2016 5:50:23 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com...

In some ways I'm kinda glad he destroyed the GOP.

The GOP has been dominated by Neo-Cons for the last 20 years, and it's policies have undoubtedly been shown to make problems worse for America. Whatever Trump did, he has made sure the GOP establishment has died. Hopefully the GOP can rebuild.
"In Guns We Trust" Tajshar2k
Mikal
Posts: 11,270
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9/5/2016 6:24:08 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/5/2016 5:43:36 PM, Z_ONE wrote:
At 9/5/2016 4:07:57 PM, Mikal wrote:
I'm almost certain at some point in the next 20 years, probably closer to 10 that the republican party itself will be forced to undergo a huge ideological shift or suffer decimation. Trump becoming the front runner has almost sealed the fate of the GOP. His incessant ramblings about minorities, and views on immigration has segregated such a large part of the general populace that minorities will always have a predisposed mindset of the GOP.

Some states that have always swung red will start to shift blue. Take Arizona for example, they have swung red in every election since 1952 except when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996. This year they are more than likely going blue [1]. The issue is this will start to play a huge factor in swing states and states with minorities. Florida for example will see this happen, and even Texas stands a chance to go blue within the next 12 years. With key states going blue this will make it impossible for a republican nominee to win with how the electoral college is set up.

The electorial college and Trumps views, have sealed the fate of the GOP.



[1] http://www.270towin.com... : :

Do you actually believe that all "colored people" are liberals?

http://www.people-press.org...

not but 60-70 percent are not republican