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Hillary's Falling Poll Numbers

bsh1
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9/10/2016 4:02:50 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
Chris recently asked me what my thoughts were on this, and I think it is an interesting question. Clinton was 6-9 points ahead in the weeks immediate following the Democratic Convention, due in large part to Trump's enforced errors. Now, however, I think most of us can acknowledge that the race has closed. Why is that?

I think it is for a few reasons:

1. Presidential races tend to narrow between the conventions and mid-October. This phenomenon was seen in 2012, 2008, 2004, and 1992 to varying degrees. [See Links]

2. Trump's new team seemed to reign him in, and he's been making fewer errors. This has given him an opening to turn the media cycles against Clinton and to launch his own attacks.

3. Hillary went AWOL in August. She focused too much on doing private fundraisers, and did too little to (a) get her message out to the voters, (b) to be seen on TV, and (c) to attack Trump to prevent him from getting the exact respite which he has now used to turn things around.

4. Voters are tuning in more and more, and increased rates of voter engagement are likely to have an impact on the polls.

What are your thoughts on this analysis, and what are your own ideas on this question?

===========

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https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...
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triangle.128k
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9/10/2016 4:30:45 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 4:02:50 AM, bsh1 wrote:

What are your thoughts on this analysis, and what are your own ideas on this question?

Good, very good. Trump's odds are only looking more promising.
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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9/10/2016 5:07:10 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 4:02:50 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Chris recently asked me what my thoughts were on this, and I think it is an interesting question. Clinton was 6-9 points ahead in the weeks immediate following the Democratic Convention, due in large part to Trump's enforced errors. Now, however, I think most of us can acknowledge that the race has closed. Why is that?

I think it is for a few reasons:

1. Presidential races tend to narrow between the conventions and mid-October. This phenomenon was seen in 2012, 2008, 2004, and 1992 to varying degrees. [See Links]

2. Trump's new team seemed to reign him in, and he's been making fewer errors. This has given him an opening to turn the media cycles against Clinton and to launch his own attacks.

3. Hillary went AWOL in August. She focused too much on doing private fundraisers, and did too little to (a) get her message out to the voters, (b) to be seen on TV, and (c) to attack Trump to prevent him from getting the exact respite which he has now used to turn things around.

4. Voters are tuning in more and more, and increased rates of voter engagement are likely to have an impact on the polls.

What are your thoughts on this analysis, and what are your own ideas on this question?

===========

https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...

Yeah, that sounds right to me. Trump dominated the news cycle for a whole month -- delivering major policy speeches (or what he thinks are policy speeches) and liaising with a foreign dignitary. It gave him the appearance of a viable candidate.

Clinton appears to be reforming her campaign strategy - increasing her interaction with the media, humanizing her image, focusing more on her merits than on trump's flaws, and shifting to a more sober, serious, and analytical tone to create a stark contrast with trump (who knows pretty much nothing about anything). If she keeps that up, I expect the polls to widen again.

But let's take a moment to reflect on the fact that all it takes for trump to be competitive is for him to refrain from embarrassing himself for a few days and then the public will pretty much reflexively pardon whatever it is he said. Should anyone else dare say something half as ignorant or half as incendiary as the bilge that spilled out of that man's mouth in the past year, that would spell the end of their candidacy. Gary Johnson is living proof.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
000ike
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9/10/2016 5:17:36 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
Frankly, trump could outrightly and unequivocally renounce all of his positions tomorrow (not that he hasn't already done so in the past) - he could champion free trade, globalism, and open borders with total impunity ... but so long as he remained hostile to obama and clinton and interspersed his message with the same generic criticisms, he wouldn't lose one ounce of support.

He's generated such a powerful cult of personality that people will parse and reinterpret his message until it accords with their views -- if not completely supplant their views with his.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
imabench
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9/10/2016 5:18:39 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
Playing around with 270 to win it and looking at RCP polls, Hillary is up by 7 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, and up by 5 in Wisconsin and Virginia.... Those states alone plus the ones expected to go Dem already puts her at 272 Electoral votes to win the election, and a person only needs 270 to win..... That means Hillary could lose Ohio AND Florida AND North Carolina AND Nevada AND Iowa, and still be able to beat him...... The fact that Arizona and Georgia are battleground states to begin with stands as a testament to how bad Trump is f*cking up

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
http://www.270towin.com...
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PetersSmith
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9/10/2016 5:23:19 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 4:02:50 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Chris recently asked me what my thoughts were on this, and I think it is an interesting question. Clinton was 6-9 points ahead in the weeks immediate following the Democratic Convention, due in large part to Trump's enforced errors. Now, however, I think most of us can acknowledge that the race has closed. Why is that?

I think it is for a few reasons:

1. Presidential races tend to narrow between the conventions and mid-October. This phenomenon was seen in 2012, 2008, 2004, and 1992 to varying degrees. [See Links]

2. Trump's new team seemed to reign him in, and he's been making fewer errors. This has given him an opening to turn the media cycles against Clinton and to launch his own attacks.

3. Hillary went AWOL in August. She focused too much on doing private fundraisers, and did too little to (a) get her message out to the voters, (b) to be seen on TV, and (c) to attack Trump to prevent him from getting the exact respite which he has now used to turn things around.

4. Voters are tuning in more and more, and increased rates of voter engagement are likely to have an impact on the polls.

What are your thoughts on this analysis, and what are your own ideas on this question?

===========

https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...

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000ike
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9/10/2016 5:43:15 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 5:18:39 AM, imabench wrote:
Playing around with 270 to win it and looking at RCP polls, Hillary is up by 7 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, and up by 5 in Wisconsin and Virginia.... Those states alone plus the ones expected to go Dem already puts her at 272 Electoral votes to win the election, and a person only needs 270 to win..... That means Hillary could lose Ohio AND Florida AND North Carolina AND Nevada AND Iowa, and still be able to beat him...... The fact that Arizona and Georgia are battleground states to begin with stands as a testament to how bad Trump is f*cking up

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
http://www.270towin.com...

We can take solace in the fact that the map is much harder for him to win ... but people are stupid ..... people are arrestingly stupid. It would not surprise me if his poll numbers increased in blue-leaning toss-up states, were he to read solely from teleprompters and prepared remarks in controlled settings from now until election day.

Although I'm betting that he's too undisciplined to accomplish even that.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
foxxhajti
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9/10/2016 10:21:48 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 4:02:50 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Chris recently asked me what my thoughts were on this, and I think it is an interesting question. Clinton was 6-9 points ahead in the weeks immediate following the Democratic Convention, due in large part to Trump's enforced errors. Now, however, I think most of us can acknowledge that the race has closed. Why is that?

I think it is for a few reasons:

1. Presidential races tend to narrow between the conventions and mid-October. This phenomenon was seen in 2012, 2008, 2004, and 1992 to varying degrees. [See Links]

2. Trump's new team seemed to reign him in, and he's been making fewer errors. This has given him an opening to turn the media cycles against Clinton and to launch his own attacks.

3. Hillary went AWOL in August. She focused too much on doing private fundraisers, and did too little to (a) get her message out to the voters, (b) to be seen on TV, and (c) to attack Trump to prevent him from getting the exact respite which he has now used to turn things around.

4. Voters are tuning in more and more, and increased rates of voter engagement are likely to have an impact on the polls.

What are your thoughts on this analysis, and what are your own ideas on this question?

===========

https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...

That's pretty interesting, I wouldn't have expected it.
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NHN
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9/10/2016 12:21:18 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 4:02:50 AM, bsh1 wrote:
What are your thoughts on this analysis, and what are your own ideas on this question?
I think you're reading too much into the ebb and flow of polled opinion. The best way to avoid skewed polls is to look at the sample data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com...). CNN/ORC relied on a sample of 786 likely voters (weighted toward old and white voters) while NBC News/SM based theirs on 32,226 registered voters. The lower count of old and white voters will veer toward Trump in a way that a larger and more mixed sample will not.

Regardless, what needs to be taken into account here is the electoral college and not the popular vote. Clinton just needs to maintain her advantages in Pennsylvania (where she's currently ahead by 6.2 points), Wisconsin (+5.3), and Virginia (+5.0) to win.
brontoraptor
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9/10/2016 1:46:56 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 4:02:50 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Chris recently asked me what my thoughts were on this, and I think it is an interesting question. Clinton was 6-9 points ahead in the weeks immediate following the Democratic Convention, due in large part to Trump's enforced errors. Now, however, I think most of us can acknowledge that the race has closed. Why is that?

I think it is for a few reasons:

1. Presidential races tend to narrow between the conventions and mid-October. This phenomenon was seen in 2012, 2008, 2004, and 1992 to varying degrees. [See Links]

2. Trump's new team seemed to reign him in, and he's been making fewer errors. This has given him an opening to turn the media cycles against Clinton and to launch his own attacks.

3. Hillary went AWOL in August. She focused too much on doing private fundraisers, and did too little to (a) get her message out to the voters, (b) to be seen on TV, and (c) to attack Trump to prevent him from getting the exact respite which he has now used to turn things around.

4. Voters are tuning in more and more, and increased rates of voter engagement are likely to have an impact on the polls.

What are your thoughts on this analysis, and what are your own ideas on this question?

===========

https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...

As it gets closer to election time non politically focused people begin looking at the candidates to make a choice and? Hillary is evil. The Hillary is evil memes have went up ten fold on facebook as of late. Why? People are actually enquiring now.
"What Donald Trump is doing is representing the absolute heartbreak, and anger, and frustration at a government gone mad."

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bsh1
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9/10/2016 6:59:41 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 12:21:18 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/10/2016 4:02:50 AM, bsh1 wrote:
What are your thoughts on this analysis, and what are your own ideas on this question?
I think you're reading too much into the ebb and flow of polled opinion.

Not really. Vote aggregators are showing the tightening gap in the race. What these aggregators do is to collect a variety of polls, input their data, and create a trend line based on that data. It is, in essence, a poll of polls. It is much less likely that a trendline produced by these aggregators is inaccurate, because even if an individual poll is skewed, it is unlikely that most or all are. Here are some aggregators, all of which show a 3-4 point swing in Trump's favor.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

What these aggregates--i.e. polling averages--tell us, is that while Clinton is still in the lead, she leads by 3-4 points less than she did during her post-convention high point. The race is getting closer, as I said in the OP.

The best way to avoid skewed polls is to look at the sample data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com...). CNN/ORC relied on a sample of 786 likely voters (weighted toward old and white voters) while NBC News/SM based theirs on 32,226 registered voters.

This isn't really correct. A poll's accuracy is not merely reliant on it having a decent sample size, but having a sufficiently random and representative sample. Methodological differences among pollsters in the collection, computation, and analysis of data can also produce errors. Many pollsters have what is known as a "house effect," wherein they tend to produce results more favorable to a particular party's candidate (Rasmussen, for example, tends to overestimate how well GOP candidates are doing, so it has a GOP-leaning house effect bias).

You'll notice that SurveyMonkey polls are graded as C- by 538 (which is run by well-respect analysts and statisticians). [http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...] I would assume that SM did most of the data collection for the poll you cite above, because SM's online platform makes it easier to collect such large samples rapidly and efficiently. So, a less-than-stellar pollster is the one most of that NBC/SM survey relies on, which doesn't say a lot for that poll.

But, because the NBC/SM poll is a tracking poll, which means that it is conducted at regular intervals to track the progress of the race, we can compare the poll you cited just now (which has Clinton up 6 points) to one held in August, which had Clinton up 9 points. [http://www.nbcnews.com...] That is a fall in Clinton's approval rating by 3 points, consistent with the general 3-4 point swing towards Trump I identified earlier. So, your poll only confirms what I said in my OP about the race getting tighter and more competitive.

Regardless, what needs to be taken into account here is the electoral college and not the popular vote. Clinton just needs to maintain her advantages in Pennsylvania (where she's currently ahead by 6.2 points), Wisconsin (+5.3), and Virginia (+5.0) to win.

The races are getting closer in the swing states as well [http://fivethirtyeight.com...], in line with the national trend. While I still think Clinton will prevail (largely due to her built-in electoral advantage), this OP wasn't so much about forecasting the final result of the election, and more about debating the state of the race now and in the weeks leading up to mid-October.
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bsh1
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9/10/2016 7:01:57 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 5:18:39 AM, imabench wrote:
Playing around with 270 to win it and looking at RCP polls, Hillary is up by 7 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, and up by 5 in Wisconsin and Virginia.... Those states alone plus the ones expected to go Dem already puts her at 272 Electoral votes to win the election, and a person only needs 270 to win..... That means Hillary could lose Ohio AND Florida AND North Carolina AND Nevada AND Iowa, and still be able to beat him...... The fact that Arizona and Georgia are battleground states to begin with stands as a testament to how bad Trump is f*cking up

This is why I think the smart money is still on Clinton to win, but I do think that she needs to stop, slow, or reverse this pro-Trump swing that's occurring. There is still enough time for the race to change significantly enough to help Trump win.

But, ultimately, the massive, built-in disadvantage Trump has in the electoral map is the best thing Clinton has going.
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bsh1
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9/10/2016 7:03:22 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 5:17:36 AM, 000ike wrote:
Frankly, trump could outrightly and unequivocally renounce all of his positions tomorrow (not that he hasn't already done so in the past) - he could champion free trade, globalism, and open borders with total impunity ... but so long as he remained hostile to obama and clinton and interspersed his message with the same generic criticisms, he wouldn't lose one ounce of support.

I wouldn't go quite *that* far. I think there are still a few core ideas he needs to cling to, but I do think he is more immune to this kind of thing than most politicians, who would've been slammed and condemned as flip-floppers had they pulled what Trump has recently.
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bsh1
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9/10/2016 7:06:44 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 12:21:18 PM, NHN wrote:

To clarify, I never said Trump was ahead (he is not, yet). What I did say was "that the race has closed;" i.e., the gap between Hillary and Trump has gotten smaller.
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Capital
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9/10/2016 7:09:49 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 4:30:45 AM, triangle.128k wrote:
At 9/10/2016 4:02:50 AM, bsh1 wrote:

What are your thoughts on this analysis, and what are your own ideas on this question?

Good, very good. Trump's odds are only looking more promising.

Praise our lord and savior Trump
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NHN
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9/10/2016 8:27:51 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 6:59:41 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Not really. Vote aggregators are showing the tightening gap in the race.
I still think the gap is too wide to be speaking of a "tightening" (compare the forecasters http://www.nytimes.com...). We will see in the coming weeks if the gap stabilizes at current levels. However, I will not consider this a tight race until Trump gets within a 30-40% chance of winning. At this point, Clinton has 958 ways to win, Trump 57. Statistically, it really looks like Obama-Romney 2012 -- a contest which was never in doubt.

While I still think Clinton will prevail (largely due to her built-in electoral advantage), this OP wasn't so much about forecasting the final result of the election, and more about debating the state of the race now and in the weeks leading up to mid-October.
I think the current state of the race is a walk in the park, far from the condition in June (see the link above).
bsh1
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9/10/2016 8:39:25 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 8:27:51 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/10/2016 6:59:41 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Not really. Vote aggregators are showing the tightening gap in the race.
I still think the gap is too wide to be speaking of a "tightening"

This is a definitional issue which you seem to be having issues with. Tightening means "getting closer." It does not mean that the race is "close." The two are different things. One is comparative/relative, the other is absolute.

The link you cite below indicates that Hillary is one a downward trend, and Trump is on an upward trend. BY DEFINITION then, it is correct to say that the race is tightening. It is incorrect to to dispute that. This is not an opinion issue; this is objective truth.

However, I will not consider this a tight race until Trump gets within a 30-40% chance of winning.

Here again you betray yourself. You talk about a "tight race" not a "tighter race." I am talking about the latter, and as long as you continue to talk about the former, your not addressing the point being made in the OP.
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NHN
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9/10/2016 8:45:41 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 8:39:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
This is a definitional issue which you seem to be having issues with. Tightening means "getting closer." It does not mean that the race is "close." The two are different things. One is comparative/relative, the other is absolute.
Disclose the interval before identifying what constitutes a trend (http://www.nytimes.com...). That is, pick your months, and then allow objective reality to conform to it.
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9/10/2016 8:52:00 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 8:45:41 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/10/2016 8:39:25 PM, bsh1 wrote:
This is a definitional issue which you seem to be having issues with. Tightening means "getting closer." It does not mean that the race is "close." The two are different things. One is comparative/relative, the other is absolute.
Disclose the interval before identifying what constitutes a trend (http://www.nytimes.com...). That is, pick your months, and then allow objective reality to conform to it.

As I said in my OP, from her convention bump onward to the present. That is the interval of time I've sited, and every single link you've posted and every one I have posted confirm the reality that the race is tightening.

You see in your own link that the gap reached its largest just after the conventions (around the start of August) and has steadily declined since then.

To put it this way:

P1. Tighten means "to get closer."
P2. Clinton and Donald's poll numbers have tightened since late July/early August
C1. Clinton and Donald have gotten closer since late July/early August.

This is indisputable.
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NHN
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9/10/2016 9:25:07 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 8:52:00 PM, bsh1 wrote:
As I said in my OP, from her convention bump onward to the present. That is the interval of time I've sited, and every single link you've posted and every one I have posted confirm the reality that the race is tightening.
You see in your own link that the gap reached its largest just after the conventions (around the start of August) and has steadily declined since then.
My point is that the convention bump is the abnormality. We are now back to how the race was before Trump insulted a Gold Star family. Think of it as a burst stock-market bubble. And I am talking about the chance of winning race, not the poll data for the popular vote.

To put it this way:
P1. Tighten means "to get closer."
P2. Clinton and Donald's poll numbers have tightened since late July/early August
C1. Clinton and Donald have gotten closer since late July/early August.
There is indeed a downward trend for Clinton's popular voting stats between August 7 and September 7. The race, however, is what I'm discussing -- not the popular vote.

Both on August 7 and on September 7 Clinton had an 80% chance of winning the presidency (http://www.nytimes.com...). As you may tell, the chance of winning was the same.

This is indisputable.
It is a conclusion that overlooks the history of presidential elections and the electoral college. Candidates get convention bumps, then they're flattened out. Try more forecasters than Nate Silver's 538.
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9/10/2016 9:31:32 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 9:25:07 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/10/2016 8:52:00 PM, bsh1 wrote:
As I said in my OP, from her convention bump onward to the present. That is the interval of time I've sited, and every single link you've posted and every one I have posted confirm the reality that the race is tightening.
You see in your own link that the gap reached its largest just after the conventions (around the start of August) and has steadily declined since then.
My point is that the convention bump is the abnormality. We are now back to how the race was before Trump insulted a Gold Star family.

Then this is your explanation of why the race is closer. It is not a denial of the reality that the race is tightening, as you presented it.

To put it this way:
P1. Tighten means "to get closer."
P2. Clinton and Donald's poll numbers have tightened since late July/early August
C1. Clinton and Donald have gotten closer since late July/early August.
There is indeed a downward trend for Clinton's popular voting stats between August 7 and September 7. The race, however, is what I'm discussing -- not the popular vote.

Both on August 7 and on September 7

This timeframe doesn't account for the convention bump that occurred, which by your model is hitting more around August 10/12. Other models, which are more immediately responsive to the polls, have it earlier. The point is: she is down from the high that she has recently been enjoying.

Try more forecasters than Nate Silver's 538.

And what is wrong with 538?
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NHN
Posts: 624
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9/10/2016 9:44:22 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 9:31:32 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Then this is your explanation of why the race is closer. It is not a denial of the reality that the race is tightening, as you presented it.
There was a slight bump that pushed Hillary's estimated chance of winning from 80% to 85% and back to 80% from the beginning of August until the beginning of September. That's not a trend but the flattening of a bump over that interval.

This timeframe doesn't account for the convention bump that occurred, which by your model is hitting more around August 10/12. Other models, which are more immediately responsive to the polls, have it earlier. The point is: she is down from the high that she has recently been enjoying.
Not if you frame the interval between the convention and September 7. Then you get the two results presented: a downward trend in popular votes, as polled; a flat line in the chance of winning, as estimated.

Try more forecasters than Nate Silver's 538.
And what is wrong with 538?
There's nothing wrong with 538. It's perfectly fine. It just gives you a better overview to have more than one forecaster to rely on.
bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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9/10/2016 9:57:19 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 9:44:22 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/10/2016 9:31:32 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Then this is your explanation of why the race is closer. It is not a denial of the reality that the race is tightening, as you presented it.
There was a slight bump that pushed Hillary's estimated chance of winning from 80% to 85% and back to 80% from the beginning of August until the beginning of September. That's not a trend but the flattening of a bump over that interval.

The whole point of this thread is that her bump, which you just admitted exist, has gone down, and it has gone down steadily and continues to trend downward from that high point. So, you kind of just admitted that I'm right...

This timeframe doesn't account for the convention bump that occurred, which by your model is hitting more around August 10/12. Other models, which are more immediately responsive to the polls, have it earlier. The point is: she is down from the high that she has recently been enjoying.
Not if you frame the interval between the convention and September 7.

You are being highly specific in the dates you survey to deliberately avoid admitting that you're wrong...which is intellecutally dishonest.

Hillary is down from her August high--her bump has fallen rather than plateaued, and Trump is now 3-points closer. Nit-pick all you want in order to preserve your illusion, but this is fact, and a fact everyone else can recognize.

There's nothing wrong with 538. It's perfectly fine. It just gives you a better overview to have more than one forecaster to rely on.

I have cited at least 3 forecasters and I used your own, so the idea that I am not being diverse in my analysis is silly.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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: http://www.debate.org...

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U.n
Posts: 214
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9/10/2016 10:59:59 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
There's a lot of polls out there. But I simply follow Nate Silver's 2016 Election Forecast:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

In 2012 he correctly predicted all 50 states.
In 2008 he correctly predicted 49 states. The lone state that he was wrong on, Indiana, was won by a margin of 0.1%.

Basically Nate Silver compiles the data from all of the other polls that are out there and runs it through some complex algorithms. I neither know nor care to know the details, but he ultimately ends up with the most accurate forecast predictions available.

With that said, Silver's page shows that Hillary's lead has consistently declined from an 89.2% chance of winning (August 14th) down to a 67.3% chance (September 7th). That's a significant drop. However, it has since plateaued. Hillary's lead has slightly increased over the last three days and she's currently at a 70.0% chance of winning. She appears to have stopped the bleeding, at least for now.
bballcrook21
Posts: 4,468
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9/10/2016 11:55:09 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 4:02:50 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Chris recently asked me what my thoughts were on this, and I think it is an interesting question. Clinton was 6-9 points ahead in the weeks immediate following the Democratic Convention, due in large part to Trump's enforced errors. Now, however, I think most of us can acknowledge that the race has closed. Why is that?

I think it is for a few reasons:

1. Presidential races tend to narrow between the conventions and mid-October. This phenomenon was seen in 2012, 2008, 2004, and 1992 to varying degrees. [See Links]

2. Trump's new team seemed to reign him in, and he's been making fewer errors. This has given him an opening to turn the media cycles against Clinton and to launch his own attacks.

3. Hillary went AWOL in August. She focused too much on doing private fundraisers, and did too little to (a) get her message out to the voters, (b) to be seen on TV, and (c) to attack Trump to prevent him from getting the exact respite which he has now used to turn things around.

4. Voters are tuning in more and more, and increased rates of voter engagement are likely to have an impact on the polls.

What are your thoughts on this analysis, and what are your own ideas on this question?

===========

https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...

That's because she is a reptilian.
If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand. - Friedman

Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. -Friedman

Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program. - Friedman

Society will never be free until the last Democrat is strangled with the entrails of the last Communist.
NHN
Posts: 624
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9/11/2016 12:42:06 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 9:57:19 PM, bsh1 wrote:
The whole point of this thread is that her bump, which you just admitted exist, has gone down, and it has gone down steadily and continues to trend downward from that high point. So, you kind of just admitted that I'm right...
I have already agreed to that, according to your definition and interval. But as the U.S. relies on the electoral college, you can't solely go by the popular vote in estimating the state of the race. The chance of winning is the same now as then (see above).

You are being highly specific in the dates you survey to deliberately avoid admitting that you're wrong...which is intellecutally dishonest.

Hillary is down from her August high--her bump has fallen rather than plateaued, and Trump is now 3-points closer. Nit-pick all you want in order to preserve your illusion, but this is fact, and a fact everyone else can recognize.
You're missing the point here. I acknowledge your position, although I disagree with the conclusion as I find it unsatisfactory. In its place, I have presented what I consider a relevant interval -- from convention bump to post-convention bump -- and provided data in support of my position (see above).
brontoraptor
Posts: 11,685
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9/12/2016 4:03:27 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/10/2016 11:55:09 PM, bballcrook21 wrote:
At 9/10/2016 4:02:50 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Chris recently asked me what my thoughts were on this, and I think it is an interesting question. Clinton was 6-9 points ahead in the weeks immediate following the Democratic Convention, due in large part to Trump's enforced errors. Now, however, I think most of us can acknowledge that the race has closed. Why is that?

I think it is for a few reasons:

1. Presidential races tend to narrow between the conventions and mid-October. This phenomenon was seen in 2012, 2008, 2004, and 1992 to varying degrees. [See Links]

2. Trump's new team seemed to reign him in, and he's been making fewer errors. This has given him an opening to turn the media cycles against Clinton and to launch his own attacks.

3. Hillary went AWOL in August. She focused too much on doing private fundraisers, and did too little to (a) get her message out to the voters, (b) to be seen on TV, and (c) to attack Trump to prevent him from getting the exact respite which he has now used to turn things around.

4. Voters are tuning in more and more, and increased rates of voter engagement are likely to have an impact on the polls.

What are your thoughts on this analysis, and what are your own ideas on this question?

===========

https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...

That's because she is a reptilian.

Here's her official site provided in a link in next post.
"What Donald Trump is doing is representing the absolute heartbreak, and anger, and frustration at a government gone mad."

http://youtu.be...
brontoraptor
Posts: 11,685
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9/12/2016 4:03:46 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
http://jackass.com...
"What Donald Trump is doing is representing the absolute heartbreak, and anger, and frustration at a government gone mad."

http://youtu.be...