Total Posts:12|Showing Posts:1-12
Jump to topic:

Biggest Casualty of Trump

slo1
Posts: 4,351
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 3:08:27 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
If you look at the congressional control market, it is a very pronounced down trend on the likelihood the R's keep control of House and Senate.

His inability to bring the party together is a very large problem in that Senate will go to the Dems.

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu...

Repercussions if he could win? His SCOUS nominees can be blocked. If Hillary wins, they get to put as liberal justice in play as they want.

This is the big race nobody is talking about because they are so fixated on Trump's and Hillary's shenanigans.
brontoraptor
Posts: 11,685
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 12:48:16 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
Trump manifested when kur government was controlled by a racial divider, an anti-American, and a person with ties and sympathies to Islamic terrorist groups based out of Chicago. 8 years of destroying the Middle East and overthrowing leaders as our nation went down the tubes made us sick. 8 more years like the last 8, and there may never be a United States again. Perhaps the Divided States of America.
"What Donald Trump is doing is representing the absolute heartbreak, and anger, and frustration at a government gone mad."

http://youtu.be...
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 2:06:43 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/12/2016 3:08:27 AM, slo1 wrote:
If you look at the congressional control market, it is a very pronounced down trend on the likelihood the R's keep control of House and Senate.

His inability to bring the party together is a very large problem in that Senate will go to the Dems.

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu...

Repercussions if he could win? His SCOUS nominees can be blocked. If Hillary wins, they get to put as liberal justice in play as they want.

This is the big race nobody is talking about because they are so fixated on Trump's and Hillary's shenanigans.

Down ballot is a mess for the GOP at this moment. We knew it was going to be, but I think it will be bigger than they had expected.

Trump has yet to build a real national campaign. In places where that money and organization were needed for congressional and senate races, it is just too late at this point. Further, Trump is no friend to the incumbent republicans. They are, in essence, running against the counter-insider message of Trump and their Democratic opponent.

The GOP is still very strong at the state level. They own that crap right now. This is where Democrats need to shift their focus next, but there is little doubt the GOP at the federal level is going to get its a$$ handed to them.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 2:31:33 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/12/2016 2:08:07 PM, Stymie13 wrote:
This election cycle shows just how divided this country is.

I don't know if it is any more divided now then any other time in my lifetime, but the divide is more hostile.

I have a theory why this is true, but it is unmistakably true. Trump is the manifestation of the anger from one side of the political spectrum.
Stymie13
Posts: 2,162
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 2:38:27 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/12/2016 2:31:33 PM, TBR wrote:
At 9/12/2016 2:08:07 PM, Stymie13 wrote:
This election cycle shows just how divided this country is.

I don't know if it is any more divided now then any other time in my lifetime, but the divide is more hostile.

I have a theory why this is true, but it is unmistakably true. Trump is the manifestation of the anger from one side of the political spectrum.

I am 43 and this is the most hostile I've ever seen this country. Granted I wasn't around in the Vietnam era but I've never seen the gulf between liberal/progressives, conservatives, AND independents such as myself so great.
NHN
Posts: 624
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 4:20:54 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/12/2016 3:08:27 AM, slo1 wrote:
If you look at the congressional control market, it is a very pronounced down trend on the likelihood the R's keep control of House and Senate.
Trump is toxic.

Democrats now have a 55% chance of winning the Senate (http://www.nytimes.com...). The most likely scenario is a 50/50 split where VP Tim Kaine ends up giving Democrats the majority in January.
Stymie13
Posts: 2,162
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 4:48:08 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
Hillary is toxic as well but does enjoy the benefit of a not as hostile media. Trump may, or may not, deserve that hostility but she is definitely reaping the benefits.
NHN
Posts: 624
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 4:52:50 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/12/2016 4:48:08 PM, Stymie13 wrote:
Hillary is toxic as well but does enjoy the benefit of a not as hostile media. Trump may, or may not, deserve that hostility but she is definitely reaping the benefits.
Hillary's worst performance regards her own campaign. But she isn't toxic in the House and Senate races, Trump is. The Republican +8 Senate majority will most likely be wiped out. Check out the link above for specifics.
slo1
Posts: 4,351
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 5:25:03 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/12/2016 4:20:54 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/12/2016 3:08:27 AM, slo1 wrote:
If you look at the congressional control market, it is a very pronounced down trend on the likelihood the R's keep control of House and Senate.
Trump is toxic.

Democrats now have a 55% chance of winning the Senate (http://www.nytimes.com...). The most likely scenario is a 50/50 split where VP Tim Kaine ends up giving Democrats the majority in January.

Good post. There seems to be a rather large discrepancy between the political market and the polls. I wonder what drives that.

A 50 split would be disaster for Dems if Trump won. On the other hand one can expect Trump would have significant trouble with a Republican majority house and senate. It could set up the Democrats in the mid term. That discussion is better saved for later as there are many ifs.
NHN
Posts: 624
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
9/12/2016 5:55:27 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/12/2016 5:25:03 PM, slo1 wrote:
Good post. There seems to be a rather large discrepancy between the political market and the polls. I wonder what drives that.
Thanks. We should ignore the day-to-day polls at this point and instead rely on forecasters (who rely on a "poll of polls").

The link above shows us that Clinton has 903 ways to win, Trump 111. All Clinton needs to win the presidency is to claim Virginia (91%), Pennsylvania (88%), Michigan (81%), and Wisconsin (80%) while still losing Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and all the other close states.

She will literally have to drop the ball not to win this.

A 50 split would be disaster for Dems if Trump won. On the other hand one can expect Trump would have significant trouble with a Republican majority house and senate. It could set up the Democrats in the mid term. That discussion is better saved for later as there are many ifs.
Agreed.