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What happens if Hillary dies or drops out?

Blade-of-Truth
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9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
I'm sure I could google this and find an adequate response but I want to pose this issue to my fellow DDO members.

Let's say Hillary dies or drops out next week, what happens then?

Would the DNC give Bernie the green flag, or would Hillary's VP choice be the next option?

Would the election be postponed?

Would this be an inside choice made by the establishment/oligarchy or would the people get to hold a general election to choose who would be the democratic candidate?
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ThinkBig
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9/14/2016 3:05:17 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
I'm sure I could google this and find an adequate response but I want to pose this issue to my fellow DDO members.

Let's say Hillary dies or drops out next week, what happens then?

Would the DNC give Bernie the green flag, or would Hillary's VP choice be the next option?

Would the election be postponed?

Would this be an inside choice made by the establishment/oligarchy or would the people get to hold a general election to choose who would be the democratic candidate?

Very unlikely for Clinton to drop out. As per the Constitution, the election will not be postponed.

Here's a pretty good analysis on what happens. Basically it would probably be Joe Biden as the party's nominee.

http://www.businessinsider.com...
ThinkBig
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1harderthanyouthink
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9/14/2016 3:22:41 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
If the DNC wants to lose, they'll go put Biden up there. However, I do think they have some brains and would ask Sanders to take the (re-)nomination. It probably just wouldn't go well to nominate someone who had not received a single delegate.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
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brontoraptor
Posts: 11,685
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9/14/2016 10:57:24 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
I'm sure I could google this and find an adequate response but I want to pose this issue to my fellow DDO members.

Let's say Hillary dies or drops out next week, what happens then?

Would the DNC give Bernie the green flag, or would Hillary's VP choice be the next option?

Would the election be postponed?

Would this be an inside choice made by the establishment/oligarchy or would the people get to hold a general election to choose who would be the democratic candidate?

Body double or computer generated Hillary that no one ever sees in public anymore.
"What Donald Trump is doing is representing the absolute heartbreak, and anger, and frustration at a government gone mad."

http://youtu.be...
NHN
Posts: 624
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9/14/2016 12:47:51 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
[...]
I expect topics like these from maniacal conspiracy theorists, delusional extremists, and brontoraptors -- I don't expect them from the site's Deputy Vote Moderator.

That is part of the reason why people, me included, ultimately avoid debates. They are seen as little more than a buddy contest where the argumentation has no bearing whatsoever.
kevin24018
Posts: 1,818
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9/14/2016 1:12:04 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 12:47:51 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
[...]
I expect topics like these from maniacal conspiracy theorists, delusional extremists, and brontoraptors -- I don't expect them from the site's Deputy Vote Moderator.

That is part of the reason why people, me included, ultimately avoid debates. They are seen as little more than a buddy contest where the argumentation has no bearing whatsoever.

wow were you bullied as a child? would you like to talk about it?
Biden never ran, since you have to announce you are running, isn't there a cutoff dead line? Since McCain is her v.p. choice, he would take over if it happened while in office, I wonder if it would still apply in some way.
NHN
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9/14/2016 1:19:32 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 1:12:04 PM, kevin24018 wrote:
At 9/14/2016 12:47:51 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
[...]
I expect topics like these from maniacal conspiracy theorists, delusional extremists, and brontoraptors -- I don't expect them from the site's Deputy Vote Moderator.

That is part of the reason why people, me included, ultimately avoid debates. They are seen as little more than a buddy contest where the argumentation has no bearing whatsoever.

wow were you bullied as a child? would you like to talk about it?
Interesting read there, slick. No projection at all.

And you can ignore it all you want. It doesn't make it any less true. There's no point in debating when those who oversee the voting are fundamentally flawed individuals. It turns into a Stalinist enigma where "it is not the people who vote that count, but the people who count the votes."
Stymie13
Posts: 2,162
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9/14/2016 1:21:39 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
Donna Brazile, head of the dnc, would call a party convention and they would have an open vote on a replacement. Party bylaws state 'the dnc has the power to fill vacancies in the president and vice presidency'...
kevin24018
Posts: 1,818
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9/14/2016 1:33:15 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 1:19:32 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/14/2016 1:12:04 PM, kevin24018 wrote:
At 9/14/2016 12:47:51 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
[...]
I expect topics like these from maniacal conspiracy theorists, delusional extremists, and brontoraptors -- I don't expect them from the site's Deputy Vote Moderator.

That is part of the reason why people, me included, ultimately avoid debates. They are seen as little more than a buddy contest where the argumentation has no bearing whatsoever.

wow were you bullied as a child? would you like to talk about it?
Interesting read there, slick. No projection at all.

And you can ignore it all you want. It doesn't make it any less true. There's no point in debating when those who oversee the voting are fundamentally flawed individuals. It turns into a Stalinist enigma where "it is not the people who vote that count, but the people who count the votes."

it is purely hypothetical and more of a discussion on what iffs than a debate, although the debate could form as to what should happen should the hypothetical events actually occur.
TBR
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9/14/2016 2:09:37 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 1:12:04 PM, kevin24018 wrote:
At 9/14/2016 12:47:51 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
[...]
I expect topics like these from maniacal conspiracy theorists, delusional extremists, and brontoraptors -- I don't expect them from the site's Deputy Vote Moderator.

That is part of the reason why people, me included, ultimately avoid debates. They are seen as little more than a buddy contest where the argumentation has no bearing whatsoever.

wow were you bullied as a child? would you like to talk about it?
Biden never ran, since you have to announce you are running, isn't there a cutoff dead line? Since McCain is her v.p. choice, he would take over if it happened while in office, I wonder if it would still apply in some way.

McCain? Do you mean Kaine?
kevin24018
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9/14/2016 2:39:52 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 2:09:37 PM, TBR wrote:
At 9/14/2016 1:12:04 PM, kevin24018 wrote:
At 9/14/2016 12:47:51 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
[...]
I expect topics like these from maniacal conspiracy theorists, delusional extremists, and brontoraptors -- I don't expect them from the site's Deputy Vote Moderator.

That is part of the reason why people, me included, ultimately avoid debates. They are seen as little more than a buddy contest where the argumentation has no bearing whatsoever.

wow were you bullied as a child? would you like to talk about it?
Biden never ran, since you have to announce you are running, isn't there a cutoff dead line? Since McCain is her v.p. choice, he would take over if it happened while in office, I wonder if it would still apply in some way.

McCain? Do you mean Kaine?

Yes, thank you.
BrendanD19
Posts: 2,047
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9/14/2016 4:06:10 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
I'm sure I could google this and find an adequate response but I want to pose this issue to my fellow DDO members.

Let's say Hillary dies or drops out next week, what happens then?

Would the DNC give Bernie the green flag, or would Hillary's VP choice be the next option?

Would the election be postponed?

Would this be an inside choice made by the establishment/oligarchy or would the people get to hold a general election to choose who would be the democratic candidate?

It's too late to have a new nominee, most state ballot access deadlines have passed. It would come down to the electoral college and the DNC would likely leave it up to them to decide.
Remember we don't elect the president, we vote for electors who pick the president, so it would be up to them to decide if a candidate died or dropped out.
The other option is that they could endorse either Gary Johnson or Jill Stein and all Clintons supporters could vote for them, as they are the only other viable options.
Blade-of-Truth
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9/16/2016 5:27:44 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 3:05:17 AM, ThinkBig wrote:
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
I'm sure I could google this and find an adequate response but I want to pose this issue to my fellow DDO members.

Let's say Hillary dies or drops out next week, what happens then?

Would the DNC give Bernie the green flag, or would Hillary's VP choice be the next option?

Would the election be postponed?

Would this be an inside choice made by the establishment/oligarchy or would the people get to hold a general election to choose who would be the democratic candidate?

Very unlikely for Clinton to drop out. As per the Constitution, the election will not be postponed.

Here's a pretty good analysis on what happens. Basically it would probably be Joe Biden as the party's nominee.

http://www.businessinsider.com...

The Democratic Party's rules, which are similar to the Republican party's, state that the party chairperson would have to call a special meeting to fill any vacancy on the national ticket, according to AFP. The decision on who should fill the vacancy would be based on a majority vote from those who attend the meeting.

Oh wow, so the next choice would be determined by the participants in that meeting... that's interesting. What makes you think the DNC insiders would choose Biden though?
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ThinkBig
Posts: 1,573
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9/16/2016 5:29:01 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 5:27:44 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 9/14/2016 3:05:17 AM, ThinkBig wrote:
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
I'm sure I could google this and find an adequate response but I want to pose this issue to my fellow DDO members.

Let's say Hillary dies or drops out next week, what happens then?

Would the DNC give Bernie the green flag, or would Hillary's VP choice be the next option?

Would the election be postponed?

Would this be an inside choice made by the establishment/oligarchy or would the people get to hold a general election to choose who would be the democratic candidate?

Very unlikely for Clinton to drop out. As per the Constitution, the election will not be postponed.

Here's a pretty good analysis on what happens. Basically it would probably be Joe Biden as the party's nominee.

http://www.businessinsider.com...

The Democratic Party's rules, which are similar to the Republican party's, state that the party chairperson would have to call a special meeting to fill any vacancy on the national ticket, according to AFP. The decision on who should fill the vacancy would be based on a majority vote from those who attend the meeting.

Oh wow, so the next choice would be determined by the participants in that meeting... that's interesting. What makes you think the DNC insiders would choose Biden though?

It's the most logical choice. He's well known, generally well liked, and is the sitting Vice President.

The only person I can see them choosing over him is Tim Kaine, the VP nominee.
ThinkBig
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Notable Notes and Quotable Quotes
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"I GOT SIG'D"
"WELL FVCK ME IN THE A$SHOLE AND CALL ME A CUCK I GOT SIG'D AGAIN"
-Kiri
If anyone's getting modkilled, it's kiri. Just for his sig.
-7th
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Need a judge or vote? Nominate me!!
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Blade-of-Truth
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9/16/2016 5:29:59 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 3:22:41 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
If the DNC wants to lose, they'll go put Biden up there. However, I do think they have some brains and would ask Sanders to take the (re-)nomination. It probably just wouldn't go well to nominate someone who had not received a single delegate.

I'm inclined to agree with you on the underlined portion, but I've actually heard alot of democrats say that would have gotten behind Biden had he ran. Do you think it'd just be too late for him to garner the support necessary, hence making Sanders a wiser choice due to popularity and recent support?
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Blade-of-Truth
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9/16/2016 5:32:57 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 10:57:24 AM, brontoraptor wrote:
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
I'm sure I could google this and find an adequate response but I want to pose this issue to my fellow DDO members.

Let's say Hillary dies or drops out next week, what happens then?

Would the DNC give Bernie the green flag, or would Hillary's VP choice be the next option?

Would the election be postponed?

Would this be an inside choice made by the establishment/oligarchy or would the people get to hold a general election to choose who would be the democratic candidate?

Body double or computer generated Hillary that no one ever sees in public anymore.

I don't think we have the technology for a mobile hologram Hillary just yet. It's a cool stage trick at concerts (the Tupac hologram comes to mind), but it's not quite there yet for Presidential quality and demands. As for a body double, there's already images floating around of a supposed body double but again, I don't think it's very practical and with HD video recording devices available to the masses I'm sure it'd be exposed sooner rather than later.
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Blade-of-Truth
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9/16/2016 5:41:18 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 12:47:51 PM, NHN wrote:
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
[...]
I expect topics like these from maniacal conspiracy theorists, delusional extremists, and brontoraptors -- I don't expect them from the site's Deputy Vote Moderator.

I think it's a perfectly valid inquiry considering the recent spike in Hillary's health issues. We've yet to have a modern nominee with comparable health issues.

That is part of the reason why people, me included, ultimately avoid debates. They are seen as little more than a buddy contest where the argumentation has no bearing whatsoever.

I don't see how this has anything to do with that. My position, specifically, is to contact members who've had their votes removed while explaining why, and, if they desire, I also recommend ways in which they can improve their vote quality and avoid issues in the future. Sometimes I also evaluate votes myself if there is a conflict of interest with the other moderators, but again, I don't see how that's connected to this in any way.
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Blade-of-Truth
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9/16/2016 5:44:01 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 1:21:39 PM, Stymie13 wrote:
Donna Brazile, head of the dnc, would call a party convention and they would have an open vote on a replacement. Party bylaws state 'the dnc has the power to fill vacancies in the president and vice presidency'...

Yeah, ThinkBig shared a Businessinsider article that I perused and learned that from. It's interesting that their open vote has no restrictions or stipulations in itself, basically just whoever the majority at that meeting choose is the nominee.
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Blade-of-Truth
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9/16/2016 5:46:17 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 5:29:01 AM, ThinkBig wrote:
At 9/16/2016 5:27:44 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 9/14/2016 3:05:17 AM, ThinkBig wrote:
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
I'm sure I could google this and find an adequate response but I want to pose this issue to my fellow DDO members.

Let's say Hillary dies or drops out next week, what happens then?

Would the DNC give Bernie the green flag, or would Hillary's VP choice be the next option?

Would the election be postponed?

Would this be an inside choice made by the establishment/oligarchy or would the people get to hold a general election to choose who would be the democratic candidate?

Very unlikely for Clinton to drop out. As per the Constitution, the election will not be postponed.

Here's a pretty good analysis on what happens. Basically it would probably be Joe Biden as the party's nominee.

http://www.businessinsider.com...

The Democratic Party's rules, which are similar to the Republican party's, state that the party chairperson would have to call a special meeting to fill any vacancy on the national ticket, according to AFP. The decision on who should fill the vacancy would be based on a majority vote from those who attend the meeting.

Oh wow, so the next choice would be determined by the participants in that meeting... that's interesting. What makes you think the DNC insiders would choose Biden though?

It's the most logical choice. He's well known, generally well liked, and is the sitting Vice President.

I certainly can't disagree with that. I would, honestly, strongly consider him if he was thrown into the mix.

The only person I can see them choosing over him is Tim Kaine, the VP nominee.

Yeah, that's what I'd assume as well. Poor Bernie though, lol.
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ThinkBig
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9/16/2016 5:47:35 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 5:46:17 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 9/16/2016 5:29:01 AM, ThinkBig wrote:
At 9/16/2016 5:27:44 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 9/14/2016 3:05:17 AM, ThinkBig wrote:
At 9/14/2016 2:36:22 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
I'm sure I could google this and find an adequate response but I want to pose this issue to my fellow DDO members.

Let's say Hillary dies or drops out next week, what happens then?

Would the DNC give Bernie the green flag, or would Hillary's VP choice be the next option?

Would the election be postponed?

Would this be an inside choice made by the establishment/oligarchy or would the people get to hold a general election to choose who would be the democratic candidate?

Very unlikely for Clinton to drop out. As per the Constitution, the election will not be postponed.

Here's a pretty good analysis on what happens. Basically it would probably be Joe Biden as the party's nominee.

http://www.businessinsider.com...

The Democratic Party's rules, which are similar to the Republican party's, state that the party chairperson would have to call a special meeting to fill any vacancy on the national ticket, according to AFP. The decision on who should fill the vacancy would be based on a majority vote from those who attend the meeting.

Oh wow, so the next choice would be determined by the participants in that meeting... that's interesting. What makes you think the DNC insiders would choose Biden though?

It's the most logical choice. He's well known, generally well liked, and is the sitting Vice President.

I certainly can't disagree with that. I would, honestly, strongly consider him if he was thrown into the mix.

Had Biden ran, I would probably have voted for him over Hillary Clinton in the primary. He would be a far stronger candidate, given how unpopular Clinton is.


The only person I can see them choosing over him is Tim Kaine, the VP nominee.

Yeah, that's what I'd assume as well. Poor Bernie though, lol.

I liked Bernie, the problem is he is too far left for the Democrats to choose at this point. Hopefully one day...
ThinkBig
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Notable Notes and Quotable Quotes
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"I GOT SIG'D"
"WELL FVCK ME IN THE A$SHOLE AND CALL ME A CUCK I GOT SIG'D AGAIN"
-Kiri
If anyone's getting modkilled, it's kiri. Just for his sig.
-7th
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Need a judge or vote? Nominate me!!
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1harderthanyouthink
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9/16/2016 5:55:44 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 5:29:59 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 9/14/2016 3:22:41 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
If the DNC wants to lose, they'll go put Biden up there. However, I do think they have some brains and would ask Sanders to take the (re-)nomination. It probably just wouldn't go well to nominate someone who had not received a single delegate.

I'm inclined to agree with you on the underlined portion, but I've actually heard alot of democrats say that would have gotten behind Biden had he ran. Do you think it'd just be too late for him to garner the support necessary, hence making Sanders a wiser choice due to popularity and recent support?

Yes. If Biden ran, this is probably how it would have went.

Biden would have brought huge attention to the debates. Most people like, if not love him. By around December, it would look around 40-30-20-10: Clinton-Biden-Sanders-undecided. As the early primaries roll around, it would probably be a 33-all thing in Iowa, or around what happened in 08 (39 Obama, 30 Edwards, 29 Clinton). Sanders would get more national attention from debates, but Biden would pull more moderate young people, as well as more left-leaning Clinton supporters. In New Hampshire, Bernie would probably win to a similar effect as he did vs Clinton - probably about 50-30-20 Sanders-Biden-Clinton. The real change would happen in the south. As South Carolina comes around - it wouldn't be anything like 75-25 Clinton: it would be more like 45-40-15 in favor of Clinton. Southern state delegate count wouldn't look a whole lot different for Bernie - but they would for Clinton: and she won because of the south.

However, Bernie's (y)uge wins would be diminished. A 75% in Washington might be a 60%. Same goes for states like Hawaii, Utah, etc. On the other hand, he might have had a better chance of winning states like Massachusetts, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York because of moderate vote splitting. He would have at least had a better proportion of delegates in those states.

Biden would really affect the race among white males. White males hate Hillary. White males love Bernie and Biden. Hillary would have had no white males, and would be screaming to Hispanics and blacks to turn out. It would be a war between Biden and Clinton, and the DNC would have inner conflict on who to rig it for: DWS might be ousted earlier by discontented Biden supporters.

In the end, Hispanics and blacks do not turn out to vote (especially in primaries) unless a black 40 year old Chicagoan is available as an option.

Biden in the race would have ended Clinton's hopes because she'd lose way too many whites and "well, Bernie's really sincere and I like him, but I'm not sure if I can take the risk" voters. Biden would win several contests by slim margins, and be competitive in every one. Bernie would have better name recognition earlier due to more televised debates not on Saturday night with Big Daddy Joe on the air. More people would turn out to vote in such an exciting primary with two beloved old white males - a socialist populist Jew and a centre-left guy that likes sunglasses, and the boring Clinton.

I'd give Biden a 60% shot of winning, Bernie a 40%, and Clinton a 0% chance in the scenario.

But that didn't happen. He didn't run - and fair enough, after his son died. He does not have the base of support that would come with a primary. Hillary voters would change, but Bernie voters wouldn't - they would if he ran, though. Even if the DNC wants to give it to him, though, I'm not sure he would accept it. I think it's likely he'd say no - he favored Sanders over Clinton. He openly expresses admiration for Sanders' unabashed populist style, and I'm not sure he would do something like take a nomination Bernie was deservedly next in line for.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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9/16/2016 5:57:21 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
That's why Obama reportedly told Biden that he should stay out of the race in early 2015.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
1harderthanyouthink
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9/16/2016 6:12:49 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
http://www.debate.org...
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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Blade-of-Truth
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9/16/2016 6:33:16 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 5:55:44 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 9/16/2016 5:29:59 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 9/14/2016 3:22:41 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
If the DNC wants to lose, they'll go put Biden up there. However, I do think they have some brains and would ask Sanders to take the (re-)nomination. It probably just wouldn't go well to nominate someone who had not received a single delegate.

I'm inclined to agree with you on the underlined portion, but I've actually heard alot of democrats say that would have gotten behind Biden had he ran. Do you think it'd just be too late for him to garner the support necessary, hence making Sanders a wiser choice due to popularity and recent support?

Yes. If Biden ran, this is probably how it would have went.

Biden would have brought huge attention to the debates. Most people like, if not love him. By around December, it would look around 40-30-20-10: Clinton-Biden-Sanders-undecided. As the early primaries roll around, it would probably be a 33-all thing in Iowa, or around what happened in 08 (39 Obama, 30 Edwards, 29 Clinton). Sanders would get more national attention from debates, but Biden would pull more moderate young people, as well as more left-leaning Clinton supporters. In New Hampshire, Bernie would probably win to a similar effect as he did vs Clinton - probably about 50-30-20 Sanders-Biden-Clinton. The real change would happen in the south. As South Carolina comes around - it wouldn't be anything like 75-25 Clinton: it would be more like 45-40-15 in favor of Clinton. Southern state delegate count wouldn't look a whole lot different for Bernie - but they would for Clinton: and she won because of the south.

However, Bernie's (y)uge wins would be diminished. A 75% in Washington might be a 60%. Same goes for states like Hawaii, Utah, etc. On the other hand, he might have had a better chance of winning states like Massachusetts, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York because of moderate vote splitting. He would have at least had a better proportion of delegates in those states.

Biden would really affect the race among white males. White males hate Hillary. White males love Bernie and Biden. Hillary would have had no white males, and would be screaming to Hispanics and blacks to turn out. It would be a war between Biden and Clinton, and the DNC would have inner conflict on who to rig it for: DWS might be ousted earlier by discontented Biden supporters.

In the end, Hispanics and blacks do not turn out to vote (especially in primaries) unless a black 40 year old Chicagoan is available as an option.

Biden in the race would have ended Clinton's hopes because she'd lose way too many whites and "well, Bernie's really sincere and I like him, but I'm not sure if I can take the risk" voters. Biden would win several contests by slim margins, and be competitive in every one. Bernie would have better name recognition earlier due to more televised debates not on Saturday night with Big Daddy Joe on the air. More people would turn out to vote in such an exciting primary with two beloved old white males - a socialist populist Jew and a centre-left guy that likes sunglasses, and the boring Clinton.

I'd give Biden a 60% shot of winning, Bernie a 40%, and Clinton a 0% chance in the scenario.

But that didn't happen. He didn't run - and fair enough, after his son died. He does not have the base of support that would come with a primary. Hillary voters would change, but Bernie voters wouldn't - they would if he ran, though. Even if the DNC wants to give it to him, though, I'm not sure he would accept it. I think it's likely he'd say no - he favored Sanders over Clinton. He openly expresses admiration for Sanders' unabashed populist style, and I'm not sure he would do something like take a nomination Bernie was deservedly next in line for.

This was an astute presentation of what might have happened, and I appreciate you sharing it. I also agree with your conclusion on him most likely turning it down even if offered at this point.

With all that said, I sincerely think you should look into double-majoring in Political-Science and Communication in College. You'd make for a fine political pundit in my honest opinion and it seems you have the patience and interest to do so as well.
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9/16/2016 6:58:14 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 6:33:16 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 9/16/2016 5:55:44 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 9/16/2016 5:29:59 AM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
At 9/14/2016 3:22:41 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
If the DNC wants to lose, they'll go put Biden up there. However, I do think they have some brains and would ask Sanders to take the (re-)nomination. It probably just wouldn't go well to nominate someone who had not received a single delegate.

I'm inclined to agree with you on the underlined portion, but I've actually heard alot of democrats say that would have gotten behind Biden had he ran. Do you think it'd just be too late for him to garner the support necessary, hence making Sanders a wiser choice due to popularity and recent support?

Yes. If Biden ran, this is probably how it would have went.

Biden would have brought huge attention to the debates. Most people like, if not love him. By around December, it would look around 40-30-20-10: Clinton-Biden-Sanders-undecided. As the early primaries roll around, it would probably be a 33-all thing in Iowa, or around what happened in 08 (39 Obama, 30 Edwards, 29 Clinton). Sanders would get more national attention from debates, but Biden would pull more moderate young people, as well as more left-leaning Clinton supporters. In New Hampshire, Bernie would probably win to a similar effect as he did vs Clinton - probably about 50-30-20 Sanders-Biden-Clinton. The real change would happen in the south. As South Carolina comes around - it wouldn't be anything like 75-25 Clinton: it would be more like 45-40-15 in favor of Clinton. Southern state delegate count wouldn't look a whole lot different for Bernie - but they would for Clinton: and she won because of the south.

However, Bernie's (y)uge wins would be diminished. A 75% in Washington might be a 60%. Same goes for states like Hawaii, Utah, etc. On the other hand, he might have had a better chance of winning states like Massachusetts, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York because of moderate vote splitting. He would have at least had a better proportion of delegates in those states.

Biden would really affect the race among white males. White males hate Hillary. White males love Bernie and Biden. Hillary would have had no white males, and would be screaming to Hispanics and blacks to turn out. It would be a war between Biden and Clinton, and the DNC would have inner conflict on who to rig it for: DWS might be ousted earlier by discontented Biden supporters.

In the end, Hispanics and blacks do not turn out to vote (especially in primaries) unless a black 40 year old Chicagoan is available as an option.

Biden in the race would have ended Clinton's hopes because she'd lose way too many whites and "well, Bernie's really sincere and I like him, but I'm not sure if I can take the risk" voters. Biden would win several contests by slim margins, and be competitive in every one. Bernie would have better name recognition earlier due to more televised debates not on Saturday night with Big Daddy Joe on the air. More people would turn out to vote in such an exciting primary with two beloved old white males - a socialist populist Jew and a centre-left guy that likes sunglasses, and the boring Clinton.

I'd give Biden a 60% shot of winning, Bernie a 40%, and Clinton a 0% chance in the scenario.

But that didn't happen. He didn't run - and fair enough, after his son died. He does not have the base of support that would come with a primary. Hillary voters would change, but Bernie voters wouldn't - they would if he ran, though. Even if the DNC wants to give it to him, though, I'm not sure he would accept it. I think it's likely he'd say no - he favored Sanders over Clinton. He openly expresses admiration for Sanders' unabashed populist style, and I'm not sure he would do something like take a nomination Bernie was deservedly next in line for.

This was an astute presentation of what might have happened, and I appreciate you sharing it. I also agree with your conclusion on him most likely turning it down even if offered at this point.

With all that said, I sincerely think you should look into double-majoring in Political-Science and Communication in College. You'd make for a fine political pundit in my honest opinion and it seems you have the patience and interest to do so as well.

Are you joking? I'd lose my sh!t on air...like Bill O'Reilly would look collected next to me.
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