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Most and Least popular Senators, 2016 races

1harderthanyouthink
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9/14/2016 8:26:50 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
Most popular Senator: Bernie Sanders: 87% approval
Least popular Senator: Mitch McConnell: 51% disapproval to 39% approval

Notable 2016 Senate incumbents with seats up for election:

Mark Kirk (R-IL): 39% disapproval to 35% approval (8th highest disapproval, lowest approval)
Marco Rubio (R-FL): 46% approval to 41% disapproval (5th highest disapproval)
John McCain (R-AZ): 48% approval to 42% disapproval (4th highest disapproval)
Patrick Toomey (R-PA): 43% approval to 36% disapproval
David Vitter (R-LA): 42% approval to 39% disapproval (7th highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 58% approval to 32% disapproval
Harry Reid (D-NV) 44% approval to 43% disapproval (3rd highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Rob Portman (R-OH) 40% approval to 31% disapproval (7th lowest approval)
Ron Johnson (R-WI) 45% approval to 33% disapproval
Richard Burr (R-NC) 41% approval to 33% disapproval
Daniel Coats (D-IN) 45% approval to 25% disapproval; not running for re-election

Thoughts on any of that?

Also, the Trump GOP has made this Senate race more wide open for Democrats than ever, and Indiana is light blue in the Senate predictions: and Coats not running for re-election may serve to further hurt the GOP in Indiana. The worst-case scenario for the GOP in the Senate months ago was probably a 53-54 seat majority for Democrats, and now the worst-case for them is about a 56-57 seat majority for Dems.
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1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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9/14/2016 8:35:52 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
One could say that Senate Republicans could distance themselves from Trump to save themselves, but that is equally as bad as endorsing him. For example, take Rob Portman's 4% approval drop:

Polls and above reference to previous polls:

https://morningconsult.com...
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
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PetersSmith
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9/14/2016 8:44:59 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 8:26:50 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Most popular Senator: Bernie Sanders: 87% approval
Least popular Senator: Mitch McConnell: 51% disapproval to 39% approval

Notable 2016 Senate incumbents with seats up for election:

Mark Kirk (R-IL): 39% disapproval to 35% approval (8th highest disapproval, lowest approval)
Marco Rubio (R-FL): 46% approval to 41% disapproval (5th highest disapproval)
John McCain (R-AZ): 48% approval to 42% disapproval (4th highest disapproval)
Patrick Toomey (R-PA): 43% approval to 36% disapproval
David Vitter (R-LA): 42% approval to 39% disapproval (7th highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 58% approval to 32% disapproval
Harry Reid (D-NV) 44% approval to 43% disapproval (3rd highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Rob Portman (R-OH) 40% approval to 31% disapproval (7th lowest approval)
Ron Johnson (R-WI) 45% approval to 33% disapproval
Richard Burr (R-NC) 41% approval to 33% disapproval
Daniel Coats (D-IN) 45% approval to 25% disapproval; not running for re-election

Thoughts on any of that?

Also, the Trump GOP has made this Senate race more wide open for Democrats than ever, and Indiana is light blue in the Senate predictions: and Coats not running for re-election may serve to further hurt the GOP in Indiana. The worst-case scenario for the GOP in the Senate months ago was probably a 53-54 seat majority for Democrats, and now the worst-case for them is about a 56-57 seat majority for Dems.

Bit shocked by McCain being so high.
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Capital
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9/14/2016 8:48:02 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 8:26:50 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Most popular Senator: Bernie Sanders: 87% approval
Least popular Senator: Mitch McConnell: 51% disapproval to 39% approval

Notable 2016 Senate incumbents with seats up for election:

Mark Kirk (R-IL): 39% disapproval to 35% approval (8th highest disapproval, lowest approval)
Marco Rubio (R-FL): 46% approval to 41% disapproval (5th highest disapproval)
John McCain (R-AZ): 48% approval to 42% disapproval (4th highest disapproval)
Patrick Toomey (R-PA): 43% approval to 36% disapproval
David Vitter (R-LA): 42% approval to 39% disapproval (7th highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 58% approval to 32% disapproval
Harry Reid (D-NV) 44% approval to 43% disapproval (3rd highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Rob Portman (R-OH) 40% approval to 31% disapproval (7th lowest approval)
Ron Johnson (R-WI) 45% approval to 33% disapproval
Richard Burr (R-NC) 41% approval to 33% disapproval
Daniel Coats (D-IN) 45% approval to 25% disapproval; not running for re-election

Thoughts on any of that?

Also, the Trump GOP has made this Senate race more wide open for Democrats than ever, and Indiana is light blue in the Senate predictions: and Coats not running for re-election may serve to further hurt the GOP in Indiana. The worst-case scenario for the GOP in the Senate months ago was probably a 53-54 seat majority for Democrats, and now the worst-case for them is about a 56-57 seat majority for Dems.

Was sad to see America go red. Now I'm sad to see it go back to Blue
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ColeTrain
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9/15/2016 8:56:34 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 8:26:50 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:

I still think the GOP will hold the majority.
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1harderthanyouthink
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9/15/2016 9:43:21 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/15/2016 8:56:34 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/14/2016 8:26:50 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:

I still think the GOP will hold the majority.

I don't think so. The GOP (and its Senators) are simply too unpopular.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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ColeTrain
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9/15/2016 9:56:15 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/15/2016 9:43:21 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 9/15/2016 8:56:34 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/14/2016 8:26:50 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:

I still think the GOP will hold the majority.

I don't think so. The GOP (and its Senators) are simply too unpopular.

Time will tell. Either way, it's going to be an interesting election year, both presidential, in the Senate, and in governor races.
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
teddy2013
Posts: 119
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9/15/2016 10:59:37 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/14/2016 8:26:50 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Most popular Senator: Bernie Sanders: 87% approval
Least popular Senator: Mitch McConnell: 51% disapproval to 39% approval

Notable 2016 Senate incumbents with seats up for election:

Mark Kirk (R-IL): 39% disapproval to 35% approval (8th highest disapproval, lowest approval)
Marco Rubio (R-FL): 46% approval to 41% disapproval (5th highest disapproval)
John McCain (R-AZ): 48% approval to 42% disapproval (4th highest disapproval)
Patrick Toomey (R-PA): 43% approval to 36% disapproval
David Vitter (R-LA): 42% approval to 39% disapproval (7th highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 58% approval to 32% disapproval
Harry Reid (D-NV) 44% approval to 43% disapproval (3rd highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Rob Portman (R-OH) 40% approval to 31% disapproval (7th lowest approval)
Ron Johnson (R-WI) 45% approval to 33% disapproval
Richard Burr (R-NC) 41% approval to 33% disapproval
Daniel Coats (D-IN) 45% approval to 25% disapproval; not running for re-election

Thoughts on any of that?

Also, the Trump GOP has made this Senate race more wide open for Democrats than ever, and Indiana is light blue in the Senate predictions: and Coats not running for re-election may serve to further hurt the GOP in Indiana. The worst-case scenario for the GOP in the Senate months ago was probably a 53-54 seat majority for Democrats, and now the worst-case for them is about a 56-57 seat majority for Dems.

This is how the toss up races go

Duckworth wins Illonois
Bayh wins Indiana
Ayotte wins NH
Rubio winsFlorida
Toomey wins Pennsylvania
Burr win NC
McCain wins AZ.
Feingold wins Wisconsin
Masto wins NV

End result 51 Republicans, 49 Dems, the Republicans increase their lead in 2018
1harderthanyouthink
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9/15/2016 11:01:18 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/15/2016 10:59:37 PM, teddy2013 wrote:
At 9/14/2016 8:26:50 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Most popular Senator: Bernie Sanders: 87% approval
Least popular Senator: Mitch McConnell: 51% disapproval to 39% approval

Notable 2016 Senate incumbents with seats up for election:

Mark Kirk (R-IL): 39% disapproval to 35% approval (8th highest disapproval, lowest approval)
Marco Rubio (R-FL): 46% approval to 41% disapproval (5th highest disapproval)
John McCain (R-AZ): 48% approval to 42% disapproval (4th highest disapproval)
Patrick Toomey (R-PA): 43% approval to 36% disapproval
David Vitter (R-LA): 42% approval to 39% disapproval (7th highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 58% approval to 32% disapproval
Harry Reid (D-NV) 44% approval to 43% disapproval (3rd highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Rob Portman (R-OH) 40% approval to 31% disapproval (7th lowest approval)
Ron Johnson (R-WI) 45% approval to 33% disapproval
Richard Burr (R-NC) 41% approval to 33% disapproval
Daniel Coats (D-IN) 45% approval to 25% disapproval; not running for re-election

Thoughts on any of that?

Also, the Trump GOP has made this Senate race more wide open for Democrats than ever, and Indiana is light blue in the Senate predictions: and Coats not running for re-election may serve to further hurt the GOP in Indiana. The worst-case scenario for the GOP in the Senate months ago was probably a 53-54 seat majority for Democrats, and now the worst-case for them is about a 56-57 seat majority for Dems.

This is how the toss up races go

Duckworth wins Illonois
Bayh wins Indiana
Ayotte wins NH
Rubio winsFlorida
Toomey wins Pennsylvania
Burr win NC
McCain wins AZ.
Feingold wins Wisconsin
Masto wins NV

End result 51 Republicans, 49 Dems, the Republicans increase their lead in 2018

Ayotte and Toomey are not going to win. I have them as some of the least likely to hold.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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teddy2013
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9/15/2016 11:10:15 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/15/2016 11:01:18 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 9/15/2016 10:59:37 PM, teddy2013 wrote:
At 9/14/2016 8:26:50 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Most popular Senator: Bernie Sanders: 87% approval
Least popular Senator: Mitch McConnell: 51% disapproval to 39% approval

Notable 2016 Senate incumbents with seats up for election:

Mark Kirk (R-IL): 39% disapproval to 35% approval (8th highest disapproval, lowest approval)
Marco Rubio (R-FL): 46% approval to 41% disapproval (5th highest disapproval)
John McCain (R-AZ): 48% approval to 42% disapproval (4th highest disapproval)
Patrick Toomey (R-PA): 43% approval to 36% disapproval
David Vitter (R-LA): 42% approval to 39% disapproval (7th highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 58% approval to 32% disapproval
Harry Reid (D-NV) 44% approval to 43% disapproval (3rd highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Rob Portman (R-OH) 40% approval to 31% disapproval (7th lowest approval)
Ron Johnson (R-WI) 45% approval to 33% disapproval
Richard Burr (R-NC) 41% approval to 33% disapproval
Daniel Coats (D-IN) 45% approval to 25% disapproval; not running for re-election

Thoughts on any of that?

Also, the Trump GOP has made this Senate race more wide open for Democrats than ever, and Indiana is light blue in the Senate predictions: and Coats not running for re-election may serve to further hurt the GOP in Indiana. The worst-case scenario for the GOP in the Senate months ago was probably a 53-54 seat majority for Democrats, and now the worst-case for them is about a 56-57 seat majority for Dems.

This is how the toss up races go

Duckworth wins Illonois
Bayh wins Indiana
Ayotte wins NH
Rubio winsFlorida
Toomey wins Pennsylvania
Burr win NC
McCain wins AZ.
Feingold wins Wisconsin
Masto wins NV

End result 51 Republicans, 49 Dems, the Republicans increase their lead in 2018

Ayotte and Toomey are not going to win. I have them as some of the least likely to hold.

We will find out in November. If you are right then the Senate flips. However Heck could also win in NV, and I would not rule out Kirk winning in IL. Any one of those 4 winning makes it 50-50, if two occur then were back to 59 R, 49 D, If it is 50-50 tie then who breaks the tie, Pence or Kaine?
1harderthanyouthink
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9/15/2016 11:21:36 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/15/2016 11:10:15 PM, teddy2013 wrote:
At 9/15/2016 11:01:18 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 9/15/2016 10:59:37 PM, teddy2013 wrote:
At 9/14/2016 8:26:50 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Most popular Senator: Bernie Sanders: 87% approval
Least popular Senator: Mitch McConnell: 51% disapproval to 39% approval

Notable 2016 Senate incumbents with seats up for election:

Mark Kirk (R-IL): 39% disapproval to 35% approval (8th highest disapproval, lowest approval)
Marco Rubio (R-FL): 46% approval to 41% disapproval (5th highest disapproval)
John McCain (R-AZ): 48% approval to 42% disapproval (4th highest disapproval)
Patrick Toomey (R-PA): 43% approval to 36% disapproval
David Vitter (R-LA): 42% approval to 39% disapproval (7th highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 58% approval to 32% disapproval
Harry Reid (D-NV) 44% approval to 43% disapproval (3rd highest disapproval); not running for re-election
Rob Portman (R-OH) 40% approval to 31% disapproval (7th lowest approval)
Ron Johnson (R-WI) 45% approval to 33% disapproval
Richard Burr (R-NC) 41% approval to 33% disapproval
Daniel Coats (D-IN) 45% approval to 25% disapproval; not running for re-election

Thoughts on any of that?

Also, the Trump GOP has made this Senate race more wide open for Democrats than ever, and Indiana is light blue in the Senate predictions: and Coats not running for re-election may serve to further hurt the GOP in Indiana. The worst-case scenario for the GOP in the Senate months ago was probably a 53-54 seat majority for Democrats, and now the worst-case for them is about a 56-57 seat majority for Dems.

This is how the toss up races go

Duckworth wins Illonois
Bayh wins Indiana
Ayotte wins NH
Rubio winsFlorida
Toomey wins Pennsylvania
Burr win NC
McCain wins AZ.
Feingold wins Wisconsin
Masto wins NV

End result 51 Republicans, 49 Dems, the Republicans increase their lead in 2018

Ayotte and Toomey are not going to win. I have them as some of the least likely to hold.

We will find out in November. If you are right then the Senate flips. However Heck could also win in NV, and I would not rule out Kirk winning in IL. Any one of those 4 winning makes it 50-50, if two occur then were back to 59 R, 49 D, If it is 50-50 tie then who breaks the tie, Pence or Kaine?

Kirk is about 100% likely to lose. Heck has about a 25% chance of winning - in a midterm year he'd have a better chance.

However, Toomey does not have the active support to win a Presidential year in Pennsylvania as a Republican.

Ayotte is in New Hampshire in a Presidential year - in 2008 the Dems won the Senate seat there 52-45. A Libertarian candidate took 3% from the GOP. She's also facing Governor Maggie Hassan, who has a higher approval rating than Ayotte. Ayotte also only has 75% of the funding Hassan has received. Not only that, New Hampshire loves to play with third parties. This year, there is a Libertarian candidate for the seat again, as well as an independent conservative running because Ayotte isn't right(-wing) enough. Between Brian Chabot (L) and Aaron Day (I), Ayotte could around 5% of the vote.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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lannan13
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9/15/2016 11:25:26 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
I'm quite sure that the Dems are going to retake the Senate this year.
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1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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9/15/2016 11:43:34 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
These are my ratings:

Arizona - 55% Republican
Florida - Even swing
Georgia - 90% Republican
Iowa - 60% Republican
Illinois - Blue
Indiana - 65% Democrat
Louisiana - 60% Republican
Missouri - 60% Republican
North Carolina - 60% Democrat
New Hampshire - 95% Democrat
Nevada - 70% Democrat
Ohio - Even swing
Pennsylvania - 80% Democrat
Wisconsin - Blue

If my predictions end up being correct, there would be a 52-46 Dem majority with two states left. The Dems and Republicans would have 11 100% chance states, 3 and 1 likely, respectively, and 2 and 4 lean, respectively.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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ColeTrain
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9/15/2016 11:49:36 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/15/2016 11:25:26 PM, lannan13 wrote:
I'm quite sure that the Dems are going to retake the Senate this year.

I'm not fully convinced. It's probably wishful thinking though... The future looks bleak.
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
teddy2013
Posts: 119
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9/16/2016 12:08:48 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/15/2016 11:43:34 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
These are my ratings:

Arizona - 55% Republican
Florida - Even swing
Georgia - 90% Republican
Iowa - 60% Republican
Illinois - Blue
Indiana - 65% Democrat
Louisiana - 60% Republican
Missouri - 60% Republican
North Carolina - 60% Democrat
New Hampshire - 95% Democrat
Nevada - 70% Democrat
Ohio - Even swing
Pennsylvania - 80% Democrat
Wisconsin - Blue

If my predictions end up being correct, there would be a 52-46 Dem majority with two states left. The Dems and Republicans would have 11 100% chance states, 3 and 1 likely, respectively, and 2 and 4 lean, respectively.

You have well thought out analysis. I will differ on a few predictions. I am from Ohio and I can report that Portman is considered likely to win, so much so that most analysts have moved it into his column. I would give FL to Rubio.

Have you seen the NH, NC, and Penn, polls lately?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

I realize Kirk is a longshot, but don't be too surprised. I think voters may reward his independent streak, as well as the personal adversity he has overcome.
1harderthanyouthink
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9/16/2016 12:29:45 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 12:08:48 AM, teddy2013 wrote:
At 9/15/2016 11:43:34 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
These are my ratings:

Arizona - 55% Republican
Florida - Even swing
Georgia - 90% Republican
Iowa - 60% Republican
Illinois - Blue
Indiana - 65% Democrat
Louisiana - 60% Republican
Missouri - 60% Republican
North Carolina - 60% Democrat
New Hampshire - 95% Democrat
Nevada - 70% Democrat
Ohio - Even swing
Pennsylvania - 80% Democrat
Wisconsin - Blue

If my predictions end up being correct, there would be a 52-46 Dem majority with two states left. The Dems and Republicans would have 11 100% chance states, 3 and 1 likely, respectively, and 2 and 4 lean, respectively.

You have well thought out analysis. I will differ on a few predictions. I am from Ohio and I can report that Portman is considered likely to win, so much so that most analysts have moved it into his column. I would give FL to Rubio.

Have you seen the NH, NC, and Penn, polls lately?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

I realize Kirk is a longshot, but don't be too surprised. I think voters may reward his independent streak, as well as the personal adversity he has overcome.

I know that Portman is considered likely to win. However, if not enough Trump Republicans forgive him on Election Day, he's screwed. He's going up against Strickland, who's apparently viewed about evenly in terms of favorable/unfavorable and has plenty of name recognition. Portman cannot afford to lose voters to the proclaimed alt-rightists.

Rubio is also in a similar Trump boat - the issue for him being there are more Trump supporting Republicans in Florida. Neither him nor Murphy have crossed 50%, but one of them will on election day. There's about 15-20% not even deciding in polls in Florida. Strickland is closer to 50 than Rubio in aggregates, but some polls have both candidates under 40 in Ohio, where there are none of those in Florida.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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1harderthanyouthink
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9/16/2016 12:42:45 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/15/2016 11:49:36 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/15/2016 11:25:26 PM, lannan13 wrote:
I'm quite sure that the Dems are going to retake the Senate this year.

I'm not fully convinced. It's probably wishful thinking though... The future looks bleak.

You'd better hope Clinton gets elected. Because if Trump does, you'll be looking at total Democratic control right after - a supermajority possibility if the Dems gain enough Senate seats despite losing the Presidency (I consider it a distinct chance Trump wins and the Dems take the Senate.

In 2018, if Trump wins, expect to lose Arizona and Nevada Senate seats, gain nothing, and then in 2020 expect to lose Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and chance losing Georgia, Louisiana, and West Virginia.

A Trump win would probably spell the unfathomable end of the GOP House and state legislature majority, and then the Dems would redistrict the fvck out of districts.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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1harderthanyouthink
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9/16/2016 12:48:09 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
Even fair districting would be a death blow to the GOP's government power.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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9/16/2016 12:59:47 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
Also, see Merrick Garland and Americans' view of the Supreme Court situation for more reason the Dems will retake the Senate.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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9/16/2016 1:01:14 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
Even red states have an unfavorable view of the Senate GOP's actions on the Supreme Court.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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ColeTrain
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9/16/2016 2:31:44 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 12:42:45 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 9/15/2016 11:49:36 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/15/2016 11:25:26 PM, lannan13 wrote:
I'm quite sure that the Dems are going to retake the Senate this year.

I'm not fully convinced. It's probably wishful thinking though... The future looks bleak.

You'd better hope Clinton gets elected. Because if Trump does, you'll be looking at total Democratic control right after - a supermajority possibility if the Dems gain enough Senate seats despite losing the Presidency (I consider it a distinct chance Trump wins and the Dems take the Senate.

Are you meaning immediately following his presidency or right after the election? Sorry, just need clarification there to respond.

In 2018, if Trump wins, expect to lose Arizona and Nevada Senate seats, gain nothing, and then in 2020 expect to lose Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and chance losing Georgia, Louisiana, and West Virginia.

I think it's entirely contingent upon how he does in office. I'm hoping, if he is elected, he'll do better than the skeptics think he will. Then again, his presidency will probably be a disaster. I guess it's better to prepare yourself for reality than hope it will be different.

A Trump win would probably spell the unfathomable end of the GOP House and state legislature majority, and then the Dems would redistrict.

Yeah, there's that risk for sure. I just don't see any outcome that's favorable in this election.
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
1harderthanyouthink
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9/16/2016 2:36:24 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 2:31:44 AM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2016 12:42:45 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 9/15/2016 11:49:36 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/15/2016 11:25:26 PM, lannan13 wrote:
I'm quite sure that the Dems are going to retake the Senate this year.

I'm not fully convinced. It's probably wishful thinking though... The future looks bleak.

You'd better hope Clinton gets elected. Because if Trump does, you'll be looking at total Democratic control right after - a supermajority possibility if the Dems gain enough Senate seats despite losing the Presidency (I consider it a distinct chance Trump wins and the Dems take the Senate.

Are you meaning immediately following his presidency or right after the election? Sorry, just need clarification there to respond.

It will get bad for Trump very quickly. Trump's effect after four years will be comparable to Bush after eight.

In 2018, if Trump wins, expect to lose Arizona and Nevada Senate seats, gain nothing, and then in 2020 expect to lose Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and chance losing Georgia, Louisiana, and West Virginia.

I think it's entirely contingent upon how he does in office. I'm hoping, if he is elected, he'll do better than the skeptics think he will. Then again, his presidency will probably be a disaster. I guess it's better to prepare yourself for reality than hope it will be different.

A Trump win would probably spell the unfathomable end of the GOP House and state legislature majority, and then the Dems would redistrict.

Yeah, there's that risk for sure. I just don't see any outcome that's favorable in this election.

For anyone, yes - there's a downside. Rightists have a choice between total Dem control after 4 years or grasping to some long-term control, and both leftists and rightists hate both candidates, and both Presidents would probably suck if they don't die in the first year.

The best outcome for America would be if Clinton had a major health event (such as a stroke or blood clot) and Trump had a heart attack before October 7th.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
ColeTrain
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9/16/2016 2:40:59 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 2:36:24 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 9/16/2016 2:31:44 AM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2016 12:42:45 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 9/15/2016 11:49:36 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/15/2016 11:25:26 PM, lannan13 wrote:
I'm quite sure that the Dems are going to retake the Senate this year.

I'm not fully convinced. It's probably wishful thinking though... The future looks bleak.

You'd better hope Clinton gets elected. Because if Trump does, you'll be looking at total Democratic control right after - a supermajority possibility if the Dems gain enough Senate seats despite losing the Presidency (I consider it a distinct chance Trump wins and the Dems take the Senate.

Are you meaning immediately following his presidency or right after the election? Sorry, just need clarification there to respond.

It will get bad for Trump very quickly. Trump's effect after four years will be comparable to Bush after eight.

Agreed. :(

In 2018, if Trump wins, expect to lose Arizona and Nevada Senate seats, gain nothing, and then in 2020 expect to lose Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and chance losing Georgia, Louisiana, and West Virginia.

I think it's entirely contingent upon how he does in office. I'm hoping, if he is elected, he'll do better than the skeptics think he will. Then again, his presidency will probably be a disaster. I guess it's better to prepare yourself for reality than hope it will be different.

A Trump win would probably spell the unfathomable end of the GOP House and state legislature majority, and then the Dems would redistrict.

Yeah, there's that risk for sure. I just don't see any outcome that's favorable in this election.

For anyone, yes - there's a downside. Rightists have a choice between total Dem control after 4 years or grasping to some long-term control, and both leftists and rightists hate both candidates, and both Presidents would probably suck if they don't die in the first year.

The best outcome for America would be if Clinton had a major health event (such as a stroke or blood clot) and Trump had a heart attack before October 7th.

It's all bad. But I don't wish death on anyone. We've put ourselves in this position, we'll have to climb out if it (if there's anything left to climb out of).
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
1harderthanyouthink
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9/16/2016 2:45:37 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 2:40:59 AM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2016 2:36:24 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
The best outcome for America would be if Clinton had a major health event (such as a stroke or blood clot) and Trump had a heart attack before October 7th.

It's all bad. But I don't wish death on anyone. We've put ourselves in this position, we'll have to climb out if it (if there's anything left to climb out of).

That's my position as well. I don't wish death upon them, but I'd be lying to your face if I said their deaths would be negative.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
ColeTrain
Posts: 4,306
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9/16/2016 2:46:45 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/16/2016 2:45:37 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 9/16/2016 2:40:59 AM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2016 2:36:24 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
The best outcome for America would be if Clinton had a major health event (such as a stroke or blood clot) and Trump had a heart attack before October 7th.

It's all bad. But I don't wish death on anyone. We've put ourselves in this position, we'll have to climb out if it (if there's anything left to climb out of).

That's my position as well. I don't wish death upon them, but I'd be lying to your face if I said their deaths would be negative.

Yeah. :/ It's unfortunate. At this point, the only thing I have left to do is pray.
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW