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The Truth Of The Welfare State

MakeSensePeopleDont
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9/24/2016 5:07:24 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
So I'll make this as short as possible, I can detail as requested.

1) The world is already over-populated
2) Governments are too worried about the backlash to tell the world we need to cut down on procreation.
3) Over-population is the cause for most, if not all major world problems
4) Technology and automation are eliminating jobs by the truck load
5) Western nations are pushing for a welfare state and single payer everything, even in the face of massive debt and inability to pay bills
6) Major companies like Target are investing in software, AI and robotics startups; some are even purchasing these startups outright
7) Commerce is moving from in-person to online with hour delivery times being tested by Amazon
8) Decreased and flexible work weeks being pushed for those who do work
9) Governments appear to be normalizing people being home more and more
10) I believe the governments of the modern world realize that we are coming to the point in which jobs will be almost non-existent due to technological advancements
11) Without a way to earn a living, the governments of the western nations will be required to find a solution to the ability of each person to live
12) A full welfare state, socialism style handout system for all is the only logical next step in cultural and societal evolution.

Thoughts?
Snazzy
Posts: 117
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9/24/2016 5:51:55 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/24/2016 5:07:24 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:

So your solution to people either not being smart enough to create/find jobs or just simply too lazy to find one is to take the money from the people who actually earned it and give it to them?

A "logical" solution for overpopulation is already in place. People are having abortions left and right whether we like it or not.

People sitting at home doing nothing is going to negatively contribute to our fight with obesity. Of course some people will spend their time exercising, but let's be real. Most people will sit in front of the television with a soda and a bag of chips all day.

There is one thing that will never go out of style: Good customer service. Most people would rather have a real person serving them than a robot. Engineering, programming, and other jobs are being created by all this new technology, it's not just jobs being depleted. If you don't want to work in any of those jobs, how about you become an entrepreneur?

Would you rather have a $50,000 and say to yourself "I made that.", or would you rather have to live with the fact the government gave you that money?
Disclaimer: This post in no way reflects the views of NBC or any of its affiliates.
MakeSensePeopleDont
Posts: 1,105
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9/24/2016 6:53:08 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/24/2016 5:51:55 PM, Snazzy wrote:
At 9/24/2016 5:07:24 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:

So your solution to people either not being smart enough to create/find jobs or just simply too lazy to find one is to take the money from the people who actually earned it and give it to them?


Well this is not at all what was said. I grew up with hard work and dedication influences, laziness gets checked in the delivery room when the doctor whacks your bottom. I grew up a work commute's distance from Amish town; so believe you me that I, in no way shape or form, support a "gimme, gimme, gimme" culture.

The premise of the thought experiment is that we are approaching a time in technological evolution in which automation and robotics are replacing the human labor force whether we like it or not.

A "logical" solution for overpopulation is already in place. People are having abortions left and right whether we like it or not.


Yet we still have a global birth / death ratio of 19 births to 8 deaths per 1,000 people; or a +2.375 population growth rate.

People sitting at home doing nothing is going to negatively contribute to our fight with obesity. Of course some people will spend their time exercising, but let's be real. Most people will sit in front of the television with a soda and a bag of chips all day.


Not sure where this fits into the discussion at all.

There is one thing that will never go out of style: Good customer service. Most people would rather have a real person serving them than a robot. Engineering, programming, and other jobs are being created by all this new technology, it's not just jobs being depleted. If you don't want to work in any of those jobs, how about you become an entrepreneur?


Good thought, but the engineering and programming positions you speak of are tasked with automating their positions in order to increase efficiency. Every job I've had for the past decade, the goal was to automate yourself out of a job. At minimum, automate, simplify and cookie-cutter the position down so well, that instead of having 100 employees working the position, you instead have maybe 2 full-time personnel watching the daily operations, up to 5 employees trained in interdisciplinary to watch another completely different department and act as emergency staff when needed, and the option of calling in temp workers from a temp agency for a day or two when absolutely required.

An example of this that has already taken place would be network administration. There used to be entire departments of employees to watch each building's network. Today, you have one employee watching an entire region of the U.S. with software / server engineers or local site support trained on emergency procedures at each office just in case an issue should arise.

Would you rather have a $50,000 and say to yourself "I made that.", or would you rather have to live with the fact the government gave you that money?

Again, you are missing the point entirely. I am not talking about having a choice in the matter, I am specifically talking WHEN jobs are all automated and transferred from human labor, to robotic labor.

Let me be 100% crystal clear: THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING.

http://fortune.com...
http://www.businessinsider.com...

Again, we ARE moving in the direction of human-free labor, and FAST. This is the premise of this thought experiment.
Stymie13
Posts: 2,162
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9/24/2016 7:22:00 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/24/2016 6:53:08 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:
At 9/24/2016 5:51:55 PM, Snazzy wrote:
At 9/24/2016 5:07:24 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:

So your solution to people either not being smart enough to create/find jobs or just simply too lazy to find one is to take the money from the people who actually earned it and give it to them?


Well this is not at all what was said. I grew up with hard work and dedication influences, laziness gets checked in the delivery room when the doctor whacks your bottom. I grew up a work commute's distance from Amish town; so believe you me that I, in no way shape or form, support a "gimme, gimme, gimme" culture.

The premise of the thought experiment is that we are approaching a time in technological evolution in which automation and robotics are replacing the human labor force whether we like it or not.

A "logical" solution for overpopulation is already in place. People are having abortions left and right whether we like it or not.


Yet we still have a global birth / death ratio of 19 births to 8 deaths per 1,000 people; or a +2.375 population growth rate.

People sitting at home doing nothing is going to negatively contribute to our fight with obesity. Of course some people will spend their time exercising, but let's be real. Most people will sit in front of the television with a soda and a bag of chips all day.


Not sure where this fits into the discussion at all.

There is one thing that will never go out of style: Good customer service. Most people would rather have a real person serving them than a robot. Engineering, programming, and other jobs are being created by all this new technology, it's not just jobs being depleted. If you don't want to work in any of those jobs, how about you become an entrepreneur?


Good thought, but the engineering and programming positions you speak of are tasked with automating their positions in order to increase efficiency. Every job I've had for the past decade, the goal was to automate yourself out of a job. At minimum, automate, simplify and cookie-cutter the position down so well, that instead of having 100 employees working the position, you instead have maybe 2 full-time personnel watching the daily operations, up to 5 employees trained in interdisciplinary to watch another completely different department and act as emergency staff when needed, and the option of calling in temp workers from a temp agency for a day or two when absolutely required.

An example of this that has already taken place would be network administration. There used to be entire departments of employees to watch each building's network. Today, you have one employee watching an entire region of the U.S. with software / server engineers or local site support trained on emergency procedures at each office just in case an issue should arise.

Would you rather have a $50,000 and say to yourself "I made that.", or would you rather have to live with the fact the government gave you that money?

Again, you are missing the point entirely. I am not talking about having a choice in the matter, I am specifically talking WHEN jobs are all automated and transferred from human labor, to robotic labor.

Let me be 100% crystal clear: THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING.

http://fortune.com...
http://www.businessinsider.com...

Again, we ARE moving in the direction of human-free labor, and FAST. This is the premise of this thought experiment.

I understand your thought experiment but ... We pesky humans seem to have a knack for continual innovation
MakeSensePeopleDont
Posts: 1,105
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9/24/2016 7:37:17 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/24/2016 7:22:00 PM, Stymie13 wrote:
At 9/24/2016 6:53:08 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:
At 9/24/2016 5:51:55 PM, Snazzy wrote:
At 9/24/2016 5:07:24 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:

So your solution to people either not being smart enough to create/find jobs or just simply too lazy to find one is to take the money from the people who actually earned it and give it to them?


Well this is not at all what was said. I grew up with hard work and dedication influences, laziness gets checked in the delivery room when the doctor whacks your bottom. I grew up a work commute's distance from Amish town; so believe you me that I, in no way shape or form, support a "gimme, gimme, gimme" culture.

The premise of the thought experiment is that we are approaching a time in technological evolution in which automation and robotics are replacing the human labor force whether we like it or not.

A "logical" solution for overpopulation is already in place. People are having abortions left and right whether we like it or not.


Yet we still have a global birth / death ratio of 19 births to 8 deaths per 1,000 people; or a +2.375 population growth rate.

People sitting at home doing nothing is going to negatively contribute to our fight with obesity. Of course some people will spend their time exercising, but let's be real. Most people will sit in front of the television with a soda and a bag of chips all day.


Not sure where this fits into the discussion at all.

There is one thing that will never go out of style: Good customer service. Most people would rather have a real person serving them than a robot. Engineering, programming, and other jobs are being created by all this new technology, it's not just jobs being depleted. If you don't want to work in any of those jobs, how about you become an entrepreneur?


Good thought, but the engineering and programming positions you speak of are tasked with automating their positions in order to increase efficiency. Every job I've had for the past decade, the goal was to automate yourself out of a job. At minimum, automate, simplify and cookie-cutter the position down so well, that instead of having 100 employees working the position, you instead have maybe 2 full-time personnel watching the daily operations, up to 5 employees trained in interdisciplinary to watch another completely different department and act as emergency staff when needed, and the option of calling in temp workers from a temp agency for a day or two when absolutely required.

An example of this that has already taken place would be network administration. There used to be entire departments of employees to watch each building's network. Today, you have one employee watching an entire region of the U.S. with software / server engineers or local site support trained on emergency procedures at each office just in case an issue should arise.

Would you rather have a $50,000 and say to yourself "I made that.", or would you rather have to live with the fact the government gave you that money?

Again, you are missing the point entirely. I am not talking about having a choice in the matter, I am specifically talking WHEN jobs are all automated and transferred from human labor, to robotic labor.

Let me be 100% crystal clear: THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING.

http://fortune.com...
http://www.businessinsider.com...

Again, we ARE moving in the direction of human-free labor, and FAST. This is the premise of this thought experiment.

I understand your thought experiment but ... We pesky humans seem to have a knack for continual innovation

Which is the point of the thought experiment. I presented a set of facts and an argument for what I see as the logical next step for our economy. If your response is that my theory is incorrect, you present the community with a different theory, backed by facts. If you feel humans would show innovation to reverse the current trend, you would share what you see as way this reversal would occur and present an alternate outcome; realistically speaking of course.
Snazzy
Posts: 117
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9/24/2016 7:37:29 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
I grew up a work commute's distance from Amish town; so believe you me that I, in no way shape or form, support a "gimme, gimme, gimme" culture.
Then why do you want the government to give you money?

Not sure where this fits into the discussion at all.
You said that socialism is the only logical next step in societal evolution. It's not logical to give people money for sitting on their couch eating potato chips.

Again, you are missing the point entirely. I am not talking about having a choice in the matter, I am specifically talking WHEN jobs are all automated and transferred from human labor, to robotic labor.
I never said there was a choice, I'm saying it's a bad thing that this is happening. It will happen eventually, but we will probably disagree on how long it will take.
Disclaimer: This post in no way reflects the views of NBC or any of its affiliates.
MakeSensePeopleDont
Posts: 1,105
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9/24/2016 7:50:33 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/24/2016 7:37:29 PM, Snazzy wrote:
I grew up a work commute's distance from Amish town; so believe you me that I, in no way shape or form, support a "gimme, gimme, gimme" culture.
Then why do you want the government to give you money?


I don't want it.

Not sure where this fits into the discussion at all.
You said that socialism is the only logical next step in societal evolution. It's not logical to give people money for sitting on their couch eating potato chips.


I am totally against socialism in any sense, including welfare states. HOWEVER: From our perspective no it would not make any sense, but from the perspective of a world where businesses have almost completely phased out human labor for automation and robotics, it makes perfect sense. Gotta put yourself in that world.

Again, you are missing the point entirely. I am not talking about having a choice in the matter, I am specifically talking WHEN jobs are all automated and transferred from human labor, to robotic labor.
I never said there was a choice, I'm saying it's a bad thing that this is happening. It will happen eventually, but we will probably disagree on how long it will take.

So we do agree that we are trending in this direction; timeline is of no importance. Although I would estimate around the year 2030 is the tipping point. This because life-like robots are estimated to be walking with us in crowds unnoticed around the year 2036, the increased investment in AI and robotics by retail industry, and AI to overtake human intelligence within 20 years. If we scaled back abilities for necessity, we can easily say 2030. If we wish to play it safe, 2045 would be the tipping point; this being only if we have a massive delay in advancement.
Stymie13
Posts: 2,162
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9/24/2016 8:29:45 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/24/2016 7:37:17 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:
At 9/24/2016 7:22:00 PM, Stymie13 wrote:
At 9/24/2016 6:53:08 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:
At 9/24/2016 5:51:55 PM, Snazzy wrote:
At 9/24/2016 5:07:24 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:

So your solution to people either not being smart enough to create/find jobs or just simply too lazy to find one is to take the money from the people who actually earned it and give it to them?


Well this is not at all what was said. I grew up with hard work and dedication influences, laziness gets checked in the delivery room when the doctor whacks your bottom. I grew up a work commute's distance from Amish town; so believe you me that I, in no way shape or form, support a "gimme, gimme, gimme" culture.

The premise of the thought experiment is that we are approaching a time in technological evolution in which automation and robotics are replacing the human labor force whether we like it or not.

A "logical" solution for overpopulation is already in place. People are having abortions left and right whether we like it or not.


Yet we still have a global birth / death ratio of 19 births to 8 deaths per 1,000 people; or a +2.375 population growth rate.

People sitting at home doing nothing is going to negatively contribute to our fight with obesity. Of course some people will spend their time exercising, but let's be real. Most people will sit in front of the television with a soda and a bag of chips all day.


Not sure where this fits into the discussion at all.

There is one thing that will never go out of style: Good customer service. Most people would rather have a real person serving them than a robot. Engineering, programming, and other jobs are being created by all this new technology, it's not just jobs being depleted. If you don't want to work in any of those jobs, how about you become an entrepreneur?


Good thought, but the engineering and programming positions you speak of are tasked with automating their positions in order to increase efficiency. Every job I've had for the past decade, the goal was to automate yourself out of a job. At minimum, automate, simplify and cookie-cutter the position down so well, that instead of having 100 employees working the position, you instead have maybe 2 full-time personnel watching the daily operations, up to 5 employees trained in interdisciplinary to watch another completely different department and act as emergency staff when needed, and the option of calling in temp workers from a temp agency for a day or two when absolutely required.

An example of this that has already taken place would be network administration. There used to be entire departments of employees to watch each building's network. Today, you have one employee watching an entire region of the U.S. with software / server engineers or local site support trained on emergency procedures at each office just in case an issue should arise.

Would you rather have a $50,000 and say to yourself "I made that.", or would you rather have to live with the fact the government gave you that money?

Again, you are missing the point entirely. I am not talking about having a choice in the matter, I am specifically talking WHEN jobs are all automated and transferred from human labor, to robotic labor.

Let me be 100% crystal clear: THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING.

http://fortune.com...
http://www.businessinsider.com...

Again, we ARE moving in the direction of human-free labor, and FAST. This is the premise of this thought experiment.

I understand your thought experiment but ... We pesky humans seem to have a knack for continual innovation

Which is the point of the thought experiment. I presented a set of facts and an argument for what I see as the logical next step for our economy. If your response is that my theory is incorrect, you present the community with a different theory, backed by facts. If you feel humans would show innovation to reverse the current trend, you would share what you see as way this reversal would occur and present an alternate outcome; realistically speaking of course.

I am not saying I adamantly disagree, I'm just saying these claims have been made for several centuries but we keep allaying the possibility by ingenuity.

I've read many of these articles as well: from AI to pattern recognition databases, it does appear we are heading rapidly towards more automation, less labor, less service, even less medical care in triage and therapy. But we are pesky.
MakeSensePeopleDont
Posts: 1,105
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9/24/2016 8:58:44 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/24/2016 8:29:45 PM, Stymie13 wrote:
At 9/24/2016 7:37:17 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:
At 9/24/2016 7:22:00 PM, Stymie13 wrote:
At 9/24/2016 6:53:08 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:
At 9/24/2016 5:51:55 PM, Snazzy wrote:
At 9/24/2016 5:07:24 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:

So your solution to people either not being smart enough to create/find jobs or just simply too lazy to find one is to take the money from the people who actually earned it and give it to them?


Well this is not at all what was said. I grew up with hard work and dedication influences, laziness gets checked in the delivery room when the doctor whacks your bottom. I grew up a work commute's distance from Amish town; so believe you me that I, in no way shape or form, support a "gimme, gimme, gimme" culture.

The premise of the thought experiment is that we are approaching a time in technological evolution in which automation and robotics are replacing the human labor force whether we like it or not.

A "logical" solution for overpopulation is already in place. People are having abortions left and right whether we like it or not.


Yet we still have a global birth / death ratio of 19 births to 8 deaths per 1,000 people; or a +2.375 population growth rate.

People sitting at home doing nothing is going to negatively contribute to our fight with obesity. Of course some people will spend their time exercising, but let's be real. Most people will sit in front of the television with a soda and a bag of chips all day.


Not sure where this fits into the discussion at all.

There is one thing that will never go out of style: Good customer service. Most people would rather have a real person serving them than a robot. Engineering, programming, and other jobs are being created by all this new technology, it's not just jobs being depleted. If you don't want to work in any of those jobs, how about you become an entrepreneur?


Good thought, but the engineering and programming positions you speak of are tasked with automating their positions in order to increase efficiency. Every job I've had for the past decade, the goal was to automate yourself out of a job. At minimum, automate, simplify and cookie-cutter the position down so well, that instead of having 100 employees working the position, you instead have maybe 2 full-time personnel watching the daily operations, up to 5 employees trained in interdisciplinary to watch another completely different department and act as emergency staff when needed, and the option of calling in temp workers from a temp agency for a day or two when absolutely required.

An example of this that has already taken place would be network administration. There used to be entire departments of employees to watch each building's network. Today, you have one employee watching an entire region of the U.S. with software / server engineers or local site support trained on emergency procedures at each office just in case an issue should arise.

Would you rather have a $50,000 and say to yourself "I made that.", or would you rather have to live with the fact the government gave you that money?

Again, you are missing the point entirely. I am not talking about having a choice in the matter, I am specifically talking WHEN jobs are all automated and transferred from human labor, to robotic labor.

Let me be 100% crystal clear: THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING.

http://fortune.com...
http://www.businessinsider.com...

Again, we ARE moving in the direction of human-free labor, and FAST. This is the premise of this thought experiment.

I understand your thought experiment but ... We pesky humans seem to have a knack for continual innovation

Which is the point of the thought experiment. I presented a set of facts and an argument for what I see as the logical next step for our economy. If your response is that my theory is incorrect, you present the community with a different theory, backed by facts. If you feel humans would show innovation to reverse the current trend, you would share what you see as way this reversal would occur and present an alternate outcome; realistically speaking of course.

I am not saying I adamantly disagree, I'm just saying these claims have been made for several centuries but we keep allaying the possibility by ingenuity.

I've read many of these articles as well: from AI to pattern recognition databases, it does appear we are heading rapidly towards more automation, less labor, less service, even less medical care in triage and therapy. But we are pesky.

We have indeed had scares throughout the years of dwindling labor markets due to machinery coming out from the industrial revolution. However, never of this magnitude. We may have been threatened by machinery which performs mundane tasks repeatedly without complaint; however, we have never faced the threat of smart, more capable, advanced robotics that outmatch humans in almost every conceivable manner.
TheAntidoter
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9/24/2016 9:53:42 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
No jobs means no currency. What's the plan for abolishing that?

Or am I missing something here?
Affinity: Fire
Class: Human
Abilities: ????

Nac.

WOAH, COLORED FONT!
MakeSensePeopleDont
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9/24/2016 11:16:00 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/24/2016 9:53:42 PM, TheAntidoter wrote:
No jobs means no currency. What's the plan for abolishing that?

Or am I missing something here?

The first world already runs on a "fiat" system, not a gold backed system. Basically the U.S. dollar, among most other currencies, have their values based upon the perceived strength of the nation's economy. So although the king of the losers is in fact a loser...in the universe of the losers, the king still reigns supreme.

As long as imports / exports remain in line with relative current expectancy, and GDP remains strong relative to the rest of the first world, the value of the U.S. dollar remains the leader globally.

This means as long as the AI and robots are doing their jobs as humans do now, the status quo remains. The earned wealth that would generally be doled out as labor expenditures would inevitably be relinquished to the government as new taxes. These new taxes would then be compiled and divvied out among the citizens. Just an extended version of the welfare state we see today.
idoubtit
Posts: 163
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9/25/2016 1:08:18 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/24/2016 5:07:24 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:
So I'll make this as short as possible, I can detail as requested.

1) The world is already over-populated
2) Governments are too worried about the backlash to tell the world we need to cut down on procreation.
3) Over-population is the cause for most, if not all major world problems
4) Technology and automation are eliminating jobs by the truck load
5) Western nations are pushing for a welfare state and single payer everything, even in the face of massive debt and inability to pay bills
6) Major companies like Target are investing in software, AI and robotics startups; some are even purchasing these startups outright
7) Commerce is moving from in-person to online with hour delivery times being tested by Amazon
8) Decreased and flexible work weeks being pushed for those who do work
9) Governments appear to be normalizing people being home more and more
10) I believe the governments of the modern world realize that we are coming to the point in which jobs will be almost non-existent due to technological advancements
11) Without a way to earn a living, the governments of the western nations will be required to find a solution to the ability of each person to live
12) A full welfare state, socialism style handout system for all is the only logical next step in cultural and societal evolution.

Thoughts?

Accurate. And I know you aren't advocating item 12, which seems to be what some world governments are in process of implementing.

Personally, I don't believe it will ever be fully implemented. It would be difficult even with our current over-population, but with it increasing at an ever faster rate, nature will take care of the problem the way that nature always does.
MakeSensePeopleDont
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9/25/2016 1:34:17 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/25/2016 1:08:18 AM, idoubtit wrote:
At 9/24/2016 5:07:24 PM, MakeSensePeopleDont wrote:
So I'll make this as short as possible, I can detail as requested.

1) The world is already over-populated
2) Governments are too worried about the backlash to tell the world we need to cut down on procreation.
3) Over-population is the cause for most, if not all major world problems
4) Technology and automation are eliminating jobs by the truck load
5) Western nations are pushing for a welfare state and single payer everything, even in the face of massive debt and inability to pay bills
6) Major companies like Target are investing in software, AI and robotics startups; some are even purchasing these startups outright
7) Commerce is moving from in-person to online with hour delivery times being tested by Amazon
8) Decreased and flexible work weeks being pushed for those who do work
9) Governments appear to be normalizing people being home more and more
10) I believe the governments of the modern world realize that we are coming to the point in which jobs will be almost non-existent due to technological advancements
11) Without a way to earn a living, the governments of the western nations will be required to find a solution to the ability of each person to live
12) A full welfare state, socialism style handout system for all is the only logical next step in cultural and societal evolution.

Thoughts?

Accurate. And I know you aren't advocating item 12, which seems to be what some world governments are in process of implementing.

Personally, I don't believe it will ever be fully implemented. It would be difficult even with our current over-population, but with it increasing at an ever faster rate, nature will take care of the problem the way that nature always does.

Great response. I have one rebuttal for you to think about. Up until about six months ago, projections were that global population would peak at around 8 billion people in 2050; this would fit inline with your theory. However, as I have been telling teachers and researchers for a couple decades now (sorry, forgive my gloating there), with the advancement of modern medicine, the improvements of regular hygiene, the improvements in agriculture, increase in water quality, etc.; resulting in increased life expectancy in addition to no logical argument of how pregnancy and birth rates will decline; population growth has no hurdles.

The current projections are for the global population to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. Food supplies are estimated to max out at around 10 million people, but without the decline in meat consumption, it would be closer to 9.5 billion people. However, we are on the precipice of animal cloning, which would completely change this estimate as well.