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Clinton has Insurmountable Electoral Lead

imabench
Posts: 21,229
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10/12/2016 5:54:53 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
At this point of the election, so many voters have already made up their minds of who they are going to vote for that it is virtually impossible for a candidate to erase any large deficit they face in certain states. There simply are not enough people left to get them to pick a side to change who wins the state, while others who have recently decided are harder to sway.

That basically means that any candidate who holds a sizable (5% to 10%) lead in a state at this point in the election will likely go on to win it on election day.

RCP, RealClearPoltics, collects data from every major poll and aggregates them together to get the most accurate numbers available from state to state. By using the current numbers and applying it to the electoral map provided by 270toWin, we can see that Clinton has a lead that almost certainly cannot be beat.

http://www.270towin.com...

The site already filled in the color for states that are completely safe for either of the candidates, but Minnesota and Maine are still close so I'm not counting them as sure-fire blue states, meaning that at this stage Hillary has 187 electoral votes and Trump has 163. The remaining toss-up states are states where both candidates have for most of the election remained competitive, but using numbers from RCP, we can fill in some of the gaps.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

For Trump, the only swing states in the 270 map he has consistently been winning are Iowa (Up by 3.7 points), Nebraska's straggler electoral vote (Up by 6), and Georgia (Up by 5). Those states put him up to 186 int he electoral tally assuming he holds onto those states for the rest of the election.

If We look at states Hillary leads by similar, or even greater numbers than Trump in Iowa or Georgia, she makes a killing...... Hillary leads in Pennsylvania by 8.6 points, Virginia by 7.5 points, Colorado by 7.3 points, Michigan by 7 points, Wisconsin by 6.8 points, and New Hampshire by 6 points......

Those states puts her electoral count to 259, while Trump is at 186 in states he has similar leads in.

If we look at states Hillary leads by 4 points rather than just 7, or by the margins where Trump is winning in Iowa and Georgia, Hillary also holds leads in Minnesota by 4.3 points and Maine by 3.8 points.

If she hangs onto those states on election day, they put her over 270..... Hillary could win all the states she is currently leading by 4 points the same Trump leads in Iowa and Georgia, and she would still become President even if she lost Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada al to Trump.

The remaining states where the contest is even narrower though are states where Hillary has a slight lead

N Carolina = Clinton up by 2.6 points
Florida = Clinton up 2.4 points
Nevada = Clinton up 1.4 points
Arizona = Trump up 1 point
Ohio = Clinton up by 0.5 points

Even if Trump managed to win all 5 of these states and retain the other swing states he has a lead in, he would still lose to Hillary..... Many of the northeast states that were up for grabs earlier in the election are once again leaning democrat, and they are doing so at rates where Trump simply cannot overcome it and pull those states back into his favor.

I predict that the final score will be 322 to 216 when its all said and done, which would be only 10 votes less than what Obama won in 2012 against Romney, 332 to 206.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
imabench
Posts: 21,229
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10/12/2016 6:06:08 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
Just to put this into further perspective:

October 2004: Bush leads Kerry by 1.6% nationally. Bush went on to win by 3 million votes.
October 2008: Obama leads McCain by 5.5% nationally. Obama went on to win by 10 million votes.
October 2012: Obama leads Romney by 0.7% nationally. Obama went on to win by 5 million votes

This year at the same time, Hillary leads Trump by 6.5% nationally , beating where Obama was in 2008 when he went on to win by a landslide. With only 1 debate left and no convention for either candidate to try to pad their lead or make up ground, its pretty much impossible for Trump to overtake Hillary in the electoral college over the next 3 weeks.

https://www.yahoo.com...
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
imabench
Posts: 21,229
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10/12/2016 6:22:56 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
bumping over all the spam
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
kevin24018
Posts: 1,951
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10/12/2016 6:30:13 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/12/2016 5:54:53 AM, imabench wrote:
At this point of the election, so many voters have already made up their minds of who they are going to vote for that it is virtually impossible for a candidate to erase any large deficit they face in certain states. There simply are not enough people left to get them to pick a side to change who wins the state, while others who have recently decided are harder to sway.

That basically means that any candidate who holds a sizable (5% to 10%) lead in a state at this point in the election will likely go on to win it on election day.

RCP, RealClearPoltics, collects data from every major poll and aggregates them together to get the most accurate numbers available from state to state. By using the current numbers and applying it to the electoral map provided by 270toWin, we can see that Clinton has a lead that almost certainly cannot be beat.

http://www.270towin.com...

The site already filled in the color for states that are completely safe for either of the candidates, but Minnesota and Maine are still close so I'm not counting them as sure-fire blue states, meaning that at this stage Hillary has 187 electoral votes and Trump has 163. The remaining toss-up states are states where both candidates have for most of the election remained competitive, but using numbers from RCP, we can fill in some of the gaps.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

For Trump, the only swing states in the 270 map he has consistently been winning are Iowa (Up by 3.7 points), Nebraska's straggler electoral vote (Up by 6), and Georgia (Up by 5). Those states put him up to 186 int he electoral tally assuming he holds onto those states for the rest of the election.

If We look at states Hillary leads by similar, or even greater numbers than Trump in Iowa or Georgia, she makes a killing...... Hillary leads in Pennsylvania by 8.6 points, Virginia by 7.5 points, Colorado by 7.3 points, Michigan by 7 points, Wisconsin by 6.8 points, and New Hampshire by 6 points......

Those states puts her electoral count to 259, while Trump is at 186 in states he has similar leads in.

If we look at states Hillary leads by 4 points rather than just 7, or by the margins where Trump is winning in Iowa and Georgia, Hillary also holds leads in Minnesota by 4.3 points and Maine by 3.8 points.

If she hangs onto those states on election day, they put her over 270..... Hillary could win all the states she is currently leading by 4 points the same Trump leads in Iowa and Georgia, and she would still become President even if she lost Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada al to Trump.

The remaining states where the contest is even narrower though are states where Hillary has a slight lead

N Carolina = Clinton up by 2.6 points
Florida = Clinton up 2.4 points
Nevada = Clinton up 1.4 points
Arizona = Trump up 1 point
Ohio = Clinton up by 0.5 points

Even if Trump managed to win all 5 of these states and retain the other swing states he has a lead in, he would still lose to Hillary..... Many of the northeast states that were up for grabs earlier in the election are once again leaning democrat, and they are doing so at rates where Trump simply cannot overcome it and pull those states back into his favor.

I predict that the final score will be 322 to 216 when its all said and done, which would be only 10 votes less than what Obama won in 2012 against Romney, 332 to 206.

I think anyone who is honest with them selves thinks it's inevitable unless she actually gets convicted for the crimes she's committed.