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Trump polling at 26% in UTAH

TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/12/2016 7:34:03 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
New poll of Utah (http://www.deseretnews.com...)
Trump: 26%
Clinton: 26%
McMullin: 22%
Johnson: 14%
Undecided: 7%
Stein/Other: 4%

Because the poll's margin of error is 4.4, Trump, Clinton, and McMullin are statistically tied. And only 51% of Utah even knows who McMullin even is. If a few more endorsements come out for McMullin, especially from Romney, he could well win Utah.
twocupcakes
Posts: 2,748
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10/12/2016 9:28:12 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/12/2016 7:34:03 PM, TN05 wrote:
New poll of Utah (http://www.deseretnews.com...)
Trump: 26%
Clinton: 26%
McMullin: 22%
Johnson: 14%
Undecided: 7%
Stein/Other: 4%

Because the poll's margin of error is 4.4, Trump, Clinton, and McMullin are statistically tied. And only 51% of Utah even knows who McMullin even is. If a few more endorsements come out for McMullin, especially from Romney, he could well win Utah.

Would love for a 3rd part to win Utah.
NothingSpecial99
Posts: 368
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10/12/2016 11:41:42 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/12/2016 7:34:03 PM, TN05 wrote:
New poll of Utah (http://www.deseretnews.com...)
Trump: 26%
Clinton: 26%
McMullin: 22%
Johnson: 14%
Undecided: 7%
Stein/Other: 4%

Because the poll's margin of error is 4.4, Trump, Clinton, and McMullin are statistically tied. And only 51% of Utah even knows who McMullin even is. If a few more endorsements come out for McMullin, especially from Romney, he could well win Utah.

Who's McMullin?
"Check your facts, not your privilege" - Christina Hoff Summers

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BrendanD19
Posts: 2,043
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10/12/2016 11:56:19 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/12/2016 11:41:42 PM, NothingSpecial99 wrote:
At 10/12/2016 7:34:03 PM, TN05 wrote:
New poll of Utah (http://www.deseretnews.com...)
Trump: 26%
Clinton: 26%
McMullin: 22%
Johnson: 14%
Undecided: 7%
Stein/Other: 4%

Because the poll's margin of error is 4.4, Trump, Clinton, and McMullin are statistically tied. And only 51% of Utah even knows who McMullin even is. If a few more endorsements come out for McMullin, especially from Romney, he could well win Utah.

Who's McMullin?

An independent candidate who is running as a republican alternative to Trump.
He is only on the ballot in a few states, so I mostly ignore him.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/13/2016 12:54:45 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/12/2016 11:41:42 PM, NothingSpecial99 wrote:
At 10/12/2016 7:34:03 PM, TN05 wrote:
New poll of Utah (http://www.deseretnews.com...)
Trump: 26%
Clinton: 26%
McMullin: 22%
Johnson: 14%
Undecided: 7%
Stein/Other: 4%

Because the poll's margin of error is 4.4, Trump, Clinton, and McMullin are statistically tied. And only 51% of Utah even knows who McMullin even is. If a few more endorsements come out for McMullin, especially from Romney, he could well win Utah.

Who's McMullin?

The candidate tied for the lead in Utah with Trump.
YYW
Posts: 36,282
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10/13/2016 2:05:44 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/12/2016 7:34:03 PM, TN05 wrote:
New poll of Utah (http://www.deseretnews.com...)
Trump: 26%
Clinton: 26%
McMullin: 22%
Johnson: 14%
Undecided: 7%
Stein/Other: 4%

Because the poll's margin of error is 4.4, Trump, Clinton, and McMullin are statistically tied. And only 51% of Utah even knows who McMullin even is. If a few more endorsements come out for McMullin, especially from Romney, he could well win Utah.

This is not surprising.
Tsar of DDO
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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10/13/2016 2:34:34 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/12/2016 7:34:03 PM, TN05 wrote:
New poll of Utah (http://www.deseretnews.com...)
Trump: 26%
Clinton: 26%
McMullin: 22%
Johnson: 14%
Undecided: 7%
Stein/Other: 4%

Because the poll's margin of error is 4.4, Trump, Clinton, and McMullin are statistically tied. And only 51% of Utah even knows who McMullin even is. If a few more endorsements come out for McMullin, especially from Romney, he could well win Utah.

This is hilarious.
lannan13
Posts: 23,029
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10/13/2016 2:51:39 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/13/2016 2:34:34 AM, TBR wrote:
At 10/12/2016 7:34:03 PM, TN05 wrote:
New poll of Utah (http://www.deseretnews.com...)
Trump: 26%
Clinton: 26%
McMullin: 22%
Johnson: 14%
Undecided: 7%
Stein/Other: 4%

Because the poll's margin of error is 4.4, Trump, Clinton, and McMullin are statistically tied. And only 51% of Utah even knows who McMullin even is. If a few more endorsements come out for McMullin, especially from Romney, he could well win Utah.

This is hilarious.

Flags waving for McMullin.
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TBR
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10/13/2016 3:29:04 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/13/2016 2:51:39 AM, lannan13 wrote:
At 10/13/2016 2:34:34 AM, TBR wrote:
At 10/12/2016 7:34:03 PM, TN05 wrote:
New poll of Utah (http://www.deseretnews.com...)
Trump: 26%
Clinton: 26%
McMullin: 22%
Johnson: 14%
Undecided: 7%
Stein/Other: 4%

Because the poll's margin of error is 4.4, Trump, Clinton, and McMullin are statistically tied. And only 51% of Utah even knows who McMullin even is. If a few more endorsements come out for McMullin, especially from Romney, he could well win Utah.

This is hilarious.

Flags waving for McMullin.

Utah. Never would I have thought a democrat would be in striking range of winning Utah.
bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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10/13/2016 6:10:09 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
It would be HILARIOUS if McMullin won.
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TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/13/2016 5:42:02 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
Monmouth poll (http://www.monmouth.edu...) [MOE: 5%]
Trump - 34%
Clinton - 28%
McMullin - 20%
Johnson - 9%
Undecided - 6%
Stein - 1%

Favorability
McMullin - 28/6 (66% do not know enough to have opinion)
Clinton - 25/69
Trump - 19/71

Values
Clinton - 29/70
Trump - 24/73

Temperament
Clinton - 49/48
Trump - 25/70

While this poll doesn't show a lead, it definitely gives McMullin an opening. 20% are willing to vote for him when only 33% know who he is. That's bizarre.
Cody_Franklin
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10/13/2016 5:47:35 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
I wonder how things will go if you have a few states where independent/third way candidates beat out the major parties. McMullin in Utah, Johnson in NM, maybe Bernie somehow in VT--it'd be kind of interesting to see how the House handles the election (hell, I'd say screw Utah, give Gary NM's 5 electoral votes and put him in the running over McMullin and Sanders).
kevin24018
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10/13/2016 6:23:33 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/13/2016 5:47:35 PM, Cody_Franklin wrote:
I wonder how things will go if you have a few states where independent/third way candidates beat out the major parties. McMullin in Utah, Johnson in NM, maybe Bernie somehow in VT--it'd be kind of interesting to see how the House handles the election (hell, I'd say screw Utah, give Gary NM's 5 electoral votes and put him in the running over McMullin and Sanders).

that is fascinating, since the "winner" needs 270 electoral votes, what if no one gets that many, that would be awesome to witness, I don't fully understand the whole process, but maybe that would give us all a "reset button"
Stymie13
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10/13/2016 6:50:20 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/13/2016 6:23:33 PM, kevin24018 wrote:
At 10/13/2016 5:47:35 PM, Cody_Franklin wrote:
I wonder how things will go if you have a few states where independent/third way candidates beat out the major parties. McMullin in Utah, Johnson in NM, maybe Bernie somehow in VT--it'd be kind of interesting to see how the House handles the election (hell, I'd say screw Utah, give Gary NM's 5 electoral votes and put him in the running over McMullin and Sanders).

that is fascinating, since the "winner" needs 270 electoral votes, what if no one gets that many, that would be awesome to witness, I don't fully understand the whole process, but maybe that would give us all a "reset button"

The House elects from the top 3 electoral scores. Forgot if it's just a majority or percentage based.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/13/2016 7:15:24 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10/13/2016 5:47:35 PM, Cody_Franklin wrote:
I wonder how things will go if you have a few states where independent/third way candidates beat out the major parties. McMullin in Utah, Johnson in NM, maybe Bernie somehow in VT--it'd be kind of interesting to see how the House handles the election (hell, I'd say screw Utah, give Gary NM's 5 electoral votes and put him in the running over McMullin and Sanders).

Here's a sample map of what could happen if McMullin wins Utah and Johnson wins New Mexico:
http://www.270towin.com...

Total electoral votes would be:
Clinton/Kaine - 267
Trump/Pence - 260
McMullin/Finn - 6
Johnson/Weld - 5

That assumes no unfaithful electors, of course. Theoretically more could vote for McMullin or Johnson.

Now, if that were to happen, only Clinton, Trump, and McMullin would be candidates when it goes to the House, and only Kaine and Pence would be candidates in the Senate; only the top-three and top-two are chosen, respectively. Under this scenario, the VP would essentially be guaranteed to be Pence - Republicans have 54 Senators and it's hard to imagine any vote for Kaine.

In the House, it's a bit different. Each state gets one vote (decided by a majority of Congressmen in that state), and a majority of states are needed to win; if a majority of representatives cannot decide on a candidate, that state loses its vote. The current composition is:
Republican - 33 (66%)
Democrat - 14 (28%)
Split - 3 (6%)

So the scenario for McMullin to win is as follows: Democrats, realizing they cannot elect Hillary, decide to vote for McMullin; each state that is split also agrees to that. McMullin is able to convince 9 state delegations to vote for him instead of Trump. This could be easier than expected: 5 Republican states have only a single representative, and all but one (Alaska) is in the midwest or Mountain West (the two areas with the most anti-Trump Republicans).
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/13/2016 7:34:00 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
FiveThirtyEight has now included McMullin in its forecast. (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...)

NowCast projects:
Trump - 34% (75% odds to win)
Clinton - 28% (14% odds to win)
McMullin - 23% (10% odds to win)
Johnson - 13% (1.1% odds to win)

Highest odds of a third party winning any state by far. Johnson only has 1% chance in New Mexico.