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Trump risks losing Alaska, Arizona, Georgia

imabench
Posts: 21,805
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10/18/2016 1:47:31 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
A new poll shows Hillary within one point of him in Alaska https://origin-nyi.thehill.com..., while polls in Georgia ( http://theweek.com... ) and Arizona ( http://www.abc15.com... ) Shows Clinton behind by only 0.3% in Georgia and leading by 2% in Arizona.....

Texas, considered the most valuable state for Republicans due to its size and loyalty in voting red, shows Clinton only trailing by about 5 points behind Trump. http://www.realclearpolitics.com... Romney won Texas by 16 points just 4 years earlier in 2012. https://en.wikipedia.org...

Republicans have been struggling to even stay competitive in traditional swing states, but now they are even struggling to remain dominant in states that were considered some of the most right-leaning states in the entire election.
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Wylted
Posts: 23,371
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10/18/2016 1:52:59 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
studies have shown that when people think their candidate is more likely to lose, they are less likely to vote. This is why liberals use dishonest polling stats like they did when predicting Carter would win in a landslide against Reagan
NHN
Posts: 1,219
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10/18/2016 2:01:38 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 10/18/2016 1:47:31 AM, imabench wrote:
A new poll shows Hillary within one point of him in Alaska [...]
At this point it's better to stick with forecasters for greater accuracy. I recommend scrolling down this page (http://www.nytimes.com...) to compare the different state-by-state estimates.

It is noteworthy, however, that Nate Silver at 538 (ESPN) is putting down Alaska as a tight race.
I am fascinated by the idea that our civilization is like a thin layer of ice upon a deep ocean of chaos and darkness.
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YYW
Posts: 41,725
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10/18/2016 2:11:26 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 10/18/2016 1:47:31 AM, imabench wrote:
A new poll shows Hillary within one point of him in Alaska https://origin-nyi.thehill.com..., while polls in Georgia ( http://theweek.com... ) and Arizona ( http://www.abc15.com... ) Shows Clinton behind by only 0.3% in Georgia and leading by 2% in Arizona.....

Texas, considered the most valuable state for Republicans due to its size and loyalty in voting red, shows Clinton only trailing by about 5 points behind Trump. http://www.realclearpolitics.com... Romney won Texas by 16 points just 4 years earlier in 2012. https://en.wikipedia.org...

Republicans have been struggling to even stay competitive in traditional swing states, but now they are even struggling to remain dominant in states that were considered some of the most right-leaning states in the entire election.

*smiles smugly*
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xus00HAY
Posts: 1,489
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10/18/2016 2:16:35 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
Too bad they let the state of Georgia back into our country after the civil war. If they didn't we wouldn't have this problem now.
imabench
Posts: 21,805
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10/18/2016 2:47:29 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 10/18/2016 1:55:14 AM, Wylted wrote:
An example of a dishonest poll used to try and keep republicans at home. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com...

The poll you cite came in March, 3 months before the primary even ended and before the GOP nominated Reagan in mid July. By the time Reagan was nominated, he was basically tied with him:

https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...

Currently though we are less than three WEEKS before the election takes place, not three months before a candidate has even been nominated, meaning the polls indicate that your candidate, much like your reasoning and ability to cite legit evidence for any claim you make, sucks.
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Greyparrot
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10/18/2016 2:51:01 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 10/18/2016 2:16:35 AM, xus00HAY wrote:
Too bad they let the state of Georgia back into our country after the civil war. If they didn't we wouldn't have this problem now.
I find myself intrigued by your subvocal oscillations.
A singular development of cat communications
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Wylted
Posts: 23,371
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10/18/2016 3:57:13 AM
Posted: 9 months ago
At 10/18/2016 2:47:29 AM, imabench wrote:
At 10/18/2016 1:55:14 AM, Wylted wrote:
An example of a dishonest poll used to try and keep republicans at home. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com...

The poll you cite came in March, 3 months before the primary even ended and before the GOP nominated Reagan in mid July. By the time Reagan was nominated, he was basically tied with him:

https://en.wikipedia.org...
https://en.wikipedia.org...

Currently though we are less than three WEEKS before the election takes place, not three months before a candidate has even been nominated, meaning the polls indicate that your candidate, much like your reasoning and ability to cite legit evidence for any claim you make, sucks.

Yeah even the polls a couple of days out were showing a virtual tie between carter and Reagan, but Reagan won in a landslide, and studies have shown that individuals are less likely to show up at the polls if they think their candidate is going to lose. It is a simple use of "Cui Bono" to determine why the polls were off.