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The Catastrophic 2016 Scenario

1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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11/6/2016 6:50:10 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
269. Or less.

It could happen, according to the current swing of polls. Trump up in Nevada and New Hampshire and North Carolina all of the sudden.

If Trump wins Nevada and New Hampshire and NC, Iowa, and Ohio - Clinton can get 269 at most.

Trump is also "ahead" to get 2 electoral votes from Maine, which would tip him over 270. Frankly, I don't buy that. But for the sake of fun, let's assume he wins all of those states plus 2 votes from Maine.

Trump is up 271-267?

Well, maybe not. Enter Evan McMormon (I credit my history teacher with that name).

Evan McMullin, according to polls, either has a really good or low shot of winning Utah. I think he has a good shot because of Mormon disdain for Trump. If Utah comes out to vote at a higher turnout than what may be expected this year, I think McMullin has the edge. And stopping Trump may inspire that turnout.

So what are we at now? 269-263-6.

Now the even further catastrophic spin.

Enter the electoral college. And its electors. Some states have laws against faithless electors, but nobody has ever been prosecuted. Regardless, there are 20 states without laws seeking to bind votes. 14 of those have equal or more votes than Utah.

1 Washington Democratic elector who supported Sanders in the primary has already stated he will not vote for Clinton. Washington state has laws against faithless electors. He doesn't care. And he says he thinks there are going to be others that will join him.

We'll see what happens on Tuesday, and the few days after.

At this point, in regards to insane things happening - why not?
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bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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11/6/2016 8:16:18 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
I thought this was funny, though it's only tangentially related to the OP: http://www.cnn.com...

However, the idea that Clinton will get exactly 270 with no cushion or that she'll split with 269-269 is a highly unlikely one. It's more likely for Trump to just barely squeak by.
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1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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11/6/2016 8:46:30 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/6/2016 8:16:18 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I thought this was funny, though it's only tangentially related to the OP: http://www.cnn.com...

However, the idea that Clinton will get exactly 270 with no cushion or that she'll split with 269-269 is a highly unlikely one. It's more likely for Trump to just barely squeak by.

If he wins NC+FL+OH - of those three he's only extremely slightly leaning in NC: Unless he wins Pennsylvania, Virginia, NH+NV+ME (2) with no Utah -> McMormon, or Colorado+any other state, he won't win.

He won't win Virginia. I put Pennsylvania at a low realistic chance when the time comes (re: I don't think he can win it), and he probably won't win Colorado.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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xus00HAY
Posts: 1,394
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11/7/2016 2:20:19 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 10 pm the History Channel will be doing a show on who Nostrodamus has predicted will be the winner of the 2016 election. We will have to see that before we know for sure.
vortex86
Posts: 571
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11/7/2016 2:26:24 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/6/2016 6:50:10 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
269. Or less.

It could happen, according to the current swing of polls. Trump up in Nevada and New Hampshire and North Carolina all of the sudden.

If Trump wins Nevada and New Hampshire and NC, Iowa, and Ohio - Clinton can get 269 at most.

Trump is also "ahead" to get 2 electoral votes from Maine, which would tip him over 270. Frankly, I don't buy that. But for the sake of fun, let's assume he wins all of those states plus 2 votes from Maine.

Trump is up 271-267?

Well, maybe not. Enter Evan McMormon (I credit my history teacher with that name).

Evan McMullin, according to polls, either has a really good or low shot of winning Utah. I think he has a good shot because of Mormon disdain for Trump. If Utah comes out to vote at a higher turnout than what may be expected this year, I think McMullin has the edge. And stopping Trump may inspire that turnout.

So what are we at now? 269-263-6.

Now the even further catastrophic spin.

Enter the electoral college. And its electors. Some states have laws against faithless electors, but nobody has ever been prosecuted. Regardless, there are 20 states without laws seeking to bind votes. 14 of those have equal or more votes than Utah.

1 Washington Democratic elector who supported Sanders in the primary has already stated he will not vote for Clinton. Washington state has laws against faithless electors. He doesn't care. And he says he thinks there are going to be others that will join him.

We'll see what happens on Tuesday, and the few days after.

At this point, in regards to insane things happening - why not?

You're forgetting Maine 2nd District. That pushes him to 270 with your scenario.
vortex86
Posts: 571
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11/7/2016 2:26:46 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/7/2016 2:26:24 AM, vortex86 wrote:
At 11/6/2016 6:50:10 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
269. Or less.

It could happen, according to the current swing of polls. Trump up in Nevada and New Hampshire and North Carolina all of the sudden.

If Trump wins Nevada and New Hampshire and NC, Iowa, and Ohio - Clinton can get 269 at most.

Trump is also "ahead" to get 2 electoral votes from Maine, which would tip him over 270. Frankly, I don't buy that. But for the sake of fun, let's assume he wins all of those states plus 2 votes from Maine.

Trump is up 271-267?

Well, maybe not. Enter Evan McMormon (I credit my history teacher with that name).

Evan McMullin, according to polls, either has a really good or low shot of winning Utah. I think he has a good shot because of Mormon disdain for Trump. If Utah comes out to vote at a higher turnout than what may be expected this year, I think McMullin has the edge. And stopping Trump may inspire that turnout.

So what are we at now? 269-263-6.

Now the even further catastrophic spin.

Enter the electoral college. And its electors. Some states have laws against faithless electors, but nobody has ever been prosecuted. Regardless, there are 20 states without laws seeking to bind votes. 14 of those have equal or more votes than Utah.

1 Washington Democratic elector who supported Sanders in the primary has already stated he will not vote for Clinton. Washington state has laws against faithless electors. He doesn't care. And he says he thinks there are going to be others that will join him.

We'll see what happens on Tuesday, and the few days after.

At this point, in regards to insane things happening - why not?

You're forgetting Maine 2nd District. That pushes him to 270 with your scenario.

nm... I reread your post
U.n
Posts: 214
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11/7/2016 2:45:55 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
If no one reaches 270 votes:

1. The President is selected by the House of Representatives
2. The VP is selected by the Senate

Both of which are Republican controlled.

IOW, Clinton needs to reach 270 votes. Trump only needs to reach 269.
U.n
Posts: 214
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11/7/2016 2:51:59 AM
Posted: 1 month ago
It could get interesting though, considering how many bridges Trump has already burned within the Republican Party.

There is a way for Congress to bump Mike Pence up to President and Donald Trump down to VP. But it's really complicated and extremely unlikely.