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Make Your Final Election Predictions

bsh1
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11/8/2016 4:38:24 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
What are your final election predictions--will Trump win or Clinton, and by how much? Use this site [http://www.270towin.com...] to create your map and then link it to this thread by clicking "share" and using the URL that is generated. How close will your prediction be? Only time will tell.

Here is my prediction: http://www.270towin.com...
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


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Romanii
Posts: 5,233
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11/8/2016 5:05:57 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
I think Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are all pure toss-ups.

The polls are fluctuating way too much in those states to be relied upon.

If Trump can win all four of them (in addition to the states he has a solid lead in), then he wins the election.

http://www.270towin.com...

I give Trump a 45% shot.
SolonKR
Posts: 4,374
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11/8/2016 5:07:20 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
As much as I'd like a Clinton blow-out, and she has been gaining a surge of momentum lately, which is wonderful (her chances on 538 jumped an astounding 6% today), I'm still wary about a polling error. I realize that, given how Clinton's turn-out efforts have been infinitely stronger than Trump's that's not as likely as it was during, say, Brexit (and even then, compared to the Economist's tracker, it was only a 2-point error from the final forecast), but I stand by my numbers from the last time I guessed (after Comey sent his message to Congress that they were sifting through e-mails, but before they said there was nothing they needed to investigate w.r.t. Clinton).

Clinton 272-266 Trump
http://www.270towin.com...
Bailey <3

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1harderthanyouthink
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11/8/2016 5:09:53 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
It will either be a Clinton +3 to +5 in the national popular vote (so probably around Obama 2012 in the Electoral College) or 269-269 (or 263 and possibility of an Electoral College faithlessness catastrophe).
I'll see you on the Dark Side of the Moon.

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SolonKR
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11/8/2016 5:11:56 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 5:05:57 AM, Romanii wrote:
I think Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are all pure toss-ups.

The polls are fluctuating way too much in those states to be relied upon.

I think New Hampshire especially is the pivotal one. That's where her lead is strongest out of those four states (RCP gives Clinton a +3.5 in the polls-plus model). We'll know pretty soon after the results start coming in who wins--if Clinton carries New Hampshire, she wins; if she doesn't there's no way she's carrying those other states.

Btw I would respond to your post in the other thread, but I don't have time tonight, and by the time I get home tomorrow, the results will already be coming in. Sorry :/
Bailey <3

"For often evil men are rich, and good men poor;
But we will not exchange with them
Our virtue for their wealth, since one abides always,
While riches change their owners every day." - Solon, Plutarch's "Life of Solon"
SolonKR
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11/8/2016 5:13:21 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 5:11:56 AM, SolonKR wrote:
I think New Hampshire especially is the pivotal one. That's where her lead is strongest out of those four states (538 gives Clinton a +3.5 in the polls-plus model).

Fixed.
Bailey <3

"For often evil men are rich, and good men poor;
But we will not exchange with them
Our virtue for their wealth, since one abides always,
While riches change their owners every day." - Solon, Plutarch's "Life of Solon"
PetersSmith
Posts: 6,894
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11/8/2016 5:16:46 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 4:38:24 AM, bsh1 wrote:
What are your final election predictions--will Trump win or Clinton, and by how much? Use this site [http://www.270towin.com...] to create your map and then link it to this thread by clicking "share" and using the URL that is generated. How close will your prediction be? Only time will tell.

Here is my prediction: http://www.270towin.com...

America will lose.
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bsh1
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11/8/2016 5:17:22 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 5:07:20 AM, SolonKR wrote:

I think her lead in Nevada's early voting is too strong for the GOP to overcome it.
Live Long and Prosper

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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

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bsh1
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11/8/2016 5:18:00 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 5:05:57 AM, Romanii wrote:
I think Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are all pure toss-ups.

I agree re: Florida and NC...maybe NH, but I definitely think Nevada will go blue.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...

29,000th Post & Sort of Farewell: http://www.debate.org...
Vox_Veritas
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11/8/2016 5:18:58 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Clinton victory, but it won't be a landslide, not even in the Electoral College.
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Romanii
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11/8/2016 5:21:38 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 5:11:56 AM, SolonKR wrote:
Btw I would respond to your post in the other thread, but I don't have time tonight, and by the time I get home tomorrow, the results will already be coming in. Sorry :/

No worries haha. Regardless of your response, the next 4 years will validate everything I said there :)
Torton
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11/8/2016 5:22:24 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 5:18:58 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Clinton victory, but it won't be a landslide, not even in the Electoral College.
This.
Chang29
Posts: 775
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11/8/2016 10:18:01 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 5:16:46 AM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 11/8/2016 4:38:24 AM, bsh1 wrote:
What are your final election predictions--will Trump win or Clinton, and by how much? Use this site [http://www.270towin.com...] to create your map and then link it to this thread by clicking "share" and using the URL that is generated. How close will your prediction be? Only time will tell.

Here is my prediction: http://www.270towin.com...

America will lose.

Dark days are ahead.
A free market anti-capitalist

If it can be de-centralized, it will be de-centralized.
ChaseE
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11/8/2016 11:49:51 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
I have no idea. Personally, I want Trump to win, but it's gonna be close.

I think, however, we can all agree that these two are the WORST presidential candidates in American history.
Subutai
Posts: 4,193
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11/8/2016 12:11:41 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Here's what I see happening: http://www.270towin.com...

I didn't want to leave any states blank, so let me explain a few of my predictions for toss-up states:

-NH leans Clinton right now. NH has recently been a blue state (except in 2000) and NH doesn't have a lot of people that fit Trump's key demographic there, meaning there won't be many new Republican votes there.
-PA has never been a toss-up in this election. While Trump will fare better in this election that other Republicans did in past ones because of PA's high population of miners and factory workers, PA has been a solidly blue state for a while, and that demographic's numbers aren't large enough to change that.
-OH and NC should flip red this time, as Trump has more popularity there. They were both closely decided in 2008 and 2012, and Trump has more popularity in both those states than McCain or Romney did due to the demographics of those states.
-FL as always been close. More people will vote Republican this time because there is greater enthusiasm for Trump there. FL will be decided on how many minorities decide to vote. Given Trump's comments towards minorities (there are a large number of blacks and Latinos in FL), I think minorities will feel more pressured to vote, so their numbers will likely be larger. I think this effect will outweigh that of other peoples' liking of Trump.
-TX will not flip blue. Sure, a lot of Texas Republicans don't like Trump, but they really don't like Hillary.
-CO will stay blue because there hasn't been a lot of demographic shift in that time. Plus, there aren't a lot of people in CO that fit Trump's key demographic.
-I merely guessed that NV will go blue. I don't feel confident there.
Lying on the hill, crawling over the windowsill into your living room, they stare out, glass-eyed aimless heads, bodies torn by vultures. You are the man whose hands are rank with the smell of death. - Peter Hammill, "The Emperor in His War Room"
RookieApologist
Posts: 469
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11/8/2016 12:56:46 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
My prediction:

Clinton will win in a historic landslide. She will then be a crapshow of a President, just as she was a crapshow of a Secretary of State (and basic human being). Then in 2020, assuming she makes it that far, she will be replaced by (finally) a true conservative.
Vaarka
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11/8/2016 1:15:29 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 4:38:24 AM, bsh1 wrote:
What are your final election predictions--will Trump win or Clinton?

I think the wrong person will win
Beginner Series Mafia Mod. PM if interested***
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NothingSpecial99
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11/8/2016 1:16:20 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 12:56:46 PM, RookieApologist wrote:
My prediction:

Clinton will win in a historic landslide. She will then be a crapshow of a President, just as she was a crapshow of a Secretary of State (and basic human being). Then in 2020, assuming she makes it that far, she will be replaced by (finally) a true conservative.

More like replaced by Dorothy with a bucket of water in the election of 2020
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Vaarka
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11/8/2016 1:18:54 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
If Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are in a boat and it capsizes in shark infested waters, who survives?

America

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com...
Beginner Series Mafia Mod. PM if interested***
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"I bet you're thinking right now 'haha I'm a genius'. well you're not" - Valkrin

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lannan13
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11/8/2016 1:50:26 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I'm giving this one to Clinton with a 3% popular vote win over Trump. The electorate will be 307-231.

http://www.270towin.com...
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bsh1
Posts: 29,009
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11/8/2016 2:39:32 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 2:03:12 PM, Mharman wrote:
At 11/8/2016 1:58:26 PM, Mharman wrote:
At 11/8/2016 1:57:54 PM, Mharman wrote:
http://www.270towin.com...

It failed. Shoot.
http://www.270towin.com...

What data makes you think PA and NV will go to Trump?
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...

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Mharman
Posts: 4,770
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11/8/2016 3:31:55 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 2:39:32 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/8/2016 2:03:12 PM, Mharman wrote:
At 11/8/2016 1:58:26 PM, Mharman wrote:
At 11/8/2016 1:57:54 PM, Mharman wrote:
http://www.270towin.com...

It failed. Shoot.
http://www.270towin.com...

What data makes you think PA and NV will go to Trump?
Most polls show Trump leading in PA, and NV is led by a third-party candidate that usually votes red. I think most people in that state will realize Evan McMullan has no chance at the white house.
My sig is blue now.
TN05
Posts: 4,682
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11/8/2016 3:55:41 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Popular vote:
Clinton - 48
Trump - 45
Johnson - 5%
Stein - 1%
McMullin - 1% (close second-place in Utah)

Electoral vote:
Clinton: 320
Trump: 216
Sanders: 2 (faithless electors in Washington)

States that are dark red or blue are states that will be won by more than 10 points; states in blue/red are ones that will be won by less than 10 points; states in light/red blue are states that will be won by less than five points. So:
http://www.270towin.com...

Likely Dem (within 10 points):
*Nevada
*Colorado
*Virginia
*Pennsyvlania
*Michigan
*Minnesota

Leans Dem (within 5 points):
*Wisconsin
*North Carolina
*Florida
*New Hampshire

Likely Republican (within 10 points):
*Alaska
*Missouri
*South Carolina

Leans Republican (within 5 points):
*Ohio
*Georgia
*Arizona
*Utah
*Maine's 2nd
*Nebraska's 2nd
*Iowa

Senate predictions: http://www.270towin.com... (Democrats +2)

Governor race predictions (Republicans +2)
Republican to Democrat - North Carolina, Indiana
Democrat to Republican - West Virginia, New Hampshire, Vermont, Missouri

Note with governor races: I consider NH and Missouri Senate/Gubernatorial races to be tied. Basically, either they both go to the Democrats or both go to the Republicans.
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ColeTrain
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11/8/2016 5:05:01 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
http://www.270towin.com...
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bsh1
Posts: 29,009
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11/8/2016 5:27:58 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/8/2016 3:31:55 PM, Mharman wrote:
At 11/8/2016 2:39:32 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/8/2016 2:03:12 PM, Mharman wrote:
At 11/8/2016 1:58:26 PM, Mharman wrote:
At 11/8/2016 1:57:54 PM, Mharman wrote:
http://www.270towin.com...

It failed. Shoot.
http://www.270towin.com...

What data makes you think PA and NV will go to Trump?
Most polls show Trump leading in PA, and NV is led by a third-party candidate that usually votes red. I think most people in that state will realize Evan McMullan has no chance at the white house.

Most polls show Trump leading in PA?! *chokes* Of the last 47 polls in PA, Trump leads in just 2, and 1 is a tie. Clinton is DESTROYING him in the PA polls, 44-2-1.

I think you are confusing Nevada with McMullin. McMullin is in 3rd place in Utah, but has no polled following in Nevada. I challenge you to find a single poll that even includes McMullin in Nevada.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...

29,000th Post & Sort of Farewell: http://www.debate.org...