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Why the polls were wrong.

Skepsikyma
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11/9/2016 5:46:35 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
Response rates to telephone polls have dropped from 61% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2016. Without the ability to tap into cellphone polls, pollsters have to analyze a perpetually shrinking pool of data (that 0.9% response rate only includes those people with landlines, which introduces its own layer of bias), and we are now at the point where their prognostication begins to resemble the reading of tea leaves. The real predicative power lies in immensely complex, private data analysis companies which sell their results to the highest bidder, and that data is opaque to the rest of the population. IMO, this is a good thing in some ways, because the loss of faith in polls reduces the amount of sway that the corporate media has over the electorate. However, it also further entrenches our two political parties, because it raises the 'barrier to entry' when it comes to politics.

This is also why I didn't make any predictions; I knew that anything could happen, and I had no intention to pop the hubris of the Hillary camp going into the election.

https://www.wired.com...
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
YYW
Posts: 36,389
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11/9/2016 6:00:45 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/9/2016 5:46:35 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
Response rates to telephone polls have dropped from 61% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2016. Without the ability to tap into cellphone polls, pollsters have to analyze a perpetually shrinking pool of data (that 0.9% response rate only includes those people with landlines, which introduces its own layer of bias), and we are now at the point where their prognostication begins to resemble the reading of tea leaves. The real predicative power lies in immensely complex, private data analysis companies which sell their results to the highest bidder, and that data is opaque to the rest of the population. IMO, this is a good thing in some ways, because the loss of faith in polls reduces the amount of sway that the corporate media has over the electorate. However, it also further entrenches our two political parties, because it raises the 'barrier to entry' when it comes to politics.

This is also why I didn't make any predictions; I knew that anything could happen, and I had no intention to pop the hubris of the Hillary camp going into the election.

https://www.wired.com...

This is accurate, but I don't think it reflects the whole picture. I think Trump spoke to a disenfranchised white working class that the Democratic party has hung out to dry since the 1990s, and they uniformly told the Democrats to go straight to hell.

Trump lost the popular vote, of course... but that doesn't matter. What matters is that in order to win, the DNC has to fundamentally reevaluate its message.

This progressive bullsh!t about "political correctness" and the like has to go. They need to start talking class conflict, and restoring the American middle class. Social issues didn't decide this election, although they did probably push Trump over the edge.

I think that people who frame this election as an effort to get back at "the nigger in the white house" or because America is filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes are uniformly misguided. That species of thought, to the extent that it continues, is going to cripple the DNC. It's not about any of that.

The rust belt is not filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes. It's filled with working class white people who are struggling to provide for their families. The economy is doing good, but it's only doing good for the people at the top. That's a real problem.

But, one thing this does mean is that working class people do what rational people do every single time: they put their interests, as they perceive them, above others' interests. That's why the Clinton campaign's "basket of deplorables" nonsense had no currency in the Rust Belt... and Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump was right that the Democrats have taken those people for granted for too long. It's shameful, but he was right.

One thing that I do take from this, though, is that the future for the DNC still looks pretty good. Elizabeth Warren types still have a shot, so does Sanders, or whoever follows in his footsteps. Young people voted blue across the board in almost every state in the country, and if they decided the election it would have gone to her by a margin of more than 300 electoral votes.

The temptation for the Republican party (and a lot of the kids here, too, I think) will be to interpret this as a mandate of greater significance than it was. Without question, Trump has a mandate but the Republican party does not. This victory is Trump's, and Trump's alone. This is not an endorsement of the GOP's platform, or anything of that kind. This is about money, and nothing more.
Tsar of DDO
YYW
Posts: 36,389
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11/9/2016 6:06:51 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
I will say this as well....

Trump defied expectations. Gotta give credit where it's due. He redrew the electoral map, and by any reasonable standard has changed the trajectory of history.
Tsar of DDO
vortex86
Posts: 572
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11/9/2016 6:18:30 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/9/2016 6:00:45 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/9/2016 5:46:35 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
Response rates to telephone polls have dropped from 61% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2016. Without the ability to tap into cellphone polls, pollsters have to analyze a perpetually shrinking pool of data (that 0.9% response rate only includes those people with landlines, which introduces its own layer of bias), and we are now at the point where their prognostication begins to resemble the reading of tea leaves. The real predicative power lies in immensely complex, private data analysis companies which sell their results to the highest bidder, and that data is opaque to the rest of the population. IMO, this is a good thing in some ways, because the loss of faith in polls reduces the amount of sway that the corporate media has over the electorate. However, it also further entrenches our two political parties, because it raises the 'barrier to entry' when it comes to politics.

This is also why I didn't make any predictions; I knew that anything could happen, and I had no intention to pop the hubris of the Hillary camp going into the election.

https://www.wired.com...

This is accurate, but I don't think it reflects the whole picture. I think Trump spoke to a disenfranchised white working class that the Democratic party has hung out to dry since the 1990s, and they uniformly told the Democrats to go straight to hell.

Trump lost the popular vote, of course... but that doesn't matter. What matters is that in order to win, the DNC has to fundamentally reevaluate its message.

This progressive bullsh!t about "political correctness" and the like has to go. They need to start talking class conflict, and restoring the American middle class. Social issues didn't decide this election, although they did probably push Trump over the edge.

I think that people who frame this election as an effort to get back at "the nigger in the white house" or because America is filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes are uniformly misguided. That species of thought, to the extent that it continues, is going to cripple the DNC. It's not about any of that.

The rust belt is not filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes. It's filled with working class white people who are struggling to provide for their families. The economy is doing good, but it's only doing good for the people at the top. That's a real problem.

But, one thing this does mean is that working class people do what rational people do every single time: they put their interests, as they perceive them, above others' interests. That's why the Clinton campaign's "basket of deplorables" nonsense had no currency in the Rust Belt... and Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump was right that the Democrats have taken those people for granted for too long. It's shameful, but he was right.

One thing that I do take from this, though, is that the future for the DNC still looks pretty good. Elizabeth Warren types still have a shot, so does Sanders, or whoever follows in his footsteps. Young people voted blue across the board in almost every state in the country, and if they decided the election it would have gone to her by a margin of more than 300 electoral votes.

The temptation for the Republican party (and a lot of the kids here, too, I think) will be to interpret this as a mandate of greater significance than it was. Without question, Trump has a mandate but the Republican party does not. This victory is Trump's, and Trump's alone. This is not an endorsement of the GOP's platform, or anything of that kind. This is about money, and nothing more.

I hope both parties take a strong look at what happened. Both are in serious need of restructuring.
YYW
Posts: 36,389
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11/9/2016 6:20:06 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/9/2016 6:18:30 PM, vortex86 wrote:
At 11/9/2016 6:00:45 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/9/2016 5:46:35 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
Response rates to telephone polls have dropped from 61% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2016. Without the ability to tap into cellphone polls, pollsters have to analyze a perpetually shrinking pool of data (that 0.9% response rate only includes those people with landlines, which introduces its own layer of bias), and we are now at the point where their prognostication begins to resemble the reading of tea leaves. The real predicative power lies in immensely complex, private data analysis companies which sell their results to the highest bidder, and that data is opaque to the rest of the population. IMO, this is a good thing in some ways, because the loss of faith in polls reduces the amount of sway that the corporate media has over the electorate. However, it also further entrenches our two political parties, because it raises the 'barrier to entry' when it comes to politics.

This is also why I didn't make any predictions; I knew that anything could happen, and I had no intention to pop the hubris of the Hillary camp going into the election.

https://www.wired.com...

This is accurate, but I don't think it reflects the whole picture. I think Trump spoke to a disenfranchised white working class that the Democratic party has hung out to dry since the 1990s, and they uniformly told the Democrats to go straight to hell.

Trump lost the popular vote, of course... but that doesn't matter. What matters is that in order to win, the DNC has to fundamentally reevaluate its message.

This progressive bullsh!t about "political correctness" and the like has to go. They need to start talking class conflict, and restoring the American middle class. Social issues didn't decide this election, although they did probably push Trump over the edge.

I think that people who frame this election as an effort to get back at "the nigger in the white house" or because America is filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes are uniformly misguided. That species of thought, to the extent that it continues, is going to cripple the DNC. It's not about any of that.

The rust belt is not filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes. It's filled with working class white people who are struggling to provide for their families. The economy is doing good, but it's only doing good for the people at the top. That's a real problem.

But, one thing this does mean is that working class people do what rational people do every single time: they put their interests, as they perceive them, above others' interests. That's why the Clinton campaign's "basket of deplorables" nonsense had no currency in the Rust Belt... and Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump was right that the Democrats have taken those people for granted for too long. It's shameful, but he was right.

One thing that I do take from this, though, is that the future for the DNC still looks pretty good. Elizabeth Warren types still have a shot, so does Sanders, or whoever follows in his footsteps. Young people voted blue across the board in almost every state in the country, and if they decided the election it would have gone to her by a margin of more than 300 electoral votes.

The temptation for the Republican party (and a lot of the kids here, too, I think) will be to interpret this as a mandate of greater significance than it was. Without question, Trump has a mandate but the Republican party does not. This victory is Trump's, and Trump's alone. This is not an endorsement of the GOP's platform, or anything of that kind. This is about money, and nothing more.

I hope both parties take a strong look at what happened. Both are in serious need of restructuring.

Yeah, I think that's right.
Tsar of DDO
Geogeer
Posts: 4,286
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11/9/2016 6:22:16 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/9/2016 6:00:45 PM, YYW wrote:

This progressive bullsh!t about "political correctness" and the like has to go. They need to start talking class conflict, and restoring the American middle class.

I wholeheartedly disagree. They should start talking truth. It isn't about class conflict. People are tired of feeling that they are being lied to. That is why brexit won and that is why Trump won.

Look at what Trumps real message was.

Nations need to control their borders. If you have an uncontrolled border you need to fix the problem.

Loss of manufacturing base. A superpower that cannot manufacture sh!t anymore won't remain a super power for long. A robust manufacturing base within the nation is necessary for prosperity. You yourself became enraged at Carrier for moving out of the US to Mexico for cheap labour. Who addressed this Hillary or Trump?

You know the best way to have growth in a nation? People having good paying jobs and not living off of food stamps. So make a good amount of stuff in your own nation, and if it is cheaper to import it even with high tariffs at least you can use the money from the tariffs to put people to work.

Was Trump invective in his rhetoric? Sure he was. People misconstrued passion for hate. He did not promote hate. He wants a strong America for Americans - a fully rational idea. The best way to have good wages is not to have illegal immigrants who will do the work for a fraction of the price for money under the table. This denies just taxes to the government and fair wages to manual labourers.

If he can implement half of what he campaigned on you will have a stronger America by the time he is out of office.

There is no need for class warfare, all sectors of society can benefit.
inferno
Posts: 10,689
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11/9/2016 6:30:45 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/9/2016 5:46:35 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
Response rates to telephone polls have dropped from 61% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2016. Without the ability to tap into cellphone polls, pollsters have to analyze a perpetually shrinking pool of data (that 0.9% response rate only includes those people with landlines, which introduces its own layer of bias), and we are now at the point where their prognostication begins to resemble the reading of tea leaves. The real predicative power lies in immensely complex, private data analysis companies which sell their results to the highest bidder, and that data is opaque to the rest of the population. IMO, this is a good thing in some ways, because the loss of faith in polls reduces the amount of sway that the corporate media has over the electorate. However, it also further entrenches our two political parties, because it raises the 'barrier to entry' when it comes to politics.

This is also why I didn't make any predictions; I knew that anything could happen, and I had no intention to pop the hubris of the Hillary camp going into the election.

https://www.wired.com...

The polls are irrelevant to real life. You gotta by momentum and the hand of fate in elections. Long story here, but you wouldn't understand.
inferno
Posts: 10,689
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11/9/2016 6:35:56 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/9/2016 6:00:45 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/9/2016 5:46:35 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
Response rates to telephone polls have dropped from 61% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2016. Without the ability to tap into cellphone polls, pollsters have to analyze a perpetually shrinking pool of data (that 0.9% response rate only includes those people with landlines, which introduces its own layer of bias), and we are now at the point where their prognostication begins to resemble the reading of tea leaves. The real predicative power lies in immensely complex, private data analysis companies which sell their results to the highest bidder, and that data is opaque to the rest of the population. IMO, this is a good thing in some ways, because the loss of faith in polls reduces the amount of sway that the corporate media has over the electorate. However, it also further entrenches our two political parties, because it raises the 'barrier to entry' when it comes to politics.

This is also why I didn't make any predictions; I knew that anything could happen, and I had no intention to pop the hubris of the Hillary camp going into the election.

https://www.wired.com...

This is accurate, but I don't think it reflects the whole picture. I think Trump spoke to a disenfranchised white working class that the Democratic party has hung out to dry since the 1990s, and they uniformly told the Democrats to go straight to hell.

Trump lost the popular vote, of course... but that doesn't matter. What matters is that in order to win, the DNC has to fundamentally reevaluate its message.

This progressive bullsh!t about "political correctness" and the like has to go. They need to start talking class conflict, and restoring the American middle class. Social issues didn't decide this election, although they did probably push Trump over the edge.

I think that people who frame this election as an effort to get back at "the nigger in the white house" or because America is filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes are uniformly misguided. That species of thought, to the extent that it continues, is going to cripple the DNC. It's not about any of that.

The rust belt is not filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes. It's filled with working class white people who are struggling to provide for their families. The economy is doing good, but it's only doing good for the people at the top. That's a real problem.

But, one thing this does mean is that working class people do what rational people do every single time: they put their interests, as they perceive them, above others' interests. That's why the Clinton campaign's "basket of deplorables" nonsense had no currency in the Rust Belt... and Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump was right that the Democrats have taken those people for granted for too long. It's shameful, but he was right.

One thing that I do take from this, though, is that the future for the DNC still looks pretty good. Elizabeth Warren types still have a shot, so does Sanders, or whoever follows in his footsteps. Young people voted blue across the board in almost every state in the country, and if they decided the election it would have gone to her by a margin of more than 300 electoral votes.

The temptation for the Republican party (and a lot of the kids here, too, I think) will be to interpret this as a mandate of greater significance than it was. Without question, Trump has a mandate but the Republican party does not. This victory is Trump's, and Trump's alone. This is not an endorsement of the GOP's platform, or anything of that kind. This is about money, and nothing more.

I just read your comments. I find it to be very contradicting. But let me remind you.
You had 2 Republican Presidents who fail to offer you policies that have left you feel jeered rather than appreciated or revered. They gave you policies that have left you at a social disadvantage. You still sound like one of those bitter, frustrated, and disenfranchised whites who cannot go beyond race, and the fact that Whites are supposed to be superior to all other races. Its your racist mindset, that is causing your people to become smaller in number across the board. Its your mindset, that causes you to be fucked over by your own kind and filled with self hatred.
So Trump wins. But Obama had 8 years and so did Bill Clinton. Both presidents are respected to this day and will be forever more. Last 2 Republicans failed. And this one will be no different. Now chew on those issues. Have a nice day. =)
YYW
Posts: 36,389
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11/9/2016 6:38:52 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/9/2016 6:35:56 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/9/2016 6:00:45 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/9/2016 5:46:35 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
Response rates to telephone polls have dropped from 61% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2016. Without the ability to tap into cellphone polls, pollsters have to analyze a perpetually shrinking pool of data (that 0.9% response rate only includes those people with landlines, which introduces its own layer of bias), and we are now at the point where their prognostication begins to resemble the reading of tea leaves. The real predicative power lies in immensely complex, private data analysis companies which sell their results to the highest bidder, and that data is opaque to the rest of the population. IMO, this is a good thing in some ways, because the loss of faith in polls reduces the amount of sway that the corporate media has over the electorate. However, it also further entrenches our two political parties, because it raises the 'barrier to entry' when it comes to politics.

This is also why I didn't make any predictions; I knew that anything could happen, and I had no intention to pop the hubris of the Hillary camp going into the election.

https://www.wired.com...

This is accurate, but I don't think it reflects the whole picture. I think Trump spoke to a disenfranchised white working class that the Democratic party has hung out to dry since the 1990s, and they uniformly told the Democrats to go straight to hell.

Trump lost the popular vote, of course... but that doesn't matter. What matters is that in order to win, the DNC has to fundamentally reevaluate its message.

This progressive bullsh!t about "political correctness" and the like has to go. They need to start talking class conflict, and restoring the American middle class. Social issues didn't decide this election, although they did probably push Trump over the edge.

I think that people who frame this election as an effort to get back at "the nigger in the white house" or because America is filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes are uniformly misguided. That species of thought, to the extent that it continues, is going to cripple the DNC. It's not about any of that.

The rust belt is not filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes. It's filled with working class white people who are struggling to provide for their families. The economy is doing good, but it's only doing good for the people at the top. That's a real problem.

But, one thing this does mean is that working class people do what rational people do every single time: they put their interests, as they perceive them, above others' interests. That's why the Clinton campaign's "basket of deplorables" nonsense had no currency in the Rust Belt... and Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump was right that the Democrats have taken those people for granted for too long. It's shameful, but he was right.

One thing that I do take from this, though, is that the future for the DNC still looks pretty good. Elizabeth Warren types still have a shot, so does Sanders, or whoever follows in his footsteps. Young people voted blue across the board in almost every state in the country, and if they decided the election it would have gone to her by a margin of more than 300 electoral votes.

The temptation for the Republican party (and a lot of the kids here, too, I think) will be to interpret this as a mandate of greater significance than it was. Without question, Trump has a mandate but the Republican party does not. This victory is Trump's, and Trump's alone. This is not an endorsement of the GOP's platform, or anything of that kind. This is about money, and nothing more.

I just read your comments. I find it to be very contradicting. But let me remind you.
You had 2 Republican Presidents who fail to offer you policies that have left you feel jeered rather than appreciated or revered. They gave you policies that have left you at a social disadvantage. You still sound like one of those bitter, frustrated, and disenfranchised whites who cannot go beyond race, and the fact that Whites are supposed to be superior to all other races. Its your racist mindset, that is causing your people to become smaller in number across the board. Its your mindset, that causes you to be fucked over by your own kind and filled with self hatred.
So Trump wins. But Obama had 8 years and so did Bill Clinton. Both presidents are respected to this day and will be forever more. Last 2 Republicans failed. And this one will be no different. Now chew on those issues. Have a nice day. =)

You must be stupid. I am not a Republican.
Tsar of DDO
Vaarka
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11/9/2016 6:39:53 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/9/2016 5:46:35 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
Response rates to telephone polls have dropped from 61% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2016. Without the ability to tap into cellphone polls, pollsters have to analyze a perpetually shrinking pool of data (that 0.9% response rate only includes those people with landlines, which introduces its own layer of bias), and we are now at the point where their prognostication begins to resemble the reading of tea leaves. The real predicative power lies in immensely complex, private data analysis companies which sell their results to the highest bidder, and that data is opaque to the rest of the population. IMO, this is a good thing in some ways, because the loss of faith in polls reduces the amount of sway that the corporate media has over the electorate. However, it also further entrenches our two political parties, because it raises the 'barrier to entry' when it comes to politics.
They were also calling people who, like me, were too young to vote. I got called about four times about it

This is also why I didn't make any predictions; I knew that anything could happen, and I had no intention to pop the hubris of the Hillary camp going into the election.

https://www.wired.com...
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

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"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
inferno
Posts: 10,689
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11/9/2016 6:40:59 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/9/2016 6:38:52 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/9/2016 6:35:56 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/9/2016 6:00:45 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/9/2016 5:46:35 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
Response rates to telephone polls have dropped from 61% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2016. Without the ability to tap into cellphone polls, pollsters have to analyze a perpetually shrinking pool of data (that 0.9% response rate only includes those people with landlines, which introduces its own layer of bias), and we are now at the point where their prognostication begins to resemble the reading of tea leaves. The real predicative power lies in immensely complex, private data analysis companies which sell their results to the highest bidder, and that data is opaque to the rest of the population. IMO, this is a good thing in some ways, because the loss of faith in polls reduces the amount of sway that the corporate media has over the electorate. However, it also further entrenches our two political parties, because it raises the 'barrier to entry' when it comes to politics.

This is also why I didn't make any predictions; I knew that anything could happen, and I had no intention to pop the hubris of the Hillary camp going into the election.

https://www.wired.com...

This is accurate, but I don't think it reflects the whole picture. I think Trump spoke to a disenfranchised white working class that the Democratic party has hung out to dry since the 1990s, and they uniformly told the Democrats to go straight to hell.

Trump lost the popular vote, of course... but that doesn't matter. What matters is that in order to win, the DNC has to fundamentally reevaluate its message.

This progressive bullsh!t about "political correctness" and the like has to go. They need to start talking class conflict, and restoring the American middle class. Social issues didn't decide this election, although they did probably push Trump over the edge.

I think that people who frame this election as an effort to get back at "the nigger in the white house" or because America is filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes are uniformly misguided. That species of thought, to the extent that it continues, is going to cripple the DNC. It's not about any of that.

The rust belt is not filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes. It's filled with working class white people who are struggling to provide for their families. The economy is doing good, but it's only doing good for the people at the top. That's a real problem.

But, one thing this does mean is that working class people do what rational people do every single time: they put their interests, as they perceive them, above others' interests. That's why the Clinton campaign's "basket of deplorables" nonsense had no currency in the Rust Belt... and Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump was right that the Democrats have taken those people for granted for too long. It's shameful, but he was right.

One thing that I do take from this, though, is that the future for the DNC still looks pretty good. Elizabeth Warren types still have a shot, so does Sanders, or whoever follows in his footsteps. Young people voted blue across the board in almost every state in the country, and if they decided the election it would have gone to her by a margin of more than 300 electoral votes.

The temptation for the Republican party (and a lot of the kids here, too, I think) will be to interpret this as a mandate of greater significance than it was. Without question, Trump has a mandate but the Republican party does not. This victory is Trump's, and Trump's alone. This is not an endorsement of the GOP's platform, or anything of that kind. This is about money, and nothing more.

I just read your comments. I find it to be very contradicting. But let me remind you.
You had 2 Republican Presidents who fail to offer you policies that have left you feel jeered rather than appreciated or revered. They gave you policies that have left you at a social disadvantage. You still sound like one of those bitter, frustrated, and disenfranchised whites who cannot go beyond race, and the fact that Whites are supposed to be superior to all other races. Its your racist mindset, that is causing your people to become smaller in number across the board. Its your mindset, that causes you to be fucked over by your own kind and filled with self hatred.
So Trump wins. But Obama had 8 years and so did Bill Clinton. Both presidents are respected to this day and will be forever more. Last 2 Republicans failed. And this one will be no different. Now chew on those issues. Have a nice day. =)

You must be stupid. I am not a Republican.

I don't care what you are. Your words and tone speak volumes about your stance about people of color.
YYW
Posts: 36,389
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11/9/2016 6:57:20 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/9/2016 6:40:59 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/9/2016 6:38:52 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/9/2016 6:35:56 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/9/2016 6:00:45 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/9/2016 5:46:35 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
Response rates to telephone polls have dropped from 61% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2016. Without the ability to tap into cellphone polls, pollsters have to analyze a perpetually shrinking pool of data (that 0.9% response rate only includes those people with landlines, which introduces its own layer of bias), and we are now at the point where their prognostication begins to resemble the reading of tea leaves. The real predicative power lies in immensely complex, private data analysis companies which sell their results to the highest bidder, and that data is opaque to the rest of the population. IMO, this is a good thing in some ways, because the loss of faith in polls reduces the amount of sway that the corporate media has over the electorate. However, it also further entrenches our two political parties, because it raises the 'barrier to entry' when it comes to politics.

This is also why I didn't make any predictions; I knew that anything could happen, and I had no intention to pop the hubris of the Hillary camp going into the election.

https://www.wired.com...

This is accurate, but I don't think it reflects the whole picture. I think Trump spoke to a disenfranchised white working class that the Democratic party has hung out to dry since the 1990s, and they uniformly told the Democrats to go straight to hell.

Trump lost the popular vote, of course... but that doesn't matter. What matters is that in order to win, the DNC has to fundamentally reevaluate its message.

This progressive bullsh!t about "political correctness" and the like has to go. They need to start talking class conflict, and restoring the American middle class. Social issues didn't decide this election, although they did probably push Trump over the edge.

I think that people who frame this election as an effort to get back at "the nigger in the white house" or because America is filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes are uniformly misguided. That species of thought, to the extent that it continues, is going to cripple the DNC. It's not about any of that.

The rust belt is not filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes. It's filled with working class white people who are struggling to provide for their families. The economy is doing good, but it's only doing good for the people at the top. That's a real problem.

But, one thing this does mean is that working class people do what rational people do every single time: they put their interests, as they perceive them, above others' interests. That's why the Clinton campaign's "basket of deplorables" nonsense had no currency in the Rust Belt... and Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump was right that the Democrats have taken those people for granted for too long. It's shameful, but he was right.

One thing that I do take from this, though, is that the future for the DNC still looks pretty good. Elizabeth Warren types still have a shot, so does Sanders, or whoever follows in his footsteps. Young people voted blue across the board in almost every state in the country, and if they decided the election it would have gone to her by a margin of more than 300 electoral votes.

The temptation for the Republican party (and a lot of the kids here, too, I think) will be to interpret this as a mandate of greater significance than it was. Without question, Trump has a mandate but the Republican party does not. This victory is Trump's, and Trump's alone. This is not an endorsement of the GOP's platform, or anything of that kind. This is about money, and nothing more.

I just read your comments. I find it to be very contradicting. But let me remind you.
You had 2 Republican Presidents who fail to offer you policies that have left you feel jeered rather than appreciated or revered. They gave you policies that have left you at a social disadvantage. You still sound like one of those bitter, frustrated, and disenfranchised whites who cannot go beyond race, and the fact that Whites are supposed to be superior to all other races. Its your racist mindset, that is causing your people to become smaller in number across the board. Its your mindset, that causes you to be fucked over by your own kind and filled with self hatred.
So Trump wins. But Obama had 8 years and so did Bill Clinton. Both presidents are respected to this day and will be forever more. Last 2 Republicans failed. And this one will be no different. Now chew on those issues. Have a nice day. =)

You must be stupid. I am not a Republican.

I don't care what you are. Your words and tone speak volumes about your stance about people of color.

Nonsense.
Tsar of DDO
kevin24018
Posts: 1,952
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11/9/2016 7:30:23 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
At 11/9/2016 6:38:52 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/9/2016 6:35:56 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/9/2016 6:00:45 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/9/2016 5:46:35 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
Response rates to telephone polls have dropped from 61% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2016. Without the ability to tap into cellphone polls, pollsters have to analyze a perpetually shrinking pool of data (that 0.9% response rate only includes those people with landlines, which introduces its own layer of bias), and we are now at the point where their prognostication begins to resemble the reading of tea leaves. The real predicative power lies in immensely complex, private data analysis companies which sell their results to the highest bidder, and that data is opaque to the rest of the population. IMO, this is a good thing in some ways, because the loss of faith in polls reduces the amount of sway that the corporate media has over the electorate. However, it also further entrenches our two political parties, because it raises the 'barrier to entry' when it comes to politics.

This is also why I didn't make any predictions; I knew that anything could happen, and I had no intention to pop the hubris of the Hillary camp going into the election.

https://www.wired.com...

This is accurate, but I don't think it reflects the whole picture. I think Trump spoke to a disenfranchised white working class that the Democratic party has hung out to dry since the 1990s, and they uniformly told the Democrats to go straight to hell.

Trump lost the popular vote, of course... but that doesn't matter. What matters is that in order to win, the DNC has to fundamentally reevaluate its message.

This progressive bullsh!t about "political correctness" and the like has to go. They need to start talking class conflict, and restoring the American middle class. Social issues didn't decide this election, although they did probably push Trump over the edge.

I think that people who frame this election as an effort to get back at "the nigger in the white house" or because America is filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes are uniformly misguided. That species of thought, to the extent that it continues, is going to cripple the DNC. It's not about any of that.

The rust belt is not filled with racists, sexists, homophobes, and xenophobes. It's filled with working class white people who are struggling to provide for their families. The economy is doing good, but it's only doing good for the people at the top. That's a real problem.

But, one thing this does mean is that working class people do what rational people do every single time: they put their interests, as they perceive them, above others' interests. That's why the Clinton campaign's "basket of deplorables" nonsense had no currency in the Rust Belt... and Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump was right that the Democrats have taken those people for granted for too long. It's shameful, but he was right.

One thing that I do take from this, though, is that the future for the DNC still looks pretty good. Elizabeth Warren types still have a shot, so does Sanders, or whoever follows in his footsteps. Young people voted blue across the board in almost every state in the country, and if they decided the election it would have gone to her by a margin of more than 300 electoral votes.

The temptation for the Republican party (and a lot of the kids here, too, I think) will be to interpret this as a mandate of greater significance than it was. Without question, Trump has a mandate but the Republican party does not. This victory is Trump's, and Trump's alone. This is not an endorsement of the GOP's platform, or anything of that kind. This is about money, and nothing more.

I just read your comments. I find it to be very contradicting. But let me remind you.
You had 2 Republican Presidents who fail to offer you policies that have left you feel jeered rather than appreciated or revered. They gave you policies that have left you at a social disadvantage. You still sound like one of those bitter, frustrated, and disenfranchised whites who cannot go beyond race, and the fact that Whites are supposed to be superior to all other races. Its your racist mindset, that is causing your people to become smaller in number across the board. Its your mindset, that causes you to be fucked over by your own kind and filled with self hatred.
So Trump wins. But Obama had 8 years and so did Bill Clinton. Both presidents are respected to this day and will be forever more. Last 2 Republicans failed. And this one will be no different. Now chew on those issues. Have a nice day. =)

You must be stupid. I am not a Republican.

he is but no need to state the obvious, and I agree with your analysis, I thought it was spot on.
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,253
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11/9/2016 7:30:59 PM
Posted: 1 month ago
Yeah, it seems like the declining reliability of polls should have been factored into people's interpretation of them. An analysis which just looks at how well polls have performed in the past, when conditions were different, is going to be predictability off. I read something on 538 talking about pollsters having to resort to new polling methods in response to changes in phone use, but it turns out that it deserved a lot more attention.