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Wake Up Call for the DNC

YYW
Posts: 36,286
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11/10/2016 2:37:10 PM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
Hillary got the popular vote but lost the electoral college because the Democratic party has been sh!tting on working class whites since 1960. The problem is not the electoral college, and it's not the voters, and it's certainly not racism. The problem is how the Democratic Party has sold itself over the last 50 years.

It wasn't always this bad. When LBJ was around he fought a war on poverty that benefitted everyone (even though Reagan destroyed that and everything else good that came out of LBJ's Great Society). Clinton (Bill) at least payed lip service to working class people ("I feel your pain."). But the basket of deplorabels voted against Hillary from the bottom, up.

Why working class whites voted against Hillary Clinton has nothing to do with race, and everything do do with class. They're uneducated people who voted for him because they're struggling to put food on the table, pay their bills, and keep their heads above water in ways that they never have before. They understand that there are fewer good jobs now, and they blame trade deals for that state of affairs (with sound justification). What few jobs are available, they realize that illegal immigrant labor is something they have to compete against.

While I can't get into the specifics here (for many reasons), what I can do is talk about one industry where illegal immigrant labor really impacts working class white people: construction. Specifically, residential construction, masonry, concrete work, iron work, and the like. These are semi-skilled positions that people can be trained to do within a few months. Illegal Immigrants are way cheaper to employ than American Citizens because even though you have to withhold their taxes (or risk major penalties), you don't so much have to carry the kinds of insurance (e.g. workers' compensation insurance) on them in the way that you do with Americans.

That's why subcontractors use them. The subcontractors that use illegal immigrant labor can submit lower bids to general/prime contractors, and they get more work because they're cheating the system. Subcontractors who play by the rules get screwed. The system is more complicated than that, but that's a part of the problem I see in the industry. Everybody in the industry from the top down knows it, too.

This is the kind of thing that the DNC has totally ignored. Catering to illegal aliens, (or undocumented workers, whatever you want to call them), as Hillary Clinton repeatedly did, is in effect telling working class Americans "we care more about their being in this country, than your ability to feed your family." That's obviously not how the DNC meant it to come across, but that's literally what it meant to the rust belt. That's one of the strongest reasons she lost.

Democrats who frame this as anything other than what it is will be making critical mistakes. Trump won, and he won because of economics. Hillary lost because of economics. It is not because of racism, sexism, homophobia, or bigotry. It's because the Democratic Party not only forgot who buttered their bread, but who baked the bread, brought it to the table, and sliced it for them.

There are important reasons why the Democratic Party made this mistake: progressive stupidity, more than anything else, is the culprit. What happened in the DNC (and I was guilty of this too, although the demographic data clearly shows me how wrong I was before, even though I have said what I am saying now before as well) was that it has created a feedback loop whereby one part of the left circularly reinforces certain ideas that are out of touch with reality. The reality is working class plight. The implication is that Hillary came across as a hypocrite to the working class when she was talking about the "rich" paying their fair share, but in the same breath talking about protecting illegals.

On that subject, there are a lot of people who think that Bernie would have won against Trump. This is something I (and most people who understand things like statistics) am highly skeptical of. Bernie may have been a better opponent, but that is only because of how weak Hillary was as a candidate. He likely still would have lost, especially in light of what I see in the Rust Belt. Trump, to his credit, was right about where his base would be.

That's the other thing, too: Trump's base is not the Republican Party's base. His base is more based on class than on anything else. That means that the Democratic Party, to be successful in the immediate (though perhaps not the long term) future, must reevaluate its appeal to working class whites. Short of that, their prospects for future elections are not nearly as good as they should be.

As an aside... this is all contingent on 18-35 year olds showing up. If 100,000 more young people from the ages of 18-35 showed up in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Florida... Hillary Clinton would be our president right now. White girls, in particular, are to blame for this.
Tsar of DDO
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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11/11/2016 3:50:24 AM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
What do you think of the brewing match between Keith Ellison and Howard Dean for DNC chair?

What do you think of Bernie Sanders not ruling out running in 2020 (he seemed a bit more driven to consider it than before)?
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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11/11/2016 3:53:08 AM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
At 11/10/2016 2:37:10 PM, YYW wrote:
There are important reasons why the Democratic Party made this mistake: progressive stupidity, more than anything else, is the culprit. What happened in the DNC (and I was guilty of this too, although the demographic data clearly shows me how wrong I was before, even though I have said what I am saying now before as well) was that it has created a feedback loop whereby one part of the left circularly reinforces certain ideas that are out of touch with reality. The reality is working class plight. The implication is that Hillary came across as a hypocrite to the working class when she was talking about the "rich" paying their fair share, but in the same breath talking about protecting illegals.

On that subject, there are a lot of people who think that Bernie would have won against Trump. This is something I (and most people who understand things like statistics) am highly skeptical of. Bernie may have been a better opponent, but that is only because of how weak Hillary was as a candidate. He likely still would have lost, especially in light of what I see in the Rust Belt. Trump, to his credit, was right about where his base would be.

That's the other thing, too: Trump's base is not the Republican Party's base. His base is more based on class than on anything else. That means that the Democratic Party, to be successful in the immediate (though perhaps not the long term) future, must reevaluate its appeal to working class whites. Short of that, their prospects for future elections are not nearly as good as they should be.

As an aside... this is all contingent on 18-35 year olds showing up. If 100,000 more young people from the ages of 18-35 showed up in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Florida... Hillary Clinton would be our president right now. White girls, in particular, are to blame for this.

This is where I think you start to contradict. Sanders was better with the working class, with whites, and young people.

Another reason I think he would have won is that he would not have lost votes the way Clinton did. Stein would have ended up getting maybe even less than a tenth of one percent, and Johnson probably would have finished with an entire percent less.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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11/11/2016 3:53:37 AM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
At 11/11/2016 3:43:22 AM, YYW wrote:
Too many people are making this about race.

It's going to continue to be about race because the country doesn't have any other way to deal with culture clashes at the moment.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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11/11/2016 3:55:23 AM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
At 11/11/2016 3:53:08 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 11/10/2016 2:37:10 PM, YYW wrote:
There are important reasons why the Democratic Party made this mistake: progressive stupidity, more than anything else, is the culprit. What happened in the DNC (and I was guilty of this too, although the demographic data clearly shows me how wrong I was before, even though I have said what I am saying now before as well) was that it has created a feedback loop whereby one part of the left circularly reinforces certain ideas that are out of touch with reality. The reality is working class plight. The implication is that Hillary came across as a hypocrite to the working class when she was talking about the "rich" paying their fair share, but in the same breath talking about protecting illegals.

On that subject, there are a lot of people who think that Bernie would have won against Trump. This is something I (and most people who understand things like statistics) am highly skeptical of. Bernie may have been a better opponent, but that is only because of how weak Hillary was as a candidate. He likely still would have lost, especially in light of what I see in the Rust Belt. Trump, to his credit, was right about where his base would be.

That's the other thing, too: Trump's base is not the Republican Party's base. His base is more based on class than on anything else. That means that the Democratic Party, to be successful in the immediate (though perhaps not the long term) future, must reevaluate its appeal to working class whites. Short of that, their prospects for future elections are not nearly as good as they should be.

As an aside... this is all contingent on 18-35 year olds showing up. If 100,000 more young people from the ages of 18-35 showed up in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Florida... Hillary Clinton would be our president right now. White girls, in particular, are to blame for this.

This is where I think you start to contradict. Sanders was better with the working class, with whites, and young people.

Another reason I think he would have won is that he would not have lost votes the way Clinton did. Stein would have ended up getting maybe even less than a tenth of one percent, and Johnson probably would have finished with an entire percent less.

It might have been closer, we wouldn't have been so fixated on leaky emails and puss_y grabbing.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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11/11/2016 3:56:54 AM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
At 11/10/2016 2:37:10 PM, YYW wrote:

As an aside... this is all contingent on 18-35 year olds showing up. If 100,000 more young people from the ages of 18-35 showed up in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Florida... Hillary Clinton would be our president right now. White girls, in particular, are to blame for this.

I think the way Hillary handled the Bernie supporters has alot to do with that.
Kynikos
Posts: 53
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11/11/2016 7:44:47 AM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
OP is correct.

DWS/Brazile obviously didn't listen to or learn from Thomas Frank at all. He called it in '04.
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,280
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11/11/2016 8:52:55 AM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
At 11/11/2016 3:50:24 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
What do you think of the brewing match between Keith Ellison and Howard Dean for DNC chair?

What do you think of Bernie Sanders not ruling out running in 2020 (he seemed a bit more driven to consider it than before)?

God, if the Democrats put a Muslim in charge in this environment, they've failed to pass even my very low bar for political competence. That's just a bad idea.

Howard Dean would be much better. They need to kick the crazy 'progressives' to the curb, without cozying up to the political establishment in the process.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
Quadrunner
Posts: 1,101
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11/11/2016 10:26:50 AM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
At 11/11/2016 3:53:37 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/11/2016 3:43:22 AM, YYW wrote:
Too many people are making this about race.

It's going to continue to be about race because the country doesn't have any other way to deal with culture clashes at the moment.

We'll see. Hopefully a big step forward comes out of this. The scapegoat is the most important roll in politics, but race has been leaned on too heavily for too long. If anyone can find something better to blame, its Trump.
Wisdom is found where the wise seek it.